Monday Forecast

7:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 22-26)
Earth Day 2019. Locally we will see more greening up. We need rain to help that, right? Right. We’ll see it off and on this week, which will be rather unsettled. But we’ve been on the mild to warm side of late, but the next few days will be somewhat cooler. Low pressure forms offshore and moves up across eastern New England today and tonight, slowly departing Tuesday, as upper level low pressure crosses the region. Another low will pass north of the region Wednesday and send its cold front through here, and the next in a series of systems is due on Friday with more unsettled weather. Thursday may be the only day in this 5-day stretch without the threat of at least some rainfall. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partial sun early, then cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers developing from south to north, heaviest in eastern locations. Highs 58-65 occurring by midday then cooling somewhat. Wind light variable becoming NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly heavy. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle, especially in the morning. Highs 53-60 except 60-67 southwestern NH and central MA. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 59-66. Wind variable becoming W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs 58-65, coolest Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 27-MAY 1)
Gusty breeze, cooler, but mainly dry or isolated rain showers April 27. Next low pressure systems brings wet weather threat April 28. Fair, breezy, cooler to end April with a milder trend by the end of the period to start May.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 2-6)
May end up near a boundary between warm air to the south and lingering Canadian cold, leaving the door open for unsettled weather and an uncertain temperature forecast.

98 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thank you all for the congrats on my acceptance. ๐Ÿ™‚ Plus I hope everyone’s Easter was a good one.

      1. I will, I will def post pictures as well ๐Ÿ™‚ I am in the process of making my own webpage and will share when I have it up and running. ๐Ÿ™‚

  2. 12Z HRRR wants to give Boston about 0.60 inch of rain while inland grabs up to 1 1/2 inches.

    So far, not looking like a big deal to me. We shall see IF there are any surprises.

    1. 12Z NAM wants to deliver 1.57 inches to Boston. A wee bit of a difference there.
      Waiting on 3KM Nam.

  3. Thank you, TK.

    What a beautiful part of the world we live in. Mother Nature is tending her garden. Flowers and buds are popping. Sun early, cloudy now, rain later. All to bring us the eye candy!

    And wow was it spectacular last evening.

    1. Oh my, Coastal. I remember many times swimming there and fishing nearby. I am surprised I do not recall anything like this. I also do not recall if jackson falls is part of the Ellis. I have a photo of the covered bridge as my computer wallpaper. I know there is an upper and lower falls. Such a beautiful area!

  4. With the 12Z suite of models, there remains much divergence for rain today.
    Anywhere from a little more than 1/2 inch upwards of 2 inches. Time to throw
    the dart and where it lands no one knows.

    1. This is probably the rain we were supposed to get on Holy Saturday. The models were off by a couple days.

    1. I would say after tonight, we will more than make up for any deficit. One inch plus rain expected.

  5. I forgot that I asked my older brother why some mountains are closing when they have snow. He explained that many of the folks who work the mountains in the winter are leaving for their spring/summer jobs. Also, the majority of folks they get this time of year are season ticket holders. Makes sense to me.

    He also said that Cannon does not charge for lift tickets for anyone over 70 or 75. He is over both so could not remember which. I am amazed that other mountains have not adopted that policy. Sad.

  6. Picked up a pretty quick 0.11 inch. Of course it started coming down as soon as I started to put the trash out. Figures. Story of my life.

  7. The rain is really filling in! A bit of go it was just a ribbon, and now it extends all the
    way to the Cape. Gonna get pretty wet around here!

  8. 0.25 inch here and still coming. Models that said .6 inch, I kind of think underplayed this
    situation.

      1. Ok, now the question is, does any of this get up here.
        I am guessing no, although it is certainly possible.

  9. Well, the NAO looks like it is going negative.

    Can kind of see the effects of that in projected surface features some days down the road.

    New England seems the road block for Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic warmth, with boundaries overhead or maybe just south of us cutting off arrivals of spring-like warmth.

    Lovely ………

    1. Thanks Debbie Downer II.
      I’ll bet it’s not nearly has bad/dreary here as you think. ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚
      Cheer up, I know it’s rough being back in School.

      I have ZERO complaints. Even the ocean is warmer than average. Can never complain about that this time of year. ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. Lol, so true. School was nice today.

        It’s 48F in Marshfield with a wind driven thick mist and a raw breeze off of the cold ocean.

        I shall try to be better ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

        But I surely do miss the 70s and low 80s, the 60F dewpoints and the warm 65 degree sun angle.

    2. Welcome back, Tom! Did the tornado warnings get anywhere near your location Friday night? Mac’s twin and family were in Reston, VA and had one warning directly over them but all was fine.

      1. Thanks Vicki ! Yes, we slept through one Friday night. I’m sure it was just a rotating thunderstorm as there was nothing to see in the area Saturday morning. Great light show Friday night !!

        1. Ugh – scary to sleep through even if in hindsight it was not a tornado. I was glued to the radar and saw the boxed areas heading for Reston and also toward the coast although I didn’t konw where you were. I wasn’t feeling well so dozed off for a few when I thought all was safe and woke up in time to see one over Reston. Cam said they were in a restaurant and all power was out but so far so good.

      1. Sounds as if it would be fun

        We are at 0.65 and still moderate to heavy rain. I actually thought it would be more than .65

  10. Still raining here. Was at the store and it was raining so hard, could hear it pounding on the roof. Looks like lightning has diminished, but plenty more rain on the way.

    1. HA HA!!!! The sea gulls are drinking out of the rain gauge.

      1.o6 inch here in JP and still going UP! It is mighty wet out there !!!
      I can watch it tic onward and upward.

  11. It is pouring buckets here!!! Wait a minute, I hear dogs barking and cats meowing!!!
    HOLY CRAP BATMAN, it’s raining cats and dogs!_@#*(!@#*(!)@&#&!@(**!&

  12. ZERO lightning on the lightning detection websites. Nothing, NADA, ZILCH!!!
    Not to say some couldn’t redevelop, but so far, so good on that front…

    1. 1.41. Youโ€™re gaining. From others closer to coast seems the rain is harder in that way. Where oh where did I hear it would be heavier in eastern locations.

  13. Shoot and a score for the HRRR and 3km NAM on todayโ€™s storm. I never hold a model to details on things like the placement of precipitation bullseyes, but to be able to indicate the potential for 2โ€ rain somewhere in eastern SNE from an innocuous low like this is fantastic.

  14. I think thereโ€™s been some more tweaking on the FV3. Why? Because it looks more and more like the old GFS in its output. In its testing phase there have been instances of large differences compared against the old GFS. I donโ€™t see that as much, even at longer ranges. The 18z runs today are good examples.

    This isnโ€™t necessarily a bad thing. The GFS usually isnโ€™t bad with โ€œbig pictureโ€ features. Hopefully the FV3 can maintain consistency on that level while adding some value on traditional GFS struggle points like boundary layer profiles.

  15. Thank you, TK. As you mentioned 4 days ago, “Monday will be the wettest day.” You were right. This is a potent rainmaker. The positioning of the low is ideal for a January snowstorm. Alas, this one didn’t happen 3 months ago.

    Really bad flooding in my building. The water table must be high, as it’s not draining in the courtyard (under 3 inches of water and rising) and trash area (same as courtyard). Nor is the water draining well in the city streets. Fear is that once there’s an overflow from the courtyard it’s in all the garden-level units. I’m hoping this rain stops soon.

  16. And it continues to RAIN!

    Up to 1.83 inches and continuing to climb with plenty to go yet.
    Closing in on 2 inches, will it make it? I am saying YES!

    1. Cool. Occurred to me we need to check our basement. I will be surprised if we make 2. Maybe 1.75. If Iโ€™m reading the radar correctly… You have a slug coming in off the ocean and we have a fair amount of holes

  17. It is really RAINING on the North Shore. I must be under some band. is this beast overachieving?

  18. About to watch TV for a while…

    1.92 inches and still raining pretty good. A nice soaker!! The more it rains, the more
    the Large Mouth Bass will gather to feed in certain places (which I know). ๐Ÿ™‚ Hope to catch some on Sunday AM.

    .08 to go to make 2 inches. Looks like it WILL happen.

    1. We stalled at 1.49.

      Well done JPD…radar looks as if you will surely add to that

      If it were not so late, we could all guess how much you end up with

  19. 2.59 inches with one last band rotating in.
    We’ll see tomorrow what the final tally is.
    Good night all. ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. I wonder if the mighty Merrimack River will become even mightier after all this rain drains into it.

  20. Jp Dave you got quite the soaking! I struggled to get almost an inch here, ended up with .98. While Vicki a few towns over from me received a half inch more than I did.

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