Monday Forecast

103 Comments

7:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)
As we start the week, there are no big changes to the outlook. A disturbance and boundary left behind last night’s low pressure passage will trigger a few showers in eastern areas today before it clears out tonight and high pressure brings fair weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday with showers and still leaning toward an earlier timing on this. We feel the first of rapidly building heat by Friday as high pressure expands into the eastern US and drives out what little cool air arrives behind Thursday’s front. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA late morning through mid afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior wetlands. Lows 48-53 interior valleys / wetlands, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly morning to mid afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler some coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30-JULY 4)
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather and this is a hot pattern for this area with mainly dry weather. Exceptions are disturbances that travel over the ridge, which will be centered to the west of New England, sometimes can bring brief thunderstorm threats. Also some coastal areas can cool at times due to sea breezes.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)
Similar pattern continues with heat and limited thunderstorm chances at first, and then a couple stronger disturbances may bring better thunderstorm chances and cut into the heat somewhat later in the period.

103 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    2. Smart that they seem to go with reasonable numbers, especially for the
      long range. It lets people watching know it’s going to get hot and as they get closer, if the models continue the same 850 mb temps, they can go higher with the temps.

    1. Hi Vicki, just saw your greeting. Returned from a camping trip in the chilly woods of Maine. It was wonderful.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Nice morning to start, but I can see clouds building already.
    If they build too soon, then it will be cloudy with a few sprinkles/light showers.
    We still need some rain.

    Collected 0.41 inches in me ole rain gauge, which was better than I expected to be
    sure. Need some more.

    Have not yet looked at the overnight model runs for the upcoming heat.

    Finally, Tom did you hit DQ?

        1. The charts are the best. I am really looking forward to having more data on them.

          No wunder running. I need to call Verizon today and that is not something I’m looking forward to. I did get a message from AcuRite the past two mornings that they were not receiving data from my PWS. It seemed fine by the time I woke up though.

    2. No, got lazy. 🙂

      But I’m still looking forward to trying the caramel with marshmallow blizzard.

      1. We went in the rain anyway. Fortunately, the line was short enough that I could wait under cover. Yes, I had the Caramel/marshmallow blizzard. I think they over did it this time, as it was extra sweet, too sweet in fact, but still yummy.

    2. If I recall correctly, both the Euro and GFS were back to a 597 dm ridge nearby.

      I agree with TK and JMA and WxWatcher that these highest numbers won’t verify, but IF the 500 mb pattern verifies, it’s going to be super hot for many days. Again, IF this verifies, I believe the typical hot spots inland are the hottest. Coast may get some unusually warm seabreezes, but 86F is better than 98F.

  7. Thanks TK
    No ways those temps happen. It will be a SWEATORAMA here as we close out June and start July.

  9. I understand that the model projected highs are very likely to be way over done.
    The question is: By How Much? 5%,10%,15%,20%,25%
    If they are 5% over cooked, then that 11 becomes 105.
    If they are 10% over cooked, then that 111 becomes 100.
    If they are 15% over cooked, then that 111 becomes 94.
    If 20% then it becomes 89
    If 25% then it becomes 83

    So pick a percentage. I would say it is
    somewhere between 7.5% and 15%. Just my thoughts.

    I SHUDDER to think if it is correct. If correct coupled with humidity, people
    will DIE. Let us hope these numbers are way OVER COOKED!!!!!!

    1. I’ll go with 7.77 to 9 percent. And you are so right that it would be very dangerous should the numbers verify

    2. Your corrections sound good to me.

      If I recall correctly in readings about fatalities in heat waves, one big factor are the night-time low temperatures. The body gets into trouble when it can’t get any time during a longer period of heat to cool off.

      1. And even the NWS is warning about HIGH over night temperatures.

        excerpt:

        25/00Z guidance suite continues to indicate potential for
        significant heat across southern New England during this time.
        Above normal temperatures anticipated, even at night.

  10. As the 00z models stand currently …….

    it’s noticeable that the core of the warmest part of the airmass is centered more over northern New England. “Going north” to cool off would have a new definition of distance in this scenario.

    1. The latest GFS runs have that 500MB ridge in the absolute worse possible
      position for heat in NE!! Brutal!! Absolute HEAT DOME!!!!

      I know all of the experts keep saying these projected high temperatures
      are way too high. However, if one looks at the 500mb and 850mb charts, then
      it presents the “possibility”, however slight, that these number could verify
      or come close to verifying. And that is the reason why I am so concerned.

      I am seriously thinking of moving my wife to a hotel or motel for the
      entire length of this upcoming heat wave as I don’t want her to be one
      of the statistics. This type of heat would kill her. With out luck the hotel
      would lose power and that is another major concern of mine. The drain on
      the power grid would be massive.

      2. Wasn’t there a creepy summer series on CBS awhile back called THE DOME? I think it was based on a novel? I hope your wife will be ok. I can’t stand intense heat either as I have no A/C but I can manage. Good luck JPD!

  11. Thanks. Will be discussing this at lunch.
    IF today’s 12Z runs continue to show these temperatures even if they are 10-15% off,
    still may do this. Waiting on 12Z runs before making a reservation. May be able
    to wait for tomorrow’s runs before striking.

  12. Yes there was. It was called Under the Dome based on Stephen King novel and it ran for three seasons.
    The thing with the heat coming its not a one day tease instead its one that looks to be here for multiple days. I feel for people who work outdoors when the weather gets that hot.

    2. I’m currently reading that book right now! I saw the series, and it was very different from the book. There were some common themes and common characters, but they two are vastly different.

  13. I understand that people are saying the models are to hot, ok fine. BUT, the fact that these models been showing 95+. Tells me its going to be Hot. I believe some records will be broken at this time. If the ingredients are there, we should look at it as a possibility. Heat starts. Friday, the flow continues on through Monday. It could very well be cut off from the north Like some are saying, but they are saying this will move through quicker than the models are showing..
    In the mean time, after this Saturday, I will be heading over to an island where I will be for the Month of July, which looks to be the warmest time for this summer. 😉 The fact that the NWS is also saying extreme heat is possible this far in advance. tells you they are looking at it.

    1. the last time this type of heat was around, we were not at the house, but at the beach for a day, where it was in the middle 80s. Pool got a work out as well lol especially when the power went out.

    2. Enjoy the coolness while the rest of us bake.

      So, the actual temperatures may not be what is being portrayed by the models, but is abundantly clear that it is going to be plenty Hot. Even JMA said that
      some location will hit 100. Sure that may not be Boston, but even so, 7 days
      of 90s will be bad, very very bad and if a couple of those days exceed 100, even more so.

      I await the 12Z runs, but I am STUCK at a mandatory training session this
      afternoon from 1PM till the end of the work day. Yeah for me!(@&*#&!@*(&#*(!

  14. Thanks, TK.

    Picked up 0.6 in Back Bay, at least according to my gauge. Trees looked happy this morning. Grass was smiling, too, as were the flowers on the Esplanade. I told them about the upcoming heat and they weren’t too thrilled about that.

  15. Very interesting discussion from the Gray, ME NWS office.
    They are clearly worried about 100 degree weather, however, they do list a number
    of factors that “could” temper the heat. They are worried none-the-less.

    The short wave trough moves out by Friday ending the threat of
    rain. Thereafter, the 00z deterministic guidance as well as a
    good portion of the latest ensemble information point toward the
    possibility of an anomalous mid level ridge setting up just to
    our south over the weekend. This would allow a plume of
    anomalous heat to push in New England for Saturday and Sunday.
    The 00z deterministic ECMWF and GFS shows highs around 100
    degrees for many southern locations in our forecast area for at
    least Sunday. However, despite relatively good agreement in
    current forecast information, there are many things that could
    temper heat and/or duration of heat here in ME and NH. This
    could be a subtle short wave trough not currently resolved 6
    days out, convective debris, the mid level ridge being flatter
    than currently advertised, etc. However, at this time we are
    expecting it to get quite hot and humid over the weekend based
    on the good model agreement. However, not quite ready to
    explicitly forecast 100 degrees anywhere as of yet.

    1. Thanks, JP Dave.

      I’ve always wondered how “anomalous” is defined in these forecasts, or in the models for that matter. It doesn’t really fit with the way we use the word in every day parlance. An anomaly is something that is rare and unusual. I don’t think 100 degree heat in Boston is rare and unusual, unless it lasts a week. Similarly, in winter, a cold spell will often show up as an anomaly. It’s not an anomaly until it’s a rare and unusual occurrence. Perhaps what we got in late December and early January would qualify as an anomaly, and also the snows in 2015. But, in my view, they’re overusing the word “anomaly.”

      2. You make a good point. But If I may use 850 mb model output]
        as an example, I think it may help.

        Here is the 6Z GFS 850MB Temperature Anomaly for Monday, 7/2.

        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018062506/gfs_T850a_neus_31.png

        When they use the word anomaly, right or wrong, they are
        referring to the departure from Average for the time period.

        In this case, it is showing 12-14 degrees above average.

        The average High for 7/2 is something like 81 or 82 degrees.
        Let’s say 81. This would be “approximately” 12C at 850 MB.
        (Take surface temp in F and add 27.5 to it and convert to C)

        The anomaly chart says 12-14 C above average. Let’s use 12

        Then we are looking at 12C (average) Plus 12C (anomaly) to get
        about 24C expected at 850MB.

        I found this definition of anomaly:

        something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected.

    1. A few minutes ago, I would have said no way, but in the last few frames,
      there appears to be a SouthWestward push of those echoes. Going to be close.

      1. Whatever this is …. it sure had some gusty winds in it. Felt great to do my walk in. Some nice resistance walking into it.

  18. I am going to be thinking those cool thoughts like tracking a winter storm for what is coming later in the week. Beautiful day today.

  19. The only comment I have is that SAK hot the nail square on the head when taking about needing to know computer model biases and limitations.

  20. Some upper nineties and low one hundreds could be achieved because of dry ground here also high dew points because of wet ground in the Mid Atlantic region.

  21. The average number of 90+ degree days for Boston is around 15. I would be curious as to the average number of 100+ degree days are. I would think a much lower number in the single digits. Does anyone here know? Just morbidly curious.

  22. If this forecast does pan out the Almanac got something right when they were predicting between July 1st – 3rd oppressively hot many 90s few 100s.

  23. Well, the 12Z GFS has backed off some on the heat.
    Still has 2 days of 100 or higher and ends the heat one day earlier.
    Let us hope we are destined for low to mid 90s and no more.

  24. As i sit waiting for the training to start, I can say that we only had a brief shower here.

  25. From Eric Fisher
    Hitting 100 degrees is pretty rare air. Since records moved to Logan in 1936, has only happened 15 times in Boston. Last time was in 2011. A few chances on the horizon this weekend/early next week. Gonna cook, regardless.

    1. I just hope it doesn’t occur 15 times for this entire summer. Even a half dozen would be horrific.

  26. Hi everyone, after a long time of mostly just reading the blog and not participating, I’m thinking that I’ll put my two cents in a little more often (somewhat driven by Vicki’s urging me to re-participate. Hugs, Vicki!), now that I got laid off from my job. In happy news, we had some absolutely wonderful rain last night, and around midnight-1am, we had a lovely thunderstorm with some decent lightning, and moderate rain. My 32 tomato plants and newly transplanted mint (helped some people on a committee remove mint from a garden in one of my town’s parks) really appreciated the drink from Mother Nature. How is everyone doing?

    1. sorry about the job loss. I am doing good. There are many people going through the same thing that you are unfortunately. Mint is an amazing plant, it allows for mojitto’s 😀 I do not like to brag , but I make a killer cranberry mojito. I use different types of rum. I like to use the pineapple rum the most. 🙂

        1. cup of freshment
          2/3 sugar ( the original generally has a 1/2) I do the half if its for my parents.
          2 cups of rum. Your choosing. So many types of rum. but I like to use Pineapple rum. It adds a nice beginning kick followed by the cranberry.
          1 1/4 lime juice, if you want it.
          1 cup of cranberry cocktail juice concentrate. thawed.
          20 ounces of sparkling water

          When making it. Mix the sugar and mint. Mash it at the bottom of a pitcher add the lime juice and the rum. stir to disolve the sugar. Mix in the thawed cranberry concentrate. Mix in 5 to cups of ice and you have a good amount for a nice tasty drink. I like to play around with the mixing of drinks. PS, not the biggest beer drinker lol. Love my mix drinks lol

      2. Hi Matt! I’d love your cranberry mojito recipe, too. Mojitos are a summertime staple for me, and I mostly make classic ones, but I also make a yummy watermelon mojito! Gosh, I feel like it was just yesterday when you were at Billerica High. Remember, I live right up the road in Chelmsford 🙂 Have you graduated from UMASS yet?

        1. yes I have graduated from umass, Im starting a teaching assistant position at the Shoals marine lab up in Maine. Which will help me possibly get another job down in Florida that I been eyeing for the fall. Thats right, you do we should try and get a group together maybe the 99’s or something like the sort later this summer.

    2. Hey, Flowergirl….GREAT to see you here. Stinks that you lost your job but I know something will come along!!!! Nice that your garden is watered. I know you have an amazing garden. I could use some mint.

      1. Hi Vicki, left you a response above. It’s beautiful out now that the rain has moved out. We got a good soaking earlier just as TK forecast.

        1. agreed, I have a whole garden full of herbs. My largest crops are the broadleaf basil, Mint, rosemarry, Thyme and summer long strawberries. I just got a blue berry bush. I gave up on dill lol, never lasts

    3. Sorry to hear about getting laid off. Hopefully, you’ll have another job opportunity soon, if that’s what you want.

      1. Thanks, Tom! I’m one of those crazy people who love to work. I’m by no means a workaholic, but I love having somewhere to go each day, I love the camaraderie of a team, and I love to accomplish goals. I’m going to a networking event in NH this evening, have a job fair at Raytheon tomorrow, and am going to Boston on Wednesday to meet with a recruiter. On top of that, I have a few recruiters aggressively looking for me, and of course, I send out resumes. I’m SO glad the heat is holding off until all my running around is over! I’m with JPD’s wife about the heat and humidity, but we’re fortunate to have central air. We used it for 2 days last week, and it made a huge difference.

        1. Wow …. good for you ! Hopefully you’ll find something you like that has a reasonable commute.

  27. From Meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    Looking over the after models for this weekend. Either the GFS is going to really score big or have a huge 5 to 10 degree error. Given the atmosphere, the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles just look more reasonable so far.

  28. Oceanair – thank you for letting me know you responded earlier. I would have missed it. I hope you had a great time. Do you fish on your camping trips? I bet fires at night were special!!

    JPD – in regard to your comment about shortcomings…..I do not think there is one of us who doesn’t have them. They do not matter…trying is all that matters.

    1. Kayak on a lake but no fishing. Floated past a large heron just feet away, and he did not fly off. The others saw the loons we hear at night. Yes, fires at night are a mesmerizing. Love all of it.

      Hope you enjoy your vacation at Humarock if you go this year.

  29. Done with training. Super heat is still an uncertainty. CMC is not buying it and ensemble heat levels well below operational runs.

    However, I am still worried about this. Will continue to monitor. 😀

  30. Late to the game, but man did we get hammered in North Reading between 1 and 2 a.m. this morning with extremely heavy rain. 2.12 inches according to NWS. Much needed.

  31. Latest NWS discussion re: Possible Heat. Still questions

    Saturday through Monday…

    Guidance continues to indicate potential for a significant heat
    wave but there are some model differences in the upper air
    pattern which could impact magnitude of the heat. ECMWF shows
    development of a subtropical low offshore which would result in
    subtle cooling aloft and take the edge off the significant heat.
    GFS has anomalous ridge moving right over SNE with a full blown
    dangerous heat wave and potential for 100 degree heat Sun/Mon.
    GGEM has a backdoor front moving through late Sun/Mon with
    cooling temps. Consensus of upper air pattern certainly favors
    heat wave next weekend into early next week, but some
    uncertainty exists with magnitude of heat. Convection threat
    will depend on how warm temps aloft get and whether we are
    capped. The risk appears low at this time given positioning of
    the subtropical ridge.

    1. 90s are great for pool parties, having one myself. Pool has warmed up as well, its in the upper 60s right now, I bet it will be in the low to mid 70s by the weekend as my pool gets full sun from 11am to 5. with partial 5 to 7 this time of year.

  33. Heard a met on TV say Thursday would probably be “washed out” I think we’ll have very little rain that day and the timing will also be fairly quick, in other words, faster than current guidance.

  35. As each day passes, it looks more and more like the upcoming heat will be tempered.
    Sure, there will likely be a few hot days, but the extreme heat previously forecasy by some models, not so much.

    Didn’t some wise forecaster warn us about those preliminary extreme high temperature numbers??? Seems to me someone did.

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