Wednesday Forecast

67 Comments

2:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)
High pressure will bring chilly and dry weather to the region for the next few days but the air flow between it and low pressure passing well south of New England will be enough to help develop a few snow showers in some east coastal areas later today and this evening. A fast-moving cold front will cross the region between late Thursday and early Friday, reinforcing the cold air for the weekend as another high pressure area moves in.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun filtered through high cloudiness, also coastal lower clouds move in with a slight risk of isolated light snow showers, mainly Cape Cod this afternoon. Highs 32-38. Wind light N shifting to NE then back to N.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of light snow showers MA South Shore early evening, and Cape Cod again late eveningLows 15-22. Wind light NW to W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 34-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows 18-25. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers in the morning. Highs 30-36. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)
A broad low pressure area passing south of the region December 10-11 should be close enough to bring mix/snow to at least the South Coast and possibly far enough north to impact more of the region with the potential for accumulating snow – will watch and fine tune. Advancing milder air will bring cloudiness back and some light precipitation later December 12 into December 13 followed by a fair and milder end to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)
This period likely starts mild as a high pressure ridges transits across the eastern US including the Northeast, then a turn back to more seasonable chill may be preceded by brief wet weather around December 18-19.

67 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Cold this morning.

    I think the last 2 clear mornings, Venus has been easily visible in the eastern sky.

  3. Thanks TK.

    Still watching that storm threat for early next week. Pretty good model agreement now that it stays south of SNE, but like TK I still see enough that makes me think it has a chance to come farther north. It may stay south, but definitely too early to write off.

    A little side note on something interesting to watch for today: invariably every winter we talk about Norlun troughs a couple times, and I tend to be quick to mention that the majority of them underperform compared to model forecasts while once in awhile you’ll get one that actually produces a localized significant snow event. We may see one of the latter variety today on the Jersey shore. Take a look at the band over Atlantic City right now. Some of the hi-res guidance last night showed several inches over that narrow region, and so far things are tracking towards the more aggressive guidance. Perhaps a private snowstorm on the way for that area- keep an eye on the radar there today. Not far from where my new home will be in a few days!

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-1-48

    1. I can’t get the link to work but it could be because I’m using an iPad. Very 8nterestin, however. Thank you.

    2. I have a few friends in that area that always ask me about the weather there so I’ll be watching that closely today.

    4. WxWacther, do you start on the 10th?

      As a newbee, I presume you got some sort of night and/or weekend shift?
      We will want to know when to look at Mt. Holly discussions and what will the forecaster name/initials be?

      Many thanks and wishing you nothing but the best with this position.

      1. The 10th is my first day. However, as a new hire, it will be quite some time before I’m writing up the forecast discussions. There’s plenty of training involved over the first few weeks, and even beyond that I’ll primarily be in a support role for awhile. That’s standard procedure. The forecast shifts are mainly left for more experienced (and higher paid 🙂 ) forecasters. But within a few months I’ll start getting some opportunities with that as well. I’ll certainly let you know when that happens.

        1. Understood. Thank you.

          Have you determined whether or not you will still
          be able to drop in here and post occasionally? That would be awesome, if possible.

  5. Thanks, TK…
    Good morning…19 degrees this morning

    I promised Taunton rainfall totals for y’all. I have two minutes to post them:
    Taunton broke its all-time yearly rainfall record on Monday. We now stand at 67.97. I used the measurements at the National Weather Service. The previous record was 67.23 in 1898.

    Eric Fisher reported last night of 69.96″ in Taunton measured by a COOP observer.
    Norton has 68.56″ Kingston is number 1 at 71.09″. He also has mentioned that this is pretty remarkable for a year without a direct tropical cyclone.

    For Meterological Fall, we had 28.12″

    The bell’s going to ring. Can I post weather/holiday trivia questions if I have time later today or tomorrow? Is that okay?

    Catch y’all later! Best!

    1. Awesome info. So we did break the record. And I hadn’t thought about a tropical cyclone being absent

      I’ll watch for your holiday quiz.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Got to 19 at my house in JP, but didn’t feel that cold as there was not all that much wind.

  7. euro ensembles alot more regional , south of the pike specials and fringe events, much less just going out to sea and several of the ones going out to sea are close.

  9. Ryan Hanrahan had been tweeting last night about the models coming in more robust with that Norlun trough and highlighted the potential for the private snowstorm that southern NJ is getting today.

    However, looks like the NWS in Mt Holly blew it with their forecast and discussion yesterday. Probably a bunch of people caught off guard today….

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1070360608791584775

    That’s OK though, WxWatcher will turn that office around 🙂

    1. In fact, Mt Holly didn’t even issue the winter weather advisory until 9:11AM this AM after the event had already begun.

    2. John Homenuk‏ @jhomenuk · 14m14 minutes ago

      As the inverted trough continues to unfold today in SE NJ, worth a reminder that the HRDPS and RGEM guidance did a fantastic job. I have already seen some reference to the fact that this was a surprise, and that’s simply not true. If it was missed, it was by poor forecasting.

      John Homenuk‏ @jhomenuk · 47m47 minutes ago

      In a general sense, I try to give the NWS the benefit of the doubt most of the time. However, we are on a very bad run in this local area – and this is very bad. The lack of communication of uncertainty or potential is one of the most consistent problems. #njwx

  10. 12z GFS, FV3, CMC, and ICON are all still a miss for the Monday storm threat.

    CMC is very close though….gets the northern fringe of precip up to Long Island and Nantucket.

    1. Watch as it comes closer and closer! We seem to get most percipitation on mondays into tuesdays the past few months lol

  11. 12Z Euro is even more suppressed than previous runs.

    UNLESS, there is a significant change once the energy comes ashore “about” 12Z tomorrow morning, then I am just about ready to declare this upcoming system
    a miss. Also, there needs to be a little give in the Northern stream. The Northern stream is just so Strong that the Southern stream hasn’t a chance and it probably won’t matter when it does comes ashore.

    We shall see.

    1. Unfortunately, when the 2 jet streams phase in the early part of the winter, they will do so sharply and west of us enough that the systems will be warm, inside runners, much like seen at hr 216 on the EURO.

        1. I think prospects for colder storms will increase deeper in the winter as arctic air gets more and more of a hold in eastern Canada.

          2. I agree. We are still two weeks away from the winter solstice. Way too early to be writing off winter!

            (I think I should set this comment to auto post every year around this time…..) 🙂

  15. Quick check-in. I’ll be on the road for several hours from late afternoon to late evening.

    * Now: Snow showers working toward CC. Forecast above remains as is. Only slight difference is the mid level moisture from the west is a bit more than I anticipated and while it’s dry at the surface don’t rule out a few flakes reaching the surface in the higher elevations to the NW of Boston next couple hours. Otherwise the coastal snow showers should be near CC late-day then kiss the South Shore this evening before heading back toward CC as the wind shifts.

    * Later: Jury’s out still on the storm threat early next week. Odds continue to favor a miss but I still am not ready to write that off.

    * Even Later: Magnitude of warm-up will be tempered by extensive snowcover in Canada. Length of warm-up TBD but I still think shorter as opposed to longer, or in 2 stages with an interruption between.

    * There are 4 to 6 shots at snow before Christmas. This is based on timing of energy, educated guess on split jet configuration, and other factors. And when I say “shots at snow before Christmas” don’t translate that into “shots at getting big snowstorms to guarantee a white Christmas”. That is NOT EVEN CLOSE to a guarantee anywhere right now. Just gauging the pattern looking ahead a bit. I may have been mistaken forecasting above normal snowfall for December, however, it’s only going to take 1 or 2 systems of any magnitude to make that forecast verify for at least part of the region. How many times in the past have we looked at “the models” to see nothing that looks remotely snowy only to be digging out from snow events just a matter of days later? Yeah, that’s how things go sometimes. 🙂

    Have a great afternoon / evening all!

  17. So excited to hear that TK is predicting a white Christmas this year!! Now I am really getting into the Christmas spirit. 🙂

    1. If it pushes back just enough, the Northern stream “may” relax just enough
      to allow precip into SNE, especially MA/NH border South or perhaps Pike South.
      Somewhere in there. Still needs to be monitored.

  21. If it pushes back just enough, the Northern stream “may” relax just enough
    to allow precip into SNE, especially MA/NH border South or perhaps Pike South.
    Somewhere in there. Still needs to be monitored.

  22. Latest CPC 8-14 day outlook says well above normal temps and precip. If that isn’t coal in one’s stocking just prior to Christmas. 🙁

    1. When I was young, all of us children were misbehaved and we all actually
      received lumps of coal in out Christmas Stockings. 😀

      Then, of course, the real presents.

    3. Above normal temps in that window is probably a good bet; for precip, they’re hedging on a major rainmaker in about 10 days. If we get 2-3″ rain from that one system, then we’ll have well above normal precip also. But most of the next two weeks will be dry, especially if the storm early next week misses us, which is starting to look pretty likely from today’s data.

  23. Places on the NJ shore have more snow for the season thanks to the private snowstorm they had than Boston.

  24. This winter is going to be frustrating with all these systems going to out south or just brushing us. A few will make it up here and put us closer to average due to high snow ratio’s but the large amount of the systems will stay to our south. We probably see a better handle on this system come tomorrow/Friday I still have hope. Of course I rather it just say south if I don’t get anything around my area.

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