Friday Forecast

71 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Making no changes today. Tranquil day today with a small area of high pressure overhead but clouds will roll in ahead of a weakening disturbance which, moving right along, may bring a touch of light snow/rain to parts of the region tonight before departing early Saturday. Most places will see nothing from it. Broad low pressure will move in Saturday night into Sunday, bringing milder air and a period of rain. A surface boundary will likely set up somewhere near or north of the Mass Pike, south of which will be the mildest air during the day. This boundary may lift a little north during the night into early Monday before a stronger cold front arrives Monday night to bring colder air back by Tuesday. At that time we will already be watching the approach of another low pressure area from the southwest that previously has been talked about as a snow threat, and still is, but not a great threat as far as we can see with any confidence. Although it remains something to watch.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light rain and/or snow possible. Lows 30-36. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving late from west to east, may start as a mix with some snow and/or sleet higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 32-38. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain, drizzle, areas of fog morning. Cloudy with areas of drizzle and chance of a rain shower southern NH and northern MA, mostly cloudy with a slight risk of a rain shower southern MA, eastern CT, and RI afternoon. Highs 42-48 southern NH and northern MA, 48-55 southern MA, eastern CT, and RI. Wind light variable northern areas, south to southwest 10-20 MPH southern areas.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing rain or snow shower evening. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight risk of snow late. Temperatures fall to the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Potential snow December 5 but system may pass largely south of the region. Watching for a disturbance that may bring snow showers late December 6 into December 7 otherwise mainly dry. Another system may threaten with snow/mix later December 8 into December 9 but highly uncertain. Temperatures below normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Still expecting the majority of the subtropical jet stream energy to remain to the south with minor systems in the polar jet stream bringing light precipitation threats and keeping temperatures near to mostly below normal.

71 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK. Good luck today!

    re: 12/5
    I still think it is a swing and a miss, but there’s still several days for that to change, so
    we’ll see.

    re: 12/8-12/9
    Interesting. Models having a difficult time figuring that one out.
    Both the GFS-FV3 and the Euro have a very potent coastal hugger/inside runner
    with a thump of snow to Rain over SNE and a big dump of snow up North. Given all
    of the recent scenarios, these solutions “might” be the closest to how it actually
    plays out. Plenty of wiggle room given it is 8 or 9 days out. Funny, this one event could make the bulk of the snow for the season OR could contribute Nothing. A real watcher none-the-less.

  6. Kind of quiet in the old neighborhood this morning. I guess we need an ole fashion
    N’oreaster to stir up the pot. 😀

  7. I find it interesting that words like “potential” and “uncertain” rarely are used regarding a rain event. This Sunday has been forecasted for more than a week and likely will not disappoint. 😉

    1. I was just thinking about that. I have been watching this weekend storm for the last 10 days as I had been hoping the forecast would change and I could get up to VT and go skiing Sunday to take advantage of all this new snow. No such luck. The forecast for a lakes cutter and all-rain event focusing on Sat night – Sunday has been unwavering in the model forecasts for the last 7-10 days. They have been remarkably consistent. Meanwhile, the models have been and continue to be all over the place with the two subsequent coastal storm/snow threats next week.

  9. Thanks TK. Hope the test goes well!

    November 30 always feels like a big transition day to me. Last day of meteorological fall. Also the last official day of hurricane season. All the focus shifts to winter now. Although, today, there will be a lot of eyes on severe weather with a potentially significant late season outbreak on the way this evening in the Arklatex region.

  11. Snow prediction deadline for Boston (logan) and Boston (JPD’s home) is Sunday….well, more like Monday really since I don’t turn my computer on during the weekends

    So far I have JJ, JPD, Philip and mine. A gentle reminder that I will not see them unless they are on the contest page. Thank you!!

  12. 12z GFS and CMC a complete non-event for the Tuesday-Wednesday system (12/4-5). I think we can write this one off.

    Both models have a direct hit though with the coastal storm threat around 12/9-10. Would be a coastal hugger verbatim as modeled but plenty of time to watch it.

    12z GFS for 12/10:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018113012&fh=240

    12z GGEM for 12/10:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018113012&fh=240

    The timing and position of this storm at 240 hours out is nearly identical on both models.

    FV3 is still running…

  13. Mr. Loopy reporting in. Got home at 11 and still recovering from sedation. Wow good stuff. 😉

    Have to drink a lot of water today to flush the medication out, basically. Taking it easy for a bit now, then finishing the final decorating.

    All on track with forecast.

    Regarding the use of potential for rain events. That’s a misconception. It’s used just as much for rain threats as it is for snow threats. Just think of how much more closely you pay attention to possible snow events. If the word “snow” is included the event automatically becomes scrutinized run to run to run to run for days on end.

    1. It is and it isn’t…when you have a storm passing the west and it is an all rain scenario, there are less things that can go wrong with your forecast. Ptype isn’t an issue. It just comes down to the timing of precip and exact amounts. And no one notices as much when you screw up amounts in a rain forecast vs a snow forecast. I think that aids in the misconception (and truth?) that rain storms are easier to forecast.

    3. I have noticed over the years that there is so much more “nowcasting” with snow events. Not one rain event this fall has “underachieved” or shifted its track at the last minute.

      1. That still doesn’t really work. Precipitation type, depending on atmospheric profile in any given location, is irrelevant. We have just been in a pattern of productive rain events (and one snow event). Notice that even the snow event over-achieved many forecasts? It’s about the weather pattern, not weather someone seems rain or snow.

  14. Snow predictions…

    Boston/Logan – 48.2″
    Boston/JP – 62.4″ (or another 58″ or so on the season)

    Rationale:

    1. All of Canada to our north is COLD with plenty of deep snow cover that isn’t going anywhere soon. Northern New England also has deep early season cover. Availability of cold air will not be a problem. While I do not agree with Dave that the current pattern of cutters will continue to be the predominant theme this winter, should we get a few, the prevalence of cold air and blocking to our north would provide a favorable scenario for cold air damming and up front “thump” of snow even with those systems (similar to what we saw a few weeks ago).

    2. Active subtropical jet in weak El Nino pattern. Favors storm development over the Gulf coast and SE US coast. While we may be in a spilt flow pattern a lot this winter resulting in some of these storms be shunted out to sea harmlessly, I think the block to our north relaxes at times to allow some of these storms to ride up the coast. It only takes a few of these to quickly get up to average or above avg. snowfall on the winter.

    3. High snow ratios as Tom alluded to. Very cold air in place towards late Jan-Feb will lead to a dry powdery snow from storms passing to our southeast. We could conceivably get a couple storms in, say February, that drop only 1 inch of melted precip, and get 15-20″ of snow out of them, while still ending up with near to below normal precip on the month.

    4. Active polar jet will yield a number of clipper systems even in the scenario where we have a split flow setup and the southern storms go out to sea. Even a few tenths of precip from these more moisture starved systems could end up resulting in a moderate snowfall with ratios. A few of these can add up over the course of the winter as well.

    Thus, call me biased, but I am still on board for above average snowfall on the winter!

    Vicki, I added this to the Contests page as well.

    1. Mark, interesting.
      Curious as to your reasoning for such a discrepancy between JP and Logan,
      There are about 5 miles or so separating my house from the airport.
      Although JP typically receives more snow, I do not believe the disparity
      to be anywhere as large as you are depicting. That is a 14 inch discrepancy, while I think that something in the order of 2-6 inches would be normal, 14 would
      be highly unusual imho. True, I have no concrete data to back this up, it is
      just my impressions from many past seasons.

      Anyway, I enjoyed reading your predictions. Thanks

      1. You are already up 4.5″ on Logan on the season. That only means you need to get 10″ more than them the rest of the winter. Anytime there is a marginal event, a R/S line, or coastal front setting up, I notice that you always report more snow than Logan. Actually, I cant even recall a time when you have reported less than Logan 🙂 Thus, if you are reporting 1-2″ more with every event, it doesn’t take long to pick up those extra 10″ at all. In fact, I might not have enough variance in there!

    2. I saw it on the contest page and recorded it. Thank you, Mark. I also enjoyed reading your reasoning.

      Mine is a little simpler. I pick a favorite number for Logan and add 11 😉

    1. Looks and feels like snow but nothing yet. Even though the weather channel app told me the snow started 5 min ago….

        1. It’s 41 at my house in JP, so I suspect IF it gets here,
          it will at least start as rain and perhaps all fall as rain.

          We shall see and no matter, not a big deal in the least. 😀

    2. My father was stationed there during the Korean War and experienced an earthquake, albeit not a strong one.

      1. The video coverage is awful. No fatalities reported. I had a close friend that was in the 1964 earthquake in Alaska. It was 9.2. Since that time they have taken the same precautions CA has for buildings, etc.

        1. I clearly remember the 1964 quake. It was frightening.
          The video and photos of the destruction were absolutely
          terrifying!

    1. My Euro service is Soooooooooooooo SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!!!
      It is only out to hour 90, so I have no clue how far North the precip gets
      on the 12Z run.

    2. I can say, that it would be PLENTY cold enough for snow and ANY precip
      that would make it here would be in the form of SNOW.

  22. If there will be any more wide snow discrepancies between JPD and Logan, they would likely occur during December when the ocean is at its warmest.

      1. I figured it doesn’t matter if we get anything on the 9th. The simple fact that the possibility has been there for the 9th is a wink from Mac on our 40th anniversary

        But I’ll still love waiting to see. Anticipation, as always, is half the joy.

    1. Yes, but that is 7 days and does not include 12/9 or 12/10, which could get
      mighty interesting. Even the 0Z GFS is much closer, so we shall see.

  30. Good morning and happy Saturday and welcome to December, the 1st day of
    meteorological Winter.

    Well the 5th is down the tubes and it is increasingly more likely that the 9th will be
    down the drain as well. What looked like a promising event now “appears” to be headed OTS suppressed to our South due to split flow and lack of phasing. Today is only 12/1, so there is still 8-9 days for things to change as they seem to be changing daily. Still needs to be watched.

    We are going out for a big dinner on the 9th for our SIL’s 50th birthday, so this
    in one time I won’t be disappointed if it is a miss. 😀 Which is why things will probably change and we’ll get hammered.

    1. Lack of phasing is going to be the story of the cold season, but with a very cold winter and strong enough polar jet in the right position leads to me to my colder/drier forecast.

      That said, don’t write off those systems passing to the south, especially the second one.

      1. I have only written off the 5th. Just not liking what I see for the 9th, but it is too far off for me to write it off.

  31. 6z GFS gets fringe effects to CT southern RI southeast MA and the Cape and Islands for the 9th. Mid Altantic gets hammered. I have seen this so many times where a storm goes from a hit to being suppressed to going missing only to reappear and start trending north 48-72 hours from the time the storm hit us.

    1. Unlike his son, who was president in the early 2000s He cared about the environment, he was a big reason for the Boston Harbor Clean up.

      1. To me the loss of a great man should transcend politics. I admire both Bushes for their love of country and their dedication to it. My heart grieves for Bush Jr. and his family.

  36. New post! A few sneaky snow chances in the 15 days ahead. Remember what I said about the medium range models.

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