Wednesday Forecast

69 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)
Low pressure nearly overhead pulls away today turning a damp dawn with fairly light wind into a cloud-dominated but splashes of sun day with increasing wind. It won’t get all that cold, however, as this is an intensifying low pulling away in not-that-cold an airmass. The cold air will arrive in stages, tonight through Thursday night, on a gusty northwesterly wind, and by Friday and the weekend we’ll be in the coldest air mass since late November. During the weekend we’ll be watching 2 things, the possibility of some onshore flow setting up and producing coastal snow showers, especially South Shore and Cape Cod, and a storm passing south of the region on Sunday, which at this time still looks like it will keep its own snow shield to the south of the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of drizzle and fog evolving into lots of clouds with occasional sun. Highs 37-44 morning, lowering through the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 26-31. Wind W to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25, coldest in higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers, favoring Cape Cod. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s except lower 30s Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers, favoring South Shore and South Coast. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s to near 30.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)
We’ll be left between a subtropical jet to the south and polar jet to the north, and perhaps with a very weak disturbance producing some clouds at times January 14-15 with seasonably cold weather. An arctic cold front comes through with colder air arriving January 16-17. A disturbance from the west may bring a snow threat by the end of the period though as best as I can tell this does not look like a major storm threat, however it is still many days away.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)
Current idea continues to be suppression of the subtropical jet and occasional visits from the polar jet stream for an overall colder and drier than average pattern. Will watch for fronts and/or clippers to bring relatively minor snow chances.

69 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  5. Thanks TK. People were trying to will a blizzard into existence last night for sundays forecast on twitter and weather forums. I swear. lol

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Ho-Hum and the beat goes on….

    January 9th and still only 0.2 inch of snow for Boston OR did they pick up
    0.1 inch yesterday????

  10. I actually measured 0.1 inch of snow yesterday in JP (on top of my car to be as accurate as possible)

    JP Season total to date: 4.95 inches
    LOGAN season to date: 0.2 inches

      1. At this point, I don’t give a rat’s ass!
        I don’t care if we have more Winter or we transition right
        into Spring. What the hell difference does it make?????

        1. For someone sho doesn’t give a rats ass – your comments sound like someone who has just gifted a rodents posterior.

          1. Oh, you figured it out, did you.
            I’m just a frustrated old New England Snow
            Lover. When it doesn’t snow, doesn’t want to snow, then it doesn’t sit too well with me.

            Comments or not, I just don’t want to be teased.
            If there is to be NO snow, then so be it.

  12. Thanks TK. Suppressed it is with the weekend system, following the ideas we’ve been emphasizing for several days. Here in the mid-Atlantic we’ve still got a shot at some snow but it doesn’t look like a big event and it could stay mostly south of here. It really looks like the pattern we’ve been expecting for this winter is trying to settle in. Should mean more episodes of colder air and a drier pattern overall. The Pacific isn’t totally done with us yet though. It will still be a battle to keep the cold locked in.

    1. Very depressing outlook to say the least.

      As Matt says, at least with the cold, the ski areas can keep laying down
      machine snow.

      At this point, IF there is to be no snow, then let’s keep it warm.
      Bring on the Pacific flow!
      I don’t mind saving money on fuel bills.

  13. Thanks TK
    Fantasy storm on 6z GFS for 1/20. Would be make quite a football game if the Pats have the home field for the AFC Championship hosting the Colts.

    1. I would bet anything we have a decent watcher next weekend for MLK weekend I’ll bet anything for a storm or watcher . I swear something about this weekend every year

      1. Take any 3 day period from January to March and that will be the case most of the time. It’s not just that weekend, which can vary by date up to just over over week. 🙂

  16. the model ensembles are still not in agreement but are getting in better agreement of not allowing the precip field moving into our area on sunday/monday. If TK could tell me why it seems like this year even when the high pressures are in good locations we can not get the storms to come up the coast. I still wouldn’t call if off, especially since I feel like the storms we do get this winter will be storms that we feel like is going to miss us but become an unexpected surprise. It won’t be a storm we see 7 to 10 days out. It will be a storm we find within 3 days.

    1. Because surface high pressure to the north of only one aspect. Pay close attention to the mid and upper atmosphere, and when using models, keep in mind their weaknesses, which are even more amplified in a split flow pattern like this one. This was nicely explained by JMA the other day.

  17. We may see our 2nd general snowfall of the season around January 18th. But we’ll need help.

  18. I don’t know about the next snow threat ……

    I would throw out there New England may be susceptible to brief (24 to 36 hr) swipes of extremely cold air.

    There’s a 72 to 96 hr cold airmass, comparable to Thanksgiving Day arriving for Friday through Sunday.

    I’m postulating airmasses where day time temps will be 8-12F and night-time lows near 0F in Boston and below in the suburbs.

    They will be brief shots because the NAO shows no signs of going negative and thus the airmass will push through New England and then move out quickly.

    It also would be a case where New England is coldest. A place like Detroit is likely to get grazed and Chicago and Minneapolis would be largely missed by the brief arctic intrusion.

  23. I am not sure if the euro actually really moved north what happened i believe it showing and expanded precip-field due to the 500 vort.

  24. I look at the EURO’s 500mb flow at hr 96 and hr 120.

    All I see is NW or WNW flow at 500mb

    Today’s 12z run doesn’t change my mind one bit. I don’t give the surface printouts much credence with that 500 mb flow. Maybe the northern 200 miles of the precip shield is virga ??????

    1. the 850 mb flow at hr 96 is NW and at hr 120 is NNW, so there’s no moisture influx in either time period.

  25. Looking at post on twitter with regards to 12z EURO only looking at 2-3 inches my area so a minor snowfall.

  26. Great tweet here from AllanWeather
    Some observations with the latest #ECMWF run
    •Confluence is a tad further N—accumulating snow with overrunning, from I-84 on S
    •The S. Stream Energy is still way-too strung out. If we could consolidate it further W, then a stronger low can form and move up-the-coast on Mon

      1. Based on all the meteorologists and amateurs I follow on twitter – they all need to take into account the hot air they put out with their tweets too. lmao. Maybe that’s why we haven’t had significant snow yet!

  27. I wrote a comment that was a little too opinionated about model watching I have been observing around the net today, but then decided not to post it, so instead I’ll just say HI to WHW folks instead!

    No changes to the thinking above. 🙂 I don’t adjust my forecast with every run of every model, thank goodness. 😉 That would be way too much work. 😛

    1. I’m going to imagine it had a ton of expletives, a few choice words about the patch as is tradition, a long side tangent about a minor battle in the civil war and then concluding with a poem from a famous author.

  28. I could see a situation in which this low pressure goes around the bench mark but because of the high pressure to the north all the precip is pushed out to sea

  29. @edvalleewx

    The European EPS delivers a moderate snow event to the Mid-Atlantic and is precariously close to southern New England – certainly worth monitoring to end the week…

      1. You’ll be more likely to get that from the polar jet stream in the next few weeks… 😉

        1. I was actually thinking if we could get the Polar jet stream to dig deep enough maybe we could get a decent event with no real need for the lower jet.

  31. The trend is your friend. I mentioned in a previous comment that I work in the funeral home business,this winter has been great for our guests and staff no slips and falls or broken bones. Eventually we will get some snow,unless there is a drastic change,this weekend should be dry. I’m down here in Warwick near TF Greene.

    1. The nature of weather, always going to be a plus for some and not for others. Definitely a low ice winter so far.

  32. Thank you, TK.

    Our Irish winter continues. Today really felt like a January day in Belfast. Problem is so many days this winter have felt that way. I long for a long, sunny stretch. A deep yearning.

    Mysterious radio signals are coming from outer space. Very, very far away. The article below mentions several theories about what could be causing them: 1. A neutron star with a very strong magnetic field that is spinning very rapidly; 2. Two neutron stars merging together; 3. Some form of alien spaceship. I’ll go with 3 just to be provocative.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46811618

    And any time I think of aliens and spaceships, my mind goes to Planet Claire:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47YAcpCa5dM

    To know that this track was released over 40 years ago. Astounding how modern the B-52s sound. Timeless.

    3. The weather may begin to please your liking a little bit more starting tomorrow.

      Fascinating space stuff. Always loved that. Something we know about coming from somewhere unknown.

      I believe that is the opening track on the B-52’s first album. Always loved them. 🙂 My favorite two albums are “Bouncing Off The Satellites” and “Cosmic Thing”, but you’ll get 2 thumbs up from from me for anything they have done!

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