Saturday Forecast

72 Comments

9:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28-AUGUST 1)
As the July days slip toward their conclusion and August arrives we will go through a period of “pattern readjustment”, or basically our oscillating Atlantic ridge will finish its slip to the east and then start to come back to the west, in turn pushing the Great Lakes & Midwest trough back to the west as well after having allowed it to slip eastward. This eastward displacement of the trough is what is responsible for our current unsettled weather, i.e., the shower and thunderstorm threat as a couple fronts move slowly through the region. The final front in the series is over the area now and will take the entirety of today and this evening to finally make its way offshore, so while this is ongoing we’ll have to be on the look-out for showers and thunderstorms. No, this is not going to turn into a widespread rain event or a washed-out Saturday, but if you have outdoor plans you’ll want to keep an eye on the weather, just in case you have to “get out of the way” as a shower or storm passes through. This is not the type of day to cancel outdoor plans, but we should be aware of what can happen. After this come two quiet and summery days Sunday and Monday thanks to high pressure being in control. This also comes with somewhat lower humidity than what we have seen recently. That humidity starts to make a comeback Tuesday when a shower or storm is possible, especially late, and by Wednesday of next week we’re back in the muggy pattern with a shower and thunderstorm threat. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any storms can contain downpours, frequent lightning, and briefly gusty wind, but should not last too long at any one location. Highs 78-84 coast, 84-90 interior. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms evening. Lows 64-70. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Less humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-68. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-86, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)
Ridge dominates the East Coast again with more heat and humidity resulting. A daily opportunity for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms but much of this time will be rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)
Ridge nudges back east and takes the edge off the heat, but overall pattern still warm/humid, with occasional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms.

72 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. I have a question…..surprise 😉

    There is an individual who lives in an area of North Sutton (Wilkinsonville) who had strong thunder go over his area at about the same time the cell that spawned the tornadoes went through the area. You can draw an absolutely straight line to trace the path of the cell that spawned both tornadoes from Maple Rd in Douglas to Merriam Way and then beyond in Upton. Wilkinsonville is parallel to the Upton area but west of it.

    Could it have been the same cell over Wilkinsonville and over Douglas/Uxbridge/Northbridge?

    Being 1/4-1/2 mile from the tornadoes path in Sutton, I do not believe we had thunder and I do know the strongest wind recorded during the time period was 6 mph.

    I hope that makes sense. This is the map showing where each area is.

    https://imgur.com/a/0HMQbfi

    1. Based on the radar loop I had seen, it was probably an extension of the same “hybrid supercell” which was kind of a spiral as it was being driven by the low level circulation triggered by the shear that was present. There was very little lightning / thunder associated with that storm, which is typically the case in that set-up. The strong / damaging wind is often confined to a very small area with a very sharp cut off between wind strong enough to take out trees and almost no wind at all. It makes sense to me.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Most of us may stay dry today after all. WPC has the front already moving through eastern New England. Air mass drying out already with declining PWATs. Low level shear not great. Will be tough to get any convection in SNE. Maybe to the west and north where they have a little more shear and better lapse rates, even though they’re well behind the front. Overall, not looking very interesting. Just came down to bad frontal timing in terms of getting storms in eastern areas. Too late yesterday, too early today.

    1. Still one more trough to the west and I’ve seen this set-up produce “sneaky cells” so I had to put them in the forecast today. But TBH, I’d rather we have nothing. I’m going up to Salisbury Beach later to see one of my favorite bands play at the beach stage and then of course a nice fireworks display after. 🙂

        2. It’s most definitely Beatle Juice. I know the members, especially the drummer. Friend of my brothers’ initially, since then long time family friend and also my neighbor. 🙂

          This is the band that the former lead singer of Boston, Brad Delp, was the vocalist for until his death several years ago. The band goes on and does incredible shows still. Brad is irreplaceable, but the singers that they have used since have done a fabulous job!

          It’s a free show. If anyone’s in the area, come on by!

  8. we didn’t get to the Cape Thursday, no out to dinnernlast night or tonight thanks to this crud we’ve been having.

    1. That stinks ! It’s been a long stretch of oppressive humidity and a month of heat and / or humidity.

    2. It really does stink. It has been an awful summer for Mrs. OS and anyone who struggles with the heat and humidity.

    3. That’s lousy. And nxt. wk. again with the humidity? Our air conditioner (it’s old – came w/apt.) does good job against heat but not so good w/humidity. Hope you and Mrs. OS can get out when weather gets better.

  12. Just came in from Sat AM errands. YUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  13. I spoke with my sister in law in Atlanta last night. She said they’d had an amazingly comfortable day for summer in Atlanta because of an unusually low humidity. I checked her area on Wunder. It was 88 degrees with a 67 DP.

    It certainly is all about what you are used to 🙂

  16. NWS still talking about thunder storms. Are they blowing Smoke as they often do?
    OR just plain smoking? A bit snarky today. yes I am.

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…

    */ Highlights…

    – Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
    – Possibly strong to severe, gusty wind / heavy rain threats
    – Wet weather threats later this afternoon into early evening
    – Low clouds / dense fog hugs the S/SE coastline

    */ Discussion…

    Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
    later today. In collaboration with SPCs MARGINAL RISK of severe
    weather, any stronger to severe storms may contain embedded
    threats of heavy rain and/or strong, gusty winds.

    Evaluating the environment, marginal lapse rates, however with
    daytime heating, decent instability as a result of high dewpoint
    air remaining in place around 70 degrees. Combined with 0-6 km
    bulk shear of 35-40 kts, SW and uni-directional, there is support
    for multi-cellular thunderstorms. More likely ahead of a synoptic
    shortwave and attendant mid-level H5 trof / H3 jet streak expected
    to dig across the area towards evening with a surface reflection
    cold front. The better environment of substantive forcing aided
    by favorable venting aloft, and height falls, over N New England
    as noted by SPC with their D1 outlook. Looking at a window of
    activity around 6p.

  17. It appears there will be only a brief reprieve from the humidity Sunday Monday then dew points back into the 70’s Tuesday and going into next weekend?

    1. Yes indeed. That was indicated here over the last few days. Brief break but overall pattern is a humid one well into next month. Nothing unusual for mid to late summer around here. 🙂

  18. a lot of thunderstorms SW of Nantucket and Martha’s vielneyard. I wonder if that’s the convention we were suppose to get if the front didnt pass.

    1. That would have been there anyway. One front passed, but there is another trough to the west that has to come through tonight.

  19. 3 areas to watch for POSSIBLE storm pop-ups in the next few hours…

    1) Berkshires: Orographic lift (air moving up the mountains).

    2) Worcester Hills & Monadnocks (similar process to #1).

    3) Eastern MA, along a line that separates an east wind (Boston) from a south southwest wind (just over the interior).

    None of these are a guarantee to produce but I think at least one of them will.

      1. BTW latest hrrr shows almost nothing. are models having hard time picking up these sneaky storms you mentioned earlier?

    2. I agree other than his use of the word “unique”. It’s not really unique at all. But it could get interesting for sure.

  22. Coastal Sea breeze front. Will it fire anything?
    Who knows, but if it does, I have seen it ignite some vicious storms in the past.
    I am thinking of one in the mid-late 90s. It rocked our house like you wouldn’t believe.
    They are somewhat rare around these parts, but not unheard of….

    Here is a current map.

    https://imgur.com/a/WqC5RDc

  23. Took a last second planned trip to Cape with an upcoming overnight stay.

    Upper Cape, exits 1 thru 4 after Sagamore Bridge was fairly sunny and hot !! 88F on car.

    Now in Eastham on lower Cape and it’s cloudy, 80F, but incredibly humid, air is literally wet. Currently eating outside at Arnold’s in Eastham 🙂

        1. I was going to say that later you could stop there
          for pizza or pasta. I love their spaghetti and meatballs with bread. 😀 😀

          You are making me hungry.

          I’m just cooking some burgers and corn on the cob for supper.

  24. GFS not that it is to be trusted been indicating favorable parameters for thunderstorms in Wed Thurs time period few runs now. For now with the John Homenuk posted I posted will just keep an eye on it.

  26. I appreciate your comment TK on the tweet I posted from meteorologist John Homenuk. From your comment and his sounds like we got something to keep an eye on middle next week.

  28. it looks like TK’S 3 areas of convection he mentioned is happening at some spots. good call TK. let’s get these cells to the coast now

  29. The Cape Cod stuff was aided by outflow from the storms passing by just to the south.

    The cell in NH originated in the Monadnocks originally but has perpetuated itself to the border of Maine and is currently producing small tree debris in the air as noted by a fellow chaser. She’s on the storm right now and will be reporting to me shortly.

  30. Thunderstorm with a warning moving northwest of me. I got to say that storm when it was over the boarder in NY was more impressive looking than the storms that got warned on yesterday. It has weakened some entering western CT.

  31. My temperature gauge says it’s 81 degrees with a 68 dew point. Seems the front has moved through.

        2. Ha….that’s where I was when I asked you. We went to Ichigo Ichie for my oldests birthday. My brother lived in franklin until he passed away in 1995. His kids all went to school there and two still live there

  33. Never mind. We all came out of a hibachi restaurant that was hot because of fire. Anything would feel cooler. DP is 74

  34. Just 5 percent of the Redding fire is contained for 125 sq miles. Size of Kansas City. They were seeing tornadoes from storms in Wyoming, according to met whose name I do not have, under the big dome of heat. Fires also creating their own weather patterns …really loosely out so please don’t shoot the messenger 🙂

    Large fires throughout CA and southwest. They sure could use our prayers.

  36. This morning’s update will be posted in the 10AM hour. Will let you know when.

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