Friday Forecast

104 Comments

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
Beware the Ides of March! Why? Because they might fool you into thinking it’s April with the mild air that will be in place, reaching or exceeding 60 in some places. But the usual exceptions will be there, especially the South Coast and Cape Cod, where 40s to middle 50s will do it thanks to a wind off the chilly ocean water. Portions of the eastern coastal areas will also be cooler with a wind partially off the water at times, especially in locations that jut out from the general coastline slightly. The other price to pay for the mild southerly flow today will be rain showers at times, ahead of a cold front, but it won’t be a rainy day by any stretch. We will see the shower activity tend to favor southeastern MA with time, where it will also linger longer, well into this evening. Finally, a cold front will rid the region of not only showers but mild air, replacing it will a more seasonable March chill, a little bit Saturday, and a little bit more Sunday. The trade-off will be that the least chilly day on Saturday will also be the windier of the 2, with considerably less wind Sunday. The chilly air will continue into early next week and the current indications are the disturbance that was on the watch list for Monday will pass just south of the region, keeping the weather dry for the balance of the period. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 42-49 South Coast, 50-57 immediate East Coast and just inland from the South Coast, 58-65 interior from central MA to Merrimack Valley to southwestern and south central NH. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts toward morning.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)
And just like that, winter’s officially over, at least by the calendar, as the Vernal Equinox occurs March 20. I can, with moderate confidence, declare that the storm threat is a little less during the first few days of this period with no phasing of northern and southern jet stream energy likely, resulting in just a cold frontal passage early March 21 to make the first full day of spring feel a little more like winter, but other than a passing rain or snow shower that day it looks generally dry through March 23, with a rain threat becoming possible by the end of the period. As mentioned yesterday, this drier overall pattern in the next 10 days is favorable for reducing the flood threat on rivers due to melting snow in areas to the north that have a much heavier snow pack.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)
The latter days of March 2019 look like they will transition toward a traditional spring-like pattern. After some fair and cooler weather to start the period we’ll need to watch for a slower-moving, strung out storm system to bring some unsettled weather.

104 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. It’s kind of ironic that some of the cooler areas today will have the best chance of thunderstorms later. Why? Because that action will be going on ABOVE the surface chill. It will be interesting to how it unfolds. Nothing severe coming. Just some convection. Already occurring in southern VT as we speak. This energy, in part, translates to that area later, or more accurately, the location of the lifting mechanism will shift there.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Noticed more sunshine this morning than expected. I am sure it was short lived, but
    wondering if high temperatures might over achieve today???? 🙂

  6. Maybe my expectations are high, but it doesn’t feel as warm to me as it should based on current and projected temps. I have my usual winter coat and felt surprisingly comfortable and not sweating in the least.

  8. I felt just the opposite. I had my usual light weight jacket and actually felt warm.
    It was/is a BEAUTIFUL morning!!!

    1. We had no jackets on working out in the field at 3:30 this morning . I had a ski cap on but needed to take it off .

  11. Thank you, TK.

    As for the official end of snow….winter will end no matter what we do….we set all kinds of records in mid-March 2012 and then had a minor (I believe – TK please correct if it was more than minor) event at the very end of the month. It’s new england and what I love most about it.

  12. Thanks TK
    Looking at this early stage no weather issues preventing from going to Hartford for the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament next Thursday and Saturday. This is the first time I am going to the tournament in 23 years when the Final Four and National Championship was in NJ. March Madness is my second favorite on the sporting calendar behind the NFL playoffs.

  16. Thanks, TK.

    There is a special weather statement that strong thunderstorms moving northeast in a line from Brookfield to Plainfield. Moving 70 mph.? They say.

  21. The snow may be melting here, but as of this morning Mount Snow, Okemo, and Killing were all 100% open with deep snow bases.

    Snow base at Jay Peak this AM was 35-55″, the deepest of the season and deepest in years.

    Barring a complete torch in the next 4 weeks, should be some great spring skiing this year through mid April.

        1. I’ll agree with Matt. I was never a fan of Wildcat….my dad and his friends were not either. They always thought it faced the wrong way. It does get icy. But that was years ago. Maybe it moved 🙂

      2. I have not spring skied at Wildcat however if temps are near or above freezing, the snow is really going to soften up in the Spring with the higher sun angle. That’s pretty much regardless of where you are in NNE. I would think late March/April would be the least icy time of year to visit Wildcat.

    1. If it wasn’t for this brief warm spell, much of that snow would still be on the ground. Amazing it lasted so long as it did given the late part of winter that it fell.

  25. Enjoy these 60’s today! Not really seeing much sustained warmth on the extended GFS or Euro. Cool next week and then we are set up near a boundary between mild/cold the last week of March which looks to set several precipitation threats, a few maybe with some frozen involved.

    1. Today is a Robert Frost spring tease. Frost’s descriptions of New England scenery and weather always resonated with me.

    2. Don’t really see it that way Mark. I know you want one last winter weather run…

      What I see is changeable temps with a cool down Saturday – Tuesday before a gradual warm up again and then another cool down before more perhaps a more sustained turn to warmth. Overall precip less than normal and temps about normal because of the intermittent below and above periods.

      If you look at the 00 today the EPS has an average of 0.2 of precip over SNE in the next 15 days. My thought process – persistence and known teleconnections and how those teleconnections lead to sensible weather outcomes during the 2nd half of March. It will serve me far better.

      Just not a pattern to deliver what you want. Sorry my friend.

  26. I got my one snowstorm earlier this month so I am happy. All I wanted was just one storm without any ice and it happened. If BDL doesn’t get anymore snow my prediction of 40.1 inches will happen. I wonder if anyone in the years we have been guessing has gotten there predicted snowfall total for a location exactly right.

    1. We can certainly get a bit more snow but it will be short lived and most likely not significant.

      I was figuring 36-40 in Boston and more like 40-42 at BDL. Got closer than I thought and the November storm kind of cheated us there because it all disappeared for a vacant December and my thoughts on how we achieved these totals were a bit off. Yes, a lot of small frequent events, but it should have been colder and drier.

      1. We had a solid foot for the lowest amount on our deck yesterday. It does not get sun until after 5:00. Snow was gone by noon. It sure does melt fast.

  28. I think we get through the “vulnerable period” without really anything happening. Looks more dry and “cool” than anything else. After that, it will take a short-lived, renegade anomalous set-up (probably a surprise) to do anything regarding late season snow. Otherwise, it’s wrapping up. I’m content with not reaching my forecast amount for Logan. It ends up not that far off either way. I generally agree with the recent ideas expressed by WxW & JMA. No reason to dispute any of it.

  29. Impressive lightning strikes crossing across Narragansett Bay in the SE Massachusetts. Had a couple of lightning and thunder boomers in the last five minutes here.

      1. Storm zipping along!
        Happy Weekend, Tom!
        Longest week of the school year thus far! I’m pooped tonight!
        MCAS infrastructure test this morning.

    2. Oh darn. Not here. But I’m on deck too. And will be out again much later if it stays dry

  30. Thanks JMA for the comments….I was definitely not expecting any big winter weather events on the horizon. Primarily commenting that people should not expect that we are going into a period of constant spring warmth the second half of the month. I don’t see much in the way of 65 degree days like today on the models through the end of March. And while none looked like significant events, the 12z GFS verbatim showed 5 different systems between Monday and 3/31 that had the potential to bring at least some frozen precip into portions of southern and central New England. I think Logan and BDL will log at least one more inch of snow this year. We’ll see 🙂

  32. As it gets dark, round 2 approaches. Easier to see the flashes of lightning, hearing occasional thunder.

    1. 🙂 🙂

      I guess I wasn’t paying attention to the weather, didn’t know this evening was going to be this interesting weather-wise.

  38. Looking at the obs, there’s quite a windshift/convergence in New England along that line of rain/Tstorms.

  39. Wow looks like the middle of July out here!
    I have never seen a lightning show in March like this before!

  41. Torrential rain and non stop lightning and thunder in Manchester CT. Roads flooded in numerous locations

  42. Heard my first rumbles of thunder and saw my first flashes of lightning in 2019.
    I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms in a couple of months.

  45. Special Weather Statement….THIS JUST IN…
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    914 PM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

    Tolland CT-Windham CT-Southern Worcester MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
    Northern Worcester MA-
    914 PM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

    …THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL…

    At 913 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
    Tolland, or 7 miles northwest of Mansfield, moving northeast at 60
    mph.

    Pea size hail and heavy downpours will accompany this storm.
    Localized rainfall amounts up to 0.50 inch in less than one hour are
    likely.

    Locations impacted include…
    Worcester, Shrewsbury, Vernon, Mansfield, Grafton, Webster,
    Southbridge, Auburn, Burrillville, Northbridge, Ellington, Tolland,
    Oxford, Uxbridge, Millbury, Charlton, Coventry, Stafford, Spencer and
    Dudley.

    1. I’ve been driving around here in the manchester area…. lots of heavy rain and lightning but didn’t see or hear any hail.

  48. Were not seeing damaging wind gusts with these storms. Heavy rain vivid lightning and small hail the main threats with these storms which are moving quickly according to the special weather statements.

  49. Elevated convection developing over southeast New England as surface based convection moves in from the west. Really active day of storms today, mostly sub-severe but this is a pretty widespread event, certainly for this time of year.

  50. I remember the February 2016 night time severe weather event where there were a lot of wind damage reports across SNE that night. The lightning that night was some of the loudest I ever heard.

    1. yeah this is probably one of the more impressive thunderstorms I have seen for a while. Got some hail, and what a light show. The Thunder has been shaking the house

  55. We got quite a thunderstorm here in Sudbury around 10:15 or so. Very loud thunder and it poured. Didn’t look out window but didn’t see any lightning, ‘though I’m sure there was some. Storm moved pretty fast out of here. It just started to rain again, w/o thunder at this point, anyway. Would have loved to see this storm during the day.

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