Tuesday Forecast

56 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)
Overall no big changes to this forecast with dry and chilly weather today into Wednesday, although the cold start will be replaced by a milder afternoon in winter’s final hours on Wednesday, with the vernal equinox occurring at 5:58PM. Quick changes for the first full day of spring, and a tweak to my forecast to add a little more rain as hang-back low pressure in the form of an inverted trough just off the Southeast Coast will form a low that will move up along or just ahead of an approaching cold front, adding some moisture to it. But the cold air coming on the back side of the system as it intensifies while moving away will be too late to change it fully to snow here. That cold air may result in a few rain to snow showers during Friday, when cloudiness will be the biggest aspect of the day to start, then wind later, which will last right into Saturday as it will be drier, but feeling like winter again. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving. Steadier rain develops afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Becoming windy. Temperatures fall to the 30s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Temperatures steady in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)
Breezy but dry and milder March 24 as high pressure positions itself southwest to south of the region. A cold front drops down from north to south March 25, and the speed of this front will dictate the temperatures, which may start mild then turn colder. Unsettled weather at least in the form of an overcast with potential drizzle or light mix may occur by late March 25 into March 26, but will have to watch a potential wave of low pressure passing south of the region that may be close enough to enhance the precipitation threat. Drier weather to end the period with temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
A drier and milder end to March but the weather may turn colder and unsettled to start April. Low confidence outlook at this time.

56 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  7. 0Z and 6Z guidance stilla advertising a rain event for Thursday evening/Friday AM, but
    it is beginning to look a little bit different. hmmm……

      1. No, if anything warmer. What I was hinting at, was that
        it was trending a bit more to what TK was suggesting all along, but not quite. Yet still different than some of the bombs yesterday’s
        guidance was suggesting.

        Still plenty rainy though.

  8. Good morning, everyone!
    Thanks, TK…

    Beautiful colors in this morning’s sunrise. Sun was coming up through clouds that were in the distance hanging over Cape Cod Bay.

  9. This is the time of the season that dynamic cooling can take place if the atmosphere is just right. It will be interesting if future events after Thursday’s this element ever comes into play.

    I have always wondered if the April Fool’s storm was more of a “dynamic cooling” event than anything else.

    1. April Fools storm was COLD air being infused into the system, I do believe. more so than dynamic cooling I think.

    1. Cindy on Ch. 5 showed a model with up to a full inch for Boston. There always seems to be a fire danger every spring around here anyway, so I guess it is welcome.

  18. First call on rain is 0.25 to 0.75 inch with 99% of it occurring during the darkness between dusk and dawn Thursday night / Friday morning. This will not be an impressive event in SNE with the exception of some potential moderate coastal flooding due to astronomically high tides.

    1. TK, thoughts on the White Mountains? Snow or rain? When does the wind kick up on the ski slopes?

      1. Start as snow, coating to 1 inch lower elevations and a few inches higher elevations, then rain for the bulk Thursday night, ending as snow showers with up to 1 or 2 inches favoring elevation during Friday.

        Wind, moderate from the east to start the event, not strong at all during much of Friday, then picking up pretty strong from the north and west Friday night and especially Saturday when there will be additional snow showers.

  19. Regarding the earlier comments on the 4-1-1997 event, it was a combination of dynamic cooling and cold air being pulled in at lower levels as well. That storm still stands as the second biggest snowstorm (in terms of inches of new snow) that I have observed, with 30 here in Woburn. The only storm I have observed with more snow was the Blizzard of 1978.

    1. Two amazing storms for sure. We had 30 inches at least once recently in Framingham. That was the one where SIL had to go out the window since our doors opened out. But oddly, the date escapes me because it wasn’t as memorable as the two you mentioned.

    1. Thank you. I’d love to take one. I wish the Milford one were the same time as the natick one. But I’ll keep on my radar.

  21. So when many were jumping on the big storm bandwagon across social media yesterday it was when the 18z NAM was showing a 988mb low just east of the Delmarva at 06z Friday. What do you think today’s 18z NAM will show at that same time? I’m guessing a much weaker low and not in the same place. This thing is going to be a glorified cold frontal passage.

      1. No surprise there. There’s going to be a let-down factor because this thing was billed as a decent storm. It won’t be.

        1. my only disappointment is that no snow will be involved, big storm or not. But other than some earlier renditions, it was obvious no snow.

          1. The earlier renditions were bad model forecasts because they were not even developing the correct wave. They were developing the wave that’s actually going far south of us, not the piece of energy that become the inverted trough that then becomes the low. So those earlier renditions were complete trash anyway. My comment just below refers to this.

  22. The way this thing is going to evolve, it’s not even correct to give the FV3 nor the ICON credit for getting it right, now that I think about this.

  24. Regarding the 4/1/97 storm, iirc a couple days or so prior, it was only expected as a few rain showers Sunday night/Monday. Talk about “sneaky snow”. 😉

    Is my memory correct TK?

    1. The first we started to worry something big might happen was about 3 days before. By Saturday night, some forecasters were talking about significant snow possible by late Monday after starting as rain. By Sunday, which was a windy and mild day in the lower 60s, it was pretty apparent that something big was about to unfold, starting in less than 24 hours. The rain to snow scenario was expected. I don’t think anybody could have forecast the snow amounts as high as they were, but for one, Barry Burbank was in the ballpark about 48 hours out.

      1. I had said yesterday that I well remember listening to sources I trusted and knowing ahead it would be big. Very big. But not only here….it’s path was predicted to have considerable damage. And it did

      2. That Sunday was Easter Sunday. I remember having dessert outside after dinner because it was so nice. I also remember seeing “Blizzard Warning” running across the TV screen in a scroll. My first reaction that it was an April Fool’s joke and getting concerned that the station was using the news as part of a joke. It wasn’t a joke! 🙂

  25. This storm is looking sweet for the ski areas of Upstate NY, VT, NH, and ME. Nice snows on the back side of the system Friday as it strengthens and pulls into the Maritimes. Then decent up slope snows continue into Saturday. Coupled with strong winds, could be near blizzard conditions on the summits. Most models indicating the potential for double digit snows in the mountains by Sunday with accumulating snow likely as far south as the Monadnocks, Berkshires, and Worcester County.

    Most ski areas already have deep bases for this time of year. Nice to see another good spring ski season shaping up!

      1. Gets as much as 3-6″ of snow as far south as the Berkshires and even NW CT. Whites and western ME are slammed as well.

  29. The overnight long term discussion from the NWS Boston office is really good. A must read if you want to know what’s going on tomorrow, especially the overview section at the start of the long term. There’s a little typo where the word “no” should read “now”, in case there’s confusion. But it does such a good job of explaining why, synoptically, this is going to work out much closer to our original ideas of a late, offshore phase. Only instead it will be a late phase, but much further northwest than originally thought. But not a fully phased coastal bomb. As it passes us, as the discussion I linked words it, it’s still a “double trough”. The sensible weather result is a compromise, as we still get a decent slug of rain, but much less of the other hazards that come along with a strong offshore low.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    1. I read this with my early morning coffee after taking out my trash & recycle and it was nice to see such a great discussion! I am going to re-post the link on the new blog.

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