Monday Forecast

99 Comments

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)
High pressure remains off the East Coast but far enough to have allowed an upper level low pressure area to toy with the region for a few days, and in some cases result in flooding rain. This low keeps it unsettled for a few more days but each of these days will have a slightly different character, today being the coolest and most damp of the days with a continue light northeasterly fair flow, Tuesday feeling more tropical with a more southerly flow, and also a day we have to watch for what won’t be a widespread severe outbreak by any means but the possibility that a few strong storms may develop, and Wednesday will be a day that is warm but may start to feel a bit of a drop off in the humidity as the wind turns more westerly after our low pressure area, which starts out south of the region, backs up to the west and becomes part of the larger scale pattern then swings back through as a trough from west to east by the middle of the week. This sets up a nice day Thursday, which for now I will leave showers out of the forecast, only to bring them back as a risk for Friday as another disturbance approaches from the west. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog especially this morning. Isolated to scattered showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 67-72 coast, 72-77 inland. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 62-68. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with a slight risk of a few strong storms late in the day. Humid. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 inland. Wind light S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Less humid. Highs 74-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest Cape Cod.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest eastern coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)
Shower risk early August 18 then drying out as one disturbance moves out to the east. Shower risk returns August 19 as another disturbance moves in from the west. Another disturbance comes through around August 21 with a shower/thunderstorm risk as the ridge to the east remains far enough out there to allow the same pattern to continue.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)
Quick shot of cooler air comes early in this period followed by a return to heat as high pressure strengthens off the East Coast. Limited rainfall.

99 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Thanks, SAK. Good to see the instability tomorrow afternoon as Uxbridge child and family flies out early tomorrow. I’m assuming the rain totals are for only part of yesterday as they were about half of what we saw here. We received all of our rain from just two very intense, short-lived events. It was fascinating for at least me.

  11. Regarding severe weather for tomorrow, the 6Z 3KM NAM
    is showing parameters for possible tornado. I will post IF still there
    on the 12Z run. 3KM NAM pretty aggressive with the severe parameters.

    1. On the other hand, the Norton NWS office doesn’t even mention it and
      they usually mention it even when the chance is remotely low. So, I dunno.
      Will watch regardless.

    1. Basically, what happened in Lynn and Peabody yesterday morning is happening on the NJ coast and SE PA this morning.

      It just sunk SW as the upper low did and the surface front did.

      Again, tremendous rainfall rates with the moisture available in the atmosphere and the above average SST.

      1. Yes,
        And does it pin wheel back in here tomorrow or even partially
        today?
        I saw some met from some online report say
        up to 3 inches of rain today. Ha ha
        All model sim reflectivity show rather little today.

        Tomorrow is the bigger day of concern, but the 12Z NAM
        shows convection/showers lagging way behind the potent
        instability. So, not even sure about tomorrow.

        AS long as the damn front moves through and dries us out
        I could give a rat’s ass if it rains or not. We’ve had over our monthly average already this month and it’s not quite 1/2 over.

        1. Indeed …… perhaps some other brief similar features to this one down the pipeline too.

          May be some interesting monthly rain totals by months end with this particular pattern.

  13. 12Z NAM shows CAPE increasing rapidly South to North over
    SNE tomorrow morning, Exceeding 1,000 joules by 8 or 9AM.
    Hmmm….

  15. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=eus&band=08&length=24

    Can see on this watervapor loop, looking around NJ, NY area ….

    The upper low has clouds moving from SE to NW in eastern PA.

    Meanwhile, just east of the NJ coast, the Bermuda high has clouds moving from SW to NE.

    If you can visualize air at 35,000 ft being spread out like that, it has to be replaced, which it is from below and that’s tremendous lift and thus the torrential rains in NJ and SE PA.

  16. Projected mid-level lapse rates for tomorrow have fallen off. Without those, the setup for tomorrow just isn’t that interesting without a lot of shear or strong forcing. We’ll likely see garden variety popcorn showers in the afternoon. Some of those may contain small hail or brief gusty winds, with the best chance of that to the west where the air aloft is colder. Beyond that, we dry out for a couple days then look towards Friday-Saturday for the next chance of showers and storms. The pattern remains unsettled, though I agree with TK that we’re setting up for a gradual trend towards drier weather, and continued warmer than normal temps.

    2. WxWatcher, I saw your reply about the above avg SST.

      I hadn’t even thought about the long term implications, if they continue, into winter and its potential effects on storms, snow, etc. Thanks for pointing that out, something to watch in the months ahead as well.

      1. Thanks Tom, always enjoy your insights. Your students are very fortunate, I’m always impressed by your knowledge and observations on these things.

            1. Ahhhh – silly me. I was looking on here. Thank you. Off to read.

              You have Tom’s style of explaining, WxW…it is a gift

              1. I found it and actually did read it. It was later in the night so not a whole lot sinks in there. It seems it also answered the question snow answered and JPD and I responded to on this blog.

                Thank you again, WxWatcher!

  17. This certainly not good in Ocean County, NJ. Tweet from NYmetroWeather
    NOW: Serious situation ongoing in Ocean County, NJ. Widespread significant flooding has been reported with buildings taking on water &water rescues ongoing! If you live in this area, be mindful of your surroundings and do NOT drive if you do not have to!

  18. If ocean temperatures do not ever go lower than 40-45 degrees this winter, does this mean less or more snow?
    Thank you!!

      1. I’m not sure they got much below that this past winter. Snow wasn’t as much a problem this past year as the horrific flooding.

        1. It could be a factor, but so many other parameters
          go into it. Could enhance Ocean Effect snows, should
          we get arctic air with NE wind.

          Any coastal huggers would certainly be rain along
          the coastal plain. If storms track far enough to the East
          to keep winds NE to N with cold in place could actually
          enhance the snow.

          There’s just no black and white answer.

          We’ll have to wait and see. πŸ˜€

  22. The more I look at things I think if there are going to be any strong or marginal severe storms tomorrow it will be mid to late afternoon with the greatest chance in the western half of MA, central and western CT, VT and southwestern NH. Too “marine” a beginning to the day further east, and too much southerly air flow and not enough destabilization as well.

      1. Have I told you how much I love the word facata —- makes me laugh out loud no matter how many times I see it.

            1. Nope, just parroting from Mr. Andelman.
              πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

              It’s an old variation of a Yiddish word:

              FARKAKTE Edit
              farkakte
              ALTERNATIVE SPELLINGS
              vercockte, fercockded, fakakte, farkakt, farcocked, verkakte

              DEFINITIONS
              “lousy, messed up, ridiculous” (JPS) Shitty, full of crap.
              EXAMPLE SENTENCES
              “I’m trying not to crash the car on this farkakte highway.”
              LANGUAGES OF ORIGIN
              Yiddish

              ETYMOLOGY
              ׀ֿאַרקאַקט farkΓ‘kt, past participle of ׀ֿאַרקאַקן farkΓ‘kn ‘(vulgar) to shit on’

              WHO USES THIS
              Jews: Jews of diverse religious backgrounds and organizational involvements
              Non-Jews: (words that have spread outside of Jewish networks)

              REGIONS
              North America

              DICTIONARIES
              The JPS Dictionary of Jewish Words, by Joyce Eisenberg and Ellen Scolnic, (Philadelphia, 2001)

              NOTES
              Can also be used in a very literal sense to refer to one who’s needed the bathroom a lot. The Yiddish adjective farkakt takes on endings depending on the number and gender of the noun; Jewish-English “farkakte” generally has -e whenever it precedes a noun.
              .

      2. Well the actual reason is because the road and subway system in New England and Boston sucks… j/k! πŸ˜‰

    1. Well, I believe he still lives and this IS a piece of work indeed!!! πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

      Saw him once when he was broadcasting the Sports Huddle from Foxwoods
      somewhere in the mid-late 90s. πŸ˜€

      1. Oh he still lives. I was more thinking of the days I used to listen to his show on the way home from college classes in the late afternoon because my car only had “facacta” AM radio. πŸ˜›

  25. Thank you, TK.

    Say a prayer for the Queen of Soul; Aretha Franklin. She is gravely ill. I could listen to her voice all day long. Ella Fitzgerald, Billie Holliday, Carol King, and Stevie Nicks are round out my top 5 female voices.

    Someone mentioned Calling All Sports. I’ve been a sports radio junkie since the early days of Calling All Sports. Remember Guy Mainella? When I was just a kid I’d listen to WBZ’s path-breaking program. When I lived in Europe there was no sports on the radio. Well, you’d hear soccer scores and that’s about it. By the way, radio in Europe is dreadfully boring regardless of the station, the exceptions being BBC World Service and BBC Radio 4 which I picked up on the long wave in my car (yes, my car radio had long wave). At the end of each hour they’d have a shipping report on Radio 4, which I, was a weather junkie, absolutely loved. They still broadcast it on long wave. You’ll notice the prevailing westerlies have returned after a very long absence. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bfkmh9

    1. Longwave..BBC 4 is still on the air at 198 khz. I’ve heard it many times here in Hingham (and when I lived in Winthrop). Some other big signals were 162 (France), 183 (Germany) and 252 (Ireland). Some of these are no longer on the air.

  26. If anyone is listening to FM radio right and thinks something is wrong (lots of weird stations) that’s cause there is an eskip opening to Iowa and Wisconsin. Just heard WMGN 98.1 Madison WI

    1. I was listening to 105.7 The Hawk from the Jersey Shore recently (as clear as a bell) instead of Loren and Wally on WROR due to eskip.

      1. Captain…that actually would probably be tropo ducting due to the distance. E skip is usually 500 miles to 1500 miles…although I have seen it as low as 350 miles. Where are you again?

          1. Perfect spot for coastal ducting. Even with portable or car radio when conditions are right you might get all the way down to the Delmarva. Further with an good outdoor antenna.
            Today’s e skip event was about 90 minutes long…just ended about 15 minutes ago…mostly Iowa.

              1. Eskip is (at this time) not predictable. The season usually starts in early May and ends sometime in August. There sometimes is shorter season in December. When analog TV was on low VHF you would get the signs of skip early as it builds up the dial (starting first in the CB bands-27mhz-then heading up to into FM and sometimes beyond). The best thing to do is watch this map https://www.dxmaps.com/spots/mapg.php. I can fill you in on the details if you like…TK can give you my email address. You could also follow this page (Or join) https://www.facebook.com/groups/wtfda/?multi_permalinks=1225235697616255&notif_id=1534201171320814&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic

  28. Just tried 98.1 FM and got “98.1 Cat Country” (“If You’re Going Through Hell” by Rodney Atkins) from Providence with its transmitter in New Bedford. Maybe I am too close, Taunton to New Beige., to hear Iowa and Wisconsin.

    In college, I had a show on the campus radio station. The station’s 400-watt transmitter was on the roof of the campus’s graduate residence hall. Whether fact or fiction, I never found out, but, we were told that our programming came through the appliances (electric can openers, etc) in that building’s student dorms!!! πŸ™‚

      1. 91 Rock…Nashville’s Rock Alternative!!! I also was the Sports Director and did play-by-play for the baseball team.

            1. Did a little web search and then went to the FCC Database. They are classical now and the new calls are WFCL. Looks like they switched sometime in 2011. I’m still looking to log them πŸ™‚

    2. Yes..too close for skip on that frequency unless it’s a super strong (once in a decade) opening. When skip or trop is around just tune to open frequencies first and then go from there. 88.1 is a good start on the low end or 92.1 might be another-not sure if WLNG is heard down there or not.

      1. Thanks for all of the great info, Keith! Fascinating! I love listening to radio stations from many different countries via live-streaming on the Internet!

        1. I do that too. Still listen to Shortwave too (as well as other bands too). Also a scanner enthusiast. My shack looks like Mission Control πŸ™‚

          1. I have several radios in my house, including an old (1963) Telefunken Allegro. It’s German and looks like a radio from the 1930s. It has shortwave and I still listen to radio broadcasts from overseas via shortwave. My interest in radio started when I would listen to stations in remote or hermetically sealed off countries, like Albania in the 1970s and 80s, Mongolia (also during that period), and North Korea. Radio Tirana used to transmit propaganda like no other. Every day I’d hear something like this: “The weather in Tirana is beautiful, as the happy workers fulfill their duties as patriotic comrades, meeting the targets laid out for them in the Party’s 5-year plan. Acting as one against global imperialists [Albania was paranoid at the time, and basically considered everyone imperialist], they have created an independent socialist Albania, devoid of the vestiges of capitalism …”

            Unfortunately, North Korea still broadcasts the same kind of Stalinist propaganda. And no, it has not changed its tune one iota in recent months. If anything, it has ramped up the propaganda machine.

            1. I was an avid listener of Radio Moscow back in the 70s and early 80s. North Korea does not propagate well these days and I haven’t heard them maybe 15 years. Radio Havana comes in well on many frequencies and still has an anti U.S. platform but nothing like before. It also plays a lot of great music. A lot of the giants of Shortwave (Deutsche Welle, Radio Netherlands, Radio Austrailia, Radio Canada) have left SW and only do streaming these days.

  30. I haven’t experienced that skip with FM very many times. Far more with AM. I used to listen to 1190AM WOWO radio out of Indiana many nights heading back into the office in the mid 1990s when I worked some split shifts at the private weather company. They had an awesome play list.

    1. Nightime skip on MW is via the F layer of the upper atmosphere (when the daytime D layer disappears). Incredible distances can had on MW at night (I’ve logged most countries in Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and good chunk of South America at night).

  32. Indeed, Keith one can receive a lot of stations on MW.

    Also, on road trips – like the one I took to Minnesota – I loved listening to the radio from faraway places, even faraway places here in the U.S.

    As for Voice of Korea, I had more luck tuning them in on shortwave when I was in Europe for periodic trips visiting my children in the 2000s. I have a friend in the Midwest who says he still can tune in VoK from time to time. The last time I heard VoK on shortwave here in Boston was several years ago. My go to information spot for current NK propaganda is Rodong Sinmun: http://www.rodong.rep.kp/en/

    I do this not because I’m a nut. I do it because I studied centrally planned economies and communist dictatorships in the 1980s and wrote my master’s thesis on the transition of planned to market economies. This was during the most transformative year of my lifetime: 1989. I spent a month in Czechoslovakia and Hungary, gathering information from officially condoned economists and unofficial dissidents. I left hand-written and typed messages with Vaclav Havel – later the president of Czechoslovakia. I delivered them to his door, though I’m not sure if he ever received them because his home was surrounded by so-called people’s militia; what the Communists called the “iron fist of the working class.” Needless to say, Havel was no friend of the Communists. He spent years in prison for the crime of being a playwright, a satirist, the son of a bourgeois small land-owner.

  33. Wow – what an incredibly interesting blog tonight! First of all – belated-by-a-day shoutout to Vicki. I’m so busy lately I only get caught up once every other day but saw your post from yesterday about your friend named Kimball. I have a dear friend who knows the Kimballs of Kimballs Farm well – I’ll ask if part of all of the family lived in Harvard. And I love that you get how much has changed in these metro west towns – I imagine the difference is even greater in Belmont than in Concord.

    I also wanted to send my love to my fellow radio folk – I am an FCC certified DJ and in high school was the GM of WIQH Concord – 88.3 FM. The year I headed up the station we went from 10 watts to 100 watts – which was mindblowing for me at the time! I also hosted a classic rock show – still to this day miss spinning the vinyl!

    1. Wow…pretty cool. I have logged WIQH on only a couple of occasions due to the proximity of WRPS in Rockland.

  34. Good morning,

    Fascinating discussion on Eskip!

    I used to dabble in that. 1st with old AM radio, then with FM and TV.

    Radio from Millis, I used to log all of the stations.
    My fav was WKBW in Buffalo, NY.
    Picked up TK’s Ft, Wayne, IN station,
    WLS in Chicao, KDKA in Pittsburg
    San Antonio
    Denver
    St. Louis

    You name it.

    FM, I used to get Portland, Me.

    But the weirdest one was with TV from Falmouth on the Cpae.

    Picked up a UFR stattion from Maryland. It freaked me out.

    But my dabbling does not compare to all of you.

  35. Has anyone seen a fall weather outlook? Will it be hot like last year or a typical cool fall weather?

    1. The early idea is a September that is warmer than average but with 1 or 2 significant cool shots, October and November are mild but with abbreviated cool spells. A lot of what happens later in Autumn will be determined by whether or not El Nino is early onset.

      FWIW NOAA’s long range update is 2 days away.

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