Thursday Forecast

91 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
As you step outside this morning, beware of some icy patches, which in some areas may be covered by a fresh coating to 1 inch of snow due to some snow squalls last evening, which were certainly a little more potent than I expected them to be as they came across the region. But these slick spots will largely vanish today as we have at least some sunshine and temperatures head to several degrees above freezing, courtesy high pressure which will be in control. Our next foul weather system is not going to be much of a big deal, but will be as low pressure travels across southern Canada, bringing it’s warm front / cold front combo across our area during the course of Friday. This sets up a colder weekend, extended to 3 days for many as Monday is Presidents Day. During the course of this weekend we will see 2 low pressure areas pass south of the region. The first should be a clean miss during Saturday. The second may be close enough for at least the threat of a period of light snow around early Monday, but no guarantee at this point.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief mix possible favoring areas north and west of Boston morning. Rain showers possible west to east late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind light SE early, then SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible early. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
Dry February 19. Another passing wave of low pressure to the south may be close enough to bring a snow/mix threat February 20 followed by clearing February 21. Right now leaning to dry weather for the remainder of the period with temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Our short month of February comes down its home stretch with a pattern that this far in advance looks dry and seasonably chilly with a subtropical jet stream suppressed to the south and a fairly dry polar jet stream nearby.

91 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Dr. Not sure if you saw my response to your picture. I do not believe those are bird tracks. Biggest bird you probably have that walks is a turkey here in New England but their tracks are very distinct, They are very skinny with 3 ligements generally making around a 90 degree spread. I believe thats a fishercat track. Watch your animals. Of course If I could get a picture thats closer up that would help, it also could just be a bad smaller mammal track but I can guarantee thats no bird.

    1. If indeed he has a cat in the area he’ll here it at night . The scream will make you want to jump out of bed .

    1. In response to your question last night:
      Dr. Stupid Feb 13, 2019 at 9:32 PM
      Side question – anyone know what would leave these tracks https://i.imgur.com/Sx8ir7G.jpg

      Fairly confident those are rabbit tracks. The two smaller front paws land in the same spot so it looks like three marks instead of four. Had them here as well, with the tracks easily seen in the new dusting of snow last night. Actually saw the rabbit too, he was momentarily frozen in the headlights at the top of the drive. But they sure take off fast.

      Also, thanks TK for the forecast.

          1. lmao i have resigned myself to not being quite sure because those were the only tracks and the rest would have been in an area where i shovelled.

          2. You may be right; on closer inspection the rabbit tracks are not quite so v-shaped. So my “fairly confident” is out the window. Like coastal said below, blowing snow can obscure track edges, but wouldn’t a normal turkey print have that center claw? Now not sure at all.

            We have a surprising variety of nightlife as I have seen fox, raccoon, opossum, rabbit, skunk, woodchuck, deer and coyote on our street, and it’s not rural.

    1. But so perfectly covering up a third for each step? I postulated it being a turkey that lost part of its feet lol

      1. I was thinking the wind direction and angle of the track is why it could have covered just that section. Or it was tipsy toeing. lol

        1. Agree with your assessment. I think they are turkey tracks. Matt is right that we don’t have many large bird in New England. But the turkey is large, has a v-shaped track. As Coastal said, it was probably tip-toeing. Turkeys are never quite sure when Thanksgiving is. Better safe than sorry.

  8. The wildlife in urban and suburban settings in the U.S. (and the North American continent) is quite astounding. If you do live in the suburbs or even a suburban section of Boston (I don’t, by the way), starting in March set up a camera outside on your back deck or in your lawn or garden and you will amazed at what you see: rabbits, skunks, possums, raccoons, foxes, groundhogs, sometimes even a badger.

    1. Just get outside of the immediate downtown. A couple years ago I saw a group of turkeys strutting along Huntington Ave. near the Longwood Medical area.

      1. There is a group that has lived in Brookline for years also, Philip. I was truly surprised when I heard that. And good for them.

        1. I saw my first one last year as it ran across the road in front of me on a back road from Framigham to Hopkinton.
          COOL!!! loved seeing it.

        1. Is the system Monday old salty off I know last night the possibility was maybe for something Monday . How about the Tuesday night/ Wednesday event is that still a possibility

    1. I think I am incorrect. I’m deferring to Matt on this one. I looked at the prints again and they are not as distinct as a birds should be, especially at the tip.

  13. I lived in Brookline in the late 90s, and as Vicki said a large group of turkeys took up residence there. Maybe because there are so many vegans in Brookline?

      1. I heard on the tv news once that those turkeys in Brookline are vicious and literally attack people. I always assumed that they are afraid of humans, if anything. Obviously the Brookline turkeys don’t mess around.

        1. They are definitely not afraid of humans. My oldest used to have them at the barn where she kept her horse. They blocked the very long driveway when her husband was leaving one day. He got out to sho them away and they went after him. Nothing worked….honking, moving forward slowly, etc. Of course, I thought it was hysterical!

          I watched a fox pass by one on our hill out back last summer. It gave the turkey a wide berth also.

          1. They are afraid of me. They RUN and/or fly away from me. Why? I think most people are afraid of them and the birds know it. They don’t scare me in the slightest. Just a damn bird and they know I am not afraid of them. If one ever attacked me (which has NEVER happened, ever), I’d grab it by the throat and put a stop to the attack. :d No I would not harm the bird, not matter what the above statement sound like.
            I actually LIKE turkeys, I really do.

  14. SSK… My latest thoughts on the Monday threat are up in the original post. No changes at this point.

  15. 12z models are pretty dreadful.

    Monday looks like a brushing with some light nuisance snow. Or if you believe the Euro, a complete miss.

    The midweek system now looks messy with warm air getting involved and pretty disorganized to boot.

    Another threat showing up next weekend but again, looks like we would be dealing with ptype issues.

    Just cant buy one pure snowstorm this season!

      2. That would be because rainstorms are rainstorms and don’t have p-type issues. 😉

        Also, you know this is not always the case. This may be an extreme example, but tell me we had p-type issues between January 27 & March 8 2015. 😉

  16. Question is the squall alerts new this year I know it was talked about a few weeks ago . I saw it again last night .

    1. They are new as of last year I believe. The NWS talked to the public via their web page and asked for input on things people would like to add or change. That was one of them.

  17. Updated thoughts…
    No big changes really. Impossible to do given the magnitude of confidence from high in the short term to low in the medium term. That said, I still lean toward a pretty definite miss Saturday, a miss or a graze Sunday night / early Monday, and a hit later Wednesday. I think some of the guidance may actually be overplaying the warming on that one. Watch for adjustments by guidance in both streams that could actually put us in a better position for a light or moderate snow event (not major) later Wednesday to early Thursday of next week. Yes, I know it’s out on a limb in a bad guidance time. Believe me I don’t need to be reminded. And since I’m out on that limb yet again I’ll dangle a rope from it and say I have a hunch we get a broad Pacific storm around February 24 and looking way out I have a funny feeling about the weekend of March 2-3. And now I shall slide careful down that rope so as to avoid a burn and plant my feet safely back on the surface of the earth here and start looking at the more confident short term forecast for the next few days. 😉

    1. It won’t hurt to keep it open, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. If it does, it’s Sunday night & early Monday.

  19. BREAKING NEWS!!

    MJO has made it to phase 8! 😉

    A weak phase 8, but phase 8 nonetheless.

    The GFS Ensemble outlooks have it mostly hanging in weak 8 but not far from dropping into neutral. A few members have it scraping phase 1 in several days. Does that increase the chance of a widespread snow event in SNE? On paper, yes. But the atmosphere isn’t made of paper, so we’ll see. 😉

      1. In general, 8, 1, and 2 are our best “snow phases”. But it’s not automatic. Some areas had their largest snow event of the winter so far while we were in phase 4 or 5. 😉

  20. JPD:
    Totally respecting your privacy and praying that no news is good news, how is Mrs. OS doing these days?

    1. Slowly on the mend. It really knocked the crap out of her. It took a trip to urgent care, her pcp office and the ED at the Brigham.

      Thank you.

      2. As I always say, slow progress is better than no progress. Let’s hope all of this continues to head in the right direction.

  21. 2-14-19 by the numbers:

    5:17 sunset
    10:38 length of day
    39 degree max temp
    29 degree min temp
    14.1 snowstorm this day in 2015
    34″ snow depth this day in 2015
    -9 degree min temp this day in 2015 (Remember the wooden houses knocking and banging?)
    -11 degree min temp this day in 2016 (coldest temp ever recorded at KBOX)
    8.53″ of precip in the first 45 days of 2019

    53 days till Red Sox Fenway Opening Day and Ring Ceremony
    1 day till February School Vacation!

    Happy Valentine’s Day!

  22. No joke. Pretty sure I have black bear prints around my trash can. And they have been spotted in the neighborhood before.

  23. Good news re: your wife, JPDave. I hope the progress continues.

    Today was a typical mid February winter’s day in which how cold it felt depended very much on whether you were walking in the shade or sun. Cold in the shade, especially with the wind, and much `warmer’ in the sun. The sun is getting `stronger’ by the day. By March the winter days have an even more pronounced difference in feel between shade and sun.

    I’m losing hope regarding snow or even much cold the rest of this winter. It just isn’t there. All I hope for is less heat and humidity this summer and a `real’ autumn with less rain and more sunshine.

  25. TK – Is that Pacific storm around February 24 the type that drags in lots of mild air long before it arrives? The Pineapple Express?

    1. Well I can’t speculate on the degree of mildness but if that system is something that does exist and threaten it is of Pacific origin. In fact we have a very very extensive moisture train that runs from Australia, yes, Australia, all the way to the US Southwest. Cross-equatorial moisture flow which we don’t see all that often.

  26. TK thanks for the update above. Valentines Day seems to have brought out a little friskiness in you (to the casual and less-informed observer). Hoping you are right!

    1. That’s one way to put it. If you are referring to the over-extended prediction, I was doing a little intensive “a.m.e.” forecasting today. This is when I kind of take into account all the biases models have, apply them to the current pattern, and kind of re-run an “ensemble” if you will in my head, and come up with a scenario I feel is most likely.

      1. btw a.m.e. stands for “anticipated model error” and can be applied in both short, medium, and extended range guidance.

  29. Glad your wife is better old salty . Nice to see the weather maps are back . At least Monday if called in would be holiday pay.

  31. Looking at Long range and looking at spring, The EURO Monthlies VS CFS
    EURO
    March: Around normal (boundry with SE ridge and colder temps just to the north.)
    April: Above normal temps
    May: Above normal temps.
    June: Normal Temps

    CFS temps
    March: Normal to below normal
    April: above normal
    May Above normal
    June Above normal

Comments are closed.