Tuesday Forecast

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
The second of 2 low pressure waves will pass by today, strengthening as it does so. This one’s precipitation is a little heavier, and the air is a little colder, with a rain/snow line northwest of Boston that will eventually start to head toward the southeast. There is no change in the overall idea on snowfall amounts, with the most appreciable snowfall occurring in the hills of north central MA across interior southern NH. Drier air works in tonight behind the departing system. A strong arctic cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and reach the area in the evening, and while the daytime will be tolerable though chilly and breezy, a shot of unseasonably cold air will be arriving in the evening, just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday, which will be one of the coldest we’ve seen, along with some wind. A few snow showers or snow squalls are possible as this air mass arrives Wednesday evening, but the holiday itself will be dry and bright despite the chilling cold. High pressure will move right overhead Friday which will be a cold/dry day. As high pressure slides offshore Saturday, temperatures will moderate, but clouds will arrive as well as a low pressure area approaches from the west. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Snow north and west, rain south and east changing to mix/snow. Precipitation ending west to east during the afternoon. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches higher elevations north central MA and interior southern NH, coating to 2 inches elsewhere except little or nothing southeastern MA and RI. Highs 36-43 morning-midday, falling slightly thereafter. Wind light N to NW.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of passing snow showers/squalls evening. Highs 33-39. Rapid temperature drop at night. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NNW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NNW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero at times.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Highs 18-25, coldest in higher elevations. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Less wind. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
2 waves of low pressure will bring wet weather in the form of rain to the region November 25-26 before a trend to drier and colder with a few rain to snow showers November 27-28. Dry weather expected under the influence of high pressure November 29.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
Overall pattern looks polar jet stream dominated while moisture from the southern jet stream is kept at bay to the south, leaving this area cold and mainly dry with a couple minor precipitation episodes possible.

110 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK,

    I’m expecting to have icemelt/salt crews heading out this afternoon/evening. It doesn’t appear to be a “flash freeze”. What are everyone’s thoughts on the timing of icy conditions for roads and walks?

    1. In the City? I’ll bet a bag of hockey pucks that it dries out enough before
      anything has a chance to freeze up, BUT I’d listen to what TK has to say.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Will I see even a single snow flake in the City? Am thinking Not, but we shall see.

    TK, you seemed to have backed of a bit on snow squalls for late tomorrow. What happened? Computer models don’t appear to be as bullish.

    I just read Dr. Cohen’s blog and I am as confused as ever about this upcoming Winter season. He was hedging as usual. I honestly don’t know what to expect. I see
    experts like Dr. Cohen 52 inches and Eric Fisher 55-65 inches of snow and both say cold, BUT that is tempered by the usual Spot on TK who has not yet given us his forecast (didn’t he say 11/20? hey, that’s today!), but did indicate that he was thinking about 20 inches less than Dr. Cohen or in the neighborhood of 32 inches. That is a HUGE difference. So it looks like it could go either way depending on where one
    pitches their tent.

  3. According to my Radarscope app and its precipitation depiction display, the changeover or mix line is just about upon the City. We shall see.

    Is it snowing and/or sleeting anywhere out there now?

        1. Yeah all the news outlets I listened to have snow in my after like 1-2pm but it’s been flipping back and forth all morning.

  4. Interesting discussion from the Norton NWS office regarding the Cold for Thanksgiving day:

    Wednesday night and Thanksgiving…

    All the guidance continues to advertise an extremely anomalous
    bitterly cold airmass for this time of year…Wednesday night into
    Thanksgiving. In fact…both the GEFS/NAEFS show the extreme nature
    of this bitter cold falling outside the CFSR climatology in terms of
    850 mb temperatures. Basically that means that these models have
    never forecasted an airmass that cold at 850 mb based on reanalysis.

    CFSR:
    CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS (CFSR)

    Link

    https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/climate-forecast-system-reanalysis-cfsr

  5. All this stuff that falls today including the rain will freeze up like a rock. The next chance for a winter storm for our region looks to be the first week of December. Of course the pieces could stay seperated which I think TK is alluding to, but there is a chance.

  6. JP Dave and BB…

    I do expect I’ve areas tonight as it clears as we won’t have enough wind to thoroughly dry the ground.

    I am just as bullish on the snow squall threat for Wed but more isolated to scattered than linear.

  7. I can’t see snow flakes mixing looking out my window, however, the visibility has lowered making me suspicious that something is actually mixing in.

  8. Looking at current radar, the rain/snow line is VERY close to Boston, and in fact appears to be snowing moderately inside much of 128.

    1. It’s 37.5 at my house. 37 is “approximately” the typical temperature at which time mixing starts to occur. Sure it can be different than that depending, but
      more often than not, it is about that temperature.

      I suspect it is mixing at my house but not here at the office. 😀

    1. Nope. Run of the mill drizzle in south Sutton. Could well be snow in the other areas as they stay a degree or two lower.

    1. I think I have seen them around in Winter much like the Cardinals.
      I once saw about 20 of them sitting on a bush.

  9. Philip..re the comments on 50s being warmer than 60s the other night. I have too many memories of waist high snow as we trudged down my uncles half mile (conservatively) drive about twice a month in winter. Snow was waist high to me …keeping in mind that a waist isn’t as high for a 5ish year old as an adult. And great memories of sledding off of his roof into piles that pretty much reached the roof. So I did some checking

    There was indeed a blip mid 50s where it was warmer which may be what you remember. It was short lived. This research article was interesting and the charts show what I’ve said all along. Warmup began steadily in 1970s and continues now.

    https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1368&context=soc_facpub

    1. Thanks Vicki. As you mention the 1970s beginning of the planet warming, I seem to recall articles and discussion back then regarding a possible return of another Ice Age…how ironic. 🙂

  10. Thanks TK
    Looking at the EURO ensembles on December 2nd which Ryan Maue posted on twitter that snow area not that far to the west of SNE and plenty of time for that to shift a little eastward.

  11. Vicki and JPDave, I’m an amateur birdwatcher and I think that some robins stay put, while others migrate south. There are definitely fewer of them around than several months ago. Age is not a factor, as it would be with humans who migrate south (i.e., older folks who go to Florida). And, socioeconomic and political conditions among the robin species don’t seem to play a role in migration patterns, though this needs to be examined more thoroughly. It’s somehow imprinted in some to fly south, while others stick around to enjoy everything from Halloween to St. Patrick’s Day right here in Massachusetts.

  12. Good morning, dreary morning here in CT…rain just tapered off. A good portion of the snowcover is gone, just patchy areas and snowbanks.

    0z Euro EPS would indicate that could change!

    Here is the Ryan Maue tweet that JJ referenced above:

    @RyanMaue · 24m24 minutes ago

    Many good meteorologists have been discussing the weather pattern heading to December as “loaded” for a major Nor’easter.

    While we can’t pin down details 10-days in advance, the best weather model (ECMWF Ensemble) is now signalling a very snowy start to December.

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1064901661376811009

  13. Will see what materializes. The talk on twitter from some of the meteorologist for the past week is watch the end of November early December time period.

  14. @RyanMaue · 22m22 minutes ago

    Also, will infamous Washington DC “snow hole” finally disappear this winter?
    Imagine this 15-day snowfall map happening — but to see this into early December has to excite winter weather lovers!

    Euro EPS 15-day snow map (through Dec 5):
    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1064903652152934400

    Could get interesting around here to start December if this map is correct. And potentially throughout the winter as this setup repeats itself.

    1. Just realized that second map is only 1 of the Euro ensembles and does not represent what the majority show right now. But….it could happen 🙂

  15. We could dream of that happening. Probably won’t but fun to look at. If that did pan out snow lovers will be very happy.

  16. In the city, it is really looking like the precip shuts down before it turns cold enough aloft to change the rain over to snow.

  17. Like stated above Robins are mix with some sticking around while others leave. It also depends on the fall and winter

  18. Thank you all re robins. I don’t recall seeing them this time if year in such large numbers. There has to be 20-30

  19. Hi all!! My plan is to have the winter forecast written and posted by tonight, but the actual posting may end up taking place tomorrow morning.

    1. Logan needs to get off to a fast start since they have had only 0.1 inch even though most Boston neighborhoods (myself included) had to shovel.

      Logan Airport is in a strange location for imo for climate stats. Oh well. 😉

  20. Just in case anyone is curious about the average numbers

    Month avg high/avg lo – s=avg snow – p/i=avg precip per inch

    So above average for November is in the bag. 9 for Boston….doable, especially with the nor’easter on the 9th 😈 …..Of course you might think these are Boston numbers but in truth we all know they are Sutton numbers because…..well, there is a theory that it is the center of the universe.

    Jan 36/22 – s 13 – p/i 3.35
    Feb 39/25 – s 11 – p/i 3.27
    March 45/31 – s 8 – p/i 4.33
    April 56/41 – s 2 – p/i 3.74
    May 66/50 – s 0 – p/i 3.5
    June 76/60 – p/i 3.66
    July 81/65 – p/i 3.43
    Aug 80/65 – p/i 3.35
    Sep 72/57 – p/i 3.43
    Oct 61/47 – p/i 3.94
    Nov 51/38 – s 1 – p/i 3.98
    Dec 41/28 – s 9 – p/i 3.78

      1. Logan is the WORST PLACE in the city for keeping climate
        data!!! Makes ZERO sense! ZERO! Pure INSANITY!!!!!

        Should be on the Boston Common, Public Garden or Copley Square. Some place more REASONABLE!!! But, crap, that
        would make too much sense wouldn’t it?

        1. When the record for most rain in a year was recorded …1898 was it? Do you know where records were recorded?

      1. I think a lot of people feel like you do and will not mind losing to NY when it comes to the snowfall standings. When it comes to sports different story.

  21. Saw some wet snow flakes hitting the windshield when I left my house at lunch
    to return to work. Just rain at the office and a quick look at the radar confirmed
    what I thought. Precip quitting just as it was becoming cold enough aloft to support
    snow. Oh well, such is life along the coast.

    Bring on the snow squalls.

      1. The pattern depicted there is one that sends the majority of the big storms through the Mid Atlantic and not New England. We snow, but it tends to be fringe from southern systems and more from polar jet disturbances. Those in themselves, when frequent enough, can actually create above normal snowfall during a period of a few weeks, just coming frequently in smaller amounts.

      2. Actually if you look closely, the retrogression in progress puts the blocking in a spot favorable for a Colorado low with tropical moisture entrainment while it’s mild enough for rain here, but when the blocking retrogrades into Canada it then sinks southward and suppresses the southern stream to a position that will bring storminess more to the Southeast and Mid Atlantic then it will New England.

        1. These tweets / prognostications I am seeing seem to be a very simplistic way to gain talk / interest on hope / fear of a non-specific storm threat.

          For what is it worth – ECMWF / EPS is my number 3 right now behind GFS/GEFS and if I think forward looking mid – term the CFS.

          I prefer the CFS view of December. Dry / Cold with smaller precip threats coming from west to the east not southern stream systems coming north. Those would be shunted south.

          Remember one system anomalous to a pattern is all it takes to defy the conventional weather wisdom any given dominant climatic set up.

          I do think we get off this train of 4-5 of 7 days precip frequency.

  22. Looks like our local NWS is poo pooing the snow squall chances here in SNE tomorrow.
    Figures. Can’t even get that!

    Best low level
    forcing and steep 0-3km lapse rates 7-8 C/km are confined to
    northern New Eng where best chance for a few heavier snow
    showers/squalls. This activity should weaken as it approaches
    SNE where environment is a bit less favorable, but a few of
    these snow showers or perhaps a brief heavier squall may
    survive the trip into SNE late Wed/Wed evening, especially
    northern and western MA.

    1. That’s about right. I was not expecting a widespread wall of snow with this, just isolated to scattered snow showers/squalls.

  23. Most of the Thanksgiving morning football games down here are on and will be played on the holiday. Apponequet-Old Rochester are playing tomorrow night to avoid the cold.
    Middleborough-Carver still scheduled for 10 am (we’re tough!!), although the majorettes won’t be going to the game. Not sure if the band is still going. One of my sophomores, who is a clarinetist, told me his reed froze during the last game and can’t imagine what will happen if they (the band) play Thursday morning!
    I told the coach to keep the ball on the ground and keep the clock moving!

    1. In some cases bands may not play. I could understand that. I suppose it’ll be on a case-by-case basis. It’s hard to weigh tradition against weather sometimes. We can survive cold if we prepare for it though. Hopefully this will be well-practiced in areas that hold the games.

  24. Am I ever stubborn. I was just reading back blogs and I’ve had rain in the forecast for November 26 every day since November 12, when November 26 was day 15. 😉 I made my mind up on that one. 😛

  25. TK your not stubborn not stubborn that tittle belongs to my grandparents being reluctant to put a ramp onto their house. Anyways my grandmother has been at rehab and is walking much better than she was before, she is going home tomorrow, lets just say she can not wait to get out of there. I visited her today, RT2 was not as bad as 495 in terms of driving conditions.

    1. Glad to hear she’s doing better! That generation is stubborn indeed and many times it’s not a bad thing at all. 🙂 They overcome much! I hope they do get that ramp in though for safety’s sake!

  26. Braintree school officials had decided to move their football game to Wednesday night due to the cold but the players insisted on playing Thanksgiving Day. School officials gave in and the game will be played on Thanksgiving morning as scheduled…cold be damned! Or is that “cold air damming”? 😀

    1. As it should be . It’s a huge tradition & to change it because of the cold is the most ludicrous thing I ever heard . These games are standing room only and doesn’t matter if it’s snow , sleet , rain or to cold it’s football & it’s played in all weather conditions . The thanksgiving game is the one on the schedule with the big circle around it , seniors playing what may be there last game . You would not see that crap being pulled down here . Glad it worked out for the kids

      1. Ridiculous Tk . You of all people know the importance of this game on thanksgiving it goes way back . Every thanksgiving it’s the talk in whatever house who won the game

        1. Now they can discuss who got frost bite.

          Just my view….the towns are run by town folks. I do my job. They do theirs. The game will be played either way. As a teen, we had a huge rivalry with Watertown. I guarantee it would not have mattered when the game was played as long as it was played.

          1. An online petition was immediately set up & the playes & towns people spoke thanksgiving day it is .

            1. And that is exactly how it should be handled. I didn’t say the games should or should not be played. My view is the town’s decision should be respected.

              1. I agree and I respect whatever decisions they make. Making decisions these days is not an easy thing to do, because somebody will be angry either way.

  27. The Thanksgiving game between Woburn & Winchester in Winchester was moved from Thursday to Saturday in 1989 due to a solid moderate snowstorm during that day.

    We almost saw something similar happen in Woburn in 2004 when we had about a half foot of fluff on November 27, the day before Thanksgiving, but Woburn’s school department with some help from the DPW actually safely moved all the snow off the field without damaging it, and the game was held on Thanksgiving morning that year.

    I respect whatever view anybody has as to whether or not the game(s) should be held as scheduled or moved. The decision is really up to each town/city/school system. When it comes down to it, these games are wonderful traditions and of course any player wants to be playing ON the actual day. If it can be done, great. If not, it still gets played.

    We may actually luck out (small chance) and get a window of “less wind” from mid through late morning after powerful gusts beforehand. The pressure gradient may loosen up for a few hours, progged for a little later but I believe incorrectly so. If that happens it could at least take the bite of the wind down a couple notches.

    1. The crowds will show no matter what it’s doing outside . Just like the night before thanksgiving the pubs & clubs will be jammed as it’s traditional no matter what the weather is . Saying that Go Rams MHS Class of 1990

      1. Our game is home this year. That will help as the configuration of the stands, which are very large, will block the wind somewhat. If the game were in Winchester, the wind would be coming straight across a large open field and right into the football stadium. BRR! We also luck out in Woburn in that the field and stands will be in full sunshine with no shadows. Winchester’s stands and a hill that people watch from would be in full shadow and facing the wind, as well as part of the field.

    2. I agree. It is a difficult decision for the individual towns. When they make the decision, to me, it is important to respect that it was made with the best interest of players, participants and fans in mind. Sadly, the position officials are in tends to be overlooked.

      My view, I know, comes as no surprise. 🙂

      1. I sincerely hope that any city/town that chooses to hold the game urges all to take every precaution necessary to stay warm and avoid frostbite. The players, provided they are required to wear long sleeve t-shirts or insulation sports shirts under the football uniform shirts, and sports gloves, should be ok. As long as the skin is covered that will prevent frostbite. They tend to generate their own heat. And hopefully wherever possible they will be able to get some sideline heaters out there at least for the bench players to take turns utilizing, as well as officials, cheerleaders, etc.

        I fully understand the tradition and the safety and the need to find balance somewhere. Let’s just hope for the best. 🙂

        1. Your point about positioning says much more than many understand, including me. This is what individual towns know and why I don’t second guess. Right or wrong, My parents, my in laws and Mac and I and now our children have always focused on any unexpected changes as a learning experience rather than a negative.

          1. Best way to look at it. You never know when what you may learn can come in handy in a future situation.

  28. Could the day 5 through day 8 unsettled period end up colder if the blocking in northeast Canada ends up being stronger? Rain transitioning to snow ??

  29. Thanksgiving football games are in general brutal for the bands, Unlike the football players were are up in the usually metal stands, holding metal instruments, blowing air into those instruments trying to keep them warm so that we did not sound like crap. ideal temperatures for a marching band are in the 50s and 60s, just cool enough not to sweat out but not to cold that the instruments are impacted. When temperatures go below 40 its harder to play. When it gets into the 30s you do not feel your fingers on the buttons. When its in the 20s, your lips feel like they are going to fall off or stick to the mouth piece. Then of course your body is all stiff prior to going out and marching on a field thats as hard as a walk but has holes from the cleats of the football players. Luckily my band director said if wind chills go below 25 degree we do not go out on the field, instead we go inside and warm up, also we enjoyed nice hot chocolate and cider during the game. MY 2 year they had heaters blowing on us lol. The chearleaders and the color guard were not happy that we got the heaters but lets just say from then on, the cheerleaders were really friendly with us as we let them come up to the stands with us when they were not going to cheer. The cheerleaders and the Band had more relationships than the cheerleaders and the football team for a few years.

  30. Running in the Feaster Five 5K Thursday morning in Andover… usually about 10k runners… going to be interesting! My first…. they already killed the 5 mile, and will only do the 5K. Also killed the Kids Fun Run.

  31. What I think of the models right now…. They stink
    weekend storm, looks like it will give less rain to the region. southern jet energy slides off the SE coast. Low forming up in the great lakes with a third low trying to form in the middle right over us. Another low forms behind it and travels to the great lakes which transfers energy to another coastal low that looks to form south of the region and out to sea sending some light rain/snow to the region next Tuesday. Then the energy thats left over the great lakes (upper low) could interact with southern energy but who knows whats gonna happen with that. This low happens to occur in the time frame that the long range models were looking at for possible coastal storm. Long ways out but there is something in the area, just need things to match up correctly.

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