Tuesday Forecast

86 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 18-22)
A piece of arctic air comes across New England today on gusty northwest winds under a bright but low angle sun mixed with clouds as we approach the winter solstice, which will occur Friday late-day and during weather much different than what starts this 5-day forecast period. The transition from here to there will be rather tranquil as high pressure moves overhead Wednesday then offshore Thursday with moderating temperatures. Friday’s weather will resemble spring a little more than the first day of winter as we see low pressure track just west of the region, dragging some warm air with tropical moisture up the eastern seaboard. By Saturday, we’ll be getting a drying westerly wind but with cold air lagging it will still be mild.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Chance of thunderstorms late-day or evening. Temperatures steady in the 40s then rising into the 50s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Risk of rain showers early. Temperatures fall from the 50s to the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 23-27)
Colder air and a passing disturbance may produce some snow showers during the December 23-24 period. Fair and seasonably cold thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)
Milder to start the period, a weather system bringing some precipitation, rain favored over snow, about December 29, then fair with a seasonable chill returning.

86 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Had a moderate to briefly heavy snow pellet squall about 1AM here in Woburn, coating the ground. No thunder here. That was in the cells to the south. Pretty potent dynamics for this time of year and that time of day. Fun stuff!

  4. Woke up around 1:30 a.m. or so and wind suddenly picked up. Strong, gusty wind. No thunder here. I was still up about an hr. or so later and glanced out the window to see 1/2 or so of snow. Later on in morning heard there were squalls. Wish I had looked out the window when the wind picked up. We might have been having a snow squall then.

    1. My sprint to the window to look assured I wouldn’t fall back to sleep for a few hours. You were wise not to go to window.

  5. Thank you TK

    Repeat from this morning on Monday blog

    Woke up around 2:30 to what sure sounded like thunder and looked out to see a coa5ing of snow.

    20 with gusts into the high teens

  6. Good morning,
    Over night snow shower/squall? in JP that dusted the ground white. When I went out this morning, ground was still dusted white. I stuck my fingers in it, so there was some very minor depth to it. I am confidently saying 1/10 inch making my season total: 4.85 inches. 😀

      1. Yes, it is. Even on the Euro. I think we’re screwed.
        IF SNOWPOCALYPSE materializes, then I don’t care. 😀 😀

        But, of course that won’t happen.

  8. Some streets in my neighborhood early this morning were somewhat slippery but sidewalks generally dry, almost perfect for walking. Usually it is the reverse. Also my front steps were snow covered.

  9. Lot of my decorations got blown off the roof , hung wreath in windows etc . The wind is crazy here since last night .

    1. It is trash day today on my street so all of the trash was put out last night.
      This morning there was trash strewn all over the neighborhood. Quite a mess.

    2. So far our teak aisle manger and deer are up. The manger has long posts that have bent in the past where they meet the ground but the manger stood. The rods for the three deer are shorter so I have my fingers crossed

  13. I have two holiday trivia questions for you that I wanted to post two weeks ago.
    Here they are, offered in the spirit of the holidays:

    In the song, “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” how many presents TOTAL did my true love give to me during the 12 days of Christmas? We are count the partridge in a pear tree as one gift.

    a) 12
    b) 78
    c) 364

    In the animated classic, “Rudolph, the Red-Nosed Reindeer,” what is the name of Rudolph’s girlfriend?

    a) Chouriço (pronounced “Sherr-EESE”)
    b) Cindy Lou
    c) Sally
    d) Clarice

    I have a weather question that I will post when I have more time.

    2. D on the 2nd.

      On the first, am I supposed to account for the constant building up and repeating in the song ??

  14. With the pattern the way it is, I believe that the FV3_GFS will trend towards a Lakes Cutter or inside runner and not a coastal or close to a coastal. In short, I think
    we are screwed. Plenty of time, but I highly doubt we see a big snow storm between
    now and the 1st week in January.

    If I read Dr. Cohen’s blog correctly, we may be waiting until the end of the 2nd
    week in January!

    We shall see.

      1. Ha Ha Ha. Presumably 2019, but who the bleep knows for sure. 😀

        Looks bleak through the next 10 days for sure. Although Euro shows and inch or 2 around the 26th,27th.

        We’ll see after that.

    2. I think in this pattern, if we look too far ahead, we’ll end up NOT anticipating a snow event that WILL get us in the mid range period (4 to 7 days out).

  15. 2 days ago model consensus was to take the main low for Friday’s system through the upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes, now it’s Hudson Valley. As you can see, model performance continues poor and they need to re-adjust more than usual. This plays into medium range forecasting quite a bit. With that in mind, while I do see an attempt at a more sustained colder pattern by the turn of the year, if this happened I would not be inclined to go with a stormy (in terms of snowy) pattern. However, none of this is said in great confidence. Nobody in their right forecasting mind can be all too confident right now. The inexactness of the science is turned up to high volume. 😉

    1. Fox News site had its lead headline today that polar vortex is set to crush the east coast. The first sentence is the east coast could be in one of its harshest in years. Then used Dr Cohen quotes who was using the GFS ensembles and ignoring all other guidance.

      Trends I see are storms will genarlly be further east and south then modled in the mid range. I think near normal to below normal temps with predominately dry conditions long range. Snow will come but look for it to come
      from fronts and shortwaves of Canadian origin than Tennessee valley energy ejecting off the NC coast, phasing and bombing at or near benchmark.

      It is winter. Everyone is different, past model good performance does not indicate current or future validity. I don’t even look at V3 and look for it to be delayed. Don’t bother polluting your mind with its putridity.

  16. Speaking for myself, someone with no meteorological experience, I find the state of today’s weather / modeling frustrated and disappointing for someone like me. Every run is different from the next run. Finally, a big snow storm shows up on one run, but then it is quickly discounted for whatever scientific reason.

    I know for the meteorological educated its not and is fascinating….. but not for me. You cant trust any run and therefore cannot track anything that disappears in 6 hours.

    ISS was the most interesting thing we’ve experienced in a while.

    1. The easiest solution to the above problem? Don’t look past 7 days. Certainly not beyond 10. The scientific reason for the discounting of something like what the FV3 has occasionally shown at 12-15 days out should be the same every time: that is beyond the period where humans or models have any skill whatsoever in forecasting. Meaning, statistically, you’ll do better just forecasting climatology to occur rather than actually trying to pin down a snowstorm at that range. It’s always been that way, and it will be until it isn’t. Maybe one day we will actually have skill at that range, but that day is not today.

  17. Gotta keep an eye on the river gauges with this next storm. Another widespread 1.5-2″ on the way up and down the coast, locally 3″+. Here in the mid-Atlantic we’re very saturated to begin with so we’re concerned about flooding. And in central/northern New England, it’s not as saturated now, but they’ll be dealing with a combination of rain and melting snow that could also cause problems. This storm will also bring more of its rain in a shorter period of time, which tends to be more problematic. Some potential coastal concerns as well with astronomically high tides.

    1. Yes this is a very reasonable concern for Friday and one that should get some attention starting tomorrow, as opposed to ominous PV headlines.

        1. From the places I have been in eastern and central MA it’s partially frozen but not totally solid yet.

        3. Captain not frozen enough in Sutton for me to have trouble pushing metal stakes for decorations into the ground

          Water is higher in framingham in the places I am familiar with than usual for this time. High as in if we continue we may see flooding by spring

  19. Trivia answers:

    1) C. 364. With every new day of Christmas, you get that day’s gifts plus all the gifts from the previous days. So, at the end of 12 days (January 6), you get 12 partridges in pear trees, 22 pipers piping. etc. I give this as a bonus question on a Spanish quiz this time of year. My students spend more time on this question than the Spanish! 🙂

    2) D. Clarice. Chouriço is spicy Portuguese sausage which is my favorite pizza topping at Marc Anthony’s Pizzeria in Onset Village.

  20. Speaking of “Rudolph”, even after 55 years, I still see something new when I watch it. Same thing with “The Godfather” and “The Godfather 2” but not nearly as intense! 🙂

    Here’s a screen shot of Santa when he realizes that he will have to cancel Christmas because of the “Storm of Storms.” If you look carefully in his right hand, Santa has a weather map. If you look even closer, you will see it’s the new GFS-FV3 at 156 hours! 🙂

    https://imgur.com/a/WROU0Je

    Happy 75th Birthday, Keith Richards!

    1. Last night my son and I watched a string of classics…
      Frosty The Snowman
      The Life And Adventures Of Santa Claus
      Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer
      Santa Claus Is Coming To Town
      The Year Without A Santa Claus
      Nestor The Long-Eared Christmas Donkey
      …and there was many newly discovered things. We end up being a little bit like Mystery Science Theater 3000 while watching these. 😉

  21. I just saw you mentioned a Christmas quiz Captain. I promise on all that is good I didn’t look at the answers. I don’t want to go back up to see the letters but know clarice and added up to 78. Now I’ll look. Sorry I missed it. Has been a more than crazy day

  22. 18z GFS and FV3 both still advertising a New Years storm. A warmer system on these runs, but it is consistently being shown in one form or another, at least for now.

  23. John Homenuk‏ @jhomenuk · 13h13 hours ago

    Last nights ECMWF Ensemble had a #SSW and stratospheric polar vortex split at 10hpa by 12/29. GFS deterministic run also has a similar evolution, and ensemble agreement remains strong that a #SSW is coming. #stratparty

  24. John Homenuk‏ @jhomenuk

    In addition, deterministic runs of the GFS have suggested 10hPa warming (K, 65-90N) to be on the outer fringes of climatology for this time of year. The #SSW is still in the longer range, so suggest proceeding cautiously, but ensemble agreement is growing. #stratparty

    John Homenuk‏ @jhomenuk · 13h13 hours ago

    Ensemble guidance (GEFS pictured) also continues to gradually trend toward a more impressive potential for a #SSW late month. Very good ensemble agreement at this range.
    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1075002486212214784

  25. And here is an excellent writeup from John Homenuk today explaining the Polar Vortex split, sudden stratospheric warming, and what all this might mean….

    On the Polar Vortex: What is hype, what isn’t, and how it may affect us

    https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/12/18/on-the-polar-vortex-what-is-hype-what-isnt-and-how-it-may-affect-us/

    His conclusion…..

    The stratospheric polar vortex, in its own right, is extremely important. As detailed, it has a huge impact on our sensible weather, even if often times indirectly. The tropospheric polar vortex, which you’re much more accustomed to hearing about – is not hype. It is real, and it does exist almost all of the time. What is hype, however, is the notion that it is some sort of unprecedented feature in the atmosphere.

    Over the next few weeks, forecast models suggest that a sudden stratospheric warming event might occur, which could eventually disrupt the tropospheric polar vortex as well. Overall, confidence is rising that higher latitude blocking will develop in Canada and parts of the Atlantic during January, which could lead to a colder and stormier pattern across the Northeast US and parts of Europe during that time and perhaps continuing into February.

    1. Hayden Frank‏ @Hayds1221 · 2h2 hours ago

      Hopefully there were not any injuries with the tornado that touched down west of Seattle. Although temps were quite cool in the lower 50s with limited overall Instability. The 0-3 km cape/lapse rates and low level helicity were adequate. Similar to #SNE tornadoes in October.

      2. Pacific Coast tornadoes are more likely to occur in the cold season than the summer. Quite rare indeed.

  30. Yeah I’m having a Muppets Christmas evening…
    John Denver & The Muppets “A Christmas Together” from 1979, “John Denver & The Muppets “Rocky Mountain Christmas” from 1983, “A Muppet Family Christmas” from 1987, “The Muppet Christmas Carol” from 1992 starring Michael Cane as Scrooge, and “Muppet Letters To Santa” from 2008.

    1. The best of the best Christmas movies IMO is Christmas Eve on Sesame Street. Mac and I watched every Christmas Eve with our kids and they do with theirs.

          1. It is not easy to find. Our dvd was corrupted. I think my youngest said she saw it on Netflix or demand this year

  31. Hi to all WHW family members. I have been a woods hill weather lurker for a long time now, since the wbz days and have followed you over here to this blog. I have finally decided to come out of the woodwork to take part in the art and fun of weather prognostication with all of you. I am from southern Worcester county, approximately 15 miles west of Vicki. I’ve had a passion for weather since I was in kindergarten, coincidentally the year of the blizzard of 1978. That storm gave me the weather bug in which I’ve not been able to shake. I thoroughly enjoy this blog and the multitude of weather contributors such as Jp Dave, WX Watcher, SAK, JMA, And of course the one and only TK. The combined knowledge of everyone here is indispensable, and invaluable to a person like myself. I have a passion for weather but like Jp Dave did not pursue this a my career. I read this this blog several times a day and would very much like to contribute, even if in a minor capacity such as in weather obs from my neck of the woods during storms. I feel like I know all of you so well even though this is my first time posting. Vicki I love your enthusiasm and your positive attitude it is so uplifting. I can’t thank you enough TK for starting and maintaining this blog and for your weather knowledge and daily updates, all for free. This is something people pay big money to learn and you are giving this knowledge to all of us for free, so with that I give you a big THANK YOU!!!!!!! I could go on and on but I’m going to end it here and try to contribute on a regular basis in some fashion. With the winter season starting in 3 days let’s hope there are some big storms to track and light this blog up like a Christmas tree in the near future.

  32. Thank you mark.
    TK I never posted on the WBZ blog, just read it. I discovered that blog shortly before you started this one. I never posted on this blog for all these years because I never felt that I could contribute at the capacity that most here do, but having been reading this for years now I’ve finally come to the realization that in order to have a good conversation about weatherwith like minded people, you don’t have to have a degree in meteorology. You and others here do a good job of making the weather enthusiast feel comfortable posting here without the fear of being wrong.

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