Thursday Forecast

328 Comments

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A very cold air mass for mid November is now in place and sets the stage for the first general measurable snowfall of the season for much of the region, however there will be a few exceptions and that is portions of Cape Cod and the Islands and immediate eastern shore which may see nothing if the wind is already east at the onset of precipitation. The low pressure area responsible for this event is going to track toward southern New England from the southwest as an already mature system, occluding and starting to redevelop east of itself as it delivers its front-end snow/mix to this area. The old low will still pack a bit of a punch as it goes by, probably passing just south of Boston, during Friday. A lot will have taken place between now and then, however, including a few to several inches of snow mainly over the interior, a period of sleet, and then an eventual change to rain pretty much everywhere, although by the time that happens we may have seen a dry slot move in and much of the precipitation shut down for a while before resuming with the passage of the primary storm system Friday. By the time we get to midday Friday, it’s all getting ready to shut down, ending with a burst of rain showers except rain or snow showers to the northwest and a shifting, gusty wind. After this the weekend is much more quiet, starting a bit breezy Saturday but dry and fairly bright, before clouds return ahead of a disturbance on Sunday, which may bring some light rain/snow to the region as early as Sunday night. This system will exit during Monday, which likely starts unsettled with a bit of rain/snow then ends with fair weather having returned. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow, except mix/rain Cape Cod, developing south to north evening and continuing overnight, changing first to sleet in many areas interior and rain coastal areas, then rain all areas except pockets of freezing rain central MA and interior southern NH. Snow accumulation before changeover under 2 inches coastline and Cape Cod, 2-4 inches most areas, except 4-8 inches higher elevations of northern RI, central MA, and southern NH. Lows 22-30 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light N interior areas, E 5-15 MPH elsewhere evening, E 10-20 MPH all areas overnight.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain, pockets of freezing rain valleys of north central MA and southwestern NH early. Rain tapering off late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind E increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, however shifting to briefly to SW similar speeds from near the Cape Cod Canal southeastward, shifting to N 10-20 MPH during the day, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Watch for icy patches on remaining wet ground and a freeze up of any remaining slushy snow. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM light rain/snow possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Decreasing clouds. AM light snow/rain possible. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Mainly dry weather is expected during this period with a moisture-starved frontal system reinforcing some chilly air just prior to Thanksgiving then high pressure sliding off to the east and allowing moderating temperatures later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Watch for a wet weather event, likely rain as we’ll be milder in the region, most likely occurring between late November 25 and early November 27 during a transitional pattern as we watch for the possibility of a Colorado Low to tap some Gulf of Mexico moisture. If this system occurs, rain will be favored due to milder air in place. Dry weather and a colder trend for later in the period as we enter a pattern dominated by the polar jet stream.

328 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Thank you. What is your timeframe for evening? I have a 6-9 meeting and I don’t drive in snow any more…especially at night and especially if it is to come down heavy from the start. Thank you.

    1. Snow will likely be well underway with some accumulation by 9PM. I wouldn’t advise anyone to be on the roads after the onset of snow tonight unless they have to be.

  2. Thanks TK.

    Chilly morning, but definitely several degrees warmer than expected last night, likely due to a lot of high cloudiness. I am in agreement with TK’s numbers at this point, but with emphasis on that 3-5″ potential in the interior hills west of Boston. Big question, away from the water, is how fast the warm punch aloft moves in to dictate snow vs. sleet. But again, either way, many places are likely looking at 0.5-1″ of QPF coming in frozen form, so it will be a mess overnight.

    FWIW, the HRRR is coming into range as just about the coldest guidance I’ve seen. It’s usually pretty good in these cases. It would suggest some potential for over-performing snow totals.

    1. That potential is definitely there. There are 2 things that may prevent this though and that is a faster warm intrusion aloft followed by a faster mid level dry slot. Watch for both of these.

  3. Thanks TK !

    I am looking forward to seeing that gray snow sky later this afternoon, before it starts to snow.

    With that said, this real punch of winter is too early for me 🙂 🙂

    1. Same here, Tom. Had to pull a thick sweater out of the top shelf of the closet!
      22 degrees on the old Oregon Scientific this morning. Pretty chilly for November 15!

    1. Thank you Doc.

      Some of those forecasts really do factor in that warm ocean.
      Now let’s see who’s right. Can we compare actual numbers to those forecasts
      post event?

  5. Thanks, TK…Great discussions as always!
    Turkey and stuffing will be in the oven by this time next week!!!!!

    Can anyone tell me the rain total for the Taunton area for tonight and tomorrow?
    I am less concerned about the snow than I am about the rainfall. The water level is right under my home’s foundation and the sump pump is getting a workout. I am getting nervous!

    1. I have water issues in my basement as well. I’m not TK but I would count on more of the same heavy amounts of rain like we’ve been experiencing, unfortunately..1-2 inches widespread.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A couple of thoughts on discussion and comments:

    1. From Discussion…re: East wind. If that wind is East before Onset as TK described, Logan will go over to rain faster than you can say “rain” or perhaps even start
    as rain out there on that spit sticking into the water. Will be watching Logan’s
    temperature all day. Starting up my Meso West display shortly. 😀 I can see a situation where it is raining at Logan and snowing heavily at my house in JP 5 miles away. I fully expect 2 inches at my house, perhaps as high as 3. Logan less than an inch and ZERO wouldn’t surprise me.

    2. From discussion….re: Colorado Low later in Period. Difficult for me to remember
    when a Colorado Low ever tanslated to snow here. Almost always become Lakes Cutters with Rain here. On rare occasions, it take an Easterly path and passes South of us, butthat is very rare.

    3. From Comments….re: HRRR guidance. I have been watching that and clearly
    it has been colder than the others. Let’s see what shakes out tonight.

    general comment….The SREF has been colder as well and has the highest snow totals
    for Boston.

    Interesting evening shaping up. We may actually make a little shopping trip during
    the snow. Only headed over to Newton. I want to do it. My wife will decide if she
    wants to venture out or not. I love it!

  8. It will be interesting if any schools delay tomorrow morning or even cancel a.m. Kindergarten. I get the impression though that even interior area roads should be just wet by sunrise.

  9. 12Z NAM Kuchera, Instant Weather Maps

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018111512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=028

    12Z NAM Kuchera, Pivotal Weather

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111512/027/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    12Z NAM 10:1 Pivotal

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018111512/027/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    12Z 12KM NAM 10:1 Tropitcal Tidbits

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018111512/namconus_asnow_neus_10.png

  10. Once past the front end thump, I’m looking forward to seeing where the coastal front sets up …..

    Will a small scale wave develop on the warm front to the south to cause the coastal front to shift some southeast tomorrow morning, possibly keeping freezing drizzle in play close to Boston tomorrow morning ?

  11. I would like to present a scenario for tonight for the group, specifically as it relates to Logan. Curious as to thoughts, especially from TK and WxWatcher.

    Any how, here goes.

    OK so we know the front end thump of snow is coming in this evening. We expect it to start as snow or perhaps even a mix at Logan due to the East wind. In any case, it will
    likely go over to RAIN before the warm nose at 700 mb. I think we all agree on that
    as the temperature near the surface (boundary layer) warms due to the ocean influence. Ie snow flakes will melt into 38-42 degree temperatures.

    Now here is the sticky point. OK it’s raining at Logan, but the temperature at 925 and 850 mb is still below freezing. So now the warm air arrives at 700 mb (approx 10,000 feet) with falling snowing melting to rain through that layer. Then it hits the colder layer below and forms SLEET. Now sleet will NOT melt through the 38-42 degree
    boundary layer. (or not melt enough)

    So, I “think” we could see a situation where Logan snows, goes to rain, then goes to sleet before finally going back to rain.

    Thoughts?

  13. Thanks TK. Also thanks to JPD, WxWatcher, Tom, and others for your daily contributions which are very helpful.

    2. I think HRRR is too slow with warming aloft.

      This model is much better with warm season convection than it is with cold season stratiform precipitation.

      1. Thanks. I just wish we had a truly reliable model.

        TK, what do you think about my scenario posted above?

        thanks

  22. 19 in Coventry this AM. It looked, felt, and smelled like snow with some dim sun filtered through the thickening clouds. I was expecting it to be down in the 10-15F range but the increasing cloud cover overnight put the brakes on the radiational cooling.

    Some of the short range models like the NAM, HRRR, and RAP still pumping out widespread 5-6″ amounts with the Kuchera method in CT and western/central MA. I’ll be pleased if we can pull off 3-4″. The sleet line will be advancing north rapidly and I’d give us a 5 hour window max to accumulate snow.

  23. I think it’s entirely possible that the vast majority of the precip over interior SNE falls as frozen (snow then sleet then freezing rain). By the time it warms enough to flip to plain rain, most of the meaningful precip is out of here and we are just left with some light rain showers and drizzle.

  24. Tweets from Eric Fisher:

    A chance for some 2″/hr rates Thursday evening.
    These posts are just data supporting the same message – for a 2-4 hour window it’s going to rip heavy snow. Fast moving but wild for a time.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1062911565287120897

    The same misconceptions every year…
    4-5″ in 2 to 3 hours >>> impact than 4-5″ in 7 hours. Going to be a disastrously bad commute NYC area up into CT thanks to these rates

  26. Tweets from Ryan Hanrahan:

    A lot of people have asked why our totals are higher than the other stations. The reason why is because this is what we think will happen! Most of this will fall in a short duration and be a high impact event. If we stay snow longer a few places could even see more. #nbcct
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1063072386021580800

    Nice signal here for very efficient snow flake growth this evening. Strongest upward motion in the atmosphere is at -15c which favors many rapidly and efficiently growing snow flakes. #nbcct
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1063071338242420744

  29. 11:43 AM on November 15th and still ONLY 30 degrees at Logan with a very light
    NNE wind with dew point of: 7 degrees

    1. Thanks WxWatcher. Hadn’t even checked in with them.
      4-7 inches inland, 3-6 inches coastal plain??????? YIKES!!
      AND they mentioned what Mark posted above. Precip mostly frozen before
      tapering off.

      Link to discussion:

      https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

      Exceprt:

      .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…

      1145 am update…

      * High impact/short duration snowstorm this evening for many
      * Winter Storm Warnings posted for northwest of I-95

      We will make this quick given the upcoming weather…but made
      some changes to the going forecast. Extremely impressive mid
      level frontogenesis in association with potent southerly 80+
      knot southerly LLJ sweeping across the region. The result will
      be a 3 to 4 hour period of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates
      across much of the region. Snow begins after 4 or 5 pm in the
      Hartford area and overspreads the rest of the region from
      southwest to northeast through 8 pm. Much of the precipitation
      will be tapering off after midnight and changing to light
      icing/rain.

      This is a classic situation for a short duration/high impact
      winter weather event with many locations receiving a quick 4 to
      7 inches of snow. This is especially true in our CT
      zones…where the heavy snow will impact a large part of the
      evening rush hour. Ptype will transition to sleet/freezing rain
      from south to north later this evening into the overnight hours.

      Based on this being an early season/high impact winter storm
      opted to increase much of the region to Winter Storm
      Warnings…mainly northwest of I-95 where some light icing is
      possible on top of the 4 to 7 inches of snow. Along the coastal
      plain…3 to 6 inches of snow seems reasonable. However…a
      coating to inch or so along the very immediate coast given
      onshore flow and SST still around 50.

  33. Wow on that NWS Update! Can’t say I am all that surprised. Hard to dismiss what all the short range guidance is advertising.

    Crap, I better pull the snowblower out of the shed.

  34. I was wondering with what the short range models were showing if parts of SNE would be upgraded to a warning. Most of CT with the exception of the shoreline under a winter storm warning.

  36. If this same airmass was over us in April, any changeover to rain would be out of the question or at best at the very end of the event.

    As TK says, it is easier to snow in April than in November. 😉

  37. Both Trenton and Philadelphia reporting heavy snow and 30 degrees with visibility less than 1/4 mile as of 1PM. Snow not hitting the ground yet in northern NJ and NYC area.

  39. Just saw D.C. first measurable snowfall in November in 22 years. Philly its been 10 years since they have had measurable snowfall in November.

  40. Well, some people here were talking about waiting to see the grey snow threatening
    skies. Guess, what? LOOK UP! It’s here! Does it ever look and feel like snow!

    1. Felt and looked like snow when I got up first thing this morning.

      Thank you, everyone, for the discussion, input, tweets, and more. This is WHW at its finest. I’m enjoying every second.

    1. I thought that you liked the Winter? Or is it that you just like the blog in Winter?
      😀

      Nice to see you here.

      You and Mark may be reporting the highest totals come tomorrow.

    1. ICON showing widespread 4-7″ everywhere in SNE away from the immediate coastline. I have noticed this model’s “true snow” method accumulations are usually on the LOW side of other model guidance projections so that is encouraging.

      1. Yes, I was seeing and thinking the same.

        I know that Kuchera is not perfect and has it’s short comings,
        but over the years while watching the models and comparing
        results, Kuchera amounts in general are have fared pretty well with the numbers being more a reflection of the particular models
        qpf generator and not the Kuchera Algorithm.

        Just my thoughts.

  44. It has that feel of snow for sure. Can’t wait to see how this couple hours of snowfall pans out before the changeover to the sloporama.

    1. The period of sloporama may end up quite insignificant in the end. The majority of the precip that falls will fall as heavy snow and sleet before everything starts to wind down and shut off. *That is of course, areas away from the immediate coast and Cape Cod.

  45. I believe the last time we had a widespread accumulating snowfall in CT in November was back on November 7th and 8th of 2012 a week after Sandy.

  48. Not a very productive day at work! I feel like a little kid waiting for Santa Claus.

    It NEVER gets old for me, no matter how old I get.

  50. More tweets from Eric Fisher:

    Looking like 3-6″ for most with some lower amounts near the coast. Overall impact is consistent. A fast-falling snow 7p-midnight from south to north with very poor road conditions due to the high rate of snowfall. #wbz

    Updated snow map:
    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1063148212708618240

    Still on track for 1-2″/hour rates for a few hours. All our snow falls 7p to approx midnight south to north. Like a several hour long heavy squall.

    HRRR Snow Rates:
    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1063139131046404096

  51. Special Weather Statement out for heavy snow for NYC Long Island southern Fairfield county in CT. I expect to see more of these statement across SNE in the coming hours.

  52. Logan Temperature sitting at an even 30 degrees with dew point up to 14.

    Boston Buoy water temperature is 51.1, BUT get this, 16 nautical miles due East
    of Boston, the Air Temperature is at 31.1 F. Pretty cold air mass to be sure!
    Btw, Wind is NNE out there.

  53. 18Z NAM slows onset until 9PM while 18Z HRRR brings it on in around 6-7 PM.
    That’s quite a difference there.

  55. Snowfall dramatically over-performing in much of the mid-Atlantic. That will likely extend into SNE, although the Norton NWS was able to preempt it with their earlier updates so their current forecast is likely more in line with what we’ll actually see. Widespread 4-7″ away from the coast.

  57. I up-tweaked my snowfall #’s by 1 inch except 2 inches on the top end. I am split, like the models, on the intensity of that snow band. It may split and the heaviest slides to the southeast of much of the region, leaving a lot of areas short of the “new” expectations. Basically a coin-flip right now. So I played it safe and up-tweaked, but not as much as others.

    1. Hey TK! How do you think we fair in the Wu? Also, it seems now rain will be around until mid day. I know that was a question yesterday. Will most of this snow disappear?

      1. It won’t just disappear tomorrow. It will take a few days. I’m going to say 3 or 4 in the Wu but a lot of the precip shuts off before it changes, and then we just get lighter rain. It doesn’t warm up all that much tomorrow and with low sun angle, not a lot of melting. Pavements do still hold heat underneath the cold surface and some of that will radiate up and help but the snow will hang on the grass for a few days I think.

        Wildcard is if we end up transitioning to sleet sooner.

  58. Whoever my work uses is calling for a bust here . I’m smiling saying your not Tk . The service may have egg on face

    1. The only bust is going to be their forecast I think. You are not going to get “buried” in the medical area but there will be a burst of heavy enough snow to accumulate and make things very slick before the warmer east wind overtakes things and flips it.

  60. I’m seven houses or so away from the ocean and I’m gambling on a slushy half an inch by the time I wake up for work. I will be impressed if there is more.

  61. Be safe if you have to be on the roads tonight.

    I don’t worry about my driving, just the other dopes who still drive like it’s 80F and sunny.

    I was involved in a car accident in North Conway many years ago in a system like tonight. First big burst of snow of the year changing to ice and rain. We spun out 10 min and a thick dusting into the event.

    I hope the snow starts after 7pm, should be off the road after then.

    1. Per current surface obs in correlation with radar, I still think near or after 7 for your area.

    2. Be Safe. IF we go out, we are traveling about 3 miles to make a couple
      of stops in W. Roxbury and then right home. If it is too bad before we’re
      ready to head out, we’ll stay home as it is not urgent to get out.

      AND I agree, it’s the other drivers who are the IDIOTS that will get you killed!!

    2. 31.5 at my house in JP. Let’s hope it stays that way.

      Ok, I am predicting 3 inches at my house with 1 inch or LESS at Logan.

      Let’s see how PATHETIC that prediction is. 😀 😀 😀

      1. If it thumps as hard as predicted, that should help offset
        the effects of the East wind, especially just back from the coast. Plus it is mighty cold just above the surface. It’s 27 on top of Blue Hill at elevation 635 feet.

  63. The traffic situation in Philadelphia and NYC this afternoon is nightmare-ish. Awful timing for them combined with much more snow than expected. Lucky for the Boston area at least most of this falls in the overnight hours.

  64. FWIW, the 18Z RDPS brings in the warm layer at 700mb very quickly, cutting back
    on accumulations. (ie sleet instead of snow)

      1. My guess is that it may be thinking the heavy band doesn’t hang together as well, and part of it shears off to the east. ECMWF and GFS are kind of in this camp.

  65. Boston, at a higher latitude, in these situations, has a harder time staying cold at the surface anyway, then NYC or Philly.

    It’s all in the topography of the land and the relative location to the low pressure area. Bring further west, NYC and Philly are more likely to have a NE wind, while Boston has more of an east wind. Northeast wind in NYC and philly are land breezes, in Boston, still off of the ocean.

    1. So, true, however, with this air mass if Logan kept a NE wind, the snow
      would hang in much longer. HUGE difference between East wind and Northeast wind!!

  67. Logan back to a straight NE wind. It’s not strong enough yet to be meaningful at only
    8 mph. Temp 34, dp 25. Clearly getting ready to snow.

  68. Not to be lost in the shuffle is today was update day for CPC’s extended outlooks.

    Synopsis: They have trended colder & drier for winter, especially December, with a little more “equal chances” but colder and drier than previous outlooks for later winter.

    They have spring milder but still on the drier side, summer a bit wetter and warmer than average, and a tendency to go mild and dry next autumn and winter, although I have not read their discussion yet on their thought process. I’ll get to that sometime after this imminent event.

    1. There are always small perturbations in the pressure field. The wind is essentially variable between east and north, so it doesn’t make much difference. The wind could be NNE for 15 min, then E again, then N, then E, etc.

  71. Hello all!

    Tk I saw your comment above about the heaviest band heading to the SE. There are some strong echoes south of long Island looks like moving NE. Also latest hrrr shows this as well. If we can get that under heavy band for e to 4 hours. I wouldn’t be surprised someone in Northeastern mass get close to 6 inches. Could be wishful thinking for all I know

    1. It could just as easily miss a lot of the region and leave snow amounts on the lower end of the ranges or even under them in some cases. Can’t rule that scenario out either.

    1. The radar trend is for a little bit of splitting but it’s very minimal at this point. We can easily see heavy echoes re-fill voids. Continue to monitor…

  76. Been snowing for just over an hour and everything is covered. In the 20s where I am and I am enjoying seeing the snow.

      1. I guess I was about 5 inches shy of your mark.
        You say about 32. I gave you something like 27 a few weeks ago.

  78. I think there is a little bit of fluff factor where I am with the snow and temps in the 20s currently.

  79. Pounding snow now in Coventry CT. Ramped up quickly as expected! Everything is white and covered. 25 degrees.

    Just heard 4” reported already in Darien CT!

    1. CT is the most under-the-gun for the greatest snowfall rates. This is going to start to lose punch as it heads into MA.

        1. A little weakening on the mid level forcing. The GFS & Euro have both been advertising this. The HRRR is picking up on it, having backed off its snow totals slightly during the last several runs.

  80. Mark I heard Ryan Hanrahan mention that 4 inch amount in Darien. Its been snowing there just under three hours there. The 4-7 forecast for most of CT looks like will pan out.

  82. According to Dr. Cohen, high latitude blocking and the southern storm track will be the key. At present, he is unsure as to how far north the southern stream will set up.

  83. Incredible radar echoes in SW CT right now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some 8-10” amounts down there. Still all snow and in the upper 20s at Newark and NYC.

  85. Ryan Hanrahan now going for 4-8 inches for most of CT with the exception of southeastern areas. Fluff factor I am sure and the rate of the snow leading to this storm system over achieving on the snowfall.

      1. I hope it is a good sign for the winter ahead to Philip.
        One thing I am surprised with is how powdery the snow is for November.

  87. Thank you, TK.

    Earlier today JP Dave reported that Logan was 27F, with a dewpoint of 5. Consider that just 2 months ago, JJ had this to say about our September weather: “Dew points being shown by 12z NAM are something you would expect to see in Florida. Widespread mid 70 dew points, temps upper 80s low 90s.”

    That’s an amazing change. It’s why I would never even consider living in San Diego where the weather never changes.

    1. Amazing how our weather can turn.

      Here’s hoping for an over-achiever here, but I know better. Will take whatever
      comes. 😀

  89. My snow predictions for the season:

    Boston: 28 (most of it between now and January 5th)
    Providence: 25
    Worcester: 41
    Woburn: 33
    Concord NH: 66
    Hartford: 31
    Hyannis: 9

  91. Snow now closing in on Rt. 495. Won’t be too much longer.

    Wonder if it starts as RAIN at Logan??????????

  92. I forgot to mention when I measured that snow 10 minutes ago its been snowing for just over 2 and half hours.

  94. From NWS:

    SST around 50 with an easterly wind will result in making
    it difficult to get more than an inch in these locations (immediate coast) before
    a quick change to rain.

  95. Incredible snow rates JJ. Who would have thought our first storm of the season would be a powder bomb!

    Just measured 2” here. This has all pretty much fallen in the last 90 minutes.

  98. Mark I was not thinking this much snow and certainly did not expect it to be this powdery. I think a good part of CT will be towards the higher end of the 4-8 inch range Ryan Hanrahan was calling for.

  99. This storm looks like a JJ and Mark special.

    I’m afraid we coastal folks won’t see much. Well, we’ll see precipitation, but other than some glop (1 inch, maybe?) it’ll mostly be in a form quite familiar to us in recent weeks: rain!

  100. It’s entirely possible this could be the largest storm of the season in some locations. 😉

  102. NY leading Boston with 6 inches from this storm in the snowfall standings in the early stages of snowfall for 18-19 winter.

    1. WxWatcher, I cannot thank you enough for advising me not to go out tonight. The roads I would drive have salted every morning this week. Tonight would have been bad

      1. Glad you didn’t end up stuck in it! Definitely not a good night to be on the roads anywhere in the Northeast corridor.

    2. Wow! I am approaching 4.5” and it is absolutely pounding snow. We are into the 2”+ per hour rates now for sure.

  112. You will have no problem catching up to me with those snowfall rates you are experiencing. Fluff factor with November snow something you don’t see too often.

  113. Started snowing in JP at 7:17 PM precisely. Dumping pretty good. ALL is white.
    About 1/2 inch on ground. All side roads covered white. Main roads slushing
    covering. Looks like the dead of Winter! I LOVE IT!!! We just got home.

    I cannot say it is heavy snow. Certainly Moderate, perhaps borderline heavy.

    Coming down good enough to satisfy me.

    And is TK ever the Debby Downer!!!! Let us enjoy this one without making
    us miserable. 😀 😀 😀

  114. It is 32 at my house and the snow is wet, yet I can see and feel a fluff factor, not due
    to surface temps, but due to snow growth zone. Awesome!

  115. Coating here in billerica, it’s a very fine small snowflake type. Coated stuff quickly but not accumulating that well. Also it’s my kitten Kodiaks first snowfall, he is chirping at the snow, in a bit I’m gonna go get a snowball, he likes to play with ice cubes and he is a mainecoon

  116. Logan dropped to 34 with DP of 32. Don’t like that. Not sure how long they will stay snow. No matter what, should stay snow here at least somewhat longer. 32 with dp 28 here. Much better.

  117. This radar loop shows Mark’s White out conditions. It also shows that it is Headed this
    way IF it holds together and doesn’t go POOF as is often the case.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25705531&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  118. I can see shiny, glistening reflections coming off of the snow flakes under
    the street light. Snow looks like it is like 10 degrees, but nope just 32. Visibily
    shows the fluff factor.

    Me thinks the models may be Under Modeling snow amounts.

  121. Great pics Mark. Thanks for sharing. Your easily going over a half a foot for the first accumulating snow of the season.

  125. Wouldn’t it be something like the winter of 11-12 the biggest snowfall I get did not happen in winter. Last measurement 8 inches.

    1. Yes, thanks Vicki. And glad to see WxWatcher encouraged you to not be on the roads tonight.

      Made it home and about 20 minutes later, precip began.

      1. Great news, Tom.

        And WxW responded quickly so I could get printouts of info I had to folks who live close to center meeting location and were attending.

  128. The first band is by my location – produced 1 inch here in Woburn, so the intensity is lessening as things lift north. CT is jackpotville.

  132. 6.5″ here and the temperature still virtually unwavering at 25F.

    Absolutely pounding again! Huge quarter size flakes mixing in. This band looks like it is headed towards Eastern MA and may have legs…

  133. All of southern new england is snowing. NYC just turned over to rain. At least another few hours of moderate to pockets of heavy snow before the change over from south to north. 3 inches here in Westwood in moderate snow. A nice band is about to move overhead. I can see some places in eastern MA approaching 6 inches prior to the changeover. This is something WxWatcher was concerned about with the front end thump of snow.

    1. Arod, I think you are going to see the majority of the QPF from this storm end up falling as snow in most places.

  134. If the radar I am looking at is correct, this thing looks like it might end here as snow with no changeover at all. Incredible.

    1. The warm air aloft is just about to invade CT so you should start seeing ice pellets not too long from now.

  135. 4 inches of fluffy Snow here in Billerica since 830, have to say, Never seen this type of snow in November, well of what I remember

        1. Yes that was a snow event too of a wetter consistency. I remember getting a few inches of sticky snow here on that one. That was during a run of unsettled odd years and dry even years that spanned most of the 1980s.

  136. This is easily the heaviest snow I have experienced since the blizzard of 2013. I hope this holds together as it lifts into eastern MA!

  143. To continue your idea Tom, 10 years ago at this very moment (11-15-2008) all of MA was under a tornado watch until 2AM.

    1. Must have been a mild, muggy day …..

      This has been a very impressive cold airmass with a strong high pressure dome.

      1. I remember this time 1992…it was brutally cold. No precip. But then in mid December that year, it was a whole different story re precip.

  144. So, why such a cold air mass? Remember a couple weeks ago when we talked about Canada’s record autumn cold & snow? There is your answer. This is going to repeat itself a lot during the next 6 weeks, just with a drier weather pattern and far less storminess.

  145. This sort of extreme front end Fgen banding is certainly the concern I’ve had for why totals would end up higher than forecast. This is very much a full on winter storm. As usual it will make a great case study, but beyond the scientific aspects there is going to be some public and political fallout from this one as well, especially in the NYC area where massive gridlock continues to this hour. Already finger pointing underway. Best to let the remainder of the storm unfold before revisiting that though.

    1. Seems like we’ve been here before, yet it happens again and again. And then the finger pointing, and nothing gets solved.

    1. Good timing. You could tell by the nature of the radar echoes that the warm-up aloft was rapidly advancing. Should be into MA soon, Boston area by 11PM hour.

    1. We have had big flakes majority of time…not all, but majority … but based on Marks comments I think you are right about transition

    1. I’ll be very surprised if there is not at least a delayed start here. They have salted roads every am this week

  154. 8.5″ in Holden

    For Pre-Thanksgiving, this storm was Badass….

    -Late January Fluff
    -Late January cold
    -Decent duration snowfall rates you might only see 1-2x per season

    Legit

  155. Just got in from the driveway. Boy did that get heavy fast. 5 hours of heavy snow then mixed with and changed to heavy sleet around 10:30. Now still sleeting lightly. We are at about 8.5″in Coventry….the last 0.25″ being sleet accumulation. Temperature still only at 26.

  156. Worcester will decide tomorrow morning at 5:30 whether to cancel school altogether. Currently it is 2-hour delay.

  158. The funny thing is some models such as the nam got it mostly right in terms of snow totals but we tossed it because it was using 10 to 1 ratio and also because it’s the nam and it’s biased over generating snow totals. I think hrdps or maybe rgem also got it right.

    Technicnally THIS STORM WAS A BUST! !! A good bust that is. About 7 inches here in Reading

  161. OK, I measured at 11:15 PM. I couldn’t believe how deep it was.

    4.75 inches and I don’t give a crap what Logan is reporting. It is a Winter Wonderland
    here and it is almost ready to shut down. Probably 5 inches now and still snowing.

    Holding at 33 with dp 29 here.

    Not too shabby for 11/15.

    OVER ACHIEVER!!!!!!

    1. No sleet mix? It’s mixing here in reading. I would figure figure you will mix first since you’re south of me

  164. Well if you thought this storm was not gonna be awesome, I have 9.2 inches of snow on the ground, still snowing, with some sleet mixing in at times and I saw Lightning and Thunder. One heck of an opening act for Winter 2019.

  168. Believe it or not, still houses without gas after two months, no heat or hot water… Hope they okay, and hopefully back by Thanksgiving… We are on the North Reading side of Andover, and had no issues, thankfully….

  169. 8 inches in Reading. Do radar echoes get stronger if there is big flakes? I was under an orange echo buy the snow wasn’t as crazy as I thought it would be. But very big snow flakes. Regardless very impressive storm!

  170. Eric Fisher’s Winter Forecast:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/boston.cbslocal.com/2018/11/15/winter-weather-forecast-snowfall-prediction-boston-massachusetts-new-england-eric-fisher-wbz-tv/amp/

    Colder and snowier than average with prime time for cold and snow chances in February and March, and a possible reprieve in January. 55-65” at Logan with more inland. He does mention the chance of the block setting up in February becoming too strong and shunting storms south a la 2010.

  171. New post! Now back to shoveling a large driveway by myself. Hey, nothing like pushing the guy with the double heart condition. Thanks neighbors (that share the driveway) for doing nothing except driving over the snow and packing it down for me. 🙂

    Hope everybody got through this ok. Here is the difference and why snowfall amounts were at or over the top ends of some of the ranges, and even NWS missed this one. Ratios for a good part of the storm, expected to be close to 10:1, were actually 15:1. Impressive mid winter style system a full 5 weeks before winter officially arrives. Another great example of the variety of weather we can get here. Ok, back to work!

    My day job calls in a few hours, then I have a concert I’m going to Friday evening, so somewhere in there I may grab an hour or 2 of sleep, so I may not be ’round to comment much today, or tomorrow, because I have another concert tomorrow night.

    I have no comment on neither WBZ’s nor JC’s winter forecast at this time. Mine will be out by November 20.

    Cheers!

Comments are closed.