Monday Forecast

165 Comments

6:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
The first day of March has made it into the first blog forecast period! That means spring’s coming right? Well yes, spring’s coming, but not soon. If you have lived in New England for any amount of time beyond a year or two, you’ll out yourself in short order that March is not a spring month more than it is a winter month. But I’m getting way ahead of myself, we still have 4 days left in February, and those won’t be anything like spring either. First, it’s high wind Monday, the event we’ve now talked about for a few days leading up to today, and it will deliver in the form of powerful gusts of wind during a day of sustained moderate to occasionally strong westerly winds. The peak wind will occur in the 12 hour period from about 7AM to about 7PM, but don’t go exactly by the clock, as some areas have already been seeing decent wind gusts, and they will also continue to occur right through tonight and even into Tuesday, only gradually subsiding. It goes without saying that in the aging forest we live in, tree damage and resultant power outages and property damage are possible. The cause of the wind is the pressure gradient between large sized and powerful low pressure in eastern Canada and elongated high pressure from central Canada into the upper Midwest. With these large features moving only slowly eastward, it makes for an extended period of wind. I should also mention that as these winds ramp up this morning, a few snow showers have made it into the region, and though localized and not lasting too long, they could briefly cause reduced visibility where they do occur, so if traveling be on the look out for these this morning. A decent shot of cold air will also be coming in with this wind event and it will be quite cold by tonight right through Wednesday. After dry weather Tuesday and most of Wednesday, a clipper low pressure system will dive across the Great Lakes and across southern New England Wednesday night and early Thursday. This should be a minor snow event for most, but just enough mild air may be drawn into the southern portion of the system for a South Coast mix, so snow amounts could be a little less there. More dry, chilly air follows later Thursday and a small disturbance coming along on Friday may deliver a few rain/snow showers as March arrives.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow showers this morning may briefly reduce visibility and cause localized coatings of snow that will melt and dry after. Highs 30-37. Wind W 15-35 MPH with gusts 45-65 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind W 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH, diminishing slightly overnight.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Accumulating snow probable at night. Highs 25-32. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy morning with snow and possible South Coast mix early. Partly sunny afternoon. Temperature rise into the 30s then steady.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain/snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)
Low pressure likely to track through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada during the March 2-3 weekend bringing milder air and a risk of rain showers Saturday, windy and colder weather with a risk of snow showers Sunday. Upper disturbance brings cloudiness and a risk of a few snow flurries March 4 followed by dry and chilly weather March 5. Next system threatens with a chance of snow/mix by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)
The weather pattern allows colder air to dominate and a risk of 1 or 2 mix/snow events during this period.

165 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. The amount of snow up in the North Conway area is pretty remarkable, though I don’t have much history to compare it to up there. Driving north on 16 starting in Ossipee the snow pack really started to ramp up. The snow is up to the speed signs on the upper part of west side road and to the roof of my truck in my neighborhood. The snow piles are so high you can barely see Attitash from the road. I’m guessing if they have another big snow producer up there they will have to some serious steps to move the snow they have along the road, just no place to put it.

    This snow pack has me concerned with spring flooding. I’m sure we will be reading about ice dams and flooding in the months to come.

      1. Up there? Both. The first half of March will probably be slightly colder than average overall up there with at least a couple snow events. After that, it looks like more Southeast ridge, and more trough out West, which would be a milder pattern. Not sure about rain yet but given the time of year I’d expect several rain and/or snow events up there for the balance of the March.

  4. I’ve already had people on social media asking me what happened to the big wind event today. Given that it wasn’t even 6:30AM, my advice to anybody who thinks the wind forecast is a bust may want to wait for the event to actually occur before verifying the forecast for it. šŸ™‚

    1. I will confess I was expecting the big winds overnight as well, even to the point of being awoken in the middle of the night by them. I canā€™t speak for others but the tv mets at 6 left me the impression that the winds would be arriving shortly during the evening. Maybe I totally misunderstood along with the others. šŸ™‚

  6. Moderate snow showers/squalls just north and south of me. I’m in between with a lighter snow shower at the moment here in Woburn. I’m about to relocate to Reading. I don’t think these snow showers will be around too long.

  7. Good morning and thank you, TK

    Steady wind train running through the neighborhood. I sure do enjoy the sound.

  8. Thanks TK. Probably could have used those snow squall warnings this morning. Almost a white out in Sterling.

  9. Thanks TK.

    The synoptic snow events have been lacking, but it’s turned into a good winter for squall enthusiasts.

    1. i find them fascinating and at times some of the heaviest snows of the seasons. The last event I saw the heaviest snow falling all season within a half hour period

  10. Thanks TK.

    Snowing pretty good here in Coventry CT and windy. Visibility down and roads are covered. 28 degrees

  11. 00z Euro now finally on board with the Wed night system delivering a light to borderline moderate snow event.

    Regarding the weekend system, stark contrast between the 6z GFS which advertises a strong cutter and the Euro/CMC which have a weak system traveling through the Great Lakes and a developing coastal storm to our southeast. Euro is a grazer while the CMC delivers interior accumulating snow.

    Both models also deliver a coastal storm with accumulating snow for next Tuesday. Gfs keeps it out to sea.

    Perhaps some interesting times ahead.

  12. Wind gust to 144 atop Mt Washington this am. Projected to go as high as 165 later today. Biggest wind storm in over a decade for them.

  13. I have to say that what may happen the next 2 weeks is what drives me nuts about New England winter (at least as I get older)

    Winter starts for me the first Sunday of November, when DST ends and its dark at 5pm. Dark at 5pm is winter.

    So now, 3 months and 3 weeks later since that early November weekend, actual winter weather decides to arrive, which continues the season in a different way.

    Too long of a season ……..

  14. The Wednesday night event does not look too impressive dynamically. Weak lift and poor moisture. There’s better moisture not far to the south though, so it does need to be watched. It’s a more challenging forecast than some of the fairly consistent operational guidance is making it seem. If it’s a pure split flow scenario, then amounts will probably be very light. If we work in some better moisture, then there’s a risk of higher totals and a solid moderate event. Lots of spread in the SREF plumes, with the majority favoring light totals but a cluster that is significantly higher.

  15. Getting ahead of ourselves, but what are your thoughts on the Euro
    coastal system for next week? I have now seen it on 2 successive runs, which
    just hasn’t been happening. thanks

    1. If thatā€™s for me, I generally prefer the GFS over the Euro for the next 10 days, but confidence drops dramatically by the weekend. Weā€™re still in a pattern where models arenā€™t much good beyond days 3-4. Really, persistence has greatly outperformed the models beyond about day 4 for much of the winter. In other words, more than a few days out, youā€™d be far more accurate saying ā€œexpect more of the sameā€ versus buying into any big changes shown by the models.

      1. Yes, and thanks.

        I am just encouraged to see it on successive runs.
        Now IF it’s still there with the Euro 12Z run, then Perhaps, just perhaps, something is up. We shall see.

        Could mean that the Euro was confused for all 3 runs. šŸ™‚

  16. Just occurred to me to make dinner now just in case. Unforunately, it will probably jinx us and we won’t have a power outage.

  18. The impression I got from the TV people was that the wind would increase overnight which it did. They were correct. this speaks to my point about people expecting an event to be constant peak from start to finish.

    I was experiencing wind gust around 40 miles per hour overnight which was about what was expected for my area.

    1. I can say the same…not about wind speed as we are expecting lower – but about arrival. We are gusting now into the mid 20s. I was not positive my anemometer is correct but it is in line with neighboring stations so suspect it is close enough.

  20. Thanks, TK.

    I listen to Worcester weather radio, 162.55 a lot. They said gusts could reach 70 mph today. Is that possible and in what likely areas?

    1. Anytime I hear someone say ā€œbig kahunaā€ I think of that scene in Pulp Fiction where Jules eats the Big Kahuna burger.

  26. If a 70 MPH gust occurs, look for it in an open, elevated area such as Worcester Airport or the top of Blue Hill.

  27. Iā€™m one of those 19k for national grid here in Sturbridge. Had a pine tree snap in 1/2 about 500 feet down the street from my house, took down wires. Iā€™m used to it though, I live in a heavy wooded area. Just hoping they miss the house when they fall. The wind is vicious, getting constant gusts around 45 mph+

    1. Looks like itā€™s up to 21k now. Hoping the same for you and for me (thereā€™s a giant old tree near the house we need to have trimmed or cut down this year.)

    2. Wow – nothing that high in this area yet. I saw up to high 20s only and not regularly. I don’t have trees near the house but am concerned with the deck heater which is tall. Our wires are underground but that doesn’t matter a whole lot of the source goes.

  28. I am monitoring the scanner and reports are starting to come in. Plympton is hardest hit right now with Rt. 106 closed because of downed wires and poles. Also, they are dealing with a tree on a home.

  30. The 12z GFS caves to the CMC/Euro for the weekend system as Go For Snow indicated. No more cutter.

    Now has a weak system passing through Friday with rain/snow showers and the somewhat larger system over the weekend now passes to our south with coastal rain and interior snow.

    CMC has the Friday system missing us to the south and now just a frontal passage over the weekend.

    Still time to resolve that but it would appear a big cutter is off the table for the weekend.

    The best setup right now for something more sizable still looks to be around next Tuesday of next week. But still plenty of time for something to go wrong with that one!

    Will see what the 12z Euro has to say….

      1. I wouldn’t worry Tom, looks like the snow is over earlier in the AM and based on what I am seeing on the other models the Euro is WAY overdone with the snow totals, as usual.

        1. Thanks Mark !

          I’ve been encouraging her to look into changing to Wednesday, based on 1-3 or something like that. Those EURO numbers threw me for a loop.

          Tom

          1. LOL …. I just finished writing a lot of school emails and of course end with my name down the bottom of those emails and just realized I did the same thing with that post. Time for April vacation ……..

  36. Some fairly major roads in Framingham closed with trees down. One over toward Sudbury, rainshine. Edgell has a tree down with wires across entire street by the Framingham animal hospital.

    I’m not seeing many power outages in Sutton….and no one is mentioning them on the Sutton FB page. But a fair amount around…including Sturbridge, SC, as I suspect you know.

  37. Thatā€™s for sure Vicki Lol. Iā€™m on generator right now. Unfortunately no WiFi. I have very limited cell service at my house, Iā€™m in kind of in a dead area. Just enough for texts and maybe a brief call,enough to pull up WHW. No biggie, it works out to my advantage as I have the day off from work and can use this excuse for the time being, to not have to do some house chores. šŸ™‚

  40. Half of the shoppes at Blackstone in Millbury are closed due to power outage from Target to Marhsalls. Target is apparently open using generator power.

  41. I’m back in Woburn now. We did take a brief power hit here but have it back now.

    I had a short local errand but had to pick my son up from work on the way and cutting down one of our main roads toward the center of the city, a large portion of an old tree let go and landed on the road I’d have been occupying less than a half minute from when it landed. Thankfully there was nobody in front of me and it fell between 2 passing cars on the other side with no casualties. I stopped for photos just as the police arrived (they were close by). Immediately the road was closed and I left in the direction I came from. šŸ˜‰

    Here’s a quick photo of what’s left of the tree after it landed. https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/52653745_10157102139912265_435327654510460928_o.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_eui2=AeG4-X_VWTrJiLxC6g7UCQ1rF6MhuTAIPVFfSpy2uMWaB2hTvZMael8_4ZYq6uRcVg4TAVQWa51BFTWd_diMDYpAlGPJmTyqVwJCIEr77YnnOQ&_nc_ht=scontent.fbed1-1.fna&oh=776c8cd7c4d6ba147a16a831bd4cf2ea&oe=5D1DD6E9

  43. Boston Rd in Sutton – This is the third or fourth of a row of lovely tall pine trees along the perimeter of an older Sutton home that has come down this year. It’s just down from the school and I’m very happy a bus or car was not there at the time. I can’t tell if this is one or two trees.

    https://imgur.com/XXF6sah

    1. No way my anemometer is accurate. The wind is the strongest and most sustained right now and it hasn’t gone above 22 in quite a while….unless the thing blew off the swing set šŸ˜‰

        1. Curious. Thank, JPD. Mine is not protected so perhaps it is accurate. Except the winds this afternoon have been stronger than the ones in the morning and it registered lower

  44. Models are an absolute mess beyond day 3 today. Toss. Reassess next few runs. They are all pretty much at some level of cluelessness. Bad timing. Bad wave amplification. Just, bad.

      1. Oh don’t worry. I am still concerned about that period in March for snow. I just don’t like the way the models are behaving today. šŸ™‚

  46. Thanks TK! We only had a few of our bank branches lose power today which is a good thing. Not bad consider the amount we have and the footprint we cover.

  48. NWS has a general 2-4 inch snowfall for all of SNE Wednesday night & Thursday. Depending on the set-up upon departure of that system, there may be a band that persist over part of eastern MA that if those accumulations are realized can take somebody over the 4 inch mark. But for now I’m comfortable with that range. It will be very cold, so there should be some fluff factor here. Ratios may be in the 15:1 or even 20:1 neighborhood.

    1. Pete mentioned fluff factor as well. I get the impression that if temps were marginal (near 32) maybe an inch at most?

      1. If I understood Harvey correctly, the dry air will actually enhance the snow, which doesnā€™t make sense to me. Maybe I totally misinterpreted him?

  51. I have an old birch Iā€™m worried about. Itā€™s probably 18ā€ across. Rare to see them that big. Theyā€™re so soft, they tend to get beat down long before they reach this age and this exposed.

  52. Wind has been impressive. I do love the feel. Something about cold wind that makes me happy. Running into the wind was a challenge. It’s as if you’re running in place. Hard to move forward.

    The drawback of all this wind has been reported on this blog- from power outages to property damage to roads being closed.

    Mark, the summit conditions on Mt. Washington also made me smile. Looks like they had a gust over 160mph with temps hovering around 0F. Probably felt like Pluto.

  53. A few selected locations and their peak wind gusts as of 6PM Monday…

    Mount Washington NH: 162 MPH
    Blue Hill Observatory, Milton MA: 70 MPH
    Worcester Airport, Worcester MA: 64 MPH
    Logan Airport, Boston MA: 58 MPH

  54. Lots of pine branches down in my yard and one small birch fell down towards the back and just missed the swingset. Lots of limbs and some trees down across town (Natick).

  55. Power out here and most of Taunton West. Large
    tree fell across Rt. 140 near the Taunton-Norton line.
    Power has been out about an hour. Winds are
    as strong now as they have been all day!

  57. Latest obs from Mt Washington as of 6:55PM:

    NW Wind SUSTAINED at 140 mph and gusting to 168 mph.
    Peak wind gust for the day now at 171 MPH!
    Temp -8F
    Wind chill -55F

    1. Mendon 67. About 10 miles from here. I didnā€™t think the Anemometer was working. No wonder the trampoline moved five feet

      1. Yikes. The closest report to me is Storrs and they clocked a gust to 60mph. Only some branches down in my yard fortunately.

  61. MWObservatoryā€ @MWObs

    Current peak wind is 171mph! Surpassing the previous February wind record (166 MPH set in 1972). #NHwx #wind #mountain

    1. Ryan Knappā€ @WXKnapper

      Went out to de-ice (protected slightly by parapet walls). That. Was. Terrifying.

  64. If Boston gets another 1-2 inch `dumping’ Wednesday night that will continue the theme of this winter – puny amounts of snow that ultimately in aggregate surpass the least snowy totals of 2011-2012 and 1936-1937. But, they’re still minuscule amounts.

    Remember last week when one of the models went crazy and produced an all-out blizzard in Boston. This is why I’m very skeptical about the model projections for next Tuesday.

    1. You are right to be skeptical but with the setup next week and cold air in place, it should at least put us in play for a coastal system. The threat with that one is going to be suppression.

    1. And it’s not even Halloween … Yes, I’m thinking positive thoughts. Hope there is no power outage in Sutton.

      1. Hoping for an outage for you also then. Enjoy

        In all seriousness. Iā€™m seeing people upset because they have been out of power for a few hours. It might be better served to think of the men and women who are on th poles and in the field.

        1. Wait, I’m confused. I thought you wanted positive thoughts to not have a power outage? Now I’m reading above you like power outages? I need power because I have a machine I need to sleep at night. I don’t want the power off. lol

  66. 1. 1936-37 = 9.0ā€
    2. 2011-12 = 9.3ā€
    3. 1972-73 = 10.3ā€
    4. 2018-19 = 10.5ā€** (to date)
    5. 1994-95 = 14.9ā€

  70. 00z Euro with 4 snow events in the next 10 days.

    Delivers a region wide 4-5″ Wed night then follows it up with coastal storms Saturday, Monday and Wednesday. All three of those of grazers with light to moderate snow accumulation as the storm tracks are just a bit too far offshore.

    If the models are correct, there is a lot of potential on the table the next 10+ days if you like winter….

    1. Yes the models are correct. Just like the ECMWF was correct with its 36ā€ in 12 hours for 2/27 / 28. It might get a 3 out of this and it will be fast mover for most areas. So it was pretty close….

      This is one of the most complexly useless periods I can remember for our mid range model. It is a modelologistsā€™ nightmare.

      I kind of like it….

      1. You and TK have managed to handle it quite well. Kudos to you both.

        I just want one decent snow event before the season ends.

        Can you guys see what you can do?

        Thanks.

      2. It’s a bit of a guilty pleasure for me too. šŸ˜‰ My FB messenger lights up with messages containing the Euro snowfall maps all too often which are met by my “hearty laugh with tears” emoji. šŸ˜‰

  71. good morning..

    Rather eventful the last couple of days…

    Started the night before the storm when my son went through a pot hole and blew out 2 tires. The car was towed to a service station in Brookline where a tree fell
    on 3 cars, the last of which was my sons so he only got hit with the top branches.
    Only repair he needs is a new windshield.

    Here at the home front, one of our down spouts was blown over and one of our storm doors was ripped right from the door frame and totally trashed.

    Final insult…I put the trash out, including a large recycle bin that was full. Not for long, the wind picked it up and blew it 70 feet down our street in the opposite direction of the wind. Recycle goodies all over the street.

    Well, at least we did not lose power.

    I’d say the wind lived up to the hype this time. In other words there was no hype.

      1. They did over and over in 2015. šŸ˜‰
        Any hyping of a snow event this season is not a smart thing to do in most cases. šŸ˜‰

    2. I still found people in various places on the net yesterday saying the forecasts were wrong and “what wind event?” … I don’t get it.

      1. Come look at my yard and driveway. I have virtual forest of pine branches on the ground from this non-event….

      1. Not only thar but its part of the collage I posted last night. It’s like jpd doesn’t even read comments anymore!

  73. I think a general 2-4 for the short term event. But so little moisture with this one and lots of dry air to overcome early along with its progressive nature and lack of lift
    it is going to rely almost solely on high ratios while simultaneously fighting its precipitation shield being eroded by dry air eating at it from the west. Of course just a little enhancement or elongation of the departing precipitation shield could create a few more robust totals. Of course with so little moisture to work an almost impossible to forecast 0.1 reduction in moisture could cut in half the anticipated snow totals.

  74. Quite the windstorm! Still no power here, national grid website says tomorrow noon for my street. It could be worse, I could have recyclables all over the place! Sorry JP Dave.

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