Monday Forecast

92 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)
A pretty straightforward forecast for the Monday-Friday work week, which half way through sees the arrival of spring, the Vernal Equinox, on Wednesday. And that day may be the most spring-feeling one of the week, as it will feature a milder interlude between a chilly start and end to the period. We start with high pressure keeping a disturbance south of the region today, and high pressure dominating on Tuesday, with a chill in the air. A little milder air sneaks in as high pressure sinks to the south Wednesday, allowing a southwesterly fair flow to arrive. A cold front will cross the region Thursday, and I will have to add the risk of rain showers to the forecast, having previously thought this would be a dry system. Some guidance, which is known to be performing very poorly, is living in a fantasy land in trying to develop a storm system close enough for significant precipitation late this week, but in reality the evolution of that system will be much further offshore, and its intensification will help pull a second cold front into the region Friday, with a colder ending to the week. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the lower to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)
March 23-24 weekend looks dry but with a windy chill Saturday transitioning to a breezy but milder Sunday. Watching for a period of unsettled weather in the March 25-27 time frame as it trends cooler to colder with high pressure building across southeastern Canada and low pressure traveling near or south of New England.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Drier weather returns for much of this period with a slow moderating trend as high pressure gains control of the weather.

92 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Thanks to you and SAK for ordering seasonal weather for my birthday. I have wed and thursday scheduled off and will be going to a place that has a qbert arcade machine on wednesday because when I was a kid I excelled at that game to such a degree it would anger other kids when the YMCA that had it would have a tournament lol.

  4. that 6-10 day period ….. The GFS and EURO on their 00z runs look a bit similar this morning.

    Chilly high to the north, low pressure to the south ….

    One step forward, one mile backwards …….

  7. 12Z NAM is even getting interesting for 3/22.

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019031812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019031812&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    But 300 and 200 mb would suggest a pass off shore

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019031812&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=084

    https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019031812&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    1. Don’t have access to 850 mb temperatures, but the 1000-500mb thickness suggests the atmosphere “could” support snow. I guess it will depend upon
      the precipitation intensity. Surface temps look to be in the mid-upper 30s.

      1. Latest from NWS

        One fly in the ointment is the trend of some of the latest 00Z
        guidance to generate a secondary low over the southeast US coast that phases with this low, eventually tracking over southern New England during this same time period. Temperature profiles in both models currently indicate an inside runner/all rain situation, but likely much wetter than we`ve been thinking. The GFS-FV3 had been an outlier in showing evolution like this up until now, but other
        models are shifting toward it recently so something to keep an eye on as we approach.

        1. I guess this Winter season has really show the model weaknesses? eh? So you still think 3/22 remains dry?
          or at least most of the activity remains off shore?

          1. We get rain showers from the cold front. The bulk of if not all of the precipitation from whatever results from that inverted trough will be offshore.

          1. I’m not familiar enough with Wildcat to know when they put lifts on wind hold but I would highly doubt the winds would be strong enough to close the mountain. Perhaps a wind hold on the summit quad at worst.

  12. Pretty funny to see all the models trending towards the FV3 solution yesterday and today, showing a stronger coastal system closer to the coast Thursday/Friday. In the end it may not have been so out there after all.

    Even if the low still passes well off shore, it appears close enough now at a minimum to draw some additional moisture into the frontal passage and give us a period of steady precipitation. Unfortunately, there is not enough cold air to work with for this to be snow unless we were to get this storm to truly bomb out closer to the coast like the previous FV3 runs (and today’s 12z CMC) show.

    1. I was thinking the exact same thing. Almost soiled my shorts this AM
      when I took a peek at the Euro. 🙂

  13. Speaking of the 12z CMC, it is an absolute bomb (32mb pressure drop in 24 hours) with a blizzard for eastern ME and New Brunswick. Track that a bit further west and things get interesting for sure 🙂

  21. I had said last week that I had a funny feeling about this storm. Set up was there with the trough over the northeast and pieces of energy ejecting out of the Gulf and diving down from the Great Lakes. You get the timing just right, you get a phase, and boom!

    It’s still probably too late for SNE but we are oh so close to something bigger.

    1. Indeed and as I said Above, “cold enough” air is lurking nearby. With intense
      precip, we “could” realize some dynamic cooling. SHOULD this storm materialize, I would NOT rule out snow in SNE, especially inland.

  22. Tk, with all of the 12Z guidance in, do you still feel the same way you did
    this morning regarding system later this week? Curious… thanks

    1. Yes I do. Those models are not doing playing with the puzzle pieces. Eventually they’ll put it together, maybe.

  23. System for later in the week has the attention of our local NWS office.

    Thursday …

    Potential coastal storm. Forecast guidance consensus continues to
    step up the potency of N-stream energy diving S through preferred H5
    troughing into the sub-tropics pulling back N beneath lower heights.
    More favorable baroclincity beneath stronger dynamics / ascent, cold
    air seemingly eroded the previous day, looking at mostly rain with
    potential pockets of moderate to heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder
    as well. But nudging W high pressure ridge and a wide-open Atlantic,
    not going with likely PoPs just yet, keep it at chance. Uncertainty
    as to whether we can over-achieve on temperatures / dewpoints. Also
    watching winds as tides will be astronomically high (Boston only a
    foot shy of minor flooding). As to the 18.12z EC, near record with
    respect to lowest surface pressures for mid-March, it is somewhat
    suspicious but not ignoring it. If future model consistency, then
    concern with respect to tides and / or potentially manifestation of
    colder air yielding wet snow on the backside of the storm. Wait and
    see.

    1. IF this system happens, I am concerned about snow even into Boston.
      We shall see IF it ever even happens.

    1. The difference in the placement of the surface low that it thinks is going to form is so different from one run to the next, this is an auto red flag that this scenario does not have a lot of legs at the moment. I stand by my statement of earlier.

  28. Thank you, TK.

    We’ll see what happens in the coming 10 days. I trust TK’s forecast more than anyone else’s. What I like most is his cautious approach, and not biting on things that are in the long range.

    What I will say is that although it’s been nice and dry lately. A really fine stretch of weather. I did not believe the guidance suggesting it would stay basically bone dry for a long period in March, right into April. As I recall there were models saying Boston would be getting a minuscule amount of precipitation over a 2-week period in late March, early April. I’m always skeptical about predictions of dry weather in early spring in New England. It rarely happens. More often than not, storms form, often unexpectedly, and throw mostly rain at us in coastal New England. Sometimes, they toss some snow in for good measure, and sometimes a whole lot of snow.

    1. Totally agree. Recall that the Euro EPS last week was showing something like only 0.25″ of precip in Boston over the next two weeks. Not happening!

    3. That’s not really an inside runner though…as depicted through the time that model goes out.

      1. Well it sure as hell is hugging the coast down there and projecting for up here, I’d wager a bunch it would be an inside runner. 🙂 🙂

        But we need to see the system materialize 1st before we worry about inside, hugger etc…..

  30. If the FV3 nails this, that is going to be the coup of all time. I still find it incredibly hard to believe, as it would represent a very unusual evolution. But you can’t completely ignore the possibility at this stage. Obviously in addition to whether the storm actually happens there’s definitely issues with ptype. The 12z Euro was a “perfect storm” scenario, and still too warm for snow in most of SNE. So it’s hard to see it trending much colder. But I really am shaken by these runs today. It was honestly the last thing I expected, even if they don’t verify. Luckily it’s still just far enough out where a generic forecast of “chance of rain possibly mixed with snow” will suffice for most of SNE. But if overnight runs confirm the very abrupt changes we saw today, there will be a lot of scrambling tomorrow.

      1. Too much detail in their discussion for my liking, but the full moon on Thursday is part of the problem there. Have to be cautious, as if there is even a small threat of a major coastal storm at that time, you have to start factoring in coastal issues. The 12z Euro startled a lot of the Northeast offices today though. Lot of eyes on that period now, however it plays out.

        1. Thank you for the input. Yes, it has their attention, whether it plays out or not.

          Most curious to see what the 0Z runs have to say.

          Most interesting to say the least. I am tuned in, compared to yesterday’s Yawn,yawn,yawn……. 🙂

    1. Again my belief is the western members are exposing model mistakes on this scenario.

      Also we have to remember, a “good track” is not just automatic snow, even in March. We have had plenty of “benchmark” storms in the winter that have not been snowstorms. I don’t even like the benchmark rule that much. Only a handful of our decent snowstorms take that exact track.

      1. Yeah track alone here isn’t going to get it done if you want snow. We need the explosive deepening to start sooner….well south of our latitude.

  33. Hard to tell what the 18z NAM will do exactly after 84 hours but the 850mb 0C line has pushed nearly to the Canadian border by then. That spells rain for us unless the thing bombs out and creates some dynamic cooling as it passes most likely to our SE.

    2. Let me back-track. You misquoted Harvey. He did not say that at all.

      He said “one of our computer models is forecasting 1 to 2 inches of rain”. That is NOT Harvey’s forecast at all.

      1. I wonder if it is worth the met’s time to share computer model information? Perhaps they should just stick to their own forecast??

        1. This has been a debate for a while. I understand the mention of it because the public has become so bombarded with “the models” these days, not to mention having them very easily accessible to anybody who is on the net. I don’t need to repeat the risks I see doing this, and it’s not likely to change in the TV weather world any time soon. If I had my preference, other than mentioning model differences or guidance tendencies without getting too detailed, I prefer a met explains the upcoming situation the way THEY feel it will play out, or mentioning other possibilities, not so much tying them to specific models. While a lot of people can categorize that info, many cannot. The aim of these weather casts are to inform the public as accurately as possible, and a lot of that is lost when they are bombarded with TMI, or the “entertainment aspect” of weathercasts.

  36. 18z GFS finally in on the action with a sizable shift NW. Track is now inside the benchmark. NW flank of the storm is pretty devoid of precip despite the close track but it gets some heavy rain into eastern MA.

    It does not explosively deepen as it passes us, hence the warmer thermal profiles and rain, but it does get some heavy snow into interior Maine.

  37. I’m looking past this Friday’s possible storm since I think that if it happens it would be all rain here on the coastal plain (ah, that rhymes). Next week, on the other hand, looks a little more interesting. It looks like we’ll have some cold air to our north and northwest. With a storm or two riding up the coast there may be just enough cold air (it’ll be marginal and may have to occur at night to accumulate, but still) for snow at the coast. Snow in the interior looks fairly promising, actually. And snow in Northern New England, well, that looks almost certain. Skiing in April and perhaps beyond looks like a strong possibility once again this year.

  38. Harvey says his all clear date for snow is May 19th when Maria asked him about snow now . I bet you like that Tk .

  39. GFS looks really Sh**ty cold. Everyday I look, any sustained mild/warmth just seems to keep getting pushed back. I should just take a sleeping pill for another 45-60 days. I do this to myself every year. Get to thinking maybe… and nope.

        1. Yes, but also the reality of New England. The years in which spring arrived and that was that, well, I can count those on one hand. And, I’ve lived 54 years – 16 of which outside this country, but I followed the weather back home religiously during that period. Nice spring days happen, like February 5th and last Friday and Saturday. But, mostly it’s a long and arduous path towards spring and summer. I’ve always found spring to mostly be an extension of winter in these parts.

          One of the craziest spring events I’ve ever experienced was in late March 1998. Boston had a snowstorm of perhaps 5 inches. My then 4 year old daughter went sledding with her playgroup friends. The snow quickly vanished the next day as temps rose into the 60s. The following day it got even warmer, close to 90 as I recall. That day Tim Kelley showed a weather map of New England that I will never forget. It depicted a snowstorm near the Canadian border in Northern Maine with temps in the low 30s in Presque Isle, Bangor was around 55, Kittery 70, Boston 89 as I recall. Most of SNE basked in summer warmth, except the Cape and Islands which under the influence of a southerly and southwesterly wind over relatively cold water were in the 40s (Nantucket) and 50s (Cape) and foggy with mist.

  40. 18z Euro even further west than 12z tracking the low over SE MA at 988 mb. That would be a complete crush job for VT and northern NH. It’s already got over a foot of snow in the Whites at 90 hours/8AM Friday and not even close to done.

  42. SSK, yes Harvey’s answer was perfect, and true, although I usually use May 10 or 11. 😉

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