Monday Forecast

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Once upon a time the was a hurricane named Sergio in the Pacific Ocean. He crossed the Baja and the southwestern US, produced wintry weather in the Rockies and severe weather in the Plains and Midwest. He’s much weaker than he once was but still can run pretty fast. Today his jog takes him from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada, but along the way he’s picked up a warm front and a cold front, that dangle from him as he moves along. That warm front will bring a round of showers to the region this morning and midday and that cold front will slide across the region tonight producing showers and even a few thunderstorms. Once Sergio has departed for distant lands the door will be open for a fresh chilly air mass from Canada. This arrives overnight and during Tuesday as high pressure scoots across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This high then goes south of the region Wednesday which briefly and slightly moderates, but is still a cool day nevertheless, but mild in comparison to the air mass that arrives behind the next cold front, which passes during Wednesday night. Thursday will be quite chilly and breezy, feeling more like a day in the middle of November. You’d be fooled more readily if the leaves were still not to peak color and still on the trees. But even this brief sting will be short-lived as it moderates again Friday. But suffice it to say we have entered a much cooler weather pattern in comparison to what we had going on for quite some time. Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding over west to east early to mid morning. Rain showers arriving west to east mid to late morning through midday before tapering off to isolated showers. Clouds may break for sun at times during the mid to late afternoon. Highs 58-66 occurring late-day. Wind light variable this morning, S 5-15 MPH this afternoon, gusting 20-25 MPH by late in the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms crossing the region west to east. A few brief downpours with gusty wind possible, especially eastern CT, eastern MA, and RI. Humid evening, drying overnight. Temperatures steady in the 60s may even rise briefly evening. Lows 43-50 by dawn. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible, shifting to NW from west to east.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible evening. Highs 54-63. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)
Weekend of October 20-21 starts milder with a rain shower risk Saturday then turns breezy and chilly again Sunday. Fair October 22 then a rain shower risk as the next front passes October 23. This front may settle just south of the region with a low pressure area on it so will have to watch for nearby unsettled weather at the end of the period in case it ends up further north.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)
Fair and generally seasonable to start the period. There have been signals on some guidance for a possible East Coast storm late in this period but cannot say with any confidence whether or not this will occur. Something to monitor going forward.

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74 Responses to Monday Forecast

  1. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Here are SAK’s thoughts on the coming week. Very similar to mine.

    https://stormhq.blog/2018/10/15/weekly-outlook-october-15-21-2018/

  2. Tom says:

    Thanks TK and SAK !!

  3. Vicki says:

    Thank you, TK

    Love the format of today’s blog. Once upon a time….:)

  4. Oceanair says:

    Thanks TK, what a great write up.

    I tend to devour words, think in pictures and look for connections. Your illustration is appreciated! You could have been a teacher.

  5. Marjie says:

    Thanks, TK. Loved your blog. Very creative! Made me smile! :)

  6. JpDave says:

    Good morning and thank you TK. I think you outdid yourself this time.
    I loved the talk of Sergio’s appendages, hilarious yet most informative. Great job.

    Yeah Pats and Sox! Neither game was pretty, but they got the job done and it the end,
    that’s all that counts.

  7. Tom says:

    Current dew points down in Panama City and surrounding areas affected by Hurricane Michael are running 72F to 75F this morning.

    While I’m sure residents down there are somewhat acclimated to heat and humidity, it can’t be making the very initial steps in recovery any easier.

  8. Matt says:

    First it was a good day if you are a new England sports fan both the patriots and Red Sox won. The patriots, thank that front 7 of the defense, if it was not there the first half the secondary would of given up big play after big play, there were open people almost every snap, but the pass rush got there. in time. When the pass rush was a bit less and the patriots played more man to man, there were a few bad eggs out there who let their guy slip and did not do their job. On offense, its a well oil machine with a few bumps there and there. Winning against KC will help massively come the playoffs especially if the Chiefs loose another game. I think the two top teams of the AFC will have 13 or 14 wins and will be tied.

    • Philip says:

      Patriots need to improve on special teams to say the least!

      Absolutely DISGRACEFUL!!! Thankfully no issues with Gostkowski.

      • JpDave says:

        There certainly was some sort of break down on that kick off return, but generally, the Pats Special Team play is excellent.

        What they really need to improve upon is their defense in
        the secondary. That 75 yard TD completion should NEVER happen.

        • Matt says:

          There are reports that was designed to happen because they wanted time to get the 3 points at the end, Which mean they did not trust the defense.

        • Philip says:

          Sort of break down? 😉 Special teams still has too many issues for my taste, but at least the kicking game is ok. KC still enjoyed too much good field position on their opening drives.

          As for the defense, I guess we will have to live (and die) with it.

  9. Philip says:

    Hopefully Chris Sale recovers to pitch if the series returns to Fenway. I heard this morning that he will not make the trip to Houston. It will be interesting as to what the rotation will be down there.

    • JpDave says:

      Games 3 & 4 will be at Houston and the rotation will be:

      It will be Nathan Eovaldi followed by Rick Porcello.

      So we are all set through game 4.

      Game 5 will be in Boston with starter??? It should be Sale’s turn,
      but who knows. Right now, not looking good. So it could be
      Rodriguez.

      Game 6 will be in Houston. Starter will depend upon Game 5, but
      could be back to Price.

      With Game 7 back in Boston. Starter totally up in the air. Could be all hands on deck with as many innings by as many pitchers as possible.

    • JpDave says:

      Latest I can find on Chris Sale:

      Chris Sale was admitted to Massachusetts General Hospital on Saturday due to a stomach illness. While the issue is not believed to be severe, Sale will be held overnight for observation. It’s unclear if the illness played any role in his performance on Saturday or his uncharacteristically poor command. Look for the Red Sox to provide an update on his status on Monday. Oct 14 – 9:35 PM
      Source: WEEI.com

      “Stomach illness” is very very vague to say the least. That could range from
      a virus, food poisoning of some sort to appendicitis to something horrible
      like stomach cancer or colorectal cancer. Let’s hope it was just a bug or something he ate.

  10. Matt says:

    https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/long-range-temperature-precipitation-prediction/
    Started a long range temperature/precip forecast, a bit ago and have not posted it here yet, so take a look and tell me what you think about the set up.

  11. WxWatcher says:

    Thanks TK!

    ALCS is looking like a good series. I don’t feel too confident in the Sox this go around though. Houston looks to be all around a little bit better, especially in pitching, and they just play so well against the Sox for whatever reason. If we’re tied at 2’s heading to game 5 though, we’ll have a shot.

    Patriots played a solid offensive game. When healthy, I think they can hang with anyone. The big kick return was a fluke play, that doesn’t worry me. However, the secondary is absolutely awful. The defensive front 7 is actually becoming a pretty solid, cohesive unit (and Trey Flowers is a total superstar), but the vulnerability to the big play behind them is a major problem, and I’m not sure how they’ll address it because I don’t see the talent to turn that unit into anything more than NFL-average, and right now it’s well below that.

    • JpDave says:

      Agree totally. However, IF they can get to NFL average, then they’ll be OK.
      My fear is that they NEVER attain that.

    • Matt says:

      If you noticed, Eric Rowe was back on the field. to be honest it seems the secondary is always worst when he is on it. He was the 3 corner, but I think Jackson deserves to be the 2/3 we have seen what he could do on the backfield. There have been miscues by Jason Mccourty which has cost the secondary problems as well. Devin is not in his usual spots either.

  12. WxWatcher says:

    Still keeping an eye on this evening and tonight for some interesting weather. Any heavier showers/storms should drag a good deal of that 50-60kt LLJ to the surface in gusts. SPC does have a marginal severe risk up for the wind threat in CT, RI, and southeast MA, no mention of tornadoes though I still don’t think a brief one can be entirely ruled out.

  13. Philip says:

    Red Sox are in sort of a “do or die” position and must take at least one game in Houston. Hopefully Eovaldi can do the job tonight, if he is in fact, pitching. Heaven help us if it ever comes down to Price to keep the series alive.

  14. JpDave says:

    Latest Northern Hemisphere Snow on Ground map from the Rutger’s University Climate Lab:

    https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=287&ui_set=0

    For snow lovers here, I “think” we would like to see more Siberian coverage, although
    it doesn’t look too bad. Perhaps others more in the know can comment.

    • Mark says:

      The models are putting a fair amount of snow down in eastern Canada over the next 10-14 days which can’t hurt.

      • JpDave says:

        Agree. I think that all is not lost for Snow this Winter
        season.

        We shall see, but I am looking forward to it, regardless.

    • Matt says:

      if we have a solid increase in snow coverage within the next few weeks, we are good which we could see over Siberian. Signs point to that the rate at which it happens is more important than actual coverage.

  15. JpDave says:

    Current Boston Buoy temperature has crept up to 59.4 degrees.

    Here is the buoy widget:

    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/widgets/

    here is the observation:

    https://imgur.com/a/XsCcmVo

  16. Mark says:

    Pretty cool satellite imagery…

    @NWSGray
    5 hours ago

    GOES-16 observes peak foliage arriving in northern New England (images ~ 2 weeks apart). Can you spot the high peaks dominated by evergreens, and even a little snow on top of Mount Washington in the peak image?

    https://twitter.com/NWSGray/status/1051782321127518214

    • Vicki says:

      That is really cool. Thanks.

      I am still seeing majority green and leaves on all trees. I think Sutton may have decided to skip autumn. I chuckled at a question on FB from an individual wanting to know how long he/she could keep a boat in one of the lakes before the level is dropped. He said he wanted to enjoy foliage…if he ever got here.

  17. Mark says:

    GFS continues to signal a big east coast storm just before Halloween. This is the 6z run’s rendition for 10/30. 949mb benchmark bomb! It starts to draw some colder air in the next few frames. That could end up an interior paste job if it materialized. Long, long way off though.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018101506&fh=360

  18. Tom says:

    I kind of take the projected pattern as cool and dry. I wouldn’t mind a long break in heavier precip events for a while.

  19. Kane says:

    the canadian is showing almost 2 feet of snow for eastern ny for that same system that is showing in thr gfs lol

  20. Captain Fantastic says:

    Even though I/we am taking a couple of grains of salt with the GFS powerhouse storm on 30 October (Holy Isobars, Batman!), it does seem that the end of October is ripe for a big East Coast storm. Sandy, the Perfect Storm and last year’s storm on October 30 that knocked out power and downed trees and cancelled school here all were around that time frame. Am I correct on this?
    Any others am I missing?

  21. Joshua says:

    Thank you, TK.

    Dull in the weather department.

    Same cannot be said for sports. We’re blessed in this town to have 4 very competitive teams.

    The Sox are in a good spot, same one they were in in 2007 and 2013. Their competition then was not as good as the current Astros. But, I believe that this Red Sox team is better than the 2007 and 2013 teams.

    My takeaways on the Pats are not as positive as the Red Sox, believe it or not. The Pats’ biggest test will be against a real defense; namely, the Chicago Bears. While I don’t worry about the Patriots against opponents who have great offenses and poor defenses, I am concerned about the reverse. And the Bears’ offense is no longer poor. I think Chicago beats NE handily next week. What’s been overlooked is that Brady did not look particularly good yesterday. Mentally, he made several uncharacteristic decisions. He was also off in the sharpness and accuracy department; and this was against a terrible defense! Also, strangely, in several key games this year the Patriots’ defense has been much better in the 1st half than 2nd half. That is not a good sign, in my view. Again, uncharacteristic of the Patriots. And then there’s inconsistent special teams play. BB knows all this, and is excellent and forging together a Superbowl contender. This year will be one of his biggest challenges.

    • JpDave says:

      re: Brady
      huh?

      Here are his stats:

      Player CP/ATT YDS TD INT
      T. Brady 24/35 340 1 0

      That computes to a completion percentage of 68.6%
      Not too shabby in my book.

      Yes, I saw a couple of throws that he could have been more sharp on, but
      hey, no one is perfect. Look at the results.

      The only really really bad one I witnessed was the one where he had
      his eyes on Gronkto the left and was going to throw there and then at the last
      minute, he looked to the right and fired an off balance/out of position/awkward throw to Edelman that missed by a mile.

      Well, we are all entitled to our opinions, but that is the way I saw it. 😀

  22. Oceanair says:

    Hurricane/Tropical Storm Michael has come and gone, but here’s an article describing how it strengthened again over land:

    Excerpt:
    “When Tropical Storm Michael tracked inland from Florida through Georgia and South Carolina, it weakened, as tropical systems passing over land tend to do. But then, it suddenly intensified after bolting through central North Carolina, creating violent winds in Virginia that left half a million people in the dark.

    Meteorologists had expected the core winds to weaken through the Carolinas and Virginia. Only after the storm emerged back over the warm Atlantic were the winds expected to rebound — as a storm that had fully transitioned from a tropical system into a mid-latitude ocean storm. But the sudden ramping up of winds came hours earlier while the storm was over North Carolina and Virginia…”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/15/hurricane-michaels-second-wind-rare-case-tropical-storm-that-strengthened-over-land/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bc6f0e1622a6

    Also contains a reference to nor’easters strengthening along the Atlantic coast.

    • Vicki says:

      Awesome. Thanks. I have heard a good number of folks from VA saying they were taken completely by surprise. I wondered about that but was not aware it had strengthened. Seems Michael caught a good number of mets a bit off guard both with the strengthening prior to initial landfall (not that they had not predicted a strong hurricane but….) and then in VA.

    • JpDave says:

      Fascinating. Thank you for sharing.

  23. JpDave says:

    To follow up on what WxWatcher posted this morning regarding slight chance of tornado in SNE this evening/tonight.

    Significant Tornado Parameter from COD 18Z 3KM NAM

    https://imgur.com/a/7zEGcLt

    Significant Tornado Parameter from SREF

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f012.gif

    This places SNE is a very slight risk around 3-4Z tonight of 11PM to Midnight or so.

    Convection corresponds at that time.

    https://imgur.com/a/T2YVk8q

    • JpDave says:

      From latest NWS discussion:

      Models show modest elevated
      instability surging north ahead of the front along the low level
      jet and multiple hi-res sources indicate a convective line
      developing near the south coast around midnight. With the back
      edge of the low level jet across the region at this time, there
      is strong low level shear/helicity that develops so can`t rule
      out an isolated strong storm with rotation
      . Probability is low
      but zon-zero so will have to monitor radar closely. Brief heavy
      rainfall also possible given PWATs increasing to 1.5+ inches.

  24. JpDave says:

    Interesting read from the Latest Blog of Dr. Judah Cohen.

    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

  25. Vicki says:

    Dark day today. I never use lights during day and had to after around 2 today

  26. Matt says:

    the Disturbance that the Canadian is showing should be watched as all the other models have it in some form or another.
    GFS
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018101512&fh=174
    FV3 GFS
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018101512&fh=150 Moves across SE Canada/northern New England
    EURO. Moves it through the great lakes and then south of the region giving higher elevations a light mix, mainly the Berkshires.
    Like everyone above thats mention it something to watch.
    The Canadian is the most robust.

  27. Vicki says:

    When do these potential storms occur tonight. While we are sleeping ????

  28. Captain Fantastic says:

    There was a discussion here awhile back about the earliest October snow.
    I remember going to a high school football game as a fifth grader (Mansfield at Canton) in 1970 and vaguely remember snow flurries or a squall during that game.
    A little research and, sure enough, it was October 17, 1970. There was a trace reported at Blue Hill.
    https://imgur.com/a/LKoBPEL

    Now, where are my car keys?

  29. MassBay says:

    College friend’s son shoots outdoors videos– produced this for the state of Vermont. Enjoy.

    https://vimeo.com/295068397

  30. JimmyJames says:

    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan about things to watch for down the road
    I hate to say this but this is a good pattern for an early season snow. Watch the end of this month or early November for something wintry.

  31. Vicki says:

    Sat on deck for a bit. Wind is mid teens and awesome. Still 63 with 60 DP

  32. Oceanair says:

    Wind gusts arrived right on time (and rain, too). Alert from the NWS for this area:
    ” TIMING…Strongest winds between midnight and 5 am.”

    Per TK it’s brief so maybe it won’t last long?

  33. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post!