Saturday Forecast

59 Comments

11:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
After a complex day yesterday which featured rain, fog, and some icy spots as cold air was trapped near the ground over parts of southern NH and central MA, we are now drying out behind it all with a moderate westerly breeze today, though it starts mild and then gets colder during today and tonight and remains dry and cold but more tranquil for Sunday as high pressure builds in. But the changes will continue and as we get ready to change the calendar from 2018 to 2019 we’ll be dealing with the passage of another low pressure system, bringing mainly rain for New Year’s Eve, which is a little faster timing than I had been thinking previously. This quicker timing may lead to a much drier result for a good portion of New Year’s Day, which will be mild, before another batch of cold air arrives for the 2nd day of 2019.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun dominates through midday then sun and passing clouds. Temperatures gradually fall, reaching the 30s by late day. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light N.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Risk of mix to rain at night. Highs 37-44. Wind light S.
TUESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Breezy. Temperatures rise to 50s morning, fall to 40s afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)
Watching a storm system for around January 4 that should pass out to the south but it remains to be seen if it gets close enough to spread cloudiness and a snow threat into southern areas. A disturbance may bring snow showers or a period of snow around January 6. Otherwise, a colder/drier pattern evolves.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)
Disturbances may bring snow showers around January 8 and 10 and a larger system may bring precipitation by the end of the period. Low confidence forecast at this time.

59 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK

    Back to 50 here. Dropped briefly to 48 then went back up. I suspect I’m a few degrees high but not many since sun is on sensor

  4. In terms of Logan and rain, it could be due to its locatation. Look at all the buildings to the south and west, even though it’s not a big mtn can still influence the rainfall

    2. Definitely not the buildings. We didn’t see it before and it doesn’t occur in similar cities. It’s an equipment issue or just a coincidence if the information is correct.

        1. He can forget his 55-65” prediction even coming remotely close, that’s for sure. I bet he plays it ultra-conservative next winter! 😉

            1. That is as far as we can see out, reasonably. You can’t make this assumption about the entire winter. Are there signs that point to a low snow season? Sure. But even that is no guarantee.

        2. Couldn’t agree more at this point. It would take a miracle.
          IF I could, I would reduce my low snow figure even more!

          I think I put in something like 28 inches for Logan. Sure!

    1. Nothing like mud season at the barn. Horse rolls in mud. Horse stands in mud and it bakes dry on his heavy winter coat. Horses little girl birches him for an hour or so to get it out. And as silly as it sounds, I miss that. I know my daughter does as well.

    1. I thought this had a good shot at being a colder system but now I’m not sure. I lean more toward the Euro on this. Here’s the reasoning… This is not like we’ll see little subtle model shifts to help guide us one way or another. We tend to see bigger ones in the medium range in a split flow pattern because of differences in model timing regarding phasing (or lack of phasing, depending on the case). The model that has been figuring it out soonest is the ECMWF. I have to lean toward it until it fails as miserably as the others.

  12. I never thought I would ever say this but at this point I’ll take a repeat of 2011-12. At least there was one nice moderate snow event around mid-January. It was the only one that winter but it was better than absolutely nothing at all.

    2011-12 = 9.3”

    1. It’s too early to assess the entire winter. This is only December 29. Winter, technically, is only 8 days old. Granted, the snow pattern is not great (if you want it) for a while, but we still have to go through mid and late January, all of February, and all of March, as well as early April, before we can start to assess the 2018-2019 snow season.

      1. Agreed, but not looking particularly good at the moment. If our anticipated change around 1/15 does not materialize, then all the worse.

  13. Today was beautiful. How often do you get a late December day with well above normal temperatures but also wall to wall sunshine? And we might do it again for the holiday on Tuesday! If it’s not gonna snow, let it do this.

    1. It was truly glorious. We had a spring day for New Years several years ago. I do not recall the year. Perhaps someone will.

        1. No. Would have been before. I think maybe 2009 timeframe. Or 2010. I’ll check with my youngest. She’s good at dates

  20. There was no mention of snow showers in any of the local forecasts here in CT. Surprised to wake up see the radar showing some snow shower activity.
    EURO says rainorama late week CMC GFS gives me a shot at some accumulating snow.

  21. The snow that got into southwestern New England was a combination of mid level disturbance and G.L. moisture. The short range guidance had it, but had it drying up sooner. It was under-forecast by all short-range guidancej.

  25. There were some multiple rounds of heavy radar echoes over me in Sturbridge. Not a flake. The temp is 26 Dew point 20, air seems moist why then all of the virga? Shallow layer of dry air?

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