Thursday Forecast

101 Comments

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)
A disturbance passing through the region this morning will produce some snow showers and clouds may hang around much of the day as the next round of cold air arrives from Canada. We will feel this in full force by tonight and then continuing through the coming weekend as high pressure moves in and keeps a storm system south of the region. Backing off the idea of ocean-effect snow showers for Saturday but keeping them in along the South Shore and Cape Cod for Sunday. Other than these minor instances of snow showers the theme is dry and cold.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers pushing northwest to southeast across the region early to mid morning will dust the ground in places. Highs 32-39. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25, coldest in higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-15, least-cold urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers South Shore and Cape Cod. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)
For mid winter the weather pattern will be fairly benign overall, on the cold/dry side but we will have to watch for a possible system bringing a snow threat around January 18. Not a high confidence forecast but something to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)
Similar pattern continues, one or two possible systems to watch at some point during this period but no early signals of any major storms.

101 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Our good old friend the CFS (which can suck or not suck depending on which run you’re looking at) has a 6 week forecast of persistent below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation beginning…. NOW!

  5. Thanks TK. It’s a good morning for ski country. Lots of snow up there the past couple days. They’ll be just fine this year. It’s tough to keep it from snowing up there, or at least to keep them from making snow. You need a 2015-2016 style winter for that, and that year was basically one of a kind.

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yes, it flaked a little bit this morning. Wow! that’s something.

    BORING…………………………..

    TK, you mentioned “possible” Snow Showers South Shore and Cap for Sunday.
    Any chance a few drift over Foxborough? Curious and thanks.

  10. JPD – how are you and Mrs. OS feeling?

    JPD and Matt – has your storm glass changed with the weather?

    1. Thank you Vicki….
      I am fine.
      Mrs. OS has taken much longer to recover as she is not nearly as health
      and strong as I am. She was getting better, but it came back with a vengence
      yesterday.

      re: Storm glass
      Frankly, it looks the same whether it is clear, cloudy, raining or snowing.
      Just looks like a container of water to me. 😀 😀 😀
      Perhaps there a subtle changes I don’t even notice.

      1. Oh no, JPD. I am sorry to hear Mrs. OS relapsed. Please tell her she is in my thoughts. Happy to hear you are better.

        Mine doesn’t change unless I shake it. And I am sure you are not supposed to do that but someone has to wake it up 😉

    1. LOL, JJ. I was driving to the supermarket in the middle of the showers and had the exact same thought. Typically, I get that excited about snow showers when they arrive in october or early november.

  12. There is consistency on the models with regards to a lobe of super frigid air and where it may be in 8 to 10 days.

    Not too far, relatively speaking, north of New England.

    850 mb temps of -30 and colder.

    I think that is a watcher ! Will the jet stream orient to dip that airmass further south into New England?

    1. IF it does, I want the Sub Tropical Jet to send a big blob of moisture
      to run right up against it over New England.

      1. I’m game. Can we pencil it in during February school vacation?

        Do you remember that storm within the last 3 to 4 years where it was snowing quite a bit, inland locations were below 0 and Logan was 2F?

        2. My youngest would LOVE a late week Feb vacation storm. Sutton only has Monday and Tuesday off for Feb vacation.

    1. Yes, and we have seen that before. By the time 1/20 rolls around it will
      be SUPPRESSED. It’s the name of the game this Winter.
      Let us hope that one of these days the polar jet retreats just enough OR
      the 2 jets actually phase. At this point I’d take a system from either jet.
      A nice clipper in the N stream exploding just South of LI would be just fine.

  15. what I like to call spit and float snow is falling here in billerica
    In terms of the storm for or well, the disturbance, will be weak and way to spread out and will be suppressed to the south. I am not trusting anything the models show, we saw what happened with this system, That storm people are talking about is a northern stream system which I bet is even harder than forecasting a southern stream.

    1. I should have read this before heading out with two year old grand to take decorations down. I kept telling her it was snowing but flakes were few and far between and she thought I was nuts. There is more now of course that we are back inside.

  17. Cold, breezy, and a nice little snow shower activity for the last 30-45 minutes here…feels like winter at least!

  20. Thank you, TK.

    Well, that was it. Hope you all took pictures of the snow flakes flying around. One flake smacked me in the eye. And that’s hard to do given that I wear glasses. But, that was our winter snow event.

    Let’s hope that my words above don’t come to fruition.

    JP Dave, I hope that your wife recuperates soon from the nasty bug. It’s a persistent virus that lingers long after the first signs and symptoms of illness.

  24. MWObservatory tweet from yesterday:
    ‏
    After seeing light winds and snow this morning (a rarity!) Blizzard conditions have returned to Mount Washington this afternoon, with a peak gust of 115 mph as of 5 PM. #nhwx #NH #mountain #snow #winter #Blizzard #whiteout

    Cool video of the blizzard conditions on the summit yesterday. The peak wind gust actually recorded was 122 mph…

    https://twitter.com/MWObs/status/1083121887297839104

  26. Thanks mark, great video. Can’t even imagine how intense that is, true whiteout conditions. Would be super easy to loose your sense of direction.

    1. True, sort of. There was some suppression, however, as the Mid-Atlantic got even more rain than we did. This happened with almost every storm this past summer and fall. The systems still made it to SNE, but believe it or not with less rain than states such as NJ and Maryland.

  31. 18z GFS is on board for a major nor’easter on 1/20:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011018&fh=240

    And a clipper passing to our south bringing more (lighter) snow on 1/22:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011018&fh=288

    Finally seeing some more definitive signs of a pattern change. Colder and drier overall, but it will at least offer some more legitimate snow chances.

    Hey, our luck has got to change eventually right?

        1. Mark I swear there is always something brewing around or on this weekend whenever it may fall . Harvey said possible changes maybe after the seven day he posted .

  34. A breakdown of EURO weeklies from Meteorologoist John Homenuk
    Week 1 : Transitional pattern, -AO Builds
    Week 2: Trough east, -EPO
    Week 3: Major trough & cold east, -NAO
    Week 4: Trough & cold east, continued high latitude blocking

  35. RE: Euro Weeklies.

    When a model that has a reputation of being very reliable struggles, as even the ECMWF does in a pattern of split flow with these indices, it is advisable to take its “weeklies” version with a grain of salt as well. The CFS has actually done a better job with precipitation out 2 to 6 weeks of late, and it’s DRY. Not that I place great faith in that model in either case, but I’d give it the edge.

      1. The CFS initially forecast a colder December then corrected to the milder scenario, and also got this first 10 days of January generally correct as well.

  36. Trying to temper my optimism but it is safe to say at a minimum that this upcoming pattern should be more winter like and offer the best snow chances we have seen this winter. We will have to be extremely unlucky not to snow a few times in this pattern, even if it is not a snow blitz.

  37. Thoughts – I am growing to despise meteorologists with private consulting firms (themselves in their basement and a twitter account.) Maybe it is the pervasiveness of social media but this winter’s dearth of snow has brought out so many hanging on every model run espousing the big storm in 10 days or the pattern change in 2 weeks. Instead of posting ensemble mean, the posting of an ensemble member that show the outcome wanted instead of the ensemble mean, has become a standard go to move.

    We have lost our collective minds! Not every winter is a big one, and I think we have had some pretty good ones for snowfall the last 5 years. There is going to be seasonal re-balancing when that happens. Wait to you all see the winter 2020-2021! Kidding, I have no idea what that one will bring.

    This winter has played out to date just as many meteorologists who are more than winter weather enthusiasts and model huggers have prognosticated.

    The EPS weeklies have been lousy and still are. The FV3 should never be looked at. The CFS has fluctuations, but has been most consistent with the signal for the prevailing pattern since September. ECMWF has problems with southern stream energy in the split flow. GFS has no idea at times how to translate its mid and upper level features in the northern stream to sensible surface outcomes. All things noted and known by many who care to be curious about more than the next winter snow storm.

    As noted, pattern change to colder drier would come around January 15th, maybe it is happening a few days earlier. This pattern is now being advertised as the dawn of winter. No we are in winter and have been for a while. This new dawn of winter is just more than likely colder and drier. This new pattern is not going to bring much snow. It will actually be drier than the one we are transitioning from. It will bring some more potential for progressive clippers. Maybe even a few in quick succession, but for the next 10-15 days I see colder, not stormier. Those advertising something else are cheerleading, not forecasting.

    Sorry to rant, but I finally lost my patience with all these twitterologists.

    1. Well thank you for putting all the thoughts in my head into a very well-constructed rant. I’m having too busy a day to do that with any clarity. 😉

      As always, I am greatly pleased by your participation here!

      1. I read most every day and if not everyday, at least several days a week, but the business of the days and weeks keeps me from
        being much of an active participant.

        Anyway probably too much emotion in that post and maybe too much definitiveness, but on the other hand I feel pretty locked in on this winter and it evolutions Been plenty I couldn’t get a grasp on. 2013 comes to mind.

        Cold and dry. Enjoy!

    2. Anything next weekend JMA. My 14 yr old is traveling to Washington next Thursday through Saturday. Appreciate your posts

    3. JMA…TK…SAK and all of the amazing and conscientious meteorologists

      If I may. And If mayn’t, please skip reading

      From someone who doesn’t have an ounce of meterology knowledge but who has a good amount of world experience and knowledge….

      I’m good at my job. My business associate is exceptional. Together we make an awesome team. We are consultants. And on the whole the word consultant can have a very negative connotation because too many are really bad at what they do.

      We are not the best but I’d bet we are close to that level…along of course with others. We don’t dictate to our clients what to do. We work with our clients so that they develop and then own the process. If you think about it, you do the same. When you impart knowledge, you do it in a way that educates.

      What we don’t do is worry about what others do. Instead, we keep doing what is the best for our clients to the very best of our ability.

      Every profession has Twitterologists (awesome description BTW). But wise folks know that and will look for the ones that shine…..and again, that is you, JMA, TK, SAK.

      Now on to our regularly scheduled program.

        1. Don’t worry. It’s your thoughts on the subject. I think I can speak at least somewhat accurately for my colleagues when I say it just can be very frustrating when it feels like those types of info sources are in the way of information from more experienced sources.

          It can be frustrating when it feels like the hard work you put into what you say is overshadowed by somebody who’s copying and pasting model links. That’s basically all I was getting at. 🙂

          1. That I understand completely. It was my point. Sadly, every profession has this. And it sucks. But it will not go away.

            Smart people also know it exists. Not so smart are the ones looking for negatives around every corner and that will never change. There are times I think those folks look for ways to complain. Social media makes them look like the majority when they really are a very small minority

            1. And of course it bothers you. You would not be human if it didn’t. It bothers you because your profession means the world to you

              1. Exactly. And believe me there are many days I try very hard to just ignore all the extraneous stuff I don’t find in good practice, but it’s hard to do that when it’s everywhere you look. 😉 Ah well! All I can do is do what I do the best I can do it. 🙂

  39. MLK weekend has had its fair share of snowstorms. So, maybe we’ll get a storm then. Heck, even in 2012 we got a couple of inches MLK weekend, and it was the coldest weekend of that very mild and mostly snowless winter. I remember the MLK weekend snow in 2012 well, as I sledded with my nephew on the Larz Andersen hill.

    I am very happy to see lots of sun in the forecast. Really glad. It’s been a very lengthy, gloomy period. Goes back many months in which gray sky days outnumbered blue. Looks like that at least will change.

  41. One can only hope that MLK period we get our annual event lol.
    Anyways, not trusting any of the models.
    In terms of this winter, my winter thoughts other than Febuary being the most wintery of them throw it out lol.
    These past 10 years have been one of the snowiest periods here in the Boston area. This is a mix of factors. Long term trends in weather teloconnections some of which look to be changing. Another thing is anthropological climate change. I won’t get into the details of why anthropological climate change is part of the reason because I wrote and noticed it was half the length of TK’s blog post. This is a very simplifed version of my original post 😛

  42. I just wish persistence and a season’s outlook, if agreed upon by many, weighed more into people’s thinking.

    For example, now that the 13th and 14th are off the table, the weather world is onto the 19th and 20th and beyond. ……. the pattern looks to be better for some snow ……

    Well, of course it does. It’s 10 or more days out.

    Based on persistence and the seasonal outlook, I believe it would be wiser to assume continued misses to the south and an overall dry pattern. ….. sure, a pattern can change, but I think there’s a greater chance at systems continuing to behave as they have, for a while going forward.

    1. Once upon a time these very same computer models had us in a stormy pattern now including having us in unsettled weather on Dec 12-13. They are not performing any better now than they were then.

      1. This pretty measured guy has gone a bit off the deep end. He has been hyping a pattern change in 1-2 weeks for 6 weeks. I think he has built a large twitter following, I am sure made up of many winter weather enthusiasts and this is a way of playing to masses and keeping them engaged, which is very much part of the job description for a TV weather anchor now.

  44. Meterologists, Climatologists, Ecologists, biologists, Environmental scientists any natural science based on the earth seems to have people that think they know better. Its frustrating as all heck.

  45. TK – Will Richmond (VA) get another round of a foot of snow? When I spoke to my cousin last month, she had hoped THAT was the last snow. More of the same to come?

    Snowfall to date: Logan = 0.2” 🙁

    NYC = 6.4”
    Richmond VA = 11.5”
    El Paso TX = 0.4”

      1. Thanks TK! Hope that verifies. Richmond schools were closed for an entire week the last time.

        I just hope we don’t have to wait until NEXT winter to see a 3-6” snow event up here.

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