Monday Forecast

62 Comments

9:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
The final 5 days of November will follow a pattern we’ve seen for a good part of this autumn, and this is made clear right away by the next in a series of storms, which will be arriving in an already drizzle-saturated region as plenty of low level moisture is already in place. There are even clusters of essentially ocean-effect rainfall moving in from the east southeast this morning that will be around prior to the storm’s rainfall arriving later. The storm system will bring a solid rainfall to the region later today through most of tonight, with the rain exiting around dawn Tuesday. This is the long-talked-about “Colorado low” that was first mentioned on the blog back on November 12, and seems to be keeping its promise to visit us on its scheduled date of November 26. Tuesday and Wednesday will be unsettled days but will be more cloud dominated than anything else, with just some scattered rain showers Tuesday and snow showers Wednesday as both the surface and air above turn colder during the passage of an upper level low pressure area. Between that departing low and approaching high pressure expect a dry, chilly, blustery Thursday and a more tranquil Friday as the high pressure area moves overhead during the course of the day.
Forecast details…
MONDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Drizzle likely. Scattered rain through early afternoon. Steadier rain arriving later in the afternoon. Highs 40-46. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH South Coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times, tapering off toward dawn. Areas of fog. Lows 36-41 interior MA and southern NH, holding steady 40-46 or even rising slightly to the south. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH southern NH and northern MA, SE to SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Wind gusts may reach or exceed 40 MPH at times.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers early, then variably cloudy with passing brief rain showers possible. Highs 42-48 morning, gradually cooling back to the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH southern NH and northern MA, SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts in areas to the S, then W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing light snow shower. Lows 26-32. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Diminishing wind. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)
Transitional pattern as December begins. Weakening small low pressure system brings clouds and perhaps some light precipitation early Saturday December 1. Larger low pressure area approaches the region Sunday December 2 with overcast and eventual rainfall. Current timing suggest drier weather December 3 and also a little colder. Next low pressure area comes along December 4 into December 5 with a period of rain/mix/snow possible. Too early to determine details but snow becomes more likely for a larger portion of the region with colder air. Will monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Overall colder pattern becomes established as we head into a polar jet stream dominated set-up but cannot rule out at least some moisture from the subtropical jet still becoming involved with a passing northern system. While the overall trend is toward drier, as in less southern jet stream storminess impacting the region, it’s still an active pattern for the polar jet with colder air and so the chance of minor but colder systems increases.

62 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thank you.

    Fog is thick as peanut butter. Visibility has to be less than 1/8 mile in many areas and not much more in others

    1. Thick as peanut butter? Never heard that one before. Is that a Sutton
      expression?

      The old expression in my day was “Pea Soup” fog.

      NO fog here in the city, however, cloud layer is low and shrouds the upper
      half of the city sky line.

          1. Yes but you must admit it fit the conversation nicely.

            That show is a classic. 🙂 I’ve watched it every year of my life.

              1. I remember it’s first year as a tv show and also watch every year. The song was recorded when I was less than two weeks old as I recall

  4. Good morning again and many thanks TK.

    MORE RAIN! What else is new? But as SAK said, WE NEED THE RAIN!
    So, there you have it.

    There is at least the hope that Many of the NNE ski areas get primarily snow from
    this event or worse case a net gain of snow should any rain get involved. Let us hope so anyway.

  6. Thanks TK. As you said, this “Colorado low” is one system we’ve had scheduled for going on two weeks now. Will be a good snow maker for ski country and another soaker to the south. Relentless wet pattern continues.

    1. As as we kept saying, “Colorado lows” are NOT snow producers for SNE. To be sure, there are exceptions, but generally they make for RAINORAMAS in SNE. 😀

    1. The snow chances are not great in the 7 days ahead. It’s after that we begin to see an increase.

  10. 12z GFS does have some accumulating snow late next week. Way out there and will probably not happen but when you love snow you look out in the future and see if there is any chance of snow even if it is slim to none.

  11. Well the EURO and GFS has something at hour 240 with snow for my area points west which I honestly like since that means snow here but also up in ski country.

  12. Thanks TK !

    Its only late November. Most of the time, it shouldn’t be snowing in southern New England.

    Winter, in spite of its significant appearance in mid November, truly is a few more weeks away, on average.

    Patience ….. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Louder for the people in the back 🙂 🙂

      Outside of Logan, we’re pretty much all above average on snow already. And I agree with TK, snow chances should go up after an inside runner/cutter system around 12/2.

  13. December 1st to March 31st bring on the snow.
    I like at the 9 inches I got a week before Thanksgiving as bonus snow considering we only average 2 inches of snow for the month of November where I live.

  14. I was privledged to attend an Eagle Scout Court of Honor last Friday for one of my students. In his bio, it was mentioned that the student had earned 28 “frost points” for sleeping out in tents when the temperature dropped below 32. He even built an igloo and slept in it! Gee, I get cranky when I don’t have my three blankets and comforter!!!

    On the way home through the cranberry bogs from the Scout ceremony Friday night, it was such a clear, crisp night that I picked up WSM 650 from Nashville (Grand Ole Opry) and a station from Lexington, Kentucky like it was next door! Pretty cool!

    Keith, I know you like listening to clear channel radio.

  15. Although we miss out on this storm, the ski areas of VT, NH, and ME look to get crushed tonight through Wednesday. Some of them are touting up to 18″ expected by Wed. which is certainly possible looking at some of the models. NWS has hoisted WSW’s for all of the higher elevations of NNE.

    This has been some of best early season ski conditions I can remember and it only looks to get better after this week (with perhaps one hiccup next weekend as we have potentially one more warm system passing well to our west with region-wide wet weather).

    Overall, very excited about this upcoming pattern…this week for the ski areas, and beyond for SNE as well.

  16. The 12z FV-3 is pretty high on entertainment value as usual, with two coastal storm bombs in the long range – one late developing in the Maritimes on 12/6 and a 961mb snow hurricane over the ocean and just missing us on 12/9. And it has another threat on 12/12. The southern stream looks to get involved on all of these threats which should make for an interesting period to watch.

    2. Thanks Mark.

      Not going to get excited anytime soon on any of this, but at least it looks
      like there will be some more activity.

    1. Was just going to post this. He thinks near to above average temps in the eastern US through day 10 and then colder temps thereafter.

      1. One of his best blog entries imho. There was another
        a few years back on the Stratospheric warming that was other
        worldly.

  21. Up until now, I never heard of “ocean effect” rain. Thanks TK!

    Is it the same effect as the snow…cold wind blowing over warm water?

    2. I found this….

      Although lake-effect snow gets virtually all the press, lake-effect rain does occur. It develops when cold air, about 20 to 25 degrees lower than the temperature of the water flows across the lake. A temperature differential of that magnitude is rare, except in the fall when potent early-season cold air outbreaks invade the Midwest. The precipitation falls as rain, not snow, because the temperature in the layer between the clouds and the surface is too warm to sustain snow. The cold air over the warm lake creates a very unstable atmosphere, and the lake-effect rain is often accompanied by thunder and lightning.

  22. Thank you, TK.

    I cannot believe it’s raining again. It’s been at least a couple of hours since it last rained. And before that there was a lull of a whopping 3 hours.

    Welcome to the new rain capital of the world: Boston, Massachusetts. Notice, I had to add Massachusetts, as it doesn’t rain nearly as much in Boston, England as it does here, at least not recently.

    There’s a good word to describe this autumn’s onslaught of rain: unremitting. I guess it’s punishment for those lengthy periods of drought several years ago.

      1. Well….NO…I was going to at least start outside decorations tomorrow morning so that just won’t work for me. But thank you. 😉

  25. New post! I didn’t touch DAYS 11-15 as I felt no need to. Otherwise everything else is updated accordingly.

Comments are closed.