Friday Forecast

34 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)
A warm front passes today bringing a brief spike in humidity and a shot of warmth in that will actually peak tonight ahead of a cold front, and then that cold front will return cooler and drier air to the region during the weekend. The timing of this front means that the squall line of thunderstorms that forms on it well northwest of the region will weaken considerably to just a broken to scattered line of showers by the time it passes by in the early morning hours of Saturday. A second front will come through early Monday with no precipitation but will reinforce the cool air, and by Tuesday the warm air will try to make another come-back so we’ll be returning to clouds and eventually another wet weather threat. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 73-79. Wind light SE becoming SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Overnight showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 62-68. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH possible.
SATURDAY: Risk of a shower early otherwise sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early, gradually diminishing.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the lower to middle 60s.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)
Spike of warmth but also a shower threat as a warm front / cold front combo passes September 26. A break with fair weather September 27. Another front with a shower risk September 28. Early call is for fair weather for the September 29-30 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)
Watching for a shot of very cool air to start the new month, but may be short-lived followed by a quick warm-up.

34 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Considerable cooling has been going on throughout Northern (and particularly Northwestern) Europe after a very long, relatively warm and extremely dry summer (in those parts). The Atlantic lows are making their presence known, bringing lots of wind and some rain (mostly in the form of showers and downpours) to the British Isles, the low countries, and Scandinavia. This pattern looks to be in a typical autumn pattern (for them) with a nearly constant barrage of lows traversing north of the area, bringing in the prevailing southwesterly. What is a typical fall day like in a place like Amsterdam? Brief episodes of sun followed by clouds, a shower, a return of brief sunshine, clouds, and the cycle repeats itself over and over and over again. Wind is a common theme as well, as are temps in the upper 50s.

      1. Great shot. Nice blue sky. I didn’t live in the city center, but still not too far from where this picture was taken. My work was very close to where the picture was taken.

        1. Cool. I just thought that since you mentioned Amsterdam,
          that I would find a decent photo of that great city
          and post it. Glad you liked it.

  4. Taken with a bucket load of salt from meteorologist Ben Noll with this tweet
    Of the more interesting ECMWF seasonal parameters: 250 hPa zonal winds!
    A stronger than normal sub-tropical jet is shown affecting the U.S. during winter; this could push lots of moisture/storms across the southern tier and occasionally up the East Coast as Miller A nor’easters.

  5. Thanks TK.

    80 years ago today, the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 was bearing down on this region. In my mind, the all time benchmark hurricane for this region in recorded history.

    1. Sorta looks like a typical tropical outlook during a fairly quiet period just after the season’s peak. 🙂

  8. Thanks TK !

    Our building is officially cooled off, probably since Wednesday morning.

    Should be good now until next May, I hope.

  9. After a 9-day delay, I FINALLY have the medication I need to start kicking this disease’s ass. Thanks CVS… NOT!

  10. In the “they never really learn” department, there were some TV folks this week making big no-no’s on the air, not that should surprise anybody. Among them (and I won’t mention names or stations, just actions)…

    Paraphrased: “Guarantee, big drop in temperatures by October 1, high confidence forecast.” A high confidence forecast 11 days out at a pattern change (or potential pattern change) time is pretty much impossible. Today, it doesn’t look so certain. Oops.

    Paraphrased: “We always try to make the weekend look as good as possible when we give the forecast. We try to make it as nice as we can.” Yup, nice way to admit you spin the wording and give some people the impression you actually control the weather. And some will believe it, sadly.

    And the beat goes on…

      1. not as bad as New England News Network which posted an old CBS graphic and said snow is in the forecast next week, saw it on twitter by Eric.

        1. I saw that, and on the original post, I’d say over 50% of the subscribers to the page appear to believe it’s legit. Josh Judge said there is a FB page out there that reposts about 1 snow map per week from his station to see what kind of a reaction they get.

    1. It’s the set-up on this WP format. I’m looking to change that in the not-too-distant future, likely including the entire appearance of this blog.

    2. Matt,

      perhaps it’s my computer, but I cannot see the images. I see a place holder
      for them, but not the image.

  12. 92 with 76dp down here in Sarasota today. Severe storms just moved through down here, between sea breeze and a tut moving through they were really banging frequent cloud to ground lighting.

      1. Hmmm I guess you did mean TUTT.

        From Key West NWS office.

        a well aligned middle and upper low pressure system is situated over the SE Gulf of Mexico. South Florida and the Keys remain under the influence of this nearly stationary feature attm.

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