Thursday Forecast

138 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)
2 cold fronts head through the region, one during today, another by early Saturday, and they will each take the humidity down a peg, so that by the end of the coming weekend it’s noticeably more comfortable than much of this week has been. Each of these fronts will produce a shower and thunderstorm risk. Today’s risk is higher for most of the WHW forecast area, with the second front producing stronger storms west of the region late Friday which probably weaken as they get into the area and pass through during Friday night and early Saturday. Will weak that as it gets closer. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of drizzle and lingering showers early. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms midday through afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind variable becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW to W 5-10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny into afternoon then becoming partly sunny. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm west to east late. Lows 63-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Highs 77-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest coast.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31-AUGUST 4)
Ridge backs up into the East Coast again with more heat and humidity resulting. A daily opportunity for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms but much of this time will be rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)
Same overall pattern continues, starting very warm to hot then heat easing a little after that with more shower/storm chances as the ridge nudges back to the east.

138 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.

    NWS survey team heading to Upton. Confirmation of a tornado will be a formality, more interesting will be the rating. Likely an EF0 or EF1. I’d say more likely the latter (EF1), but we’ll see what the team finds.

  3. Good morning and thank you, TK.

    An employee of my son in law lives in the neighborhood where the NWS is headed. He looked out his window to see a good portion of his neighbor’s roof missing. The interesting thing is that he said he did not see any thunder or lightning.

    It’s about 7 miles from my house. We didn’t hear anything here but could have slept through. We did have one inch of rain. I was just out and there is an small area in Uxbridge by their soccer fields that has tree limbs down and a lot of leaves and limb pieces on the street.

  5. Re: Tornado without thunder and lightning.

    I “think” we had this discussion at another time and we deemed that it was, indeed, possible.

      1. I mean probably correct that we have had the discussion not that it is possible. I’m sure you are correct about that 🙂

  6. What time was this Upton Deal? I never saw anything on radar that would
    have remotely suggested this (Up to Midnight).

    1. Weather went through Sutton after midnight. I show very little rain on my chart until around 1:30/2:00 I did look at radar around 4:00 and the line seemed to be traveling south to north/northeast. Not sure if it was the same line but Upton is north/northeast of Sutton. It was not far outside of center of town. Hopkinton is northeast of that area so I would think it would have gone through where your daughter lives also. Not the tornado but the line of storms.

      I’m guessing based on what I saw at 4:00

  7. Tornado with no thunder/lightning: not at all unheard of. Concord, MA tornado in 2016 was that way.

    Time was a little after 2:30 I think. It was a long tracked, low-topped supercell type storm though (w/o thunder/lightning), trackable all the way back to Long Island Sound.

    1. Thanks WxWatcher. Explains why I had no clue.

      I hate when these events happen in the middle of the night.

      BTW, NICE call yesterday on the set up.

    2. Thank you VERY much. Interesting. I’m not sure what you mean by long-tracked. Do you mean it traveled on the ground for quite a distance. I apologize for asking a lot of questions, but this absolutely fascinates me.

      Might explain the narrow area of damage just up the street. The area I saw the damage (minimal but messy) this morning is literally a straight light just SE of where the event was in Upton.

      2. Vicki, he means that the cell was long tracked, not the tornado.
        In other words one could follow that particular cell on radar from
        somewhere around Long Island all the way through parts of
        Massachusetts.

        1. That’s what I meant – sorry that I was not clear.

          Let me try again…sorry, my head is fuzzy this morning 🙂 Can I assume that the supercell was long-tracked and would have done some damage along the way? I was thinking if that were the case, it would explain the narrow line of damage I saw this morning …. or does a supercell create a broader line and not narrow line?

          I understand that the tornado – if confirmed – would have been in a limited area.

          Does that make any sense?

          1. Yes and no.

            We could have a super cell that does absolutely no damage at all along the way, until it drops
            the tornado and once the tornado ascends to the heavens, then no more damage.

  8. The rain this week in Boston has been minimal. I had almost no rain last night. This surprised me given the proximity of the low pressure area.

    1. We have had 2.27 inches in the past 7 days. Most seems to have tracked SW to NE over us. In the past 31 days we have had 8.63 inches.

    1. Nice, thanks. That sure looks like a Radar Scope display. LOVE that app.
      IF I were up, I clearly would ave detected that. Shows up nicely.

  10. Currently, from the nhc satellite loops we’ve talked about recently, select IR loop and adjust to 60 from 24 and I believe there’s a very nice satellite loop of the cell in question traveling from Long Island, over upton and continuing northeast from there.

      1. Have to change from 24 to 60 images and of course, as time passes, that would increase to 72, then 84, etc …..

        1. Now, I’m trying to figure out what time 2:45 am est is in utc.

          I think it’s 6:45 utc which would be at the beginning of the 96 image loop. So, about to fall out of the image loop range.

          So perhaps the one at 60 images is not it.

  11. Thanks TK
    From Ryan Hanrahan with that tornado.
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1022446106964369409

    A brief explanation from Ryan on why it happened
    Last night’s Worcester County tornadoes occurred where they typically do. Right along a triple point just east of a weak mesolow that formed off the Mid Atlantic. About 200 unites of 0-1km helicity shows strong low level wind shear.

  22. The road parallel to the area I mentioned close by that had tree limbs and branches down is blocked with a barrier. The cell had to have gone through that area. I’ll take a ride in a bit if the refrigerator repair person leaves soon (hopefully) and see what I can see.

    1. My daughter who lives in Uxbridge confirmed that there was tree damage and at least one tree down with power out on West Hartford in Uxbridge which would be directly in line and less than a mile from the area I saw on Sutton Rd Uxbridge this am.

      I am thrilled there do not seem to be injuries. And I am more than delighted as close as it was it wasn’t closer. I detest storms like this at night. All of that said, I find mother nature fascinating.

          1. Our daughter in Hopkinton said they
            had strong wind gusts and rain with No Damage. 😀 Too close for comfort.

  23. Not sure if these will post as a link to click on.

    First four are West Main Street right outside of Upton Center. JPD, if you go 1/8 mile into Upton Center and take a right, that is road that takes you to Hopkinton.

    https://i.imgur.com/pvF8Q2d.jpg
    https://i.imgur.com/TOgSdn6.jpg
    https://i.imgur.com/XFO182Y.jpg
    https://i.imgur.com/BY4MQnY.jpg

    The next two are where the cell went through literally on Sutton line about 1/4 mile as crow flies from my house. It traveled from where this house is on West Hartford over to Sutton Street which is parallel to West Hartford.

    https://i.imgur.com/SlXswgX.jpg
    https://i.imgur.com/hZJLJQk.jpg

    1. We could see a line of damage along the path of the cell as well. It was fairly easy to mark a straight line between here and Upton. I am fairly sure I know where the damage would have been in Douglas by extending the line down that way.

    2. Sorry JPD – that would be take a left to head to Hopkinton. Clearly, my mind is too full between this and my new fridge leaking 🙂

      1. Well that explains why I had the wrong area!!
        I was wondering how I could mess that up so badly as
        I do know that area. In fact, my niece lives on 140 very near
        there.

    1. Sooooo glad for you. Other than an overnight little thing happening in these parts, it has been quite nice here. Today feels the hottest because the breeze is minimal but along the beach even a small breeze makes a huge difference when it is this humid.

      1. First day here without the breeze . Shopping day today beach all day tomorrow for last full day . I needed this week to do nothing after weeks of seven days a week working . Side business is unusual quite right now after 50 something jobs

  26. Thank you for sharing the photos and I know Exactly where you mean.

    From your description, it should have been” somewhere ” around this circled
    area. My daughter lives “about” 7 miles NE of there.

    https://imgur.com/a/Bbt09mS

  28. JPD – it was in the area circled in blue, direction across from Mirriam Way. Hartford Ave, High Street, is what becomes 135 and goes right by your daughter’s home.

    My daughter said the damage is worse north of these pictures on Warren Street. So whatever it was traveled a ways. We had looked at and considered buying a home on Warren Street Upton. We went to this house next and it was decided.

    https://imgur.com/a/MHgccVg

    1. Looks like the line out there means business when it comes through.

      There is lightning with it, but not a whole lot.

    3. The best thing you can do when it’s raining is to let it rain.

      Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

  34. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=taw&band=08&length=24
    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=taw&band=13&length=24

    Top link is water vapor. I focused on middle far right of the photo, the Africa coast and the Cape Verde islands. One of the healthier looking tropical waves and it’s got a decently moist atmosphere to work with.

    7 to 10 day outlook shows east coast ridge retrograding west again. I hope this pattern evolves into a different one soon, as we’re not many weeks away from the Cape Verde season.

  36. A.W. was calling for “occasional reason and drizzle” today.
    IMO a very poor forecast.

      1. After what Betts, Benintendi and Martinez lost to the rain last night, I’m guessing the Sox players won’t take the field without a clear radar.

    1. Ominous looking clouds to the south and west as I was walking down Commonwealth Avenue 10 minutes ago. Rain has begun to fall.

        1. Now Wunder is showing 0.62

          I think my station updates wunder before it updates
          the mobile app.

          1. Odd. Mine does the opposite and drives me nuts because I keep thinking I have lost communication which happened a lot at first

      2. Sutton has gotten a lot of rain. I’ve also noticed that Providence, Fitchburg, and Worcester have gotten much more than Boston. I assume most coastal communities have gotten less than the `interior.’

  44. From NWS Boston. This is no surprise with the pictures posted on twitter and radar images.
    BREAKING: Two EF-1 tornadoes confirmed in Worcester County, MA both with max winds around 100 mph. 1st tracked from Douglas-Uxbridge-Northbridge w/length 4.4 miles & max width 200 yards. 2nd was in Upton w/length of 1.0 mile & max width 100 yards. Full report coming by 5 PM.

  45. Darn. It was a tornado just up the street. No wonder we could trace its path. Emily just posted on FB

    From US National Weather Service Boston MABREAKING: Two EF-1 tornadoes confirmed in Worcester County, MA both with max winds around 100 mph. 1st tracked from Douglas-Uxbridge-Northbridge w/length 4.4 miles & max width 200 yards. 2nd was in Upton w/length of 1.0 mile & max width 100 yards. Full report coming by 5 PM. #mawx #riwx #ctwx

    1. Take care. That’s a serious storm. We don’t want you to wind up in Oz. It took Dorothy so long to get back to Kansas. In your case, you’d have to find your way back to Sutton.

    1. Closer than I thought. I thought it was just super cell damage we saw.

      And I am REALLY surprised there was never a tornado warning for either. I’m not sure if there was a thunder warning for here but do know there was one for Upton. I might understand the lack of one for an EF0 ….MIGHT. But we are talking an area of 12 or so miles.

      1. Technically it is super cell damage, if that cell will be classified as such. 🙂

  47. Heavy downpours and thunder here in Coventry, CT the past hour. Picked up a quick 0.7”. Up to 5.7” now on the month of July and 11.2” since June 1.

  48. Mark nice picks up for the Yankees getting Zack Britton to increase the strength of the bullpen and getting JA Happ.
    I could only imagine your sleeping and being woken up by the areas that were affected by the tornado. Looking at those pictures it reminds me of what I saw when I drove through Southbury and Oxford when the EF1 tornado struck back on May 15th.

    1. Just saw the headline JJ. They got Happ for Brandon Drury and a minor league infielder. Happ has had success against the Red Sox as well. I feel much better about their pitching now as we head into the playoff stretch.

        1. I’ve seen 4 times and each show was great. They were and still are one of my favorite bands.

  50. WxWatcher had quite a call yesterday when he indicated that he thought that
    the “spin up” threat was higher overnight than last Sunday!

    3. Thank you! I was just going based off of the existing synoptic setup and forecast mesoscale setup, which beared similarities to several prior tornado events which I’ve done a lot of research on. I also indicated it was still a low risk, but this time it came to be. Glad no one was hurt!

      I certainly wasn’t awake when the tornadoes happened. I still have to go back and look over the radar evolution more closely. At the time of touchdown the storm looked very impressive, but I haven’t looked through to see how fast the spin-ups happened, depth of rotation, etc. I do know that NWS had an “enhanced” severe t-storm warning in effect which mentioned a low risk for a tornado. Problem is, very few people understand how to interpret that, and even those enhanced warnings don’t trigger an emergency alert on your phone like a normal tornado warning would (at least not on mine, maybe you can configure it to). Obviously a tornado warning would’ve been preferable, especially at night.

      1. You are correct about the enhanced. I didn’t see it but would not have known what it meant. If I see tornado warning, I’m heading to basement. Otherwise, I’m watching radar for a warning.

        You may have answered a question. I have my phone set for emergency alerts. But do I have to do more for an alert for a tornado warning? Thank you!

        1. Hi Vicki- for my phone, having never played around with the settings, I know it receives flash flood and tornado warnings. I’ve gotten flash flood warnings several times, and a tornado warning ahead of the Wrentham tornado in 2015. I assume those are default settings. There may be a way to also trigger an alert for severe t-storm warnings, but I’m not sure. Also, I have an iPhone, but I think it’s the same for any smartphone.

          1. Thank you very much. I have an iPhone also. It is set for alerts but I think we may have had a flood warning and I didn’t receive an alert. I’ll look more into it and let you know if i find anything

            1. So setting government alerts will enable tornado or flash floods

              BUT I set my do not disturb for all but family at night and that will not allow alerts. Arghhhhhhhh

        1. I remember that from a book of folklore than I have. Always thought that was a weird one…

          1. My grandmother would say that unsettled weather will follow the next day. Certainly will apply in this case later today.

            1. Maybe. I don’t think anything reaches most of southeastern New England today.

    1. 75 to 86. Interesting. Makes sense to me. I think people and their bodies become accustomed to what is typical. And they are also equipped for the typical. Thank you Joshua. Helps people put others into perspective I think…or I hope

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