Tuesday Forecast

273 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)
Since the media has made most people forget that there is actually a low pressure area to contend with before the end-of-the-world comes on Sunday, we’ll focus on that one here since it actually falls within the 5-day forecast period in this section of the blog. But first, a seasonably chilly day today with fair weather as high pressure shifts southwest of the region. This will be followed by slightly milder air counteracted by a stronger breeze on Wednesday, but still a nice January day overall, holding a few more clouds, however, than today will. A cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night, perhaps bringing a snow shower, but certainly bringing colder air back for Thursday. This cold air mass will be fleeting, though, and the first of a series of Pacific low pressure systems will arrive from the west on Friday, bringing a combination of snow and rain to the region. This will not be a major system, but its timing may have some impact on the Friday morning commute. By Saturday, more cold air will settle in behind that system and the second low will be heading through the Ohio Valley, bringing clouds back to the region, and depending on its timing, possibly some snow by Saturday night.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind light NW to W.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 15-22. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing during the day.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix north, mix/rain south. Temperatures rise into the 30s.
SATURDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Chance of snow at night. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)
Storm threat for January 20 with uncertainty on exact low pressure configuration, strength, timing, and track. The storm has the potential to produce significant precipitation. Dry, windy, much colder January 21. Dry and cold mid period, then milder with next unsettled weather threat possible by late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)
Potential low pressure systems around January 26 and 28 but not high confidence forecast. Temperatures near to below normal. Will be tracking a lobe of the polar vortex but unsure if it makes it fully into the area at this time.

273 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Thanks Tk . Yes indeed the potential is definitely there for a significant plowable event Saturday night / throughout most of Sunday

  6. Good morning again and thank you TK. Anxiously awaiting ALL of the 12Z runs to see what shenanigans is up.

    How many cutters and/or inside runners will show up?
    Will it suddenly be suppressed. Rainorama? Snowblitz? Sleetorama?
    Combo plate?

    1. Thoughts . Snow dump beginning changing to mix / rain & back to snow Sunday night than icing concerns ???????

      2. John,

        Could very well be the scenario. Could be a total mess.
        BUT, there could be many different scenarios.

        Frankly, it would not surprise me if this becomes an all
        out snow bomb!
        Wouldn’t surprise me if it were a cutter with a bit of snow/ice up front to rain with a touch of snow at the end.
        At this point, I think it would surprise me if it went out
        South of us and we stayed dry, but I suppose that is still on the table.

        1. Agree I also would be surprised with the staying dry part . Without a doubt though whatever happens if it hits us it might be here maybe 24 hrs at least

  7. Thanks TK !

    Great opening sentence to your discussion, lol !!

    Wouldn’t it be something if Logan received more snow from Fri system compared to weekend system …….

      1. I called in today as well. The overall congestion is still there, but a bit improved.

        Gotten grading done, which is helpful and was able to visit the school from 5 to 5:30pm yesterday to leave today’s lesson.

        We’ll see how today goes …… I really want to return tomorrow.

        2. My Daughter, who is also a teacher, has this as well.
          She has called in one day, but otherwise has been
          toughing it out.

          It has really affected Mrs. OS. We may be taking a trip to the DR and/or Hospital. Her fever was down a touch late last night, so we are hopeful. The concern is pneumonia as she is very susceptible to that. The problem is, she is allergic to ALL of the antibiotic medications. She is literally between a rock and a hard place. She had to rely on her own body to rid the pneumonia for past occurrences, but she isn’t getting any younger making each occurrence all the more
          dangerous.

          It is day 17 for me and although I feel fine, I am still a bit congested and have to relieve my nose several times a day.

          1. Thanks for the update JpDave. All my best to your wife and that’s hard to fight this off without much help from medications.

          2. Old salty don’t mess with it . If you can’t get her in to primary today ASAP I’d strongly advise bringing her too the ER. With her history as you have described she needs to be watched closely . I sincerely hope her health improves. I’ve been home & out of work tending to my wife’s chronic illness .

  8. Deep thunder shifted south and similar to Ukie. Drops the hammer. Way too much bouncing around to have any idea at this point. Let’s get the system close to the lower 48.

    1. Thanks HADI. Any links? Bouncing around or no, we like to look at them (or I do anyway).

      Is that the Weather Channel proprietary model?

      thanks

        2. Btw, This model, although it shows snow and a shift South, does NOT go overboard with the qpf.
          I wonder if this is the most realistic solution to date?????
          Just a thought anyway.

          Should you see an update of this, could you please post?

          Thanks

  9. All options on the table, though a miss is less likely at this point. Can’t understand how anyone on TV give a rain snow scenario at this point. Way too much unknown in this pattern. What I do k or is cold is sticking around for a while. This will be one of many chances to track systems the next 6 weeks.

  10. We have a ton of cold air so watching how that interacts with the storm. All I know with that much cold getting a lot of rain is not easy. My concern is ice and freezing rain with such intense cold funneling in.

  12. So, I think the weekend “system” has one feature that has a high degree of certainty and a second feature that has a high degree of uncertainty.

    Certainty : the southern stream system and its associated moisture. I feel pretty confident in this part. In this cold season, there’s been one after the other and that gives me the high degree of confidence that this is the reliable piece.

    Uncertainty : the whole northern stream. Up to now, this piece has been so reliable and consistent this cold season. Its NW flow has blocked everything.

    With some changes to the teleconnections, there’s a reasonable assumption that the orientation of the northern jet will be different this time.

    It’s just trying to figure out how different.

    I was peaking at the 500 mb projected flow across Canada around 144 hrs on the GFS and EURO and as one might expect, there are differences in the location and amplitude of the northern jet stream.

  14. Ch. 7 this morning has the most likely track inland with a quick burst of snow then mostly rain for much of the area. The offshore track with mostly snow is the least likely.

    The Mid-Atlantic can get all snow but SNE can’t?? 🙁

    1. Do you trust mets on channel 7????
      Who says that is the likely track? And how the hell can they know with
      the energy sill over the Pacific.

      At least Eric is smart enough to WAIT.

  15. Thank you, TK.

    JP Dave, hoping your wife recovers soon. If she’s well enough for a trip south the warm sun would be good for her. Next week’s Arctic blast will not be good for her.

    My mother’s allergic to all penicillin-based products. I can’t remember what she took when she had pneumonia. It began with “sulpha …”

  16. 12Z NAM for Friday wants to take bulk of the system out South of us.
    Interesting, since most model took it right over us with snow to rain.
    Wondering what this “may” mean for the weekend?? Is a more suppressed
    system still in the cards????

    1. very much so, Friday system will help determine what happens with the weekend systems track in some ways

      1. What exactly does the Friday system have to do so we can get all snow for Sunday? I hate the thought of an inland track.

        1. Well, it may be doing it already if one looks at the NAM?
          BUT, is it doing it too much to the point that the weekend
          system goes too far South. Ahh, that is the million dollar
          question.

          To bad we didn’t have ships all over the pacific
          launching balloons to sample the upper air.
          There’s a novel idea.

  18. Thanks TK
    Looking at the deep thunder model the snowfall deficit should be close to if not completely wiped away.

  19. I did say in my winter forecast that there will be not many storms but the storms that do happen to give snow will give alot, Lets see what happens lol.

    1. MJVentrice on twitter: “I suspect we’ll see the model bounce around alittle bit here as it starts to resolve the correct outcome. FYI – “Deep Thunder” is going away and being replaced by “GRAF””

  21. This is TV met forecaster, Longshot. The long awaited blockbuster snow storm due to clobber our area Sunday looks like it will come up the coast; pick up tropical moisture from a Bermuda high; bump into cold Canadian air; cross over The Benchmark and bomb out in what will be a 36 hour all snow event.

    I wonder what would happen if I posted this on a social media site!

  24. So far, I don’t like the look of the GFS regarding 500MB flow and surface alignment.
    Looks to go over us or just to the N & W. We shall see. Still running.

  27. Okay I see what the medium-range guidance is trying to do. Couple days ago this was the scenario I was leaning toward very slightly. then I started the battle with myself between that scenario and a scenario of suppression. However the setup of the 500 millibar pattern is not quite enough to push the suppression. We need more of a disconnect. instead it wants to do a bit of an old habit albeit a bit further east and phase things sooner and put the main low further north instead of further south.

    Let me emphasize that this is not necessarily going to be the correct outcome but I can see it becoming a more reasonable one assuming that the forecast up to that point is at least close.

    And I’ll conclude with saying I’m really not much more certain now than I was when I woke up this morning how about the outcome. We still have a way to go.

    1. Many thanks for your thoughts TK and sorry if I went a little overboard
      with Maps. It kind of lays it out there, though. No?

      Cheers

  29. It will be interesting to see what the other 12z guidance shows, although we all know there will be many more changes ahead. I find it hard to believe the GFS doesn’t trend south on both systems as we approach, but it’s hard given the short range guidance is just coming into range and isn’t all that reliable this far out. So does GFS correct south or short range come north for Friday, that will be our first clue for the weekend.

  32. Meant to say where the Friday system is being placed by the CMC is where you want the weekend storm system to be.

  35. I find the evolution of the Sunday event somewhat anamolous to the synoptic conditions the models are depicting. I did think the 500mb flow would
    be a bit different than now showing and I am waiting to see the impact for Friday and the frontal passage on sensible weather outcomes. However, as I noted many times storms do occur anamolous to the pattern or prevailing set up. I am open to all solutions but I am still struggling to see a warm one. I probably need to start to open my heart to it.

    Did see a local tv met give an exact start and end time for the Sunday event today….

      1. It is the flow of air at 500 MB, which is “approximately” 18,000 feet up. Surface systems are tied to the atmospheric flow
        at that level.

        1. You will often hear Mets use the “Steering Current”.
          When they say this, they are typically referring to
          the flow at that level.

      1. I don’t know who the met was, but I’m surprised that he/she didn’t at least use the word “preliminary” start/end time this many days out. I guess there are many mets out there that already have the storm “figured out”.

  37. the ensemble means of these models have generally stated east of Boston for the past few days even when the operational has moved west.

  38. Based on what i have been seeing for a while now I would take a UKIE run over any GFS at this point. Not sure what to think yet. Again just too soon. I think the lack of snow has made a lot of folks antsy thus the need for TV Mets to come out early with major ideas.

  40. Dave, I don’t have a map for the UKMET but am reading on American Weather it dumps a foot plus for most of SNE.

    Also – the 12z GEFS mean is SE of the operational but still hugs the coast. All but one or two members flip us to rain at some point. Nonetheless, a better looks than the operational for more prolonged frozen precip.

  41. FWIW I still like colder and more suppressed for the weekend. Could certainly be wrong but my overall reasoning hasn’t changed. If we see more consensus on the cutter solution by tomorrow I’ll probably have to cave, but for now I think a lot of guidance is too far west and too warm. Much too early to talk about amounts even in a colder scenario though.

          1. I’ve been reading snow obsessed tweets from the weather world and if the big cities of the northeast don’t get a big snow soon, I think a few folks are going to lose their minds 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Slight improvement there but still a changeover with a prolonged period of liquid (or frozen liquid) for most of us. Nonetheless, a few more of those subtle shifts south and we are in the game. And still plenty of time for that to happen at 5 days out.

  46. 12z Euro doesn’t look too dissimilar from 0z so far. Going to be another crush job for NYS, VT, NH, and Maine, and kitchen sink storm in SNE.

  47. Good explanation from Doug Simonian on the 12z UKMET on why it is southeast
    The reason why the UKMET is so much colder and snowier for coastal areas is because it misses the “phase” with the Western TPV lobe. The UKMET is much more progressive with it. It’s a subtle difference but it has a huge impact.

    Tweet from John Homenuk
    A great example here from Doug of the very slight changes to the overall evolution that could change the entire outcome this weekend. My point: While interior areas strongly favored for snow, unwise to discount possibility of adjustments at this range.

  48. Before the weekend could be a slippery commute for some on Fri am with a minor accumulation of snowfall.

  49. I think if you look at 0z euro vs. 12z euro you will see a decent difference in temps(colder on 12Z) a shift is occurring imo , way too early for anyone to pronounce what they and what they don’t know.

  50. Interesting that at 120 hours, the 12z Euro actually has the low a bit farther NW than 0z at 120 hours in VA but the 850 line is draped further south across SNE. Some stronger cold air damming being modeled in this run.

      1. A well timed request my good friend. See below. You”ll need to get Cohen out of bed at midnight Saturday if he wants some time to play in the snow before the changeover….if the Euro is correct!

      1. I am cautiously optimistic. Should have a better idea tomorrow. Energy will be closer and we will be 3 days out from the storm’s onset.

  53. Northwest Hills of CT special with that 12z EURO run with the snowfall.
    Just need a little more of a southeast shift to get the bigger totals that are in Northwest Hills down to my area.

  54. Its rediculous to think that this strom can’t shift south we are still 4+ days out. How many times has a storm shifted significantly just before it was ready to hit.

  55. Will be very interested to see the EPS and if there is any more clustering of ensembles further southeast.

  57. FWIW, the 12z Euro is depicting the next system on Thursday 1/24 as a cutter with the low track over Michigan. Would yield rain and a high of 55 in Boston next Thursday. Thankfully plenty of time for that to shift.

  61. This is how our NWS office sees things shaking out…

    The potentially bigger system now appears to arrive Saturday
    night into Sunday. Have higher confidence it will precipitate,
    but very little confidence in the specific precipitation types.
    Have mentioned a wintry mix to convey the idea transitions. The
    timing and duration of each are very much subject to change over
    the next few days. In general, thinking some snow to start
    transitioning to a wintry mix, then possibly ending as snow
    Sunday night. This will all be dependent upon the storm track,
    which is not yet known with enough confidence.

  64. So are we still thinking it’s just gunna be a lil rain snow mix in the morning commute on Friday or do we think nothing will happen? Place your bets here!

  65. light snow event along and west and north of I95. if I was going to bet on anything for Thursday night/ Friday. Still questions on the Friday system which is why I am so hesitant to lean in any direction for the weekend system, we are seeing some of the models now sending the storm for the weekend south now which I have thought could happen but I also know others been thinking this as well. We will get a better handle of this Thursday/Friday its only Tuesday. 😀 Anyway its fun to watch.
    EURO ensemble mean a bit further east than the euro operational
    GFS ensemble mean further east than the operational but is in line with euro ensemble mean as well. these going over cape cod. While euro operational goes over SE Mass

  68. Being Tuesday there is plenty of time for this to shift south and east and give us more in the way of wintry weather. This is not the final outcome.

        1. Will depend on your location and what you define as “big”. The storm will be stronger than the one that precedes it, for sure.

  72. Why does it feel like when the track is not in our favor( meaning less snow) the track stays the same but when it’s vice versa it’s a guaranteed change lol.

    Even if we get a southern solution wouldn’t that mean no phasing thus colder but weaker solution?

    1. It may feel that way, but I don’t think it’s that way necessarily.

      The obvious example in feb 2015, during which everything improved up to hr 0 of the event and then somehow within the event itself, still overachieved the final model run.

      Conversely, there are a few seasons it struggles to snow and this feels like one of them and thus, long term projections of snow tend to go awry as the long range becomes the medium and then short range:

  73. I don’t often “root” for any particular scenario, but I’m hoping for a more inland track, faster, and a warm front / cold front combo here in southeastern New England. That may actually get us into dry air on the back side enough for at least partial clearing in time for Sunday night’s total lunar eclipse.

    2. Ha! I was just thinking about the eclipse and wanting it to clear and simultaneously realizing I am probably on an island. Glad to know you are a weirdo too!

      One other note – I have been reading a bit about UKMET and it relatability. Yes based on certain scoring criteria it has been a better model than the GFS, particularly in Europe and Asia. Frankly, it has been awful in North America for an extended period back to 2017.

      1. Thanks for that. For some reason I see a lot of people(professionals) post the scores and clearly make it appear that Ukie is very good even here in the US.

        Curious what’s different about Europe vs. US when it comes to a specific model?

      3. The UKMET had a nice run here in 2016 and right after I started to look at it a bit more it went to crap so I gave up on it.

        And yes I enjoy being weird!

      1. same 😀 but no matter what the patriots do, I will be happy with this team. For a while I was not expecting them to make it this far. I also feel like some familiar faces will be gone next year. This is going to be kind of like the last time there will be many that were in the last superbowl thats let go this year.

    1. I love Bernie but calling it “a major snowstorm” leaves a lot of people out. 😉 “A significant winter storm” is a better term unless he’s speaking to those directly in the combination all snow / heavier QPF path.

    1. the icon wasn’t that bad for some of the previous systems. We shall see how it performs for this one. Its not been sucking as bad as the gfs for the most part lol.

    2. The ICON was first to pick out a couple of suppression scenarios, but it’s not consistent. Then again what model is? HAHAHA

  77. Tk I know what I said above is not true lol. It just feels that way because who tracks whether we get 0.3 inches of rain or 0.9 inches of rain. It probably happens all the time.
    I hope a further SE track!

    1. Absolutely. We tend to notice “things that happen all the time” when we pay attention to a particular time period or event. Rain events miss, percentage wise, just as much as snow events. The atmosphere doesn’t care where you are and whether you want snow or rain. 🙂

      Just like the “storm every MLK Weekend” theory. If you take ANY THREE DAY PERIOD from January through March, you’ll pretty much find (with very subtle differences) that a low pressure system will impact at least one of those 3 days. It’s NO DIFFERENT than saying “it seems like we have a storm threat on January 29-31 every year”.

      1. Lol . Guess we can call this year a win as I stated seems like we always have a watcher or a storm every year .Jackpot this year getting both

        1. One of these days I’m going to go back into the climate record and pick several 3-day periods and test the theory. The problem with picking out JUST MLK weekend is it can encompass the dates from January 13 to January 21, so it’s not a FIXED set of dates. In order to test a theory like that you need a large sampling of dates to compare it to.

  78. Cutter trend is your friend. I hope the folks that like the snow get their wish. Frozen car doors Monday morning????

  79. Can’t complain about the weather in recent days as we’ve had plenty of sun and it’s looked like winter with the Charles freezing over, the ground as hard as rock, etc … However, the growing probability of a kitchen sink storm this weekend, at least for SNE, is not a snow lover’s dream. And, given the trend we’ve witnessed this winter, the serious cold that follows the storm will be relatively short-lived and may be followed by a lakes cutter and temps in SNE rising into the 50s. To put it in Trumpian terms, that is SAD. I realize we’re still more than a week away from that event, but as the French say plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. Just not feeling that snow is in the cards much at all this winter in SNE.

    1. I’m glad not every winter is snowy from start to finish. It’s not the climate of this part of the country. We have some, and sometimes we do not. This is PERFECTLY OK. I like it when it is. I like it when it isn’t. If you depend on snow for business or if snow hurts your business, there are always going to be up years and down years on both ends. That is something well known before you go into that kind of business, or you didn’t do your homework. 😉

      1. I hear you, TK. You’re right. Our climate is fickle and not constant. Nor, do we live in Quebec City where even the mildest winters aren’t really mild and have plenty of snow. 2006-2007 comes to mind. We didn’t have much here in Boston. But, boy did they have massive amounts up there. I drove there in late March 2007, and from around Jackman, Maine to Quebec City it was a winter wonderland with several feet of snow as a base, temps in the low 30s during the day (low 50s in Boston).

        I am just expressing my preference for a `real’ winter, that’s all.

        This year, NNE and the ski areas will be fine as they’ve had several major storms as well as frequent accumulating snow squalls from the northwesterlies and the fronts moving through.

    2. That reminds me of some of the temperature contrasts in the storms in the 1970s. We had so many insanely dynamic storms with big temp rises and huge temp drops. We had 2 storms in January 1978 that in my area were 60+ with heavy rain only to be in the teens by evening with clear sky!

        1. Those were some dynamic patterns. We saw a bit of that in the 1990s but I still think the 70s stand out in the years I’ve been observing.

    1. Or not? Hard to say for sure. I probably shouldn’t have said that.

      In any case, looking forward to the 0Z run which should be chugging away now. 😀

      Damn, having trouble seeing. I think I left my glasses at work or I sure hope I did, because they are not around the house here at all.

      1. I’m not sold on any solution yet. With the type of temperature contrast we’ll have in the area, the recent and current performance of models, and the location of the energy even now, I’m just not comfortable.

    1. All in all since the Mets have been discussing this it’s always been the talk of a kitchen sink type storm if you will .

        1. Actually some of them were leaning more snowy for that event, albeit FAR too early to have been saying that.

        2. What do you think I’m talking about . Friday is not a big deal at all Boston / south D-1” maybe

          1. He thought you were referring to Friday because you replied to his post about the Friday system. That’s where the confusion was.

  83. I remember a storm in January of 1999 which started with snow and cold temps (in the teens), changed to an extended overnight period of sleet with temps stuck in the teens, and then freezing rain for a few hours in the morning followed by plain rain as the temps rose through the 30s. Cold and a flash freeze followed the rain. It was certainly interesting.

  84. Heavy snowfall continues to impact the higher elevations in the European Alps. The headlines are misleading, however, as the major cities (lower elevations) have not been impacted by snow. In fact, it’s been fairly mild in most of Western Europe. It’s only as you go up above 3000 or 4000 feet that there’s been tremendous amounts of snow. Of course, higher elevation small cities like Salzburg are impacted.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-46875209/more-snow-forecast-as-parts-of-europe-battle-worst-snowfall-in-decades

    1. The problem with PV splits is a lot of forecasters in the East assume it automatically means a cold/stormy pattern here. Not always. It can be cold/dry. It can also be MILD if the PV lobe goes into the western US. It can be transitional as well. There are so many scenarios.

  88. Not sure if this means anything or if it’s an error or the nam being the nam but at hour 84 0z NAM has the low pressure way south than the previous runs in southern Texas. But the precipitation looks to be in the same area

    1. In that area the pressure field is fairly disorganized because you’re looking at weak surface gradient as much of the energy is still aloft. The low can show up pretty much anywhere. It only means something if it’s surrounded by a few pressure contours, if it’s just one or 2 it’s not that big a deal where it is as it’s considered a “general area” until it’s had a chance to consolidate and find a true center. That will usually happen between central Texas and the Mississippi River.

    2. One thing I have noticed about the 00z NAM at 84 hours is that it is much colder over the northeast than the last few GFS runs. I have a feeling the cold air is going to be more difficult to dislodge than some of the operational runs are indicating.

  91. Big shift on the 00z GFS. 18z GFS on Sunday AM had the low over the Hudson Valley. 00z has it over the Delmarva. Still looks like a changeover to rain/ice in SNE bookended by front and back end thumps of snow.

  92. gfs shifts east, and despite it looking like it changes to rain north and west of Boston, lower levels remain around or below freezing.

  94. 00z GGEM has shifted southeast as well. Similar track to GFS over ACK. Heavy snow to heavy rain/ice to heavy snow scenario for SNE and LOADED with QPF. Delivers up to 3″ QPF in SE MA.

  98. Great shift on the 00z models tonight if you are looking for more snow/frozen precip. with this system. NAM looks cold at 84 hours and the GFS/GGEM shift SE and colder. UKMET and Deep Thunder remain colder as well with offshore tracks. And the ICON? We toss….

    2. It’s on the way in, and already showing less phasing. This is likely not the end of the correction but it should end up further SE on this run and I speculate it may go even more on the next one.

      1. You still think an ots scenario is possible? I know yesterday you mentioned how the low might travel more west than you originally thought. But you and wxwatcher always mentioned an ots scenario

        1. I have not discounted anything yet. It’s not likely we see OTS though. I think the furthest southeast we can see is a grazing, but even that is probably an extreme case at this point.

          Will be interesting to see.

          1. If this storm tracks further se. Does that mean it will be weaker because of no phasing thus meaning only minor moderatestorm?t

            1. I don’t think it would be too much weaker. What is going to make this event what it will be, assuming it lives up to potential, will be the contrast of air masses. We haven’t seen this set-up much this winter so far, a combo of arctic air, very nearby mild and moist air with a nice focus for lift right in the middle.

  102. 00z Euro does indeed follow suit with the rest of the 00z model suite. Low track between the Cape and ACK. Colder solution than 12z. Surface temps remain below freezing during the entire event for most of us except the immediate coastline and SE of I-95.

    Snowmap:
    https://i.postimg.cc/hPBBR7VH/Capture.png

    Kane – congrats on your 30″ of snow!

    1. I’ll be happy with half lol. I saw another map on fb with 10to 1 ratio showing a foot of snow in my area so I am wondering what ratio that map you’re using

  104. Looks like I’m in the bullseye on that ice map JJ. I agree snow is much better than a heavy ice accretion. That screams power outage if the winds pick up. Just in time for the pats game. Hope that scenario doesn’t verify!

  105. When you get ice accumulations to get to a quarter inch or greater that is when power outages and tree damage come into play. I am rooting for a continued southeast trend to get that all snow area here but not too far southeast we get skunked.

  107. I agree, I hope it shifts more sw for snow also..Unfortunately they way we’ve had these marginal freezing rain/ rain events, I think this one may follow that pattern except this time surface temps will be sub freezing. My gut is telling me ice storm around my area, just the feeling I’ve had all along on this one. Hope I’m wrong.

  108. Weather for dummies…

    How can you track on the models whether the phasing is going to occur? I believe TK has said if there is no phasing then the storm will be travel further south. I am guessing this is our best shot for substantial snowfall in eastern mass.

  110. From what I can see, the Euro stays frozen the entire event in Boston with snow to sleet to snow.

    20.58 inches total snow & sleet accumulation for boston.

    I hit the LIKE button.

    1. AHHH I get it now.

      No matter what model is chosen, I get the Euro table.

      IT IS THE EURO that gives boston 26.5 inches!!! EUREKA!!!

  113. I will be in the White Mountains Fri-Mon. While I’m rooting for a big storm, I’m afraid of what I will come home to Monday afternoon. At this point I actually hope SNE gets all snow while we get a little less up there. I think that will make clean up easier in both places for me!

  114. Mark,

    For $5 additional with the F5 service, you get the UKMET, the hrr, the nam, the gfs (FV3 only)
    and the ACCESG Australian. In DDTION TO THE NAM MOS AND GFS MOS ANS THE GFS, CMC AND EPS ENSEMBLES.

    good deal, I think.

Comments are closed.