Sunday Forecast

86 Comments

7:49AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)
High pressure will be in control of the weather throughout this period, which starts out comfortably warm and turns out hot and more humid, only to see an easing of heat and humidity by Thursday as a cold front comes through, possibly with no shower or thunderstorm activity at all. We’ll continue to see some smoke in the high altitudes from wildfires in the Canadian Rockies and western US at times. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine again filtered at times by some high altitude smoke. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny and hazy. Humid. Highs 84-93. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Hazy sunshine & a few clouds. Very humid. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs from the middle to upper 80s South Coast, 90s elsewhere.
THURSDAY: Slight shower risk early, otherwise partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
High pressure moves across eastern Canada and northern New England on the final day of August which will be a fair and somewhat cooler day with lower humidity. Labor Day Weekend September 1-3 currently looks like it will not be without the threat of a few showers but should be mostly rain-free with a gradual return to warmer and more humid weather. Hotter weather by September 4 as high pressure aloft is more in control again.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
This period looks variable in temperature as a boundary may be nearby, possibly starting out very warm to hot and humid, then featuring somewhat of a cool down as high pressure to the south gives way to high pressure nosing out of Canada, with the boundary in between eventually being pushed southward. Hard to know this far in advance when threats of unsettled weather will be.

86 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK

    Sure looks like a spectacular Sunday morning. When my eyes actually open and focus, I’ll be able to tell a bit better 😉

    1. It sure is. Thank you. All in all, I think you’ve linked this song quite often this summer. I should have thought to keep track

  5. School Districts starting school this week will be having early dismissals. A smart idea in the short term but a stupid idea to have schools begin in August in the first place.

    I would be curious as to how many districts in this state have August sessions.

    1. Sutton starts Wednesday. Uxbridge took two teacher professional days that were normally during the year and moved them to this week so they could start after Labor Day. But with the shift in seasons, the start of school no longer means fall clothes and letter sweaters. Did I just date myself

    2. I’m so happy I am not in school. I would start a rebellion IF my school
      district made us go back to school in August! DISGUSTING!!!!

    1. Now that both sets of kids have returned from Disney and Charleston, I’m ready to track something. We have had late storms…Gloria. But I have no idea how that summer compared to this.

  7. I’m glad, Philip, you brought up the topic of districts doing early releases.

    I was irritated yesterday with wbz in their reporting of the story yesterday. At the end of the story, they mentioned they had put in a call for comment from Lawrence public schools.

    Comment ??? Why ??? No comment needed.

    Wait til Tuesday and Wednesday and everyone feels what is coming.

    Smart decision by any district, whose infrastructure can’t handle this kind of heat to early release.

    This isn’t more typical late August warmth, where it touches 86 – 90 for an hour or 2 then starts cooling off quickly in the early evening.

    By the way, notice how Thursday’s projected temps have been coming up the last 24 hrs or so. Thankful, we just happen to be starting after Labor Day this year.

    1. I didn’t see the comments on BZ. Agree Tom. Makes no sense at all.

      Do you typically start before Labor Day Tom? If so, what did they change?

        1. Interesting. Thank you. Didn’t seem to stop Sutton from opening this week. Their possible last day is June 10

          1. Uxbridge and you both have June 14 for possible last day. And Uxbridge eliminated 2 professional days. I will never figure this out.

  9. Looks like a heatwave is coming to these parts. Probably the last one this year.

    As far as El Nino’s impact this winter, historically it’s a mixed bag. Doesn’t necessarily translate into a mild winter in New England.

    McCain’s passing unsettled me. I knew it was coming, but the finality of it is hard to fathom. I liked reading the tributes: From Palin to Obama, all conveyed the essence of McCain. I liked this one because it was personal:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/26/opinion/john-mccain-death-tribute.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    1. I cannot read this without a subscription. I’ll see if I can find it elsewhere

      It unsettled me as well. I’ll definifely off kilter today.

  10. I think the European model might be a touch aggressive i.e. too progressive with a short wave next week. It has a cooler airmass arriving on Sep 4 when I think it will be quite hot. I’m used to seeing this model be the slower one with the GFS more progressive in this set-up but they reversed rolls.

    ‘Course *I* might be the one out to lunch here. 😉

  11. Somebody asked a question on a FB page I am a co-admin on today about how SST’s can be below normal with such a hot summer. This is a good opportunity to explain the regional aspect of the relationship between temperature patterns in both air and ocean water by specific example.

    Without getting technical, we’ve seen a warm north Atlantic and a cooler tropical belt as far as water temps go. These types of patterns occur regularly and cyclically, though these are not time-symmetrical. Sometimes you get more of one, less of another, or vice-versa, as determined by the global interaction of all the air/water patterns.

    I won’t call the person silly for asking the question. What’s to learn here is that just because it’s warm here doesn’t mean it’s warm everywhere. More specifically, we’ve had a warm (and wet) August because of the large scale global circulation placing a Bermuda High in the right place to give us those conditions much of the month. If you look closely, this high was a bit north of the long term average Bermuda High position, the reason for this being the relative warmth being more to the north while southern waters were cooler, relative to normal. This ties into our lack of good cool/dry interludes with NW wind and very low dewpoints. We had one on Thursday, but they have been essentially absent otherwise. With the large scale pattern shifted slightly north of its mean position, the surface highs have not been diving through the Great Lakes but wobbling eastward, their centers passing north of New England, so our “cooler/drier” weather has often been due to a northeast to east wind around the circulation of these highs, which then sink southeastward and turn our surface winds more to the south with time, resulting in the return of humidity and warmth. This is exactly what is going to take place from August 30 through Labor Day Weekend.

    1. This is exactly what I’ve been noting. But TFA’s forecast is the same every year. At least TOFA changes it up. 😉

  13. One time The Farmers’ Almanac will be right. They did get two things right with regards to storm last winter. The early January Nor’easter or as the media called it bomb cyclone for a big headline and Presidents’ Day weekend calling for 6 or more inches of snow. There not right 80% accurate as they claim. When they do get things right I just call it a lucky guess.

    1. The northeaster forecast and Presidents’ Day weekend were completely BY CHANCE (or luck). Their forecasts are written like horoscopes. They can be verified far too easily, at least as being “close enough”.

      There is also no way to tell they will be right this season. That forecast was made before several major puzzle pieces are even known, one of them being the weather pattern of October & November.

  14. I don’t think it fair to have a top one summer day but if there were such a thing, to me, this would be it

      1. Ah ha. The grandfather factor. Works every time. Wished him a happy day on FB but you can never have too many happy birthday wishes. Have a perfect day, Nate!

  15. I totally agree with you on them being lucky. If you look at the course of the winter there more wrong than right. There predicting teeth chattering cold by the middle of February here with an artic front and widespread snow showers/squalls along and ahead of the front. If They get that one thing right they will run with it when the other predictions for the winter are wrong. That does not come anywhere close to the 80% accuracy they claim.

    1. They are definitely not 80% right. More like 40-60%, because that’s about how often you guess a coin flip correctly. 🙂

  18. Sox losing 5-0. This would make 3 losses in a row and 5 out of 7 losses.
    Not good.

    Yanks were only 7 behind. Yanks ahead of Baltimore 5-1.
    This would cut the sox lead to 6 down from 10. Again, NOT GOOD.

    They best come back to life soon or the YANKS WILL catch up to them.

    The Yankees seem to be putting it together now.

    1. We may have to, as usual, rely on the Patriots to bring a World Championship, and that may be iffy based on Friday’s preseason game. Both sides of the ball were just awful. Not to mention Edelman’s 4 game suspension right off the bat.

      As for the Red Sox, might have known this incredible run was waaay too good to be true. Not to mention Chris Sale now on the shelf for the rest of the season.

      Otherwise, all is good right now. 😉

        1. I was under that impression, or is it just a few starts? Maybe I’m wrong then. Anyway, it’s still disconcerting not having Sale in the rotation regardless.

        2. Just checked around the “web” and no mention of Sale being out for the season. Philip…where did you hear that?

          1. Well, I did hear recently that Sale had more issues with his arm again and that the team was taking precautions. I mostly get info from the tv newscasts. I rarely listen to talk radio like I used to. Hope I am wrong.

              1. Right and technically this stint started on the 18th so he will be eligible to come back off this Thursday I believe. Reports he should start throwing soon. I bet they will take it slow and he’ll be back around Sept 7-10th.

  19. Red Sox have finally hit a rough patch this season. If Tampa Bay with a record of 69-61 was in the National League they would be in the hunt for a postseason spot. Amazing job Kevin Cash the manager has done with a low pay roll and the team trading away players at the deadline and last offseason.

    1. Agree. Kevin Cash should get manager of the year. The Rays GM is also a bloody genius. Exhibit A: Eovaldi clearly has little to offer, except a lot of straight fastballs. Boy does he look like John Wasdin. Rays got Beeks in return, who will likely be a better pitcher than Eovaldi ever was or will be. Rays have no money, but their front office has brains.

      A 6 game lead after today. Anything can happen with 30 games to go. That includes the Sox not making the playoffs at all, or coming out of their slump and winding up with 114 wins. I keep hearing from people that it’s different this year from 1978. On sports radio I heard yesterday from a talking head that the 1978 team was not as good. Well, I was around in 1978. Went to many games that year. They were a very good team, second best in baseball. I think a better team than this year’s edition, with the exception of the bench and manager.

  20. What’s going on with the Sox is called a slump. Every team has them.

    Sale will be fine.

    That is all. 🙂

  21. 12z ECMWF slowed the shortwave I thought it was moving too quickly. It’s still over a week away so no need to nitpick too much.

    Signs of a late summer heat dome in the East in the September 7-13 window. That may settle offshore and open the door again to the tropics. But the thing may continue to be no storms. I suppose this is probably a good thing if you own property along the East Coast. However, we cannot let guard down. Spin up tropicals originating around the western Caribbean and Bahamas are often not seen by medium range guidance and can become East Coast threats without the 2 weeks notice we get from Cape Verde waves.

    1. Thanks for the update.

      Is there any way we can collectively prevent the heat dome from occurring?

      Ah, those areas of high pressure that slide to our south and east. Bane of my existence. Bring on heat and humidity in summer and mild air in winter along with a forcing of lows to take the inside route, which means rain for most of SNE.

      1. Just the opposite for me. Makes a great summer, and a mild warmer winter.
        This summer has been really great. I know you don’t care for it, but this is what I consider real summer,

        1. I missed it if you took me up on my no AC and pool challenge. Last I checked no one had. Although SSK gets a pass since he works outside

  22. Thanks TK. In general agreement with your thoughts, as usual. Just a brief $.02 worth of my commentary below.

    Tropics… exceptionally quiet August in the Atlantic, especially by the standards of recent decades. We saw that coming, but it’s still a little unusual. I’d look for a burst of storms after 9/1 though. Strength/location totally unclear, but the background state (rising SSTs, more favorable MJO, lower MSLP) is set to become more favorable. Put me down for 4-6 named storms in the Atlantic from 9/1-9/20. Pacific has been very active, so it’s not quiet everywhere, but definitely in our neck of the woods.

    Heat… very impressive. This month will make 3 out of our last 4 as top 10 warmest at most of the major climate sites. Wonder how many times that has happened? The 2015-2016 winter comes to mind as a possibility, but I would bet this is a pretty rare streak. Would have to do some research on that. August should grab number 1 in some spots given the forecast. The front half of September will give us a jump start on making it 4 out of 5 months as top 10 warm, but it may lose steam down the stretch. Too early to say.

    1. “May lose steam down the stretch.” Yes, sort of like the Red Sox.

      By the way, when it hits 95F on Tuesday and Wednesday this week I’ll have steam coming out of my ears.

  23. Set up in Nickerson down the Cape.

    Very pleasant this afternoon.

    We’re going to sneak in a campfire this evening. I told my wife we wouldn’t want one Monday night thru Wednesday night.

  24. just got my first ski magazine of the season, its for gear. I know there are other people who downhill ski, I am looking at ski’s despite possibly not being any where near a cold enough place for skiing come winter (job dependent) I am acting as if I am not leaving, so I am looking ahead to ski season. I can’t wait. The Big but, is my skis. I have been looking for a year, tried about 12 types last year, and still aint feeling them, probably because of the skiis that I have had always had a good lips in the front which allowed my ski to cut through the crud with ease. All the skis now seem to go to this more rounded, less distinct curve in the front.

  26. Feeling a LITTLE better. At least today I don’t feel like I was run over by a Boulder. 😉 In fact, that boulder rolled right into the trash. 😛

  28. I obviously wasn’t quite correct on Sale. I had the wrong impression that the team was so concerned of Sale’s arm that they decided to “shut him down” for the rest or most of the regular season so he would be healthy for the playoffs, much like BB shuts down Gronk for the last game or two.

  29. News anchor: “Wow, I can’t believe it’s already Labor Day Weekend!”

    Umm, that’s next weekend……………..

  30. TK – Do you forsee any more heat domes after September 22? Is the 1983 record of (30) 90 degree days at Logan in jeopardy?

    I bet at least 25 days for Logan…unfortunately.

    1. Well technically the same pattern can occur any time of year. We’ve had them in the winter, but it’s all relative. As far as this year going into the latter months? It would not surprise me to see that pattern cycle itself around a few times through the end of the year. That doesn’t mean we’re going to have a “hot autumn”. It probably would contribute to a very mild one though. This does not include other factors and patterns in between ridges.

  31. The 2019 Red Sox schedule opens with an 11-game West Coast trip at Seattle, Oakland and Arizona. UGH!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Awesome! Love West Coast trips for the Sox. 🙂 Also questionable weather many times in April at home so this is a great thing!

    2. Oh yes and I still think the MLB season is too long. The playoffs should start about Labor Day and World Series by won by the day of the Equinox at the latest. 🙂

  32. Winter weather advisories are up for parts of the Rockies, including yellowstone for the higher elevations.

  34. Friend in Seattle commented on the cooler weather. They’ve also had a relatively warm summer, though not like ours. Currently, it’s in the 60s during the day. Along with the smoke from the wildfires I’d like the Pacific Northwest to send us some 60s. You know, Hendrix and temps in the 60s.

  35. Blackstone, I’m glad that it’s been an enjoyable summer for you. And you’re not alone. I think a lot of people like it this way and prefer mild winters.

  37. I love the summer heat and humidity. It makes me loose weight quicker. Of course there is the sweating part, but that is what the pool is for 😀 and if you don’t have a pool, take a cold shower :). In all seriousness though, there are people that have trouble with the heat and humidity, but there are people that have trouble with cold and dry air, just ask my mom. People have trouble in spring because of the extremely up and down temperatures that makes people with allergies get sick. Fall alot of plants are releasing stuff at the start, also makes people with allergies suffer. Every season has those that are affected in a negative way. Gotta just enjoy each season as they come. I plan on alot of biking and hiking come this fall of course this can change depending on what Job I get. Heck I might not even be around for winter this year.

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