Thursday Forecast

71 Comments

8:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
No changes to thoughts on upcoming weather. Gusty breeze and a chill today between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, then more tranquil with high pressure overhead Friday. Weak disturbance may bring spotty very light rain/snow first thing Saturday, probably pre-dawn if at all, but basically a dry day. Broad low pressure approaches and will bring milder air and rain into the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, but this system will be weakening as it passes through. Drier air returns by Monday but not that cold. We’ll have to wait for a cold front to deliver colder air and that is not due to arrive until evening.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light rain and/or snow possible overnight. Lows 30-36. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain arriving at night. Highs 38-45. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely morning. Slight chance of a rain shower afternoon. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing rain or snow shower evening. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Will have to watch arrival of colder air timed with a wave of low pressure that can bring snow/mix/rain December 4-5 with timing and details to be sorted out in the days ahead. Drier weather follows for December 6-7 with the next precipitation threat around December 8. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
Transitional pattern, active with amount of systems but generally not expecting major storms as the polar jet tries to become dominant and the subtropical jet trends more southward. Still risks of unsettled weather a few times with timing uncertain this far in advance.

71 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. The next couple days will be a good lesson as to why paying too close attention to model details for systems more than 3 days away is not really worth it in any way whatsoever in terms of making a practical weather forecast.

    1. True ‘dat!! But then who in heavens name would not take a more than three-day forecast as anything other than and rough idea? Have we truly dumbed-down that much?

  2. Thanks TK
    What is your thoughts on the torch being talked about on twitter that is coming from mid December to the end of December?

    1. I can buy a period of mild, but not a 2/3 of a month torch. The overall trend is not for this. Canada is loaded with snow & cold, even with the arctic chill having retreated for now.

      I don’t see much of anything that reminds me of Torch-cembers past.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I posted my snow predictions on the contest page and I shall also repeat here.
    Have a good laugh. I previously was going high, but not anymore. TKs’ forecast?
    Well to be honest, that gave me pause, but also what we have been witnessing
    plays into it very much as well.

    Annual Snow predictions for Winter season 2018-2019

    First of all, the basis. My basis is mostly a guess, with some gut and experience thrown in. I would not wager any money on this, but my feeling on this Winter is that
    We will have a preponderance of Cutters and Inside runners, mostly with coastal or near coastal redevelopments keeping mostly snow up North, but not so much in SNE, most especially near the coast. This will put a rather steep snow gradient coast to inland in place and when there is a good set up, the storm will be suppressed
    to the South.

    So here goes:

    Boston (Logan) 28 inches
    Boston (JP) 36 inches
    Worcester 52 inches
    Providence 23 inches
    Hartford 41 inches
    Portland, Me 60 inches
    Concord, NH 75 inches
    Burlington, VT 100 inches
    Mountains, 200-300+ Inches

    1. You know that doesn’t work, however, I will say that If I am incorrect, I won’t
      be disappointed. πŸ˜€

  6. Thank you.

    Hoping Friday evening remains precipitation free. We (kids, grandkids) are decorating the tree on Sutton Common that is in Mac’s memory. I truly love this small town celebration.

  7. Thanks TK. I echo the sentiment on not paying attention to models beyond three days right now. We’re in one of those “one system at a time” regimes where models won’t resolve something like the 12/5 system until they figure out the 12/2 system, etc.

    On the mid-late December “torch” potential, it’s still a little early to say IMO. But with the pattern up around Alaska looking to basically do a 180 in the 10-15 day range, it would certainly seem to introduce enhanced warm risks ~12/15-12/25. Rule of thumb in winter, warm Alaska means cold Eastern US and vice versa, with a few days of lag time between when a shift happens there and when the opposite shift happens here.

    1. not paying attention to models beyond three days right now.

      Maybe this is a hot take but I feel like paying attention to storms on models beyond three days at any time of the year tends to be a fools errand – especially if you don’t factor in countless other datasets and are just looking at one graphic.

      I nominate calling them Popcorn Storms. You see a blizzard ten days out on the GFS FV3 that’s a good Popcorn Storm because it provides a lot of entertainment, looks thrilling, excites and terrifies but ultimately performs poorly at the box office. lol

      1. First sentence is supposed to be in quotes. I always forget what code WordPress uses.

        [quote]testing[/quote]

  8. Thanks TK !

    64.7 inches at Logan
    65.9 inches at JpDave’s.

    High totals, not due to high melted storm totals, but rather snow ratios that are 15 or 20 to 1 in a handful of very cold winter events. So perhaps needing only 3.5 to 4 inches of melted to get these powdery snowfall seasonal totals.

    1. 1.2 inches more at my house. I am already at +4.6 inches. Did you factor that in?
      Or do you figure Logan will get a bit more ocean enhancement down the road?

      Curious.

      1. He’s going for a 12 hour ocean effect band right over the measuring location (which I believe may still be in East Boston).

        1. Must be. πŸ˜€ Generally speaking, it would get more enhanced towards my house, but who knows.

          I am not feeling it at the moment. Hope I am dead wrong!

    2. Haha …..

      just choosing the numbers to illustrate that many storms, because they will be cold, won’t see that more traditional snowfall difference btwn Logan and Jamaica Plain. Probably over-compensated too much and should have a slightly larger difference πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  9. Boston logan 47
    Boston JP 53

    Lowell Ma 55

    Gloucester Ma 44

    Worcester Ma 55

    Fitchburg Ma 60

    Hyannis Ma: 30

    Providence RI 30

    Hartford(Bradly) CT 32

    concord NH 58

    Burlington VT 58

    Portland ME 55

  10. NOTE….before anyone posts more predictions, can we set what they will be for please. It was my understanding that we are doing just logan and JPD’s home????

    2. My take on the December 9 storm….it’s on the table and if it doesn’t materialize, I’ll simply consider it a Godwink!!!

    2. As depicted, that one means business, but what a HUGE discrepancy between
      the 2 GFS models. Absolutely PATHETIC! And you know which one is more
      likely to be correct? The regular GFS.

      The Euro wants to bring us a RAINORAMA on the 8th-9th.

  14. A run before on the EURO were looking at accumulating snow for the 8th-9th.
    Far from a final solution.

    1. What the hell happened there in CT and western MA? If that map ever verified, I would not be a happy camper!

      1. Kind of an odd distribution of snow. Look at the comparison
        to the 10:1 map. This would indicate high ratio snows as 10:1
        only show about 1 foot.

        I am guessing 2 possible reasons:

        1. Banding
        2. Ocean enhancement

        Your thoughts

        1. I got a better shot at seeing my Cowboys pull off an upset against the Saints tonight than that verifying.

  19. Let’s take a poll regarding the snow contest…

    Option 1 is Boston Logan and JP Dave’s knowing that there may be a slight in accuracy in that he is not available 24/7 to measure snow.
    Option 2 is to continue what we did last year with the set of major cities around southern New England.

    What would you folks like to do?

      1. I already posted #s for option 1 on the contest page.

        How about both options and those can choose either or both? πŸ™‚

      1. I like option 1 as well especially since Logan started off with a lousy 0.1 inch while most others are already off with a very fast start. I bet Worcester already has a good 6-8”+ so far.

    1. In truth…most just pay attention to the Boston amounts when all is said and done.

      How many inches did you have JPD?

  22. Regardless of which option we choose the deadline would normally be November 30th but will put it at December 2nd. Everybody has an equal head start with the snow that has already occurred.

  23. From Eric Fisher
    Guidance trending a little flatter/farther south with the next significant storm risk (Wednesday) but I wouldn’t write it off at this point. Location likely to wobble around for the next couple days.

  25. That storm that just went by absolutely blew up in the Maritimes today. 950mb east of Nova Scotia and the strength of a major hurricane! Nova Scotia has been hit hard.

    Brett Ruskin‏Verified accountο‚™ @Brett_CBC Β· 8h8 hours ago
    BREAKING: According to our news archives, this is Nova Scotia’s worst power outage since Hurricane Juan in 2003.
    (Today has seen 249,000 customers affected. Tropical Storm Arthur in 2014 had 245,000 customers affected.)

  27. If that run of the GFS verifies most of Virginia with the exception of the far southeast part will have more snow than Boston for the season.

  29. I was talking to Eric Fisher on twitter, and he does not believe that any warm spell middle of the month will have any legs and if it does actually happen it will be marginal.

  32. New post!

    Off for a medical test (routine) then home to recover then finish the last of my decoration marathon. πŸ™‚

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