Sunday Forecast

43 Comments

8:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Every now and then the short term pattern gets away from me and every detail I see is mis-timed or not even that close to what I envisioned. The atmosphere is attempting to subtly pull that trick on me, so this short blog update is an attempt to begin reeling that in, as the biggest problem has not been the medium ranges but the shorter range the last few days. So today just making a few adjustments to reflect unsettled weather through Tuesday instead of just the first half of Monday, and the colder trend for Thanksgiving. The next blog update will go more into detail with all. But for today just an updated detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arriving west to east as snow most areas except rain southeastern MA and southern RI. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch away from the coast east central MA north and west except possibly up to 2 inches in higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 28-35. Wind light variable.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with episodic rain and snow, with minor additional snow accumulation. Temperatures generally ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s throughout. Winds light variable Monday, light N Monday night and Tuesday.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Breezy. Evening snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY): Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
Dry November 23-24 with a gradual temperature moderation as high pressure dominates. Low pressure from the west brings the threat of wet weather later November 25 through November 26. Fair and colder weather returns at the end of the period behind this system.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Fair and cold to start the period. Will watch a storm threat around the very end of November but there is a chance a lot of that system passes to the south. Fair and cold to end the period.

43 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I think the general upcoming winter pattern has been discussed throughly, so with that, I thought I’d throw out a few predictions for the upcoming winter.

    1) east coast Mass and Cape Cod will see some productive, ocean effect snowfall events, when a system mostly misses, but a window of NNE winds from an inverted trof will occur causing frigid air to advect over relatively mild SST.

    2) during a blocking period, Logan will have a day with a high temp of -3F.

    3) record snowfall event will occur from New Orleans to Tallahassee to Jacksonville, FL

    4) during a brief pattern switch during mid winter, a dynamic system will occur with a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch issued for southern New England.

    5) Plymouth and Cape Cod will have a higher seasonal snowfall total than Logan.

    6) Logan will record 64.7 inches of snow, its greatest single storm total will be 15.7 inches.

    1. On #6, with very cold storms, high snow ratios will result in lots of powdery snowfalls. So, the snowfall total will build up with relatively low water equivalent precip amounts.

    2. Pretty bold predictions….

      I can’t bring myself to make predictions. I’ll come up with some snow
      numbers soon, but I am baffled for this season.

      My gut says that we will see above to well above average snowfall, but I may
      have to temper that…. Just don’t know.

  3. Thanks TK. As you said, the short range forecast has turned into a real headache, not something we see often. What was supposed to be a calm, high confidence forecast for early this week has completely come undone. We’re not going to flood or be buried in snow, but so much for our extended drying out period. One of those patterns where persistence is your friend and any cloud in the sky seems to want to produce precipitation.

  4. Also, thinking back to the NYC debacle of a few days ago, if I’m a forecaster for SNE I’m becoming concerned about, or at least conscious of, a potentially dangerous road weather situation on Tuesday. This Tuesday in particular of course is a very busy travel day. You’re looking at the risk of a couple inches of snow over central and western MA from the late morning through early to mid afternoon. The concern locally would be that the Mass Pike gets tied up around Worcester, which on a day like Tuesday could easily domino into other highways in eastern MA. As someone who plans to be on the Pike Tuesday afternoon and evening, it’s certainly something I’m watching.

    This isn’t as good a setup as the other day; temps look marginal, snowfall intensity likely not to be as high, and the snow won’t be falling directly over a major city and may stay far enough north to not be much of an issue at all. But there is a non-trivial risk that we’ll have snow on the roadways out towards Worcester and west of there Tuesday afternoon. And if that is something we end up needing to communicate, we will start from behind the 8 ball because the messaging for days has been “no weather issues for Thanksgiving travel”, and that will be a hard mindset to reverse. I say watch the models today and tonight, and if by tomorrow morning that snow risk west of Boston looks the same or greater than it does now, then start saying it loud and clear that Tuesday PM travel could be very hazardous. Whether that risk comes to be or not, these are things we need to be aware of before an event, not lamenting afterwards.

    2. Wow. Excellent read, WxWatcher. I will pass this to my son who will be on the road Tuesday. Thank you.

      People need to be aware of something that may require a plan B. It may never materialize, but a logical person will ultimately be happy he didn’t have to use the plan but felt better knowing it was there.

  5. Thanks TK. Tuesday looks like an interesting day for weather. Going to rake the leaves today I suppose.

    That said – here’s a moving video I saw the other day. It goes back in time in Elton John’s life to when he first got a piano. The progression is seamless. Just wanted to share: https://youtu.be/mNbSgMEZ_Tw

    1. Thankfully 90% of my leaves are done. The remaining cleanup can be done Thanksgiving Weekend even if we still have a bit of snow on the ground.

  6. Just a reminder for Trop Tidbits users that the server work has resulted in a lot of missing model data. I notice there is still a delay in getting stuff in even though the scheduled work ending time has passed. With this type of work there is often a delay, so with some patience you should see stuff return to normal during the day today hopefully.

  7. Barry still has 22F for Thanksgiving!

    The old record for a Thanksgiving is 24F set in 1901 if I understood Barry correctly.

        1. From what I can tell it’s still off but by 1 degree more often than 2.

          Manchester NH and Lawrence MA are still incorrect as well, and a couple others remain questionable.

          Alot of the “insane warm stretches” at Logan are questionable, if not straight out incorrect. Too bad.

  8. Things that I am seeing for this week
    1. quick moving systems this week one tonight into tomorrow may put 0-2 inches region wide, rain mixing in or it changing to all rain showers for a period Monday before the first round ends.
    2. Another area of snow/rain moves through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night with a mix of rain and snow and this one looks a tad more potent than the first at this time
    3. we honestly will have to wait and see as there are many pieces scattered through the region from Canada to just south of the region, there is a chance everything on Tuesday and Tuesday night misses but that looks unlikely right now.
    4. we know its gonna get cold for Thanksgiving.
    5 We will not know anything for this weekend until later this week, Storm over the weekend could be colder than people think if it happens at all.
    6. risk of a coastal storm first week of Dec.

    1. Storm after next weekend will be a Colorado Low which only drags in warm air ahead so not a snow producer in the least. Yet another in a series of rainoramas.

      1. Colorado lows can be snow producers depending on the pattern in place at the time. This is just as true as a Gulf Wave can produce any type of precipitation, as can a clipper, cutter, inside runner, etc. It depends on time of year / current pattern in some kind of combination.

      1. Logan sucks so bad, as far as I am concerned it doesn’t exist.
        I ONLY care about what it does in my section of the city.
        Logan can go to hell!

        1. Unfortunately, whatever happens (or doesn’t) at Logan, it goes in the books for you and I for the city of Boston in the climo stats. 😉

          If it were left up to me, any climo stats or measurements would be taken in Roxbury which is the geographic center of the city of Boston itself.

    1. Above & below normal snow can run in decadal style stretches. The 1970s and 1980s were in general lean snow years while things picked up during the 1990s and have remained higher.

        1. You definitely don’t wanna go there. 😉

          Actually while we were warm earlier in the autumn, Canada and the western US was record cold and in some sections record snow. Now the cold remains in Canada and has shifted to the eastern US.

  11. Tuesday has all the makings of a high terrain special. I don’t believe any accumulating snow makes it to the 95 corridor. It’s an issue of marginal temps which should favor rain or non-accumulating snow inside 495 and an orientation of the flow such that most of the precip will likely fall outside of 495 anyways. But it could be a burst of a few inches (perhaps 3-6″) in central/western MA and southern NH.

  12. If I am not mistaken, most of the 1950s was a very lean decade for snowfall while most of the 1960s were quite plentiful in snowfall.

    1. The 1960s were generally plentiful and I believe you are right about the 50s being low, as the 40s were high. These are of course general ideas. The main point is a lot of our long-term climate is driven by the cycles in our sun. Some have already pointed out that the tendency for the areas in the northern hemisphere that are very cold to be cold has to do with a very low sunspot count.

      It has been observed solidly that low sunspot periods equal some considerable cooling of the climate.

  14. Increase snow in this region is in relation to weakening PV, which Is in relation to decrease difference between northern and southern areas as well as current warm anomalies off the east coast, there are also normal climate factors as well

  15. 18Z NAM guidance has Tuesday Snow a bit more West and North than the
    12Z runs. Figures. Probably just as well.

  16. Update from TT web page…
    3pm EST Nov 18: Poorly handled server migration by the hosting company continues to delay some model products, including the GFS.

  17. I think Barry has the lowest high temp, 22, for T-giving. Others have more like the mid 20’s which is still low enough.

  18. Thank you, TK.

    Sunniest autumn ever recorded (thus far) in the Netherlands, according to the Dutch weather service (KNMI). That pattern looks to continue. The kind of autumn we’ve had this year in Boston was what I experienced in the Netherlands almost every year for over 15 years: Unremitting grayness, with frequent showers and sometimes all out rain. It’s when one remembers distinctly the few and far between nice days that you know it has not been great.

    Interesting piece on Qaanaq, Greenland:

    http://www.bbc.com/future/gallery/20181109-qaanaaq-greenland-is-melting-away-from-climate-change

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