Thursday Forecast

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 20-24)
High pressure moves offshore today, a very nice day by December standards despite fading sun later behind cloudiness ahead of what will be a potent storm, the center of which will pass just west of New England late Friday. This will allow warm air and tropical moisture to flow northward across southeastern New England making for a wet and fairly warm Winter Solstice day (solstice 5:23PM Friday). With ground still somewhat saturated from the wet autumn, flooding may again be an issue as some heavy rainfall will occur in waves with this system. Also, pockets of wind damage may occur due to a moderate to strong southerly wind. It will be unstable enough that thunderstorms are possible. The storm center will head across southeastern Canada Saturday, dragging drier air in behind it, with colder air eventually arriving as a cold front sweeps across the region. This will return seasonably chilly air to the region but with bright and fair weather for Sunday. A disturbance will pass over or just south of the region Monday, Christmas Eve, bringing the slight chance of scattered light precipitation.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely with embedded heavier showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 55-62. Wind S 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts likely all areas.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms, diminishing from west to east overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind S 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW and diminishing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts overnight.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers very early and a passing rain shower possible midday. Temperatures steady 48-55 morning, falling through the 40s afternoon. Wind SW shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures fall to the 30s then remain steady during the day.
MONDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers except rain showers South Coast. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 25-29)
Dry and seasonably cold December 25 (Christmas Day) through December 27. Risk of some rain/snow showers and slightly milder late period from a northern jet stream disturbance.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
Dry, seasonably chilly to end 2018. A storm system may bring some unsettled weather in the earliest days of 2019.

60 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and Thanks, TK…
    Can anyone tell me when the peak winds will be tomorrow in the Taunton/Middleborough area?

    1. I think later tomorrow afternoon into the evening has the strongest wind gust potential. I believe this is when the core of the low level jet will be passing overhead.

      Because our area in southeast Mass will most easily break into the warm sector, its likely to be breezy all day before that low level jet passes overhead.

  2. Thank you TK!
    Fun stuff around here tomorrow.
    Could it be a situation in which away from the coast you can hear the wind from the LLJ screaming just above us but not really mixing down to the surface?

    1. Could be, but a good portion of this may very well mix down, most especially
      if we get any convection going. NAM calling for wind gusts to 60 mph.

      Even Eric Fisher said that last night.

      Looks to be a WILD day. Let us hope no one is injured from any falling trees and/or debris.

  3. re; tomorrow

    Some pretty serious low level helicity: 0-1km

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018122012/036/srh01.us_ne.png

    And 0-3KM

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018122012/036/srh03.us_ne.png

    Just enough CAPE to possibly cause issues. 400-600 Joules

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018122012/036/mucape.us_ne.png

    “could” we possibly be looking at yet another one of these high-shear low-CAPE severe weather event

  4. Those links you posted JPDave are certainly not something we see in December.
    Its been a year where on multiple occassions we have seen these high shear low CAPE happen.

    1. Indeed. It hasn’t really been mentioned, but it worries me some.
      Not saying it will happen, just saying it is something we need to watch.

      WxWatcher is usually very tuned into these type situations. Hopefully, he
      will chime in. Not sure what shift he works with his new job/commitment.

  5. Surface wind gusts on the 12z NAM impressive tomorrow. Probably over done but if the rest of the 12z guidance shows these high wind gusts I would expect those wind alerts to cover more of SNE later today.

  6. Noprton NWS has mentioned the possibility of HSLC event.

    Severe potential,
    As previous forecaster noted, very high low lvl helicity values
    expected given the strength of the low lvl jet. With very
    shallow sfc inversion, should steeper lapse rates be allowed to
    develop within the warm sector, cannot rule out some convection.
    This does promote a very low risk for a spin-up in the form of
    a waterspout or isolated TOR across SE MA where sfc temps will
    be warmest. However this will be very isolated and strongly
    dependent on lower lvl stability which remains somewhat in
    question.

  7. JP Dave. Your absolutely correct about the convection bringing those strong winds to the surface. Good thing the trees have no leaves, that would certainly make the situation worse.

    1. wow, that really does hurt the patriots more than people will know, what an idiot, he had the ability to play with TB and possibly get in the playoffs for the first time in his career. Then again maybe he was the reason why the browns were so bad and we were struggling, He might of had some bad JUJU on him.

    2. What a crying shame. Very sad. Hey, they took a flyer on him and it didn’t work out. The fear all along was that he would produce for a while and then
      screw up just before the playoffs. Someone was a profit!

      The Pats really needed him. Unless the Gronkman can play up to his
      normal capabilities, the Pats are SCREWED!! They’ still make the playoffs,
      but they may be one and done and if not, certainly will not get out of
      the AFC championship game with a win. Nearly impossible.

      IF Gronk can be like himself, then they have a chance.

      Lately he has not even been close to what he is capable of doing.

      I honestly feel that this could be the last season for Both the Gronk and Brady.

        1. Gronk may well be done period. He has not played well this year. It is a shame really because he has such an amazing talent.

    1. I really wonder what the substance is, the nfl has rules against certain pain killers I believe even common off the shelf pain killers are even off limits. We all know what happened to Edelmen, took medication for his injury and found out that it had a banned substance in it.

      1. he also might not of actually used any illegal substance, he might have not followed the aggreement exactly or did not follow a simple rule to the tee of the nfl liking.

  8. Lots of lightning down in Florida and central gulf lots of energy. Looks similar setup of the super storm not quite as intense that happened in the early nineties.

  9. Superstorm the second biggest weather event for me growing up. Storm came in on Saturday and a former meteorologist said a few days prior the big khuna is coming Saturday and it did.

    1. Not sure which you are referring to, JJ. The March 13, 1993? Was my son’s ninth birthday – I believe you would have been nine that year also.

  10. The 93 Superstorm I was talking about. I turned 9 a month later on April 18th. I remember the snow coming close to my knee caps standing outside during the storm.

    1. I thought that would be it, JJ. I remember that you and my son are just a month apart in age and my brother’s son’s bday is April 11, 1984.

  11. “Slight” Chance of a little light snow Christmas eve day/eve.
    Euro and FV3-GFS show up to 1 inch. 😀 😀 😀

    Here’s hoping. We shall see.

  12. On the severe weather/tornado potential, that wording has actually been removed from the latest NWS Boston discussion. It is an extremely low risk in this case, even lower than normal in a setup like this because of the inversion and the lack of basically any surface instability. However, with the very strong LLJ, any convective elements, even elevated convection, would have the potential to produce locally damaging winds. Far and away, the main threat with this storm is the flooding, which could be quite extensive in some areas. Coastal flooding issues also for some areas, not along east coastal MA but the south coast of New England and down into Long Island and the mid-Atlantic. Likely a very active 24 hours ahead.

  13. Seriously? Mother Nature coulda have waited till after my deck time? Almost out the door before I noticed everything was a tad wet 🙁

  14. Good morning. 0.28 inch at my house in JP so far.
    Wind is slowing picking up, but so far no great shakes.

    Although, I do see current gusts at 40 mph at Norwood airport and TF Green Airport
    in Warwick, RI.

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