Thursday Forecast

83 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Cold and dry is the theme of this period with the only event of any note being a reinforcing cold front moving through tonight which may produce some snow showers. With more confidence I can now say that a storm we were watching for early next week will pass well south of this area.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, clouds arrive later. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind 10-15 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-16 except 17-22 urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts early.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 10s, coldest away from urban location. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Dry/cold December 11. Clouds arrive with a slight risk of light snow/mix later December 12 as warmer air advances toward the region. Milder with a few rain showers possible December 13. A stronger storm system possible, likely rain, during the December 14-15 period as the weather pattern at that time would have a ridge of high pressure to the east of New England and a storm track through the Great Lakes, sending temperatures to above normal levels.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)
Turning colder with snow showers possible to start this period. Confidence lower thereafter as temperatures probably start seasonably chilly then moderate slightly while not ruling out 1 or 2 passing systems with some precipitation.

83 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Model watchers: For the fun of it, go to the 00z runs today using tropical tidbits site and find the forecast valid at 00z December 16, and compare GFS, FV3-GFS, and ECMWF.

    1. Thank you for the new post, TK.

      And even for nonmodel watchers….this might be a fun little thing to try and figure out. I plan to once I have some of the day behind me! Thanks!

      2. At first appearance, perhaps looking similar, but with completely different set-ups.

        EURO builds strong high pressure in eastern Canada. If one looks at progression of storm, it barely moves from hr 216 to 240.

        GFS and FV3_GFS does not have that high pressure in eastern Canada and appears to be much more progressive than the EURO.

        Lesson : maintain focus on short term and use long term for trends only.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    So far, my fears for the season are being realized as we either get
    cold with the storms suppressed to the South OR it warms up with the storms
    passing West of us. So what else is new!

    I HATE THIS!()@&#*&!*()@#&*(!@&#*(&!@*(#&!*(@&#*(!&@(*#&!(@*

    1. It’s not even winter & you have no idea how it’s going to turn out . I’m sure you will have plenty of snow it’s just a matter of time .

      1. I don’t think so.

        Doesn’t matter what I want or what you want as it will do what it will do.

        You know that old saying:

        There will be Weather today Whether you like it or not!

  5. You all need to pay closer attention to my WHW Forecasting Model. Over 100 posts you pay closer attention to other models. 150 or more we are definitely getting a snow storm of some type. 300 comments or more the storm is already here.

      1. If a snow storm does not brighten my day, I have to say that your comments surely do. I love your enthusiasm mixed with your sense of humor.

  9. Thanks TK!

    Suppression it is with the early week system. That’s a missed snow opportunity for sure. But maybe not a big surprise. As TK often says, easier to snow coming out of a warm period than a cool one. The pattern we’re entering, especially as this cool shot departs, is textbook El Nino. Shades of 2015, though the warmth in the Northeast won’t be nearly as extreme as it was then. In Canada, the warm anomalies will be more impressive and prolonged. But that will certainly keep the Arctic air at bay for us. And a very active southern stream jet will continue.

  11. We shall see what happens throughout today’s model runs but it really does look like this sucker will be well out to sea as in off the mid atlantic coast or going outside the benchmark far enough so it does not impact us but impacts the fishes of Stalwagons.

  12. Its only Dec 5th people, you need to chill out!!!! Its going to snow. Every year i read how winter is over before it even starts. Many of those times we ended up with above avg snow. Which i think will happen this year.

  13. we shall see if the weather models keep the bulk of the snowfall in interior North Carolina or not. Kind of funny that the original gfs showed this first a while back and a certain facebook meteorologist said it was garbage….

  14. I called my aunt in Elizabeth City NC and snow is expected there this upcoming weekend. Hard to believe that my Mid-Atlantic relatives may have a better shot at a white Christmas than me here in Boston.

    1. Can’t say that on December 6th. You’re correct that right now systems are suppressed and to our south. But, the warm-up in mid December will impact the Mid Atlantic even more than New England, melting away anything they get this week. Furthermore, it would appear that systems after that have more of a chance of giving New England frozen precipitation and the Mid Atlantic a mix or rain, as temps look to be marginal.

  15. Thank you, TK.

    I really enjoy this weather. You know why; because it’s consistently dry and sunny. I haven’t been able to say that for many, many months, at least not on consecutive days. Even when it was `dry’ during the summer it was often humid which made it feel awful. Then all autumn we endured a never-ending barrage of gray, showers, and steady rain, with an occasional dry day thrown in. Now, I can enjoy the reprieve from precipitation.

    1. I should add that I like the cold, too. It’s certainly not bitter. But, it is crisp. The air seems cleaner (I know that’s partly imagination).

    2. What I loved most about upper Midwest winters: the very cold but very sunny high pressure days following clipper systems. Powdery snow, dry, dry air, extreme cold tempered by brilliant sunshine, the kind that can warm you up even when the temperature is below zero. Those are the best winter days. Seems like they’ll be less plentiful here in New England than back home.

  17. SM, we do have the kind of days you describe. Not as many as the Upper Midwest, but still. Also, don’t be fooled by the rainy autumn. It was NOT typical of New England. What you will likely find more difficult to handle is our frequent extended winter, from March to May. That period here is usually not dry, not sunny on a consistent basis, and often raw and unsettled.

    1. Yup,

      That would be some very light snow or possibly rain, but sure to be rain
      near the coast. Likely not reaching the ground, except perhaps over
      higher terrain.

  20. SM, where in the Mid West were you located?

    Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison, Green Bay, Minneapolis, Bemidji, Bismark, or Pierre???

    Just some wild guesses, 😀

  21. To continue the theme of earlier today…

    12z runs valid 12z Sunday December 16.

    GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018120612&fh=240

    FV3-GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018120612&fh=240

    ECMWF: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018120612&fh=240

    3 runs initiated with same data, valid for same time, 3 completely different solutions.

    1. I wonder if the runways are like paved roads in that when it’s been dry, a rainfall will bring up oils and make things more slick than had there been regular rains.

  23. “John” & “SM” … You’ll both be able to see this so here is your public call-out. For the moment I am going to refrain from using your real names because I’m not that kind of person (so don’t force me into doing it because I will if necessary).

    You both already had your chances to act like adults on my blog and you both got yourselves tossed for choosing to act like children. One of you, especially, holding such a high position in your professional life, surprises me greatly that you’d stoop to such a low level. Sad. Take a look in the mirror and tell yourself you’re proud of trying to get back here to just cause irritation, and you damn well know that’s all the 2 of you were plotting to do. How about this. Email me: woodshillweather@gmail.com and chat with me about it like adults. I’m guessing neither of you will since neither of you are probably capable of it. If you want to continue to try to use the methods I have asked you nicely to stop, then I won’t have a problem going after you for harassment.

    Good day “gentlemen”, a word I use very loosely here.

    Carry on folks. There’s nothing more to see here. 🙂

    1. For the record, SM was not him. I’ll leave it up to you to decide who it was. I’m going to refrain from using their names for the time being. But if you think about it you’ll figure it out. The clue lies in the reply you just posted.

      Anyway that’s all I’m going to say about it. 🙂

      1. You have me totally lost. I don’t know what is going on…
        Does crackrock some how equate to blackstone?????????

      1. I meant I had SM pegged for Charlie at first, but he actually turned out to be Blackstone. At least I believe that was what TK was implying. The other fake poster was Charlie (take 3). That is my guess based on TKs clues.

    1. Of course. Makes perfect sense. Seriously, I am NOT with it today. One of those days. I just don’t go there because I just don’t want to think anyone would do such a thing. Oh well. Thanks

  26. the afternoon ensembles are all in agreement with the storm going off the southeast coast and going out to sea, none of them have it going up the coast. If we wanted this thing to go up the coast it would be been up here around Tuesday/Wednesday but it looks to have taken the faster approach and will likely go well south of the region. GFS ensembles and the other models are all in agreement. The thing thats not set in stone is where is the bulk of the snowfall…. Interior North-Carolina or Interior Virginia and the trend has been to send it to interior northern areas of North Carolina with a sharp cutoff some where in central Virginia.

  27. Offtopic: Worried about the dolphins v patriots game on sunday. It’s going to be hot and brady is 1-5 in december @ miami.

    1. You should be worried . This game has been tough ever since I was young . I call this the classic trap game & the dolphins stink this year . No matter the record the stats have proved the pats play them hard at home & the dolphins play the pats hard in there yard.

      1. Yep. It will be blazing hot for pats players whose bodies have adjusted to the cold temps. Additionally, in division coaches have such a keener sense of the other teams that naturally they are tough. Another stat: All the games the dolphins have won this year except one have been at home. Ouch.

      1. I think this year will be an outlier ….

        Why ? The running game, which Miami has rarely had to defend when the Pats are in Miami.

        Sony Michel missed the Titans game, but is healthy now.

        A good running attack will hold that pass rush back that extra half second to give Brady the time he needs. Pats by 10+

  29. The only game I care about Sunday is hoping my Cowboys beat the Eagles and open a two game lead in the NFC East which would put them in the driver seat with a sweep of Philly, Washington too many injuries, and NY too far back 4-8.

  30. Interesting that the temperature has risen a couple of degrees in the last two hours.

    We are 31 up from 29

  31. Another Brady Dec. in Miami stat: 9 TDs-10 INTs

    At least back in the day, Miami really was a great team with Don Shula as coach so the many losses down there over the years were understandable. Makes no sense at all with the Brady/Belechick combo.

    Hopefully they win come Sunday! 🙂

Comments are closed.