Saturday Forecast

9:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
2 threats of unsettled weather exist during this 5-day period, as the first of what would be 3 remains far to the south to start the weekend. The first actual impact threat to SNE, a small area of low pressure, passes south of the region Sunday night and early Monday but with the bulk of the moisture staying just to the south and a lot of dry air in place, and factoring in guidance over-forecasting precipitation, will go for very light snowfall amounts. A break behind it before a slightly larger and slightly more moisture-laden system approaches by later Wednesday and with enough cold air in place to begin as snow.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light snow arriving. Lows 22-29. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Cloudy start with light snow ending west to east by midday after accumulating a coating to 1 inch along the South Coast except up to 2 inches on Nantucket and a dusting to a coating everywhere else. Clearing afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Snow/mix/rain likely February 21 as a storm passes near or just south of the region (track and precipitation type still somewhat uncertain). Next storm threat about February 24 may drag milder air in with it and be a mix to rain set-up but still quite far out there and low confidence. Dry weather between systems and to end the period as well. Temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Next storm threat in a stubborn pattern would be right around February 28 with another possibly to follow around the end of the period.

126 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. NAM, and somewhat GFS, are over-forecasting precipitation. Subsidence, confluence, and anticyclonic upper flow are NOT favorable factors here.

  2. NWS downplaying too. Top amount 2 inches near the S Coast, coating to 1 everywhere else S Coast, less than 1 remainder of region.

    1. I did see that. Interesting.

      ERIC said 1-3 last night on the 11PM broadcast.

      I also find it interesting that the 0Z euro was up from the 12Z euro.
      Wonder what today’s 12Z run will show?

      the 3KM NAM made a huge jump between the 6Z and 12Z run.

  3. 9Z SREF Mean snow from all ensemble members is 3.0 inches for boston with members high of 6 and low of 0.1. πŸ˜€

      1. Yes it was, but I should have been more specific. It will come down in future runs I think, but it has a better detailed evolution of the snow area with highest amounts in southwestern New England and the factors I spoke of above showing their influence elsewhere.

  4. I’ll join TK and NWS Boston in generally thinking lower totals on the Monday system, especially away from the South Coast. One possible exception is that I could see a decent 2-4″ band in southern CT/RI/southeast MA as we get some energy transfer occurring, but there will likely be a sharper N-S gradient than currently depicted. Dynamics with this system are poor. Weak lift in the snow growth zone, and models hanging onto accumulating precip too long as subsidence sets in. North of the CT/RI borders with MA, I think it’ll be tough to exceed an inch. But we’ve still got some time to watch it, so not 100% confident yet. However, coming on a holiday weekend, it should be a fairly low impact event.

          1. If it’s just a sugar coating maybe not anything more than that would result in calling in the crew

              1. I’m assuming your asking me a question & not being sarcastic ?? Harvey has taking a bad rap here & last I knew it was suggested we do not put down Mets here . So if you want to know I have not seen anything from him today just last night . Harvey is a very good meteorologist as well as others . As we know I think they are all known to Jump our of the gate a tad to fast . Have a nice day Keith

                1. Ssk….I suspect you are referring to my comment on Mets. I never said not to mention Mets. I probably said not to put them down in the true sense. But I did say if people do name a met, i believe it should be an accurate quote. Anything else is just wrong. And I think everyone likes Harvey. He was at a number of parties I attended years ago and is an awesome person.

                2. SSK…just wondering. You lean toward Harvey. Legit question. And BTW how did the advice I gave you about SSMC work out for you? Have a nice day SSK.

                3. And I like Harvey…in fact there really isn’t one met I don’t like. And if you bothered to check any past posts I made then you would know I never put down a Met.

  5. According to Barry, the Wednesday/Thursday system is the usual snow to rain scenario.

    Followed by flash freeze at night as well?

  6. Wednesday’s storm does not impress me either. That one will be drying up as it approaches, withering in the subsidence of the Southeast ridge. Some snow/mix is likely, but it will not be a major storm.

    1. To amplified and feel like there will be secondary development, but probably to late like all the other systems we been dealing with

  7. I’m not yet convinced that we awesome up much for the midweek system but I do share WxW’s opinion of it in general about the subsidence factor.

  8. Kelly from ch 5 has Boston at 1-3 saying probably low end . She said around 10pm Sunday night through most of Monday

    1. Exactly what I was talking about with the N-S gradients and highest amounts in southern areas. And less QPF. This run looks very good to me.

  9. Time is ticking. Winter will officially be over in a precious few weeks.

    4.8” to date
    9.0” = 1936-37

    1. Philip, where did that extra 1/10 come from? Did they get 1/10 inch from
      that squall the other night? Please advise and I’ll update my spreadsheet.

      I currently have them at 4.7 inches.

      1. That squall only recorded a Trace but the last Tuesday event gave Logan 2.4” bringing the total snowfall to date at 4.8”.

        You know how Logan is, it takes a gazillion measurements to get a final snow total. πŸ˜‰

  10. In comparing the 18Z HRRR with the 18Z RDPS, it appears to me that the HRRR
    would place the northern edge of the “heavier” snow 50-75 miles farther North.
    Ie into the Boston Area. We;ll see what the 0Z 36 hour HRRR does with it.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    Looking ahead it’s really more of the same: Systems drop by every 3 days or so and tend to give us more rain or mix than snow, cold never lingers, blah blah blah. In fact, there isn’t any real cold or significant snow in the long-range. Winter’s going down without a fight. That’s unusual, but appears to be the case this year. No umpf, no bite, no nothing. Not as bad as 2011-2012, but pretty darn close in SNE. I realize that NNE is a totally different story.

      1. Is that if you think of a roller coaster or a ridge. The up and down part, that’s how the snow projections look. Going SW to NE through NY state, then NW to SE through New England. Like a ridge, where precip generation isn’t great or in this case, sustainable.

  12. Ch. 7 is really bullish on widespread 2-4. The met showed a model with deep blues covering all of SNE for quite a long duration into Monday afternoon.

    Ch. 7 has been really good in forecasting amounts so far this winter. Hard to go against them. Does their streak end on President’s Day? πŸ˜‰

  13. 0Z models are all over the place, led by the NAM which is now showing 6 inches.
    HRRR not bullish followed by the next non-bullish the RDPS.

  14. Anticyclonic curvature. Imaging yourself riding along the upper winds. You’d be turning slowly to the right. That turn is anticyclonic.

  15. An RGEM/HRDPS blend pretty much gets you right to my forecast from yesterday morning; 2-4″ band over far southern SNE, C-2″ up to around the CT/RI borders with MA, C-1″ north of there. I still like that idea.

    Seeing the most of the US hi-res guidance (WRFs, NAM, RAP) showing widespread 5-8″ doesn’t add a lot of confidence, but I think they’re just plain wrong. The Canadian short range guidance has consistently outperformed them this season. I continue to think Boston struggles to exceed an inch. Much more spread in the guidance than usual so close to the event. I’d hate to have to make this forecast for real though in SNE, because I’d don’t think I’d be able to go with numbers as low as I’d like to in the face of the higher guidance. My map probably wouldn’t look much different than the current NWS map, although I could definitely tighten the N-S gradient significantly such that the 2″ totals don’t go too far north of Boston, and could also subtract an inch off some places south of the Pike. But again, I’d rather go even lower in many places.

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