Friday Forecast

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)
Dry air has replaced the mild/wet/windy weather of yesterday. A secondary cold front may produce a snow shower this evening and will lead colder air into the region for the start of the weekend. Later in the weekend a passing disturbance may bring showers of snow and rain. With a trough in place in the Northeast another low pressure system will bring the chance of snow/mix/rain by Monday night into Tuesday. Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers mid afternoon on. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers evening. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty early, diminishing overnight.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing snow and rain showers possible. Highs 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny day. Clouds arrive with a risk of snow late night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain/mix/snow. Temperatures generally in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
A period of below to much below normal temperatures as a lobe of the polar vortex brings arctic air into the region during this period. No major storminess expected, just some light snow or snow showers events possible.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
My leaning is toward colder and drier than normal at this time with polar jet stream dominant and mean polar vortex lobe position in eastern Canada.

47 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Tuesday certainly is looking interesting. The Euro, CMC, and ICON now want to develop secondary low pressure along the trailing cold front from the Great Lakes clipper over the Southeast and bring it up the coast. GFS still has coastal redevelopment closer to us. Regardless, looks like a possible rain to snow situation with significant accumulations across the interior.

    00z Euro Snowmap:
    https://i.postimg.cc/BntzYYMH/Capture.png

    00z CMC snowmap (10:1):
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019012500&fh=156

    1. Indeed Mark & thank you for posting this . As I said yesterday we at least need too keep an eye on Tuesday.

    2. Thanks for sharing. A note though: postimg as an image host for most mobile phones immediately take you offsite to inescapable spam. (Imgur or http://mixtape.moe are both better for mobile devices.)

      1. I remember someone remarking that any superbowl weekend the pats participate jn where we get a foot of snow… the patriots win. Never bothered to look it up to disprove it. lol

  2. I don’t think those looking for snow will be too happy with next week’s evolution… That midweek system has rain written all over it, at least for most of SNE. If it’s just the Arctic blast you’re looking for, that will deliver for later in the week. Any threat for the Super Bowl weekend likely ends up suppressed as the cold lingers.

    Trust me, it wouldn’t be fun if every winter was a big snow producer. I’m rather enjoying the almost comical progression of different ways the atmosphere is conspiring to keep the snow away ๐Ÿ™‚

    I do feel bad for the plow drivers/contractors though, it’s obviously a risky business since you’re taking a chance on the weather, but this has been a tough season for them.

    1. I also feel bad for the person who created a new app a few years back called Yeti. Itโ€™s basically shovelling on demand. Drop your location on a map and someone claims the job to shovel you out. Imagine launching the app for boston – having a decent 2018 but next to nothing in 2019.

    2. I donโ€™t feel bad for the snow plow drivers at all. Last Sunday morning, a plow from the street facing me pushed that snow onto my sidewalk which resulted in passersby unable to pass and had to go out into the street. There was no reason whatsoever to do that. All he had to do was either make a turn left or right onto my street and continue, NOT continue across my street and dump that snow on my sidewalk! Late yesterday afternoon was the first time all week that people were able walk by safely. Imagine if we had a foot of snow!

      I have since reported the incident to city hall but prior to the next storm (if there is a next one this season) I plan to contact city hall in advance and mention again what occurred previously to make sure it doesnโ€™t happen again.

        1. True, but there are those who plow too aggressively and make extra work for us property owners to keep our sidewalks and driveways clear. My situation could have been serious if there had been tons of snow like in 2015.

  3. I’d like to see how the short range guidance handles the Tuesday System once in range. I’m not particularly amped up for anything, but at least it’s something to watch

  4. Thank you, TK.

    It looks like once again NNE makes out very well in terms of snow with Tuesday’s system. Unlike yesterday – when it rained everywhere in NE – Tuesday will likely bring the kitchen sink to SNE with mostly snow to NNE. I believe Mt. Washington has already gotten 190 inches of snow. That area is going over 200 inches for sure by the middle of next week. Coastal had asked about snow totals for Bartlett, NH, which is close to Mt. Washington. While it’s not 190 inches, it’s probably over 100 inches. And if I had to guess it’s around 115 inches for the year.

    I am hoping that we really get into a dryer pattern after next Monday/Tuesday. I realize this may mean little or no snow. But, I’m tired of gray and rain.

  5. Vicki… TAYQ above: I’m better but I do have a sinus infection. Normal occurrence. 90% of the s.i.’s I get clear themselves without medication. It is causing quite the headache though. Grr!

    1. So sorry to hear this. My youngest typically gets sinus infections and they are nasty, especially the headache party. Hope you feel better!

  6. 12z Euro maintains the theme of a pretty big storm developing over the Southeast next Tuesday and riding up the East Coast as a Nor’easter. It’s a coastal hugger though so still too warm for SNE for all snow. Still, we get accumulation in most areas per the Euro with big totals in NNE.

    12z Euro snowmap:
    https://imgur.com/a/GXVprVF

    Dr Stupid – I am testing imgur out this time per your recommendation. I did not realize “postimages” had all that spam when opening mobile. It always looked fine when opening it on my PC.

    1. If you figure out how to post from IMGUR with mobile, please let me know.
      I have Not been able to do so. thanks

  7. I had to laugh. Even though, for obvious reasons, my 11-15 is very low confidence, I tried to commit a bit to the cold/dry idea and immediately after I do that our friend the GFS tries to warm us up where I had been calling for a potential warm up previously. Ya.

    The ECMWF, IMO, is over-amplifying (surprise surprise) the entire system early next week so that its solution is very likely overdone. Otherwise, I think it has a generally decent idea of the pattern well into next week.

  8. The 12z GFS looks nothing like the Euro for next week. The parent storm tracks way to the north in Canada with no coastal redevelopment until the Maritimes. Its basically a cold front passage for us with rain showers ending as snow showers.

    And beyond that it is brutal. More of the same crap…..warm cutter -> cold -> warm cutter -> cold

    FV3, CMC, and Euro look somewhat better but none have any major snow threats on the horizon. It does appear we will have an ocean storm during Superbowl weekend but looks at this point to stay well offshore. Still something to watch.

    1. Both the GFS & ECMWF are having their patented issues today. ๐Ÿ˜‰ So neither 12z is up to par. I think some of my fellow mets would agree here.

      FV3 and CMC are so bad that they don’t even enter the mix for consideration.

  9. I don’t think we need more rain. The danger of flooding seems very real this spring if this continues. On the good news front, our front lawn sink hole seems to be deeper but not wider in circumference.

  10. the next system I would be worried about Ice again ๐Ÿ˜‰ Also Not sure whats up with that snow map with the euro, but my service is 10-1 and does not show nearly that much snow in southern areas.

    1. That is a special algorithm F5 weather uses for their Euro snow calculations. It supposedly takes into account ratios, sleet, etc. It is too high most of the time.

  11. I will add that the marsh behind my house is up to 5 feet of water and still rising at the old river bed at the end of my back yard.

  12. I find the potential Tues-Wed event a bit interesting …..

    Many times, a primary low to the west would turn our surface winds S.

    However, this time, the surface flow is likely to remain ENE because a low will be passing by to our southeast later Monday and a wedge of high pressure will also be nosing in from northeast to southwest.

    Looks chilly at 850mb throughout. I guess I’m offering that the boundary layer may not be able to moderate as much as usual and if a secondary low develops, it might be cold enough close to boston tues night and Wednesday.

    1. I was looking closely at the Euro regarding that.
      I’ll post some findings for you…
      The 0C line at 925 mb is draped just about through Boston. 850 0c draped across south coast or close to it. Points North of Boston likely all snow. Boston could go either way. To the South rain to snow.

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