Thursday Forecast

113 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)
Heat makes a quick return today on a light northwesterly air flow and there may just enough instability in the atmosphere to kick off an isolated shower or thunderstorm, though the risk for any one region is very slight. A disturbance will cross the region Friday into Saturday with a couple opportunities for showers and storms. And that previously-advertised potential of a cooler shot of air comes to fruition Sunday and Monday, our first delivery of drier air from Canada in a while, before it warms back up a bit by the end of the period. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 64-70. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple episodes of scattered to general showers and thunderstorms possible. Any thunderstorm can be strong especially well west of Boston. Highs 76-84. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms can be strong. Lows 64-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms with the chance decreasing from north to south. Highs 75-83. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)
Warming back up during this period. A front may bring a few showers and thunderstorms August 22 with another threat around August 25.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)
Late August looks warmer than average, humid, and with a few additional shower and thunderstorm opportunities, though not as wet as the first half of the month was.

113 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. Can’t really notice it looking overhead.

      Funny thing, I could smell smoke walking in from the parking lot.
      I assume there was a fire somewhere near the area.

    2. Complete haze here but no idea if that is smoke. I know my eyes have been bothering me for several days. I rarely use eye drops but have had to a couple of times each day.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    IMHO, the instability and the helicity generally don’t line up.
    Also, it appears that a tornado risk, IF any at all, would be way out West and Northwest of our area and no where near the coastal plain. It also should be pointed out that so far
    the SREF says NO on a tornado risk. Looking at radar sims, the coastal plain
    may see ZILCH or close to it in regards to rainfall. BAD timing for the coast, that’s
    for sure.

    We shall see how it plays out.

      1. Still needs to be watched, but to me anyway, the threat has
        lessened. The 0Z WRF Vorticity Generation Parameter has come
        down some over the area as well.

        I agree with JJ. When the SREF starts painting areas of concern
        in their significant tornado ingredients chart, then I take
        serious notice. So Far, ZILCH there.

  6. Damn Red Sox lost last night! What a bunch of LOSERS!! 😀 😀 😀

    86-36, a winning record of .704 or winning 70.4% of their games.
    That is astounding!!! GO SOX!!!

  8. Thanks TK and feel better.
    SPC still maintains marginal risk for tomorrow.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    From NWS Boston/Norton
    Models indicate a strengthening low level jet Fri evening which will increase low level shear and helicity so a few strong to severe storms possible with potential for rotation. Given high dewpoints in the 70s and low LCLs this will have to be watched closely.

  9. NWS Upton, NY take for tomorrow.
    A cluster of tstms associated with a prefrontal trof are expected to roll across the area Fri ngt. It looks like the main challenge will be whether the forcing from ongoing convection along with the trof will be sufficient to keep the tstms robust as they encounter increasing cin. The NAM suggests the answer is yes, and based on the model`s recent track record with tstms recently, this soln has been accepted. Some svr activity cannot be ruled out with strong sly bl flow, llvl veering and cape over 2000. Progged lcls are blw 1000 ft

  10. LOL!!!
    Some of it I could figure out. For example svr is severe sly southerly bl no clue llvl is low level.

    2. I think txting with the kids helped me but I have no idea what “soln” is.

      Let’s see “strong sly bl flow” – strong southerly blowing flow – heaven knows 😉

  14. Interesting,

    The 12z 2KM NAM is out and here is the sounding for 5Z Saturday or 1 AM.
    This sound is for Boston or very very close to Boston. It shows a tornado threat.

    https://imgur.com/a/vCXizXF

    Now, the usual caveat. Since we have been looking at these soundings, they Almost always tend to over do it. Still, the situation must be monitored.

    Waiting for WxWatcher to chime in on this as he is usually very tuned in to this
    kind of situation.

    I must say, I won’t really be concerned until/unless the SREF comes on board with this.

  15. Thanks TK. Hope you feel better soon!

    I’m checking in from a new home today: Albany, NY. I’ll be starting grad school out here in a week or so, and this will be my primary home for at least the next couple years. But I’ll still be keeping an eye on things in SNE 🙂

    As for tomorrow… I think it bears watching for the same sort of thing we’ve seen a few times already this summer. The highest risk is likely well west of Boston, as TK has in his forecast, but I do think a more isolated threat exists all the way to the coast. Main threats are for wind damage and a brief tornado or two. I wouldn’t be surprised if SPC upgrades part of the region to a slight risk. There could be multiple rounds and regions of activity as well, any time from mid-afternoon onward into the late evening. I never trust these warm front days to behave in the summer. Usually some surprises are involved. It will not be a widespread severe weather event, but it’s that low risk for a localized high impact event that you have to watch for.

    1. Thank you WxWatcher. Exactly the type of post I was hoping you would
      place on the blog.

      All eyes will be on the radars, once again.

  16. Harvey had the nerve (I will NOT watch P.G on channel 4) to say that the humidity
    would be down slightly today and a little easier to take. BULL SHIT!!!!!

    Dew points are in the low 70s all across SNE, including 70 at Logan and 72 at Norwood.

    !)@(&#(&!@*()#&!()@&*#()!&*@()#&!*()@&#*()!&@#()*!@()#*!()@&*#(!@*)(#*!()@#&)(!&@#*()&!()@#*()!*@#()&*!()@#&*()!@&#()*!@()#*()!@*#()!*@()#*)(*!)@(

  18. What a haze covering the sky – even the clouds are behind it. I’m assuming – perhaps incorrectly – that it is smoke from the west and Canada.

    2. Tiz mostly smoke. Same week last year we had it too. 🙂

      We still get some pollution from the Midwest, but far less than previously. Note there are fewer thickly hazy summer days than there were in the 1970s through 1990s. What comes across the Pacific however is a different story. Still a lot more polluting of air, by comparison, in parts of Asia.

    1. Very sad indeed. The friend who shared the air quality link I posted above said Seattles air is worse than Beijing’s.

      2. And where do you think Seattle’s air pollution comes from? Its sure not all those coal fired plants in the pacific northwest. There’s very few of those.
        China exports more than cheap clothes.

          1. Ah. Well, fire is fire. It’s actually good for the forest.
            In some cases the forest service in the US lets a burn continue if they are able to and no one is in harms way. Lighting starts a lot of fires. It’s a natural process. We’ve just built houses and towns in areas of the forest and high chaparral that burned on a regular basis since the earth was formed.

            2. It’s kind of when you build a house on the coast here, and wonder why water is coming into your living room.

  21. Concord NH’s dp fell 4F last hour to 64F and a gusty N wind is being reported.

    Can some of that dry air settle far enough south into northern MA, maybe even Boston, this evening …… to give temps a chance to fall into the 60s tonight, before the tropical humidity ultimately returns tomorrow ??

  23. I was just to post that. In their discussion for the areas in slight risk mentioning the possibility of isolated strong damaging winds and a tornado or two. It sounds the same to what WXwatcher posted earlier.

  24. A couple tweets from meteorologist John Homenuk for tomorrow
    How tonight’s convection behaves will have a big impact on Friday’s severe weather potential in the Northeast. There has been a subtle trend toward less AM cloud cover and more instability. We will have to monitor later today to see how things are evolving.

    3km NAM simulated inferred satellite for Fri
    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1030138408751058948

  25. If that particular model verifies there is going to be some activity to track late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

  27. Waiting for the latest SREF run but so far not picking up on an area where a tornado is possible tomorrow even though SPC mentions or tornado or two possible in slight risk area. I would say right now in the slight risk area when the probabilities come out tomorrow 15% wind 2% tornado.

  28. It’s interesting ……..

    In terms of sensible weather, what the weather’s like, next week might make one think that a cool, Canadian flow of air has arrived.

    Not really ……

    It’s more that the next few high pressure areas go north of us and then out into the Gulf of Maine, turning the sfc wind NE, which will help hold temps in the 70s.

    Aloft, no trof really comes through here. Instead, it sets up with WSW flow aloft, probably stringing out pressures to our south and possibly sending bouts of clouds, wet weather into southernmost New England.

    so, for the important day to day weather, next week overall will be cooler, but it’s not because the jet stream is blasting down over us out of Canada.

  30. From what I’m seeing on the 12z hi-res guidance, I think it’s provided an affirmation that the greatest risk tomorrow is well to the west of Boston, with the threat much more isolated closer to the coast. East of the slight risk (which I like the placement of), the question will be whether or not there’s any convection at all. If so, then a low risk for severe weather still exists, but it’s very possible little or nothing occurs from Worcester County eastwards. Further west than that, it’s a higher risk, with more widespread convection likely and an associated higher severe weather threat with better shear/instability overlap.

    2. I really think Logan’s dp will eventually drop towards 60F for a bit before it soars again tomorrow afternoon.

  34. Bullet points for tomorrow from NWS Boston/Norton
    * Potential for strong/severe storms later Fri into Fri evening
    * Localized wind damage/flash flooding possible
    Isolated short-lived tornado also possible

    As we have said so many times this summer not a widespread event but some towns could see a nasty storm tomorrow afternoon and evening.

  35. I am outside because I am not a fan of being in

    I challenge anyone who loves the heat / humidity to turn his or her AC off and no pool for remainder of summer 😈

    2. No AC here, and the only pool I have is my bathtub or maybe that pool of sweat I have that drips onto the floor after I’ve done my morning run. The humidity has been astounding this year.

      I’m officially done with summer, at least this summer. But, I know it’s not done with me. No, Old Man Summer has got quite a few jabs and left hooks in store for me.

      1. Spoken from those who actually know what it is like.

        I’ll wait to see if any of those who have both will respond. And I will want a form of proof 🙂

  36. For the people who love the heat and humidity my question is do you enjoy paying higher electric bills to keep your place cool.

    2. It is what it is . I work outdoors so I wave to come home to a cool house & same with summer . I have a 1 zone house . The upstairs does not cool well & has been tough this summer with the ceiling fan just taking the edge off slightly. First time in 10 yrs here but air conditioner is up there now & it’s beautiful. So I guess it’s higher bill for comfort right

      1. I actually meant to give you a semi pass from the challenge. I figured you can keep either ac or pool since you work outside all day 🙂

        And it is what it is. Although I have the sense we are being fleeced by Nat Grid. If cost just went up in this heat I would. Of complain. I’m looking into it. We do have two zones.

        1. Pool filter runs non stop & central air has been on a lot . With the first night tonight with the bedroom air conditioner on I just shut off the central air . Like I said the central is horrible upstairs but this summer the worst. People refer my house to a mest locker on the first floor

        1. Oh and one very good reason not to move to Austin. I would not do well with day in and day out the same. Very mundane 😉

          1. Ok let me guess. Can you tell I’m amusing myself. 1983, 1988, one in the past 10-15 years but by then my mind gave up on actual dates

          2. I’d go to Texas to storm chase but you couldn’t PAY me to live in that state. Sorry. 🙂

            1. Now for that I’d go with you. I’d love to storm chase at some point. As far as living there, you already know I am right with you.

  39. Tough loss Philip with the Yankees. Bases loaded no outs bottom 9th down to two and can’t get a single run in.

    1. I don’t think the Yankees can catch the Red Sox. But, the Yankees are set up well for the play-in game. I say that because of their deep bullpen. The Red Sox bullpen, on the other hand, has me a little worried about the post-season. Houston won it all without a good bullpen, but that is very unusual.

  40. Joshua the bullpen been a little shaky. Britton has had his struggles although today did nice job getting a one two three inning today. Chapman past few times your holding your breath and blew the save against the Red Sox. Chad Green not the same pitcher he was out of the bullpen last year. There not catching the Red Sox unless there is a major collapse. Yankees need to keep winning to make sure the wild card game is at Yankee Stadium. Currently they have a three game lead over Oakland and I am so rooting the Astros who are up two games in AL West win the west. I don’t want to see Verlander in a one game playoff.

  41. Boston’s record of 30 days at 90 or greater was set in 1983, probably the hottest summer any of us will see in our lifetime.

    2. Though I lived overseas then I was in Boston that summer from July 5th to September 5th and I do remember it being very hot at times. I recall a day game at Fenway that summer, I believe against Milwaukee (they were good that year, the Red Sox were not). I was there to see Yaz for the last time. He delivered in a big way, with a 3 run homer against Don Sutton. I was pretty much cooking in the bleachers behind the visitor bullpen. Hazy, hot, and humid. I didn’t mind then. I was young. The ball landed in the right field grandstand, fairly close to where I was sitting, though there was an open gap between the bleachers and grandstand.

      1. It stands out. We didn’t have AC. I was in first trimester of pregnancy with my son. And it was a bit of a risk pregnancy so as sick as the heat made me feel, I knew it meant the baby was fine so welcomed if.

        Too much info? Sorry 🙁

      2. That particular summer was hot from start to finish with very few cooler interludes.

        Even September was blazing with Logan hitting 99 two times, the final one on the next-to-last day of astronomical summer!

    1. It would be much more exciting if it counted. Pre-season *yawn* … But I’ll probably put it on with no volume while I listen to tunes. My brother is at the game. Season tix.

  43. That’s difficult, Vicki. Being pregnant when it’s hot and humid outside. My first child was born in late June in the Netherlands. Normally, it’s not hot there, but it was that year, from late May through June. The last few weeks were hard for my ex-wife.

    1. You are so kind, Joshua. It was hard but since I knew that as long as I felt sick all was ok, I actually welcomed it.

      Was that in 1983 in the Netherlands also?

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