Saturday Forecast

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
An inversion in the lower atmosphere (a layer of warm air over a layer of cold air) will support a deck of cloudiness to start today, but this inversion will break down and clouds will break for sun as the day goes on. Sunday will start with sun which will then lose out to clouds advancing ahead of a disturbance approaching New England from the west, so while the days of the weekend are a bit opposite in terms of sky cover, they will be similar in that they are both dry. But by Sunday night and into a portion of Monday, we’ll have some rain and snow around from that disturbance as it passes and ignites a new low pressure area just offshore, but this will be a fairly weak and fast-moving system, and though minor snow accumulation may occur in some locations, nothing will be hanging around and clearing will follow. This will set up a cold pre-Thanksgiving period of weather for Tuesday and Wednesday that may feature a few snow showers due to a passing disturbance Tuesday and a reinforcing cold front arriving later Wednesday, although the weather these days will be largely dry and favorable for shopping and traveling despite the cold. Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light rain/snow arriving west to east. Lows 28-36. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy with rain/snow in the morning, minor accumulation of a coating to 1 inch most likely north and west of a Boston-Providence lien, with up to 2 inches possible in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Clearing during the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind light variable morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of passing snow showers mainly early to middle part of Tuesday and again later Wednesday. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Dry but cold and possibly windy for Thanksgiving on November 22 as a delivery of arctic air may be perfectly timed to freeze the holiday. Dry with moderating temperatures following this for the remainder of the extended Thanksgiving weekend. A “Colorado Low” traveling across the country may tap enough Gulf of Mexico moisture to bring a soaking rain to the region by November 26 with fairly mild air in place, but at 10 days out this is not a forecast of high confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Colder, mainly dry, but a couple threats of snow showers would occur in a pattern dominated by disturbances passing in the polar jet stream dominated pattern.

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57 Responses to Saturday Forecast

  1. Jp Dave says:

    Good morning and thank you Tk.

  2. JpDave says:

    Regarding that “Colorado low”….

    I suppose there is some remote chance there is a coastal redevelopment
    in the right place at the right time, but that would probably only allow snow up North. Long way out there.

    And what are your feelings for after that, like around 11/30??

    GFS version

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018111706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

  3. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks TK
    You never want to here Colorado low as a snow lover since the majority of the time that is a rainorama.

  4. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

  5. Philip says:

    Barry had a 22F for a Thanksgiving Day high. Yiiikes!!!

    I would be curious if that would be the coldest Thanksgiving temp on record around here.

  6. Woods Hill Weather says:

    I am legitimately concerned about record cold high temps for Turkey Day. (See discussion above for allusion to this.)

  7. Scott77 says:

    Thanks TK

  8. Matt says:

    The AO looks to remain negative through the end of this month
    The PNA looks to go neutral for a few days before going way positive as we head to the end of the month
    NAO looks to also be generally negative.

    Oh and by the looks of things, so much for that possible warm up in December

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      I am very skeptical of any kind of lasting December warm-up. In putting together things, cold dominates the rest of November, December, then alternating cold/mild January-February but with cold the dominant of the two. Active southern storm track with split flow but not many of those get north this season.

  9. Mark says:

    Tweet from Ben Noll:

    After the fast start to winter, what’s in store for December?
    Latest ECMWF seasonal guidance shows colder than average temps in the Northeast + elevated East Coast storm risk

    https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1063754079816413185?s=20

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      Pretty much the same thing that Eric tweeted out, but notice how they are not really pointing out that the guidance actually has New England drier than average?

      • Mark says:

        It appears near to slightly below average precip in SNE in that map he tweeted out. Drier in NNE and much wetter to our south. Looks to me like we may be threading the needle with the some of these storms.

        • Woods Hill Weather says:

          I think it will be a close call for sure but I also think the blocking is being UNDER-forecast by the long range guidance.

      • JpDave says:

        Wasn’t than snow blitz a few years back in a “Drier” than average precip period? Seems to me it was.

  10. Mark says:

    Tweet from Eric F:

    Maybe we will make a run at the coldest Thanksgiving on record. That would be fun.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1063794620612702209?s=20

  11. MassBay says:

    Thank you TK

  12. Dave says:

    In a colder pattern, can’t we also get more snow out of less qpf? Is that in play?

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      Yes, but you still have to get the “qpf”. If many storms miss New England, that won’t be the case all that often.

  13. JimmyJames says:

    12z NAM bring those minor accumulations a little further south my way for Tuesday.
    After the 7.9 officially the other day why not add a little more snow to make a top 5 snowiest November on record.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      I’m hoping to get rid of what I have by next Friday. I still have the final touch-up to go on lawn cleanup and need to lay out all cords and lights for Christmas decorating.

  14. JpDave says:

    A low flying military jet just flew over the house here in JP. I thought it was going
    to land on our street. Hope nothing is happening.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      We were treated to about a 20 minute show by 2 of them here in Woburn and then they zoomed right overhead about 11:55AM enroute to Fenway Park for the fly over just before “The Game” between Harvard and Yale. So yup, something is happening. :) And that is it!

  15. Matt says:

    https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/seasonal-outlooks-3-months-unofficial-fall-2018/ goes along with my thoughts of the Mid-atlantic getting clobbered and equal chances up this way favoring below normal further north and west and closer to normal to possibly above normal south and east.

  16. Philip says:

    TK – Given the persistent cold/dry pattern upcoming, which month(s) has the best opportunity for meaningful snow?

    With Logan’s lousy 0.1 inch start doesn’t help matters.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      So far I think if there is a month that ends up above normal in snowfall it’s going to be December. I’m not counting on above from any of the others.

    • JpDave says:

      Seriously, that was the “official” Logan reading? 0.1 inch? Really? That blows Chunks! What a PISS-POOR representation of the Cities weather. Insanity rule!!! It’s a freaking OUTRAGE!_@#&*#(&!@#*(!@*(#&(*!@&#(*&!(@*#&(*!@&#(*&!(@*#&!(*@&#(*!@&#(*&!@(*#&*(!@&#(*!&@#*&!(*@#&(*!@&#(*!&@(#*&!(*@#&(*!@&#(*&!(*@#&!&@#(*&!@*(#&!)(@*$)(&($&@)#(*$)!*@&$(*@&(#*$^@(*#&$()!*#)(@$&@*#&$)(@(#$*)(@*#$)(@(#$^)@(*#$)()@*#*$&@()#*$_)@(#$*@)(#&$*@&#)$(@*#$)(&@(*#$&)(@*#$&@*(#&$)(@*#($@(*#$&)(@#&$)(@&#)$(*@)(#&$(*@&#$)(@&#(*$&@(*#$&(@*&#$)(@&#$)(@&)#$&@)(#$&@()#$&@(*&#$)(@&*#)($&@(#&$)(@*#($&@(*#&$)@#($&)@(#&$)(@&#$(@&#)$&@)#($&@)#($&@#$&*@&#$)(@&*#$&(@*#$&(*@#*($&@(*#$&(@*#$&@*(#&$(*@#&$(*@#&$*@#&$*(&@#*($&(@*#$&(*@#&$(@*#&$(*@(#$&(@*#&$*(@#&$*&@#*$(&@)#*$&)@#($&@(#&$)@(#&$)@#&$)@(#&$)(@#&$)(@#&$)@(&#$)(@&#$)(@&#)$@)#*$&)(@#&$*&@*#$&(*@#&$&@*()#$&*@)#($^*@#%^@%#&@#&%@#%&(@*#&%(*@&#%(*@#&(@*^#%(%^@(*#%^(@*#^%(@^#%(*@#^%(*@^(#(*@#%(*#%^%(#*@^#%*

  17. JRW says:

    This weather is about worst case scenario for those living in Lawrence that are still without heat. Not a happy Thanksgiving for them, unfortunately…

    • Vicki says:

      JRW, the folks in Lawrence have been in my thoughts lately. It is so hard to believe that they still do not have gas.

  18. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Looking more and more like I won’t totally lose my snowcover by next weekend, which means that for the first time in my history of doing outside decorating I may be laying cords and doing the lights with snow on the ground. The final lawn cleanup may indeed have to be postponed until spring and become part of the first lawn cleanup of the new year. 😉 We’ll see how it goes over the next few days. The persistence of the cloud-cover took away a lot of what would have been melting sunshine today.

  19. Mark says:

    Wildcat NH 90% open today on November 17 after 19” of new snow in the past 7 days. Incredible! They dropped the ropes on all sorts of natural snow terrain this morning. 43 of 48 trails open.

    https://twitter.com/skiwildcat/status/1063852867864408064?s=20

  20. Mark says:

    Ed Vallee | Vallee Wx Consulting

    I’d absolutely keep an eye out for another East Coast winter storm threat just before the turn of the month. This is a significant signal, especially given the amount of cold available this early in the season.

    https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/1063842168522137600?s=20

    GFS and Euro ensembles would support this threat.

  21. JimmyJames says:

    Meteorologist John Homenuk Tweet. Same thinking as meteorologist Ed Vallee
    As an anomalous high latitude ridge retrogrades from Scandinavia toward Greenland, the weather across the Eastern US will turn colder and stormy. A major cold shot appears likely near Thanksgiving, and the first signals are beginning to emerge for a significant storm 11/28-12/

  22. Captain Fantastic says:

    Wouldn’t surprise me if some/many high school games get postponed to Friday or Saturday. Brutal conditions for the players, band and cheerleaders.

  23. Matt says:

    Chionato Kastoria, Northwest #Greece got snow today. Many people seeing early season snow.

  24. JimmyJames says:

    The American models showing some accumulating snow Tuesday for the interior. White Thanksgiving for the interior?

  25. JimmyJames says:

    EURO did a good job with the last snow event for the interior of SNE.

  26. JpDave says:

    Good morning,

    As I peruse the latest model runs, 2 things jump out:

    1. Sneaky snow possible Tuesday
    2. Close call for a biggie, end of month

    Things to monitor.

    Euro snow map for Tuesday

    https://imgur.com/a/Ej1Ob7A

  27. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post…