Saturday Forecast

47 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
No big changes today. Two low pressure systems will impact the region, both with mild Pacific air in place resulting in rain instead of anything frozen, despite the monumental chill we’re just recovering from now. Just another example of changing weather. The timing of these systems brings the main rain threats across southeastern New England in the overnight to mid morning hours of Sunday, and the afternoon and nighttime hours of Monday. The second of the two systems will have a very broad circulation as it exits Tuesday, with a gusty westerly wind but still a rain shower risk which then changes to a snow shower risk Wednesday with the help of colder air and an upper level low pressure area. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-47. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives. Lows 35-42. Wind SE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Rain ending by mid morning. Areas of drizzle. Highs 41-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod in the morning.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 37-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, light variable, then light E before dawn.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely by afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 40-46. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH South Coast.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Scattered rain showers day. Isolated snow showers evening. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Chance of snow showers. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
A chilly northwesterly air flow and dry weather expected November 29-30. High pressure is expected to dominate with fair weather December 1-2, then milder with a chance of rain showers December 3 as high pressure moves offshore and a trough approaches from the west. This represents slower timing and evolution than was previously indicated and will be part of a pattern readjustment.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)
This period may start mild and unsettled with rain showers then a turn to sharply colder air with a risk of a few snow showers, but the overall trend toward mainly dry weather.

47 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!

    As I mentioned in the previous blog, the tv mets continue to show models with walls of water (yellows and reds) passing through our area tomorrow morning. Right in the middle of my commute.

    Just once I would like to see a system under an inch. Getting fed up with these prolific rain events! 🙁

    1. I hear you, Philip. I’m utterly fed up with the rain. It looks like we’ll have rain basically for a 72 hour stretch, starting this evening. I know there will be periods during which it doesn’t rain, but still. This is getting to be more than a nuisance. It’s weather. we can’t control it. But, I’m miffed. I did enjoy the last couple of days, because of the deep blue skies and sun. Slowly but surely we’re all becoming sun-deprived, so we then start worshiping it when it does shine.

      1. I haven’t been down in my basement lately but it wouldn’t surprise me to find salmon running upstream inside the drainpipe, lol. 😀

        Seriously though, one day I really should call a professional to deal with my basement once and for all. My next door neighbor had the same issues, but no more as far as I know. She called the basement pros.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Are we about to reach an all time record high in terms of rainfall for
    the month of November? If not for the 3 month period Sep, Oct and Nov?

    Boston has an excellent chance for about 2 more inches in the next couple of days.

    1. I’d say we break the record for November, but also the autumnal months. Not a record I like breaking. Oh well.

      1. Records were made to be broken, especially in our very short period of observing.

        Remember a couple years ago we couldn’t buy a few rain drops. That’s the way weather works. Cycles upon cycles. Sometimes they combine to give, and give, and give, even if you don’t want what they’re giving. 😉

        1. Not totally certain but I believe Logan to date is 7.15” for the month and the all time November record is 11 inches or thereabouts.

  4. Thank you, TK.

    I’m headed to Miami on a 1 day business trip Wednesday. Fly down very early Wednesday, return Thursday afternoon. I’ll wear a winter coat on my way to Logan, put it away for a day, then put it back on when I get back to Logan. I won’t experience much of the sunshine and warmth Miami offers, as I’ll be presenting and doing panels at a conference hotel.

  6. It was 13 degrees in Bartlett this morning and when I arrived at Wildcat it was 30. Much warmer than yesterday!

  8. Current Boston Buoy water temperature is 48.4 degrees
    Average is 48.5

    We are now at a departure of – 0.1 degrees. Back on track.

        1. The onshore wind would put an end to any snow very quickly. You’d need a north or northwest wind.

  9. YES we can do a snowfall contest but I think we should try something a little different. How about just Boston, and if JP Dave is up for it we could guess Logan’s and Dave’s totals then see how different they are. We’ll remind everyone of the current totals since measurable has already occurred, and then people will all have an equal advantage when placing their guesses.

    Poll. Like this idea? Hate it?

    3. Works for me. Want me to keep track or does someone else want the honor? I’m more than happy to but dont want to step on toes 🙂

        1. We would also need to know JPD’s amount to date as a start. I believe he measured close to 6 inches from the last event if I am not mistaken.

          JPD can verify this, of course.

  12. If Dave is ok with this, Vicki can gather the guesses as in the past. If Dave keeps a running total it’s obvious that Dave will keep track of Dave’s snow. 😉 Logan is easy enough to get, obviously.

    Once Dave chimes in, we’ll see how it is going to go.

    I am off shortly to the Woburn Festival on the Common, in which my son is performing with the chorale group he’s a part of. He’s the youngest, by about 25 years. 😉

    1. I’m ok with it, but there are times I can’t get a measurement, like if there
      is a change to rain while I am at work or in the middle of the night. On those occasions, I will make a reasonable estimate. 😀

      I am sitting at 4.75 inches so far.

      As far as JP compared to Logan on an annual basis?? Hard to say.
      Anything I would come up with is a guess. But I think something like
      45-48 inches. We’re only a little more the 5 miles from Logan, enough for a difference, sometimes a large difference like on the 15th and sometimes not
      much of a difference.

      I’ll start a spreadsheet. Occasionally I can post results to date.

  14. The weather during the first week of December may prove how “sucktastic” either the FV3 or ECMWF is performing, or possibly both. But I’m going to guess FV3 is going to lose this battle. They are so different in their timing right now it’s laughable.

  18. This sounds like a good idea. Just so I am on the same page..

    Dave you will keep track of Logan and JPD

    I will collect guesses

    As in the past, can people put their guesses on the contest page. That way I won’t miss them if they are mixed in with commenting here. Thank you.

  19. It doesn’t look like anyone in SE New england will be getting anything meaningful in terms of snowfall the next 2 or so weeks unless something sneaky happens. The first week of december looks like it wants to take the storm over the Lakes, so much for snowy Start…..

    1. The systems that deliver a few minor to possibly moderate snow events won’t show up on models very well at first.

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