DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)
This 5-day portion of the blog forecast takes us right through the Memorial Day Weekend, and considering the pattern we had been in for the vast majority of the spring, this is not really that bad an outlook. The cloudiest of the 5 will be today as a warm front approaches, and this front may produce a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm later in the day, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Its parented by low pressure diving southeastward from eastern Canada, destined to cross Maine tonight while dragging its cold front through southern New England, and this front will likely set off some showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong. While we are not in the SPC severe weather area, I cannot completely rule out a severe storm or two, so it will be a situation we will have to watch for tonight. The low pressure that crosses Maine will become a temporary pest in the ocean to the east, sending some extra clouds, a northeast breeze, and perhaps a few showers across the region Friday, although the day will be mainly dry. Then we get to the Memorial Day Weekend when we’ll be quickly into a southwesterly to westerly flow as a couple troughs cross the region, one later Saturday, and one sometime on Sunday. This period will be warmer than average but will not be without a couple rain shower or thunderstorm threats, but the time of rainfall in any given location will be a small percentage of the overall time during those 2 days, favoring Saturday night and early Sunday, and perhaps in a few spots later Sunday. High pressure looks set to move in for a splendid Memorial Day, with the previous late-day shower threat no longer an issue as that system will be slower to approach.
TODAY: Variably to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm especially late-day, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms, a few of which can be strong, mainly between 8PM and 1AM. Lows 50-57. Wind light variable except possibly gusty and variable near any showers and storms, then N 5-15 MPH overnight.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78, except 63-70 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring early morning and late afternoon hours. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
Timing is not certain for this period but this is a rough idea of what a west-to-east flow should bring the region, and that is a warm frontal passage with showers May 28, a shot of very warm to hot and humid air with a risk of late-day thunderstorms May 29, drying and somewhat cooler but nice weather May 30, then a risk of a shower or thunderstorm between later May 31 and early June 1 with the next passing disturbance.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)
Favored fair weather to start and end period with unsettled risk most likely mid period. Temperatures near to above normal.