Saturday Forecast

62 Comments

9:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)
No changes to the weekend forecast as an approaching warm front makes today a cloudy and cool day with a few areas of rain moving through, however this is not going to be a washed-out day and there will be rather long episodes of rain-free time for many locations. A cold front follows this by late Sunday, allowing the day to be warmer and humid ahead of it, but also bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially late-day and evening. As drier air moves in by Monday behind the cold front we still eye a disturbance that will likely set off scattered showers that day. High pressure brings fair weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain possible, but much of time rain-free. Highs 62-67 coast, 67-72 interior. Wind E 5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few episodes of showers. Increasingly humid. Lows 60-65. Wind light SE shifting to SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers to general showers favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid evening, drier overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)
A front passes by early June 28 with a shower risk, then the pattern brings building heat and mainly dry weather with just a risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms at times as June ends and July arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)
High pressure ridge dominating the weather should result in mainly dry weather and above to much above normal temperatures, but we’ll have the jet stream close enough to the north and the center of high pressure just far enough west to result in the possibility of disturbances and passing showers and storms at times, so will have to monitor for those.

62 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  4. Quizzes.

    1. Solstice literally means …
    A. Sun standing still
    B. Sun directly overhead
    C. Sun strengthening
    D. Latest sunset

    2. Which one is FALSE? Ultraviolet radiation is …
    A. Comprised of two types
    B. Partially blocked by the ozone
    C. Highest at 3 PM
    D. All of the above

    Answers later today.

  8. Per ongoing idea and short term guidance, staying with the “less rain” idea through today. We’ll end up with more tomorrow when it’s all over.

  9. Thanks TK.

    HRRR doing a good job on today’s event, a lot of poor forecasts from yesterday by the mesoscale guidance on today’s rain though. Seems we’re in one of those dry periods where it’s really “put up or shut up” in terms of getting rain. In other words, best to hedge low on your precip chances until we actually get some rain. It’s the sort of atmospheric persistence that can be hard to explain but is also hard to deny.

  10. Anyone going to be surprised if the 12z Euro or GFS contains a brief 600 dm contour on the upcoming 500 mb ridge ?

    Within recent decades, there’s been the Russia heat wave, the Europe heatwave, the 2012 southern us heatwave, an exaggerated Australian heat wave and the 95 Chicago heatwave.

    In my opinion, the northeast US has largely avoided one of those eye opening, unusual 500 mb ridges sitting over it, with heights in the 590 + dm range and a 3 to 5 day stretch of around 100F temps.

    I’m looking forward to see, in the next 3 days, if the models continue this theme and if this outlook moves forward into the days 3 thru 6 time frame on the models.

    1. This scares the crap out of me. I don’t like what I am seeing and I sure hope Tk is correct in his assessment that the heat is over done in the models.

    2. I’ve thought the same thing Tom. It got me thinking that if those 0z Euro/6z GFS predictions verify, it could be very dangerous for this part of the world. Are we equipped to handle consecutive days of 100+ heat, particularly in terms of guarding vulnerable populations? I don’t know.

      Of course, that’s not to say this time is definitely “the one”. It’s still way out there for the models. But I think one of these years we’ll have to contend with a heatwave like the ones you mentioned.

      2. I agree JpDave and wxwatcher, I wonder if the various NWS offices call their local state emergency management offices and put the bug in their ears that a major heatwave is possible in a week.

        I’d be very concerned about western and central mass, northern CT and RI and especially all of northern New England, away from the Maine coastline.

        I’ve been up there enough to know that a lot of small business and residential homes do not have air conditioning.

    1. No severe weather tomorrow. Timeline on the best chance of showers and possible thunder is after 4PM.

  12. 12z GFS still quite warm to hot Fri next weekend but not nearly as hot as 6z run. If the 12z run verifies first heat wave of 2018.

  13. So I have a question. We have seen astronomically high heat projections on 2m temps about 5 times so far this warm season. How may have verified?

    I’ll save people the trouble of trying to remember. The answer is: Zero. 🙂 Yes it will probably get hot, but those forecast temps are too high, even on the 12z run for most of the region.

  14. CMC is still plenty hot, but a little less so than the GFS.
    Here’s hoping TK is correct.

    No matter, still something to watch carefully.

  16. Misty here. Heavy enough that on occasion it might be called rain. It isn’t registering on my rain gauge.

    Creating a plan b for my grilled salmon 🙂

  17. Breaking news from the World Cup:
    Defending champion Germany is 45+ minutes away from being eliminated from this year’s finals.

  19. I believe the next few runs of ECMWF will “back off” on the magnitude of ridging. People are tending to “verify” things through forecasts lately rather than actual observations. We have to be careful from that in the world of weather. I see it done in media all the time. Climatologists never made this mistake in the past.

  20. Thanks for your trivia, Longshot, today and every time.
    Your second question triggered one of my favorite U2 songs, “Ultra Violet (Light My Way” from a great, great album, “Achtung Baby.” Listened the entire album this morning!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUD4CQT33w4

    Thanks, Longshot!

  21. Germany scored to start the second half.
    Sweden 1, Germany 1 in the 53rd minute.

    1. We’ve been misting for 2 1/2 hours, so light that nothing is even remotely
      wet. However, it will make for an UGLY baseball game!

        1. Same here. Misty and foggy and everything damp. Feels Cape Bretony. (Far eastern Nova Scotia)

  23. GO EURO! GO EURO!!!!

    It COMPLETELY shuts off the Heat!!!! There is hope after all.

    Is it real? or a glitch? A rip in the space time continuum? It stands in stark contrast
    to the GFS and CMC. Have our Canadian friends saved the day?

    I guess we don’t want to be guilty of premature elation, eh?

    1. I think on that run, there’s a day where it would be hotter in Montreal and Quebec City than Boston, NYC or Washington. And that same day, it could be 72F at the summit of mt Washington and at Logan, with a seabreeze.

      Following this on the long range and medium range is as good as seeing a projected 968 mb benchmark storm in the medium to long range and following it day to day in the winter.

        1. You bet !

          Also, on that run, at day 10, can see the next northwest impulse re-intensifying the trof and just to the east, another 500 nb ridge begins to build in the plains.

  26. Euro Monthlies are lining up with long range thoughts recently posted here. We should see the emergence of El Nino late in the year. This is reflected in the model’s mild forecast for November & December.

  27. Paltry rain amounts today, as TK indicated would happen in his forecast. Not much rain in the long range forecast. With heat on the way that could set up brush and wildfire danger. I realize that NNE has been getting some rain, but it’s been mostly dry east of Vermont. Oh well, it’s summer and it’s supposed to be hot. I did notice the days are getting shorter … just kidding. I don’t really notice that until late July.

    Sweden’s coach complained about Germany’s celebration after Kroos’s highlight reel goal (that’s an even tougher shot than Ronaldo’s free kick last week). I must say I respect Germany, but their celebrations are over the top and often in your face. They know they’re the best. Modesty is not a trait common to the German `mannschaft’ (team). They tend to be slow starters in World or European Cup tournaments. They gel and improve as the tournament progresses. They’re almost always in the top 4, and I predict that will be the case once again. What I do like about Germany is that it’s a team and not a superstar or two with some sidekicks.

  28. I finally got a job. I will be on Appledore Island off of Maine for next month being a teaching assistant for two marine environmental science courses for high school students. I be in charge of the field experiments. 🙂 I will also miss out on the hot weather like I did last year lol.

  29. Answers to Quizzes.

    1. Solstice literally means …
    A. Sun standing still
    B. Sun directly overhead
    C. Sun strengthening
    D. Latest sunset

    The answer is A.

    2. Which one is FALSE? Ultraviolet radiation is …
    A. Comprised of two types
    B. Partially blocked by the ozone
    C. Highest at 3 PM
    D. All of the above

    The answer is A.

    1. Thank Longshot. Latin was the only language that resonated with me in school so I knew the first. I clearly had no idea on the second

  31. Not one for hyperbole – I don’t ever recall on the GFS seeing 192 hour temps modeled to be so hot in SNE. Usually climo mutes these blast surface temps a bit in the medium / long range. Not 00 / 24 run.

    104-109 for modeled highs on Sunday 7/01. Including 106 in Boston and 109 in Lawrence.

    Even the ECMWF which has been running a significant cold bias its SNE inland mid range highs for the last 2 months is 100-102!

    68 on Nantucket….

  32. I agree with JMA, I’ve never seen the models print out numbers like what we’re seeing in the 8-10 day period. And the 6z GFS is even worse with an epic 7 day heat wave from this Friday to the following Thursday. Still pretty far out there, and these remain just projections, but the signal is growing.

  34. JMA/WxWatcher – I am not sure if you are saying that you think this might be possible; or are you more in agreement with TK and believe the models are somehow seeing readings that are too high. I know it is too soon to tell for certain but was just wondering about your “gut” opinion. Thank you both!

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