Wednesday Forecast

31 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)
High pressure dominates and gives a nice March day for the final hours of winter, leading to the Vernal Equinox, or the arrival of spring, at 5:58PM. Today’s V.E. also coincides with the Full Worm Moon, the first time the 2 have done this in 38 years (1981), and the last time it will happen for 19 more (2030). We will eek out another rather decent day Thursday as the evolution of what is upcoming is slower to occur than thought just a couple days ago. I am going to re-post a link posted on the last blog in which the NWS explains the synoptic situation very nicely, as pointed out by one of the readers, who is an impressive young meteorologist himself. But in short, what’s going to happen is a cold front moving in from the west will have a semi-merger with a developing low pressure area down the coast, bringing a slug of rain through the region Thursday night. As the low intensifies and expands while exiting New England via eastern Canada, it will drag colder air in on its back side and create the typical March bluster which will take until Friday night to really set in, and linger through Saturday, which will remind you that we are not that far out of winter, and can still feel its effects into early spring easily. By Sunday, the low will have moved away to lose influence and high pressure passing south of the region will bring a milder westerly air flow. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54 except a bit cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain, possibly briefly heavy. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 10-20 MPH. Minor coastal flooding possible.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Lows 30-37. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W, moderate and gusty.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind W, light to moderate.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)
A mild start and cold finish March 25 as a cold front drops down from the north and may bring a period of rain which ends as mix/snow. Fair/chilly March 26-27 as high pressure drifts down from Canada keeping additional storminess to the south of the region. Early idea is for continued mainly dry with a milder trend toward the end of this period as high pressure shifts to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Initial idea at this point as high pressure offshore, low pressure Great Lakes with a mainly dry and mild finish to the month of March. April’s early days may bring brief unsettled weather followed by a shift to colder.

31 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU. HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU. HAPPY BIRTHDAY DEEEAAARRRRR, DR. STUPID. HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU!!

    1. Friday NightRain likely before 8pm, then snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

      SaturdayA 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32.

      Saturday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 19.

      SundaySunny, with a high near 42.

    2. Matt, it should be a powder weekend up there! Plenty of upslope snows on the back side of the storm should deliver 6″+. The NWS point and click makes it sound much more benign.

      I do worry about wind holds on some of the lifts Saturday though as the winds will be ripping.

  15. Imagine if the low passed near or just east of the benchmark…SNE would be buried to say the least. Oh well. 🙂

    1. I’m not sure on this one. Not enough cold air, so much so, that even dynamic cooling wouldn’t be able to overcome the relative warmth.

  16. Happy Bday Doc!!

    Any idea yet on the timing of the arrival of the rain tomorrow night? And will it begin light? Have someone traveling Lexington to Western Mass who was curious – thanks!!!

    1. Actually that GFS solution is likely but all of that is moving southeast at that point. It’s a cold frontal passage sometime Monday. The snow is almost always over-forecast on those set-ups. The ECMWF solution for later next week is the most likely. GEM can go in the trash. That piece of garbage model may be the only thing out there worse than the FV3, and I thought that was not possible.

      1. So, TK, could you please tell me how you really feel??

        Btw, your assessment appears to be spot on. 🙂

  19. I’m feeling daring, so here’s an officially unofficial prediction from yours truly:

    Some areas will stay in the 30s next Tuesday. Some of those same areas will be in the 70s before March is over.

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