Tuesday Forecast

7:08AM

COMMENTARY
I understand. There are some people who struggle badly in heat and humidity. I am completely sympathetic to that. What irks me is the media’s handling of hot weather. We are constantly bombarded with headlines and breaking news making it sound like this is the worst stretch of heat ever. It’s not. Sorry media. The majority of folks can handle heat a lot more than you give them credit for. Pay attention. This is loosely tied into another media issue I saw yesterday. A tropical storm forms in the eastern Pacific, oh, about 2000 miles east of Hawaii. By the way, this happens up to several times every tropical season. Of course those headlines have to mention that it’s heading for Hawaii. Well technically that is correct. It is. Only thing is, this is completely irrelevant because it will turn north and dissipate, missing the islands by….oh, about 1000 miles. WOW, WHAT A CLOSE CALL! The pathetic media needs to start just getting back to basics. I have a feeling this isn’t coming anytime soon.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
We’ll be under the hot high pressure ridge for the next 2 days, the “heat dome”, and yes it will be very hot and also rather humid. Everybody should stay hydrated and out of direct sun, also avoiding strenuous outdoor activity whenever possible. A few record temperatures may occur. The heat will then break during Thursday and Friday as a cold front moves northwest to southeast across the region. The timing of this front and the warmth of the air aloft may inhibit thunderstorm development somewhat, and while I cannot rule out some strong storms at some point Thursday as this front moves through, it doesn’t look like we’ll be dealing with any widespread severe weather. By Friday, a much cooler northeasterly air flow will have taken over as high pressure moves across southeastern Canada and far northern New England. This northeast to east flow will continue into the start of the Labor Day Weekend on Saturday, which may feature a lot of cloudiness too. Forecast details…
TODAY: Hazy sun. Humid. Highs 80-88 Nantucket, 89-97 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Hazy but clear. Humid. Lows 68-78, warmest urban areas. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sun. Humid. Highs 82-90 Nantucket, 91-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Hazy. Muggy. Lows 70-79. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs in the 80s to near 90.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from upper 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
High pressure will sink to the south and turn the wind more southerly during Sunday September 2 and Monday September 3 of Labor Day Weekend and a cold front will approach by late Monday. Sunday should be rain-free. Monday carries the chance of some late day showers/t-storms. High pressure dominates surface and aloft with mainly dry and warm to hot weather September 4-6.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
High pressure dominates and the pattern of above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall is expected to continue.

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91 Responses to Tuesday Forecast

  1. Keith-Hingham says:

    Thanks TK

  2. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

    Summit of Mt Washington running about 6 to 7F warmer than 24 hrs ago at this time.

  3. Vicki says:

    Thank you.

  4. Scott77 says:

    Thanks TK great discussion.

  5. JpDave says:

    Good morning and thank you TK.

  6. JpDave says:

    Temp: 82, Dew point: 72 At the Airport.

  7. JpDave says:

    Dr. Cohen’s latest blog post is out.

    Here is a link:

    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

    As part of the discussion, he had this to say:

    Such an annular pattern favors above normal temperatures to be omnipresent across the mid-latitudes as the Jet Stream is forced to retreat poleward and allowing subtropical heat to overspread the mid-latitudes. This is not meant to be a discussion on climate change but I will just note that the poleward retreat of the Jet Stream, the northward expansion of the subtropical ridging into the mid-latitudes accompanied by heat and drought are projected to be consequences of climate change.

    Coming from such a renowned atmospheric physicist, I find this to be quite revealing.

  8. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Inadvertently deleted Saturday. Will fix.

  9. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks TK.
    I am thinking cool thoughts on these hot and humid days. This tweet from meteorologist Ben Noll. Should have said meteorological winter in tweet.
    On hot, steamy days like these it’s easy to forget that winter (Dec 1) is some 95 days away!

  10. Marjie says:

    Thanks, TK.

  11. JpDave says:

    Not sure what’s up with the HRRR, but the latest 12Z run shows MAX 2M temps
    for Boston of 88 F. Since it’s already 84, I don’t see how that could possibly be correct.
    Once again, I am disappointed in the HRRR.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018082812/hrrr_T2m_eus_9.png

    compare with 6Z GFS

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018082806/gfs_T2m_eus_3.png

    I believe the GFS to be closer to reality.

  12. Keith-Hingham says:

    A lot of cloudiness locally right now…hopefully it will last as it makes the heat more bearable (at least in my mind).

    • JpDave says:

      It’s going fast. CLEAR over head and to North and West in the City.
      Can see cloudiness to the South.

      • Keith-Hingham says:

        Ughh…temp in the non AC area of the house (ie: most of it) started out at 68 at 5:30 this morning. Right now it’s just nudging 80. I’ll make a prediction that it hits 90 in the house by 12:30 maybe a little earlier. That’s when I take the dog and head up to the AC.

  13. JpDave says:

    Logan up to 86 with dp remaining at 72. Heat Index: 92

  14. JimmyJames says:

    SWEATORMA with that dew point and heat index.

  15. JimmyJames says:

    Mother Nature gave the summer fans what they want this summer in terms of heat and humidity. Now hopefully she will give the winter fans what we want.

    • Keith-Hingham says:

      Not sure if I’m still the winter fan I used to be….last winter was good but the winter of 14-15 taxed my limits. I know a lot of people like the fall and I love it too but I also like some of those cool raw spring days. I used to love to go walking down along the waterfront on days like that (sorry JPD).

  16. JpDave says:

    88 at Logan.

  17. Matt says:

    the Honey Bee is officially on the Endangered Species List as of today 8/28/2018. With the mix of invasive wasps coming in. ( you have probably seen the giant Blue and Black ones. PS those are invasive they use to not be on the east coast.) Pesticides have been introduced that are harmful to the bee’s. Some plants now a days are bad for the bees.

  18. Keith-Hingham says:

    Interesting. Martha’s Vineyard is already up to 83 with predicted highs in the mid 80s. Nantucket is already up to 77 with predicted highs in the low 80s. It will be interesting to see how high they both go.

  19. JimmyJames says:

    Winter 14-15 we had the coldest February on record for inland CT which was the big story that winter and I believe Boston made it in to the top 5 for coldest February’s on record.

  20. Tom says:

    B-R-U-T-A-L on the Cape. Low-mid 70 dewpoints and blazing sun.

  21. JpDave says:

    Logan 91 with dp 72. Haat index: 100

  22. JpDave says:

    On Martha’s Vineyard, it is 86 with a dp of 75 and wind SSW off of the water.
    It’s 82 on Nantucket.

  23. Philip says:

    As of August 31, Logan should be at 20 ninety degree days. The way things seem to be going, AC’s will probably still be humming around Halloween.

    • vicki says:

      And I’ll be in the poor house.

      I notice a neighbor who also has central air has placed two portable units in his upstairs windows.

      Also, Philip, I was told by my daughter than Sutton schools have AC. It is more of a recycled air type of thing and lower grades (small buildings) cool better than upper grades. But still smart of them as we do have relatively new schools.

      • Philip says:

        If districts are going to continue having August school days, AC units of some form are going to have to be installed. It is redundant to keep having so many consecutive 1/2 days with no real classroom learning going on.

        Of course the other alternative is to go back to having students return in September. :-)

  24. Philip says:

    How’s your wife, JPD? I hope she’ll be ok during this heat dome. Sadly I bet there are plenty more in the pipeline for September. This is INSANE!!!

    Btw, last Columbus Day was just awful HHH! I remember as a kid, Columbus Days were almost always quite cool. No more with global warming.

    • vicki says:

      I have the same recollection, Philip. And I know it is not incorrect. We have have had warmer days….after all we do call it Indian summer…..but not for days on end and not every year. Now for Halloween kids barely need jackets with their costumes.

    • JpDave says:

      So far, hanging in there. The house isn’t too bad as of a while ago. I worry
      about tomorrow. Thank you.

      • vicki says:

        It sure does build. I notice AC running far more today to bring house to same temp. I’m thinking of Mrs. OS.

  25. JpDave says:

    Logan:

    temp: 95
    Dew: 72
    Heat Index: 104

  26. JpDave says:

    YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Our office AC went out for a while and was it ever heating up in this place.
    Now it’s working again, but wonder if it will ever catch up. Probably not while
    I’m here. (!@U#()!@)(#*!()@*#()!@*#()!@)(#*)!@(*#(!@#)(!*@#

    If it had stayed off, we would have been sent home. Bummer!

  27. JpDave says:

    Logan and Norwood are the only reporting stations reporting 97. Even Lawrence is at
    95. Hmmmm

  28. vicki says:

    93.1 with 72 DP

  29. Tom says:

    Not bad accomplishing these temps with April 13th equivalent sunshine.

  30. JpDave says:

    Not improving in the office and I think the AC just went out again.
    Early dismissal? perhaps coming up. Oh wait…facilities just kicked it in the ass
    and it’s back on, for now anyway.

  31. Philip says:

    Logan hit 96 today. A record high low could happen overnight as well.

  32. Jp Dave says:

    as hot as it is, only 85 in house. worst of it July, it was 93.

  33. Jp Dave says:

    Ac problems at work. delayed opening tomorrow at Noon. yeah. I had to send the robo call to all staff.

  34. Captain Fantastic says:

    Dave…Could you send one of those robos calls my way? No AC in my school for Day 2 of teacher meetings. The super sent us all home an hour early. I watched my son play a soccer scrimmage this afternoon. It wasn’t “that” bad with a nice breeze. Of course, I wasn’t the one running up and down a dusty field.

    93 on my conservative thermometer for today’s high.

  35. Joshua says:

    Thank you, TK.

    The only consolation is the sun angle, which reduces the number of hours of blazing sunshine and heat. I do feel less burdened today than I did during peak heat days in July. Does that mean it’s comfortable inside my Havana-like abode (just a now broken fan that doesn’t oscillate, but without pictures of Fidel on the wall)? No. But, it feels less oppressive inside than it did in July.

    Philip and others, I do not think it’s going to be a hot September or October. We’ll have warm days as we almost always do. But, I’m quite confident it’ll cool down or even feel cold at night in October. I remember the fall of 2013 when we got some early autumnal invasions of Canadian air. In early September in Boston it got down to the low 40s, as I recall.

    Halloween’s generally been a mixed bag. In the late 90s I recall a cold Halloween night, as in sub-freezing cold. My little kids convinced me to dress as Miss Pumpkin. Being unaccustomed to cross-dressing, I `caught’ a cold that evening, wearing an orange skirt (my sister’s). That cold lingered until Christmas. I will never again be Miss Pumpkin, needless to say.

  36. Woods Hill Weather says:

    So I’m pretty certain we’ll be heading for El Nino, the first signs of it appearing in about 6 to 8 weeks. However, in reassessing things a little, there are a few hints this may end up as an El Nino Modoki, which would have a different impact on the weather in the US including New England. Will have to look into that a little bit more and research some past Modoki events.

  37. Tom says:

    The low so far at Logan : 84F

    In Hyannis : 76F

    Many state parks don’t have electric hookups, as is the case at Nickerson.

    Impressively warm night, even being directly out in it.

  38. Captain Fantastic says:

    72F was the low here. It’s already on the way up.
    I still haven’t received by robo call, Dave.

  39. JpDave says:

    Currently 82 at Logan, which I believe was the low, although it may have dropped all the way to 81 previously. The record high low for today was 76. I think that one was broken.

    Close to 100 today. Eric called for 98. NOAA calls for 99. I say 97-100 should do it.

    NWS says heat index of 105-110 today!

    Officially a STINKER today.

    Wife made it through yesterday. worried about today.
    I’ll see her at lunch in which I prepare lunch in the hot house kitchen, but we eat in an air conditioned room.

    Even though office is closed till Noon, I am going in around 10. I wonder how hot it will be in my 3rd floor top floor office??? I have a thermometer on my key chain. I shall see.

  40. JpDave says:

    starting at 78,71 here at the JP homestead.

  41. JpDave says:

    Here is one heck of a live performance by a band. I give it 5 stars.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b1GgT07aes

  42. WxWatcher says:

    Lowest temp I see at Logan for overnight last night is 83F. We will know at the top of the next hour whether it dropped to 82F in between observations. If not, this would tie the *all time* highest low temperature for Boston. Even if it comes down a degree or two, a very impressive and unusual event. And we could certainly take another run at that all time record tonight; in fact we may have a better shot tonight. Even nearby Norwood has not reported a value lower than 80F so far.

  43. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post!

    I wish Logan’s sensor was correctly calibrated. It’s days like this that it’s really important.