DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Once upon a time the was a hurricane named Sergio in the Pacific Ocean. He crossed the Baja and the southwestern US, produced wintry weather in the Rockies and severe weather in the Plains and Midwest. He’s much weaker than he once was but still can run pretty fast. Today his jog takes him from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada, but along the way he’s picked up a warm front and a cold front, that dangle from him as he moves along. That warm front will bring a round of showers to the region this morning and midday and that cold front will slide across the region tonight producing showers and even a few thunderstorms. Once Sergio has departed for distant lands the door will be open for a fresh chilly air mass from Canada. This arrives overnight and during Tuesday as high pressure scoots across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This high then goes south of the region Wednesday which briefly and slightly moderates, but is still a cool day nevertheless, but mild in comparison to the air mass that arrives behind the next cold front, which passes during Wednesday night. Thursday will be quite chilly and breezy, feeling more like a day in the middle of November. You’d be fooled more readily if the leaves were still not to peak color and still on the trees. But even this brief sting will be short-lived as it moderates again Friday. But suffice it to say we have entered a much cooler weather pattern in comparison to what we had going on for quite some time. Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding over west to east early to mid morning. Rain showers arriving west to east mid to late morning through midday before tapering off to isolated showers. Clouds may break for sun at times during the mid to late afternoon. Highs 58-66 occurring late-day. Wind light variable this morning, S 5-15 MPH this afternoon, gusting 20-25 MPH by late in the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms crossing the region west to east. A few brief downpours with gusty wind possible, especially eastern CT, eastern MA, and RI. Humid evening, drying overnight. Temperatures steady in the 60s may even rise briefly evening. Lows 43-50 by dawn. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible, shifting to NW from west to east.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible evening. Highs 54-63. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 50s.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)
Weekend of October 20-21 starts milder with a rain shower risk Saturday then turns breezy and chilly again Sunday. Fair October 22 then a rain shower risk as the next front passes October 23. This front may settle just south of the region with a low pressure area on it so will have to watch for nearby unsettled weather at the end of the period in case it ends up further north.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)
Fair and generally seasonable to start the period. There have been signals on some guidance for a possible East Coast storm late in this period but cannot say with any confidence whether or not this will occur. Something to monitor going forward.