Sunday Forecast

69 Comments

8:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)
High pressure will bring bright, dry, and seasonably cold weather to the region today, perfect for any last minute shopping or an evening drive around to view the lights. A weak and fast-moving low pressure area but with decent upper level support will move across the region Monday, Christmas Eve, producing a minor snow event, although initially it will be too mild to support snowfall along the South Coast. High pressure builds in on Tuesday, Christmas Day, and gradually slides toward the region, moving overhead by Thursday, with dry and seasonably cold weather for the holiday and midweek.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy morning with a period of snow accumulating a coating to 1 inch except rain that may mix with snow South Coast. Variably cloudy afternoon with snow showers likely with additional dustings of snow possible. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, N 10-20 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Partly cloudy with a chance of snow flurries in eastern areas early, otherwise mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)
Low pressure will likely pass north of the region bringing a warm front / cold front combo to the region December 28 with a period of rain then a chance of rain showers. Breezy, chilly, drier weather returns December 29. Will watch a wave of low pressure that may bring a period of mix and/or snow to the region December 30 before dry weather to end 2018. Unsettled weather may return as early as the first day of 2019.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)
A boundary nearby may be the focus for a string of low pressure areas to bring unsettled weather in the form of several periods of precipitation of several varieties for at least a portion of this period.

69 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Each day brings a different outlook from the models. Can’t trust any of them.

    re: Tomorrow
    YAWN…

    2. I can’t yawn about tomorrow. It’s Christmas Eve! 🙂 I’m too excited! We’ll see some flakes about.

    1. They should have at least something up there. Jury’s out on the 28th event but that could go either way. I think they may get something around the 30th and again possibly right around the 1st (of course I’m getting way ahead of myself on timing but the idea is the pattern should support several opportunities).

  5. I just hope that there will be enough upper level support as stated above. Too often these type of snow events dry up after the Berkshires before the precip makes it to 495, let alone to the coastline.

  6. All the short-range models are in the coating to 1 inch general snowfall tomorrow. A few of them have slightly larger amounts in isolated bullseye styles like we usually see on models. Can that happen? Yes.

    1. Probably not even that much Boston / south Tk do you think more north & west. Lovely day out there not that cold at all .

  8. The CFS locks the entire Northeast into a COLD/DRY pattern by mid January. It’s been doing this for a while now.

    2. Its been a stressful fall and things are seeming to not go the way I hope ever, so I am a bit more grumpy, could really use some snow to lift my spirit and having these consistent rain events are not fun, I rather have snow and cold, this time of year, if not I would like cold and dry so ski areas can maintain the good conditions they been enjoying.

            1. Not really. There will be snow but no month will be a prolific producer in my meteorological opinion. That’s why I forecast snowfall to be lower than average this season. Cold & dry winter overall. The only thing I am in error on so far is forecasting too much snow for December.

  13. Is Brady really hurt or something? I didn’t see the game but the WEEI radio talk hosts are going crazy like Brady may be done for the season and moving on without him, etc.

    2. He’s been playing with an injury and will be fine for the playoffs.

      The radio guys are a name I won’t type here. Use your imagination.

  14. Quiz answer from yesterday:

    Massachusetts’ record maximum annual precipitation is:
    According to the CoCoRaHS website is

    c) 76.49″ set in 1996 in New Salem.

    We are at 69.65″ in Taunton. Blue Hills is 66.46″

  15. Leaning a little closer to the 1 inch than the coating for the region, and a little longer duration. The initial short-wave and associated surface low will do most of its snowing in the morning, but it’s the strong upper level disturbance that comes across the region later in the day and evening that may put down the most snow for northern and eastern MA and adjacent southern NH. I think a general inch on unpaved surfaces is a good bet in these areas, and there is the chance that a 2 or 3 inch amount can occur in a couple narrow bands.

    1. Ah ha… awesome TK. Just enough to give us a white Christmas. Talk about perfect. And To those east of here…I’ll do my best to push it your way

  16. In true Vicki fashion , I will borrow my wife’s hairdryer and give you a hand. I’ll send it east and you can take it from there. . Lets just hope there is something to send your way. Tk seems to be onto something. I hope nature clause delivers.

  18. Being new to the blog I have to let you know that I’m probably one of the biggest snow lovers on here. I live for major winter storms. However whether Christmas Day is white, brown, or plaid, it to me is the most happiest day of the year. It’s a time to reflect on the many blessings I have and to remember past christmases with family who are no longer here, but most importantly, it is a day creating new memories with my wife and kids and sharing in their excitement throughout the day. A currier and Ives scene would be a bonus but either way the day will be a special one none the less.

  19. Assuming TK’s latest thinking verifies, I believe an inch of snow tomorrow would satisfy the technical definition of a white Christmas at Logan. According to Eric, last Christmas didn’t qualify even though we got a good thumping of snow/thunder snow on Christmas morning due to the timing. Iirc Logan received 3+ inches so the total amount on the ground certainly wasn’t an issue.

        1. Wow Vicki I wouldn’t have guessed that definitely feels warmer I just got back from Marshfield hills area .

  21. There seems to be different definitions of a white Christmas. The dictionary says any snow on Christmas Day. But the NWS says 1” on Christmas morning. So in order to say we officially had a white Christmas we need at least an inch? Which one is correct?

    2. It’s 1 inch or more of snowcover at 7AM on Christmas morning. Otherwise, not “officially” a white Christmas, even if it snows like crazy starting at 7:01AM. I know, technicalities. 😉

        1. It doesn’t have to fall at 7, but it has to be on the ground then, when the snow depth measurement is taken.

          It’s a rigid definition and leaves out many possibilities.

  24. So Where’s the beef? Just about where some of us thought it would be.

    We have to wait until that area out by Albany gets here? IF it gets here????

    Sounds just about right.

    1. from NWS

      However, with the second, more acute shortwave approaching later
      this morning, and a gradually moistening column a better chance
      for SN still remains later today into this evening. This
      moisture loading continues, with modest lift in advance of the
      approaching wave traversing the region from W to E especially
      after 15Z. Noting that omega values generally remain at or below
      10 microbars/sec, and peak outside of the DGZ. Therefore, any SN
      should remain light for the most part. Final accums mainly below
      an inch, although upslope enhancement in the Worcester
      Hills/Berkshires may yield some spots above an inch.

      Weak sfc convergence peaks just offshore late today and this
      evening, which could yield a slight enhancement in the NW flow
      along the E coast. This is where Boston and points N and E could
      see the bulk of its SN, but again most places only yield an inch
      or less.

      Noting a slight increase in squall parameter as sfc-H6 layer
      lapse rates steepen with mid/upper cold advection. Not expecting
      true squalls, but SN accompanied by slightly windier conditions
      20-30 mph are possible at times as the band moves through.
      Something to monitor.

    2. The first part was never expected to be much. Sugar coatings south was all it managed. The energy is in part 2.

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