Thursday Forecast

125 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
The latest storm system has behaved generally as expected, after being a little slow to get underway as there was a lot of dry air to overcome. But now the warm air has come in aloft with the cold hanging on at the surface, causing snow to turn to sleet and freezing rain. But the steady precipitation is gone and leaving in its wake just patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle, an overcast and areas of fog. But during the course of the day today, low pressure will get northeast of the region and a drying westerly wind will take over, clearing it out and warming it up somewhat. This is not the entrance of a warm air mass, just air warmer than the cold trapped at the ground now. It’ll end up seasonably chilly tonight and Friday as high pressure moves in. This high will retreat Saturday and open the door for the next storm system, a familiar Great Lakes Cutter, on Sunday, which may start as snow/mix briefly Saturday night in some areas with lingering cold, but will end up rain for all as milder air wins out at all levels. Behind this system, drier and colder air will return but the wind may be the bigger story for Monday as the storm will be quite large in eastern Canada as it departs and we’ll have a strong gradient against approaching high pressure from the west.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle to start, then clearing. Highs 45-52 occurring late in the day. Wind light variable early, then W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of rain by late night, may start as snow some areas. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering to rain showers later. Temperatures steady in the 40s daytime, falling to the 30s evening.
MONDAY: Sun/clouds. Windy. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Dry and cold February 26. Will watch the period February 27-March 2 for the potential of 2 storm systems impacting the region. Too early for details but the first is likely to be minor and include rain and/or snow showers. The second has the potential to be a more significant system with rain/ice/snow possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)
Similar pattern, will watch for one or 2 possible storm threats. Also have to watch some very cold air to the north for a possible southward push.

125 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Be careful out there this morning everyone. I have already slipped and fell on what looked to be just a wet covered patio.

      1. Yes, thankfully just a scrape on my knee but it can be very deceiving this morning, so proceed with caution ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. ๐Ÿ™‚

      Did you watch the Elvis tribute Sunday night. It was tons of fun. Darius Rucker was my favorite….well, after Mac Davis of course. Mac Davis turned 77 last month….goes right along with my 7s. One performance IMO was completely uncalled for. The rest were all quite good.

  7. Good morning…Thank you TK

    Stayed Below freezing the entire event, even below freezing all the way into
    the office this morning.

    Measured 1.5 inch total at my house in JP. I figure “about” 1.3 in snow/sleet
    and anther 0.2 in ice accretion. I do not have my spreadsheet with me, but I do
    believe this puts me at exactly 20 inches on the season for JP. Certainly well below normal, but not as abysmal as the season seemed. ๐Ÿ˜€

  13. Thanks TK
    Saw Logan got 2.1 inches of snowfall. Can we now say this will not be the least snowiest winter on record with 2.1 inches that fell?

    1. Is this one time Logan did better than me? OR by the time I measured
      this AM, what snow that did fall compacted by .5-.6 inch???? Oh well, I can live with it. ๐Ÿ˜€

      I only could measure 1.5 inch, not matter where I measured and how many
      times I measured.

      1. Snow in Back Bay is compacted, too. About a 1.5 inch measurement. But, I think that you can add a half inch due to the fact that it has compacted.

    2. Yes, we can.

      So much for the talk – I’m guilty, mea culpa – about a possible record minimum of aggregate snowfall.

      Looking ahead it looks like there will be more snow. Not saying it’ll be a lot. But, the outlook looks promising for snow threats and a fairly sustained period of cold.

    1. They are getting hammered in the mountains 50 miles from the Strip.
      BTW, it is NOT unusual for it to Snow in Las Vegas. It happens virtually
      every Winter. One trip to Vegas, it had snowed 3 inches earlier in the day, but
      it all melted on the strip by the time we arrived. Very visible at elevation
      on all of the surrounding mountains and higher areas above about 5,000 feet.

      https://www.leecanyonlv.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain

  15. I believe that in the last 48 hours snow has fallen in at least 36 states. I may be wrong about this. But, this is what I read early this morning. I can’t recall where I saw this factoid.

    1. Sounds excellent. I shall do so and I’ll update the spreadsheet this afternoon
      when I am at home. I think that will bring me to 20.5 inches on the season.

      1. I agree, but following up on what WxWatcher was saying yesterday, the fact that all of these models are now showing
        something major on and off from run to run, means
        that perhaps something may happen in the next 2 weeks.

        Time will tell. At leas there is a little more hope (for us snow lovers anyway)

    1. Totally anomalous for this winter. Donโ€™t buy it until itโ€™s on our doorstep. Want to keep you in good health OS!

  20. It will be interesting to see IF the Euro has anything remotely resembling a storm
    either around 2/28 OR 3/2 or both. Ha ha ha ha…….

  21. Thanks TK.

    Well even Logan beat me on this storm! Only 0.8″ of snow/sleet in Coventry, CT and then a lot of ice on top. Sitting at 22″ on the year now.

    Everything was ensconced in ice this AM and the kids had a two hour delay. Mostly sunny and mild now though with a lot of melting going on.

    Regarding the next few weeks, all I’ll say is that patterns don’t last forever. There are some signs that this one may finally be relaxing. Things sure are looking more favorable for some cold/snow chances beginning middle of next week through at least the first full week of March. It’s going to be fun and frustrating at the same time watching the storms come and go on the models. But I do think our biggest snow eevnt of the season is yet to come.

  23. Today’s ECMWF MJO Forecast:

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

    We are solidly in snow phases now through the next couple weeks as we progress from Phase 8 through 1 and 2. GFS is basically the same though not as strong as the Euro is when it progresses through Phases 1 and 2.

    The PNA, which has consistently been a thorn in our side this month, is also forecast to trend more neutral as we head towards March 1. This should be helpful in lessening the likelihood that storms will cut to our west as we head into early March (if this were to verify).

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

    EPO forecast to be negative is helpful as well getting the cold air “dump” into the northern US:

    https://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/epo.html

    Still can’t get the NAO to cooperate but we’ll take what we can get. I’m cautiously optimistic we get a few snow events in here the next couple weeks.

      1. Hey, it’s got the coastal storm on 3/2 and a nice trough set up over the east. For this lead time? Looks good to me. We are not going to see a bomb every run.

  25. It was two weeks today that we lost my sister in law. TK said I could share two things with the group. I was waiting until we didn’t have snow on the doorstep so I didn’t distract.

    One is a letter of thanks from Pan Am thanking Jenny for volunteering to be part of the crew to head into Iran to bring the hostages home – something that didn’t materialize. The second is Jenny’s account of being in Tehran the night that the crisis began.

    https://imgur.com/a/egkZdTo

    https://i.imgur.com/vMFiPMI.jpg

  27. In the will see category. Tweets from Meteorologist John Homenuk
    All guidance agrees that a very anomalous ridge will develop toward the Beaufort Sea into the Arctic next week. The change in momentum throughout the hemisphere allows the TPV to elongate over SE Canada. Such a configuration will open the window for winter storms in the East..

    Obviously at this range there is still lots of uncertainty as to how things evolve. Nothing is guaranteed. However, ensemble guidance provides a bit of a boost in confidence on the overall configuration, which in the past has led to cold and wintry conditions.

  31. 1. 1936-37 = 9.0โ€
    2. 2011-12 = 9.3โ€
    3. 1972-73 = 10.3โ€
    4. 2018-19 = 10.5โ€**
    5. 1994-95 = 14.9โ€

    ** to date

  32. That early March period has “the look”. It’s obviously far too early for surface details, and I’d say about 2-3 days early for me to feel comfortable with what the big picture upper air evolution will be. Still getting pretty significant run-to-run variations, and we certainly can’t expect to get surface details right until we have a stable upper level projection. But we may have busy times ahead. For the first time since probably early-mid December, we may actually see a pattern capable of supporting a major coastal storm.

    2. Agree, and despite Dave’s dismay, I think the setup for days 5-10 and beyond on that 12z Euro run looked pretty good.

      1. Yeah, I know. Just saying…when it rains, it pours so to speak.
        Euro is just kicking us when we’re down.

    1. Been concerned with this period for several days now. Don’t remember when I first brought it up… Last week sometime?

      1. I believe it was last week – right after we made plans to attend a brunch for Mac’s cousin’s husband’s mom’s 100th birthday on March 2. (See if you can follow that thread ๐Ÿ˜‰ )

        1. Good heavens – that doesn’t stop skiers either…..just old people like me. Or perhaps people with young children in the car …. know anyone who fits that category ๐Ÿ˜‰

        2. If I’m going skiing and there is a snow storm darn right I would still go. Nothing like fresh snow each run, plus usually not many snowboarders.. Especially in vermont if there is a snow storm they try and keep open rooms just for the occassions that people can not get home.

          1. I was teasing Coastal. I would have when I had no kids in the car and did many times. I would not with kids in car and I would not as an elder. One elder accident and everyone decides it is because of age and old people should not be allowed to drive.

  38. Found it…
    One week ago today.
    Still dangling at the end of that rope I guess. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Woods Hill Weather says:
    February 14, 2019 at 3:16 PM

    Updated thoughtsโ€ฆ
    No big changes really. Impossible to do given the magnitude of confidence from high in the short term to low in the medium term. That said, I still lean toward a pretty definite miss Saturday, a miss or a graze Sunday night / early Monday, and a hit later Wednesday. I think some of the guidance may actually be overplaying the warming on that one. Watch for adjustments by guidance in both streams that could actually put us in a better position for a light or moderate snow event (not major) later Wednesday to early Thursday of next week. Yes, I know itโ€™s out on a limb in a bad guidance time. Believe me I donโ€™t need to be reminded. And since Iโ€™m out on that limb yet again Iโ€™ll dangle a rope from it and say I have a hunch we get a broad Pacific storm around February 24 and looking way out I have a funny feeling about the weekend of March 2-3. And now I shall slide careful down that rope so as to avoid a burn and plant my feet safely back on the surface of the earth here and start looking at the more confident short term forecast for the next few days.

      2. Oh I did. I just couldn’t remember which day it had been posted. I was thinking Friday but I was off by 1 day. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  39. Let’s hope that March lion is roaring and were talking about a snoworama at the beginning of the month and not a sloporama or rainorama.

  44. NWS out of Norton already highlighting in the hazardous weather outlook the rain for Sunday and the wind potential for Monday. If flying could be some turbulence in the northeast on Monday if that wind potential pans out.

  47. Such sad news about Nick Cafardo. I didn’t know until I saw JPDave mention it on this blog. 62 is way too young. Didn’t know him but read his Globe pieces. I liked his low-key presence and demeanor. He knew his baseball. A friendly face. He’ll be missed.

    I’m dismayed that when I tuned in sports radio (WEEI) 15 minutes ago they were cracking jokes about playoff hockey, of all things. They’re down there at spring training. One would think that there would be a more subdued atmosphere. Decorum these days is really missing.

    2. Well said Joshua. Very sad for him and his family. Really makes you think not to take things for granted and try to live life to the absolute fullest.

  49. SSK, you’re right to remind us and EF that last March was cold and stormy, March 2017 was cold and rather stormy, first 10 days of April 2016 were snowy and very cold, and March 2015 was very cold (not so stormy). It’s certainly not unusual for winter to go out roaring.

    Last week I was beginning to think winter would depart without a proper goodbye. Well, I was very wrong it would appear. We’ve already been reminded this week that winter hasn’t yet said goodbye. And if the models verify, prior to bidding us adieu, winter may just kick us in the pants.

    1. I looked back to beginning of last March on whw and saw day temps in 30s and 40s ….I thought that was average for March. Maybe not

      1. First week of March 2018 was indeed in the normal range. The first of 4 nor’easters was an all-rain event at the coast. But then a very cold period ensued with several snowstorms. March 2018 was considerably colder than February 2018. March 2017 was cold, too, especially in the middle of the month (January cold, I remember it well; the snow and ice stuck around for quite some time).

        1. Thanks Joshua last March was tough & no power for days twice in my house . Oh & when ch 5 was interviewing me in my house & I told everybody to watch โ€”โ€” I got cut lol . Oh yes I remember March & I made a lot of money from March .

  50. Vicki if I remember correctly you like the golf Fred Couples. Monday night at 9pm on the Golf Channel David Feherty is going to interview Fred Couples.

  51. Your welcome Vicki. When I saw the commercial ad for it watching the Golf Channel today I said I have to post on the blog so Vicki knows about it. I believe it is a two part interview with the first airing Monday at 9pm.

    1. Now that warms my heart. Thank you. It is two part. I am sure they will give date and time for second part at the end

  53. Funny how Flagstaff was brought up on the blog recently, and today they set a record for the most snow in one calendar day at 36 inches. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. It seems that the entire world has had prolific snow except Boston. Maybe we get it within the next two weeks?

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