Thursday Forecast

90 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)
Now comes that spring preview, ok maybe I’m getting a little ahead of myself on that one, but the thought of many that venture outside today, even during the rain, is how much it feels like a spring day. And it should, today’s high temperatures would be above average for some of our early spring days here in New England, but I would also be lying if I told you this was highly unusual for a winter’s day. This is just the variety that our weather prevents, like going from the single-digit arctic deep-freeze of just 3 days ago to this. There will be pros and cons to today’s weather, with the most obvious pro being the natural melting of much of the packed ice/snow that lies on our paths of mobility. Much of this, and all of it in many cases, will be vanished by day’s end. The cons are several, but the most obvious will be the areas of flooding that ensue due to heavier rainfall on frozen ground as well as not being unable to run off due to some still-clogged storm drains. But we will get through this, and after it all pushes offshore tonight, the temperatures will fall back toward seasonable levels, but this time we won’t see the flash freeze and tundra-like landscape. However we will have to be concerned with black ice and re-freezing of puddles and any standing water, because despite an increasing wind it won’t be enough to fully dry everything off. This will also be a concern for the couple days following today as it will be getting cold again so any ice will tend to linger. Along with this colder air, which gets reinforced this weekend, may come some snow showers, first of the isolated variety Friday evening as cold front goes by, and secondly from a disturbance crossing the region on Sunday. We’ll have our eyes on a third system approaching from the west Monday but before that gets here, our wind may turn onshore due to high pressure to the north and that may bring in enough moisture for some ocean-effect snow showers. But this is still a few days away so I’m not highly confident this will take place.
TODAY: Overcast. Numerous to widespread rain showers. Downpours and possible thunder west to east mid through late afternoon. Areas of fog.
Highs 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH with gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest coastal areas, shifting to W during the day from west to east.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain ending, maybe as brief mix some areas west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Areas of black ice possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing snow shower. Lows 13-20. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers except mix/rain showers South Coast. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Potential storm system moving through January 29 with the early leaning toward a light to moderate precipitation variety due to a storm track over or northwest of the region. Colder trend thereafter at which time we’ll have to watch additional storminess which is favored to pass mostly south of the region at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
A broad trough will dominate and a surface low may cut through the Great Lakes around mid period. Our weather here would be dry/cold to start, briefly mild/wet, then dry/cold to finish the period. Forecast not high confidence.

90 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. TK thank you. Black ice … ugh, but melting ice and snow is a good thing right now. What’s on the ground looks ugly!

    1. Because it stays mild into evening and doesn’t drop sharply we will lose a whole lot of ice in the next 12 hours.

  2. Any thoughts yet on approximate timing of the heavy line moving through? I have a client coming from the east for a meeting in Concord (Mass) at 6 pm and I’m coming from the west (Harvard to Concord) – so I’m trying to decide if we should move the meeting time… thanks for any thoughts!
    And JpDave – your wife is in my thoughts. I am allergic to almost all antibiotics as well and have a tendency to get bad and lingering bronchitis and let it run to pneumonia – Please don’t let her do that – make sure she rests and takes her time coming back. It often takes me up to 6 weeks.

      1. You have me chuckling. I think you could not be rude if you tried.

        I am also interested in the answer to this. I have a 6-9 meeting tonight and always take back roads in Sutton. Thank you for asking.

    2. YIKES! Please don’t say 6 weeks!

      Would you get through the pneumonia WITHOUT antibiotics?

      She is resting and drinking plenty of fluids and forcing herself to eat.

      Thank you.

      1. YES! Absolutely – I’ve had it badly enough I’ve been hospitalized for a few weeks twice – and again I can’t take any antibiotics strong enough to tackle a nasty pneumonia – but rest is key – absolutely key. And letting her know she just needs to take her time – however long that is – if she tries to rush recovery she may slide back. Just be tough on her to take her time – recovery from these lung things takes forever!

    1. That would be awesome. Gotta factor in airfare, amped up hotel fees and food even still. I just want to see tom brady play in a normal game at gillette before he retires. Haven’t ever been able to get the money together for that.

  5. Thanks TK.

    It has begun already. Overheard people talking about a snow storm next week. Wondering what the source of that is.

  6. I was a bit nervous about rain on the roof and ice in the gutters but the ice and snow receded nicely from the edge. It sure felt strange walking out into 50 deg temps today, though!

    1. This is why I bought the roofmelt salt pucks from home depot. Had a feeling we might get a few freezing rain storms based on the cycle of weather we have been experiencing.

    1. hmmmm – thank you from me also, TK. I know there is no way to be sure but do you think what water there is on the roads will freeze up during that time?

  10. Thanks TK.

    Dave, I hope your wife is feeling better today.

    All of the snow and ice is already gone from my yard except for the snowpiles along the driveway. 65 DEGREES warmer this morning than it was three mornings ago. Dreadful!

  11. The 0z and 6z models have a colder look to them this AM for the system around Tuesday of next week. Euro and FV3 track the clipper much further south and would introduce some snow here. Even the GFS, which tracks the system NW of us, gets the cold air in here fast enough with the frontal passage that we have a rain to snow situation. So some hope for having a white landscape back here by middle of next week.

  13. Last week I wrote some about how the ECWMF for all its strenghts is targeting dates of potential disturbed weather it has really developed problems with extent of the cold particularly at the surface. I pointed to its modeled temps on 1/18 for Monday 1/21.

    It did hit right on for Worcester at 1010 feet

    Worcester 1010 ft modeled 1 actual high 1 deviation 0

    North Adams 650 ft modeled -7 actual high 1 deviation 8

    Springfield 200 ft modeled 1 actual high 4 deviation 3

    Windsor Locks 170 ft modeled 0 actual high 5 deviation 5

    Boston 20 ft modeled modeled 6 actual high 10 deviation 4

    I could remove the high and the low deviation but it still leaves me at an average deviation of 4 degrees. I know all of you know what a difference in actual weather outcomes 4 degrees can make in SNE during the winter. This is just an extremely narrow example of what I have seen going on with the ECWMF since the summer time. Just keep it mind when you explore possible outcomes.

    I can tell you that a deviation of 4 is horrendous. Even back in the days of the of mos outputs from the No Good Model or the Average Verifcation Never model that kind of verification was not acceptable.

  14. Tough morning in Raynham for first responders. All of the power seemed to be out around 6:30. It was out on my commute from the Taunton to Lakeville lines along Route 44. None of the traffic signals were working. Don’t know if that was weather-related or not. I am checking.

    Then there was flat bed roll over on the ramp from 24 to 495 in Raynham.

    Winds really gusting now in the Boro.

    2. Lights continually blinking, but have not gone out.

      However, enough of a blink that it has interrupted my projected lesson at times because the wifi keeps temporarily shutting off.

      1. Got through the school day without a blink. Small outages in Lakeville and East Middleborough earlier, but lights back on now.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    Snow is melting – but I would call it more of a “flattening-out”. Hard to explain. Still plenty of snow around here.

    JP – hoping your wife is better soon. She’s doing the right thing, rest and drinking a lot. I have had bronchitis and I know it’s hard to eat much. Maybe eating light foods and not forcing to eat anything heavy is ok. I am no doctor. Hot soups, vegetable, chicken, beef broth, etc. is good w/a piece of bread.

  19. Just saw an 81 mph wind gust atop Blue Hill. That’s 8 miles due South of my house.
    WOW! Blowing pretty good here, but not that hard. perhaps up to 40 mph.

    Unfortunately, where I had to install my AcuRite, it is protected from the wind.
    I place it for best collection of rain and temperature. It is showing high wind
    of only 21 mph.

    1. Mine is not protected and says a high gust of 23 for the day. I would have guessed higher. A few time the house shook a fair amount. But it is hitting straight on the front. The wind is fairly consistent from 10-14mph.

  20. Looking for any signs of wintry precipitation.
    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Tuesday PM worth watching next week. Risk for snow/mix followed by a freeze up. Stay tuned.

      1. It would seem the prolific rain pattern has definitely returned.

        I’m grateful getting the ice off sidewalks today but we don’t need anymore rain for awhile…until spring!

  21. Duxbury getting hit hard . Lights have been flickering here on and off some areas in town out .

  22. Did anyone here see the video of our Patriot mascot getting body slammed to the ground by a Pro Bowl player? I thought I heard the newscaster say it was a player from the Jets.

    BEYOND DISGRACEFUL!!!!

      1. I don’t think so Tk I just saw on tv he’s in the hospital & the league is BS!!!!! No regrets from the Jet.

          1. Yeah I just saw it on the sports it was a Jet player & he has no regrets . POS should be heavily fined .

    2. Also extremely silly and pitiful if you ask me. Furthermore, the Pro Bowl is meaningless. I guess for the player in question it’s a consolation prize, but it has no meaning besides the honor of being selected. The Patriots excel as a team. They’re not well-represented in the All Pro or Pro Bowl selections. That’s fine with me.

  23. Philip, these rains approximately every 3 or 4 days for the past 9 months are getting to me, too. The pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future, albeit with some mix events in the forecast (kitchen sink precipitation doesn’t thrill me either as it’s messy to get around in during and after – which is very different from all-snow). I shouldn’t mope about the weather, but I do when it’s a grind.

  24. As anyone ever been to York England? Im looking at a few programs at University of York. European country schools are so much cheaper than USA schools lol. I am wondering how it is to live there. It would be about a year and a half. time with another half being some where else in terms of this program that I am applying too.
    Another is anyone been to Santa Cruz California, looking at a few jobs and at program at UC and UCS in that area. Lots of possible locations I could be in the next year or so.

    1. I have several times. Once for a conference, and once to speak with several professors with whom I co-authored an article. Beautiful university town. Cathedral is spectacular. People are very friendly. University is superb. May not be Oxford or Cambridge, but it’s darn close.

  25. TK, I’m not the expert. You are. And I appreciate your comments very much. But, I beg to differ that we’ve entered a different precipitation pattern. I certainly realize the overall pattern has changed. But, the results are the same or at least similar in terms of precipitation frequency and amounts. I follow this closely and write it down in an old-fashioned calendar planner, and it really has rained approximately every 3 or 4 days for 9 months. It’s been astoundingly consistent in this regard. Sometimes copious amounts, sometimes not, with lots of gray days in between. More gray days in the past 9 months than I have ever seen in a 9 month period in Boston. In fact, I would say that gray is usually confined to periods in springtime in Boston, and that we rarely get much gray (I call it `nothing’ weather, which I was accustomed to in the UK and the Netherlands) in summer, fall or winter. That has clearly not been the case.

    1. I also follow this stuff very closely as I have for decades. I was referring to prolific. I did not say that we had infrequent system passages. you referred to writing down both of them but then only gave information on frequency but not amounts. A lot of the systems we had after the November snow event through early December, and sporadically during December were not prolific rain events. So while the active pattern in terms of amount of passing systems has been pretty consistent, the production of each has not. Please see my next comment.

  26. FYI: Boston’s December precipitation was 2.72 inches which is 1.06 inch BELOW NORMAL. That’s not prolific. We need to make sure we understand the difference between active pattern and wet pattern. December WAS NOT a wet month.

    In addition, before today’s event (through January 23 climate data), Boston was running a 0.11 inch deficit for the month of January, putting the meteorological winter to date just shy of 1 1/4 inch drier than the average.

    Today we’ll obviously skew that in the other direction. However there are no further prolific events of any consequence in the pipeline as far as I can tell and the expected pattern through February overall would put us in the category of cold and dry for meteorological winter as a whole. So any solid references to the pattern being the same as what we experienced in the autumn are incorrect. Active weather pattern? Yes. Frequent prolific rainfall pattern? No.

  27. The last hour, I really think we gusted to 60 or better multiple times.

    It reminded me very much of the first March storm last year.

    It has calmed down some the last 10 minutes or so.

        2. You have issues thought . Tree or pole on house in the ocean bluff area . All I hear is sirens down this end

          1. Yes, I hear sirens in the background occasionally as well.

            We really have a ton of trees …. almost sections of forest on the south shore. Very susceptible to tree damage in wind storms.

  29. The LLJ today was truly incredible. Among the strongest you’ll ever see. Blue Hill isn’t that high up, and gusting to ~80mph even there is highly unusual. The hi-res guidance was fantastic with this event.

    Like TK, I believe this is our last heavy rain event for awhile, and the pattern overall should trend drier. Not seeing a lot of snow on the horizon either. Watching for that possible Arctic air outbreak next week, potentially similar to what we just experienced.

  30. Just saw on Facebook statement from town DPW. Multiple trees down with power outages. They are hoping for folks to stay off the road.

    That squall line and even the heavy yellow echoes east of the red echoes of the squall line …. that heavy batch of rain really mixed the low level jet to the surface btwn 3:15 and say 4:15.

    It was very windy all day, but that hour was something.

  31. Regarding the discussion on the wet pattern we are in, this will be the 9th consecutive month of well above normal precipitation throughout SNE. There are towns in SE MA that will be over 8-9″ on the month of January after today and we still have a week to go.

    In my own rain gauge, I have recorded over 5″ of rain every month since last June and several of those months were much higher than that.

    Regarding December, I don’t know how Boston came in below normal but it was not indicative of what was occurring throughout the rest of SNE. Call it another Logan anomaly but these were the December totals elsewhere:

    BDL – 4.95″ / departure from normal +1.5″
    ORH – 4.65″ / departure from normal +0.83″
    PVD – 3.85″ / departure from normal +1.0″
    My house – 5.05″

    I concur with Joshua that we are still in a very wet pattern here whether it is an anomaly or not. The cold and dry we have been expecting has never materialized. Looking at the models, perhaps that is finally about to change but I am a bit skeptical as well. We are in a persistent stretch here that doesn’t want to seem to let up.

    1. There was a solid stretch of 3 weeks where the pattern was broken, even in those locations.

        1. THIS event is prolific. I never said it wasn’t.

          People are not actually understanding what I’m getting at. I give up. 🙂

          1. I understand :). I haven’t really thought of the word prolific fitting that for most of these events.

  32. 12z Euro is indeed more interesting with the Tuesday threat. A bit further south and perhaps with coastal redevelopment in time to change things over from rain to accumulating snow inland.

    Here is the trusty snowmap for Tuesday from my service. Even if you cut these numbers in half, it’s enough to make things interesting for interior areas:

    https://i.postimg.cc/cCM0PWVH/Capture.png

  34. On the overall pattern… I tend to side more with those who think it hasn’t really changed, at least in terms of sensible impacts. A steady dose of high moisture content systems passing near or west of us. The bigger picture hemispheric and global scale patterns have certainly changed around, but the results haven’t been much different. A little drier overall, not dramatically. But I do think we’re in for a more substantial change to drier in the coming weeks.

    One thing that has been a near constant: we’ve teetered precariously close to a severe flood event for several months now. Back in the fall we had several of those major rain events, but all spaced out just well enough to avoid widespread flooding. One additional poorly timed rainmaker or especially a tropical system could’ve been very bad. More recently, we’ve remained wet but have been spared by the lack of a snowpack. If today’s event had occurred with a foot of snow on the ground, we’d be in a very bad situation. And we weren’t far off at all from that happening. As it is, a number of rivers are in the NE/mid-Atlantic are over their banks today.

    1. People keep trying to tell me it’s the exact same pattern. It’s not, as you have stated, but the result has been that it has remained active. But even the places that have run precipitation surpluses, they have not been all that far above normal. It’s been more about the frequency, and not nearly as much the amounts. I am pretty sure the slower drift toward a drier pattern has been (in theory) largely to MJO being a non-player and for a while leading many medium range and beyond medium range models astray.

  35. Power was out here from about 12:30PM to 3:30PM. Tree limb fell in front of house next door and took down a line. It’s rare for my area to lose power in weather events.

    1. Glad nobody was hurt. I’m sorry to hear about the power outage, too.

      And TK, I really do understand where you’re coming from in terms of weather patterns. But, I did want to voice my perception regarding the persistence of a generally active pattern within a pattern, so to speak. As you said, many of the events did not produce abundant rain. Nevertheless, there have been plenty of them and if one is a friend of clouds and gray skies this period’s been something else. Because of the frequent grays the foliage produced a beautiful contrast which I photographed almost every day this fall.

      By the way, I live in a euphemistically named “garden level” apartment. Just call it a basement apartment. I worry with prolific rain events, or snow melt after a significant snowstorm. Just now my exposed brick walls on the inside started `bleeding’ water, and now I’ve got puddles on the floor and mantle. This happened in the summer of 2008 (August), but has not ever happened other than that in the time that I’ve lived here (since March 2003).

      1. I hope the water stops coming in soon. This thing is moving out so it’ll be a break coming up.

        We used to get frequent water in the basement here, sometimes across the entire thing. But some work was done that resulted in this getting taken mostly under control. Sometimes we still get some, but not to the same extent.

    2. I live in a big neighborhood half the hood is out & half on . Luckily I’m on. We had lots of damage here & surrounding towns .

  36. My street is covered with water with snow banks on the side, neibor’s garbage cans are all over the place. Water is pooring down into my yard and into the marsh.

        1. Well, January 1978 makes these month look lame, but it was extremely active with both rainstorms and snowstorms, but then we entered a quiet and very cold period after the January 26 warm rainstorm (Chicago’s Blizzard of ’78). It was calm but frigid at the end of January and for the first 5 days of February. Different setup then versus now though. 🙂

  37. Temp is dropping rather rapidly here. Down to 37 . I expect we are going to see some areas of black ice forming soon.

  38. 2.39 in Sutton today but that doesn’t of course include the snow melt. When I came home from meeting I thought I heard running water up toward the end of my street. I’m now pretending I imagined it. I have not checked our front yard sink hole and am pretending I imagined it also

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