Wednesday Forecast

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)
A disturbance, the second in a series of 3, will pass south of the region today and may bring some showers to the South Coast. The rest of the region will escape those showers, although a diurnally-driven pop-up shower may still occur in central MA and southern NH this afternoon. The marine layer has resulted in a lot of low cloudiness which will eventually burn off in some areas but may have difficulty as the sun is compromised and much weaker due to higher cloudiness above. The third and final wave of low pressure in the series will be the strongest and also cut a pathway further north, bringing the boundary it’s riding along right into southern New England late Thursday and Thursday night. This will result in more widespread rainfall which also includes the risk of thunderstorms, though no severe weather will occur. We will have to watch for the possibility of road flooding due to some heavier rainfall in some locations. But this wave will be moving right along and drier air will begin to move in after a damp start to Friday, leaving the end of that day much different than it started, the contrast going from rather tranquil but overcast, damp, and rain or drizzle lingering as the day dawns, to a gusty wind, sunshine, and dry air as the day ends. What about the weekend? Looking great! Still may hold onto a gusty breeze Saturday as we will still be between high pressure approaching from the west and low pressure to the northeast of the region, and that will keep the air dry and the air temperature below 80. By Sunday, high pressure is right on us, and 80+ may occur away from where coastal sea breezes develops.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers favoring the South Coast. Isolated pop-up showers afternoon southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely, some possibly heavy. Risk of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely, some possibly heavy. Risk of thunderstorms. Lows 60-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with lingering showers/drizzle/fog early, then clearing. Highs 71-78. Wind variable to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late-day.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)
Warmer and more humid June 24-25 with a shower or thunderstorm threat both days. Less humid thereafter with a brief shower threat later June 26 or early June 27. Most of this 5-day period will be rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)
West to east flow over a high pressure ridge to the south and west of New England is a pattern that brings seasonable to warm weather, is rain-free most of the time, but also provides a few opportunities moving along the jet stream to bring a shower/t-storm threat. This is the pattern currently expected for this period.

39 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you, TK.

    Thank you also to every one of our WHW family who sent birthday wishes along yesterday. I had a very special day. You all help to make each and every day of the year special!!

    1. Thanks, Tom. Almost, but not quite yet. Have to make it to 2:20. Kids till 11:30, then teacher day to 2:20!

      Hope you slept in a bit.

  2. Thanks for the forecast, TK. Wonder how these folks in the UK (or their pets!) reacted to this last night:

    Eastbourne sees 1,000 lightning strikes in one hour

    Some 1,000 lightning strikes illuminated the skies above Eastbourne as torrential rain and thunderstorms lashed part of the UK overnight. Storms lit up the East Sussex seaside town for about an hour, while 42mm of rain fell further north in Lenham in Kent.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-48688194

    1. They actually get a ton of lightning over there. A lot of mountains help storms to form.

      1. Thank you. I was curious about that and have been doing some reading. You’re of course right that that they do have tstorms, more so in the southeast. And Eastbourne as you also explained has a number of mountains surrounding it. The temps are not high on average ….. with exceptions as in 2006…..and the tstorms seem to be more common in the warmer areas…which makes sense. As is the case of everywhere else, their average temp is increasing. It seemed that this was fairly extreme, but I need to read more too. There has also been recent severe flooding nearby. I do find this fascinating.

  3. Tim Buckley‏Verified account @TimBuckleyWX

    Amazing clouds spotted at Smith Mountain Lake, Virginia last night. Amy Hunter took this photo and tells me her jaw dropped! These are known as Kelvin-Helmhotz clouds — I explain in this story: https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/weather/rare-wave-like-clouds-spotted-at-smith-mountain-lake-tuesday/83-7830deac-8625-494f-a9dc-cf7762098a60 … @WFMY @wfmyweather

    https://twitter.com/TimBuckleyWX/status/1141365823283630080

  4. As a snow lover Mark looking at those NAO charts depressing. If we had that during the winter you got a figure at least one or two coastal storms could have come up here to nail us.

  5. On a positive note the negative NAO not allowing us to get into big time heat and humidity. I know its been muggy the past couple of days but after last summer dew points in the mid 60s don’t feel so bad.

  6. The sun is out in full swing here in Swampscott. The June sun has prevailed. Looks like one last shot of wet weather tomorrow pm into Fri am before we see a more typical summertime pattern just in time for the start of summer!

    And no Vicky, there is no snow in sight, at least in southern New England, unfortunately:)

    1. I’m all in on that summertime pattern.

      BTW the ECMWF is going downhill in the last few runs. I think we are entering a transition in which the new GFS will outperform it. But we will see.

    2. Ha. There is snow somewhere. Sue is correct. But it is a pleasure to see you. Sun was out for a good part of today in Sutton also

  7. Hopefully will get some thunderstorms to start tracking when we get into this summertime pattern.

  8. Alisonrod, just remember, it’s snowing somewhere on this earth of ours. Every day of the year.

    Mark, thanks for reminding us all of the beauty of the alpina flora on the east side of Mount Washington. I’ve been there many times. Amazingly hardy vegetation. It’s essentially the same climate as Northern Labrador.

    The low countries have experienced a lengthy period of very little rain – about 16-18 months of much lower than average rainfall. That has been changing in recent weeks; mostly by way of thunderstorms and an unusually unstable atmosphere (they had a tornado in a place called Rheden; tornadoes are rare in Holland).

    Here’s a picture taken today in Holland:

    https://nos.nl/data/image/2019/06/07/555284/1600×900.jpg

      1. Yes, I saw that you said that.

        It’s snowed every month of the year atop Mt. Washington. My guess is that Katahdin in Maine is similar, but they don’t have an observatory on top of that incredible mountain.

  9. Many of you have seen the picture taken in Northern Greenland – near Qaanaaq (which is close to the U.S. air force base at Thule) of the dogs walking through water. The headlines almost suggested a catastrophic event was taking place. Leave it to a Dutch climate scientist – fyi, the Dutch are a very sober-minded people, phlegmatic to an extreme, if you will – to clarify what we’re seeing in the picture. The article below is in Dutch. You may want to Google translate it to English. The gist is this: It’s relatively warm across Greenland right now; warmer than average. But, the last couple of years have actually been cooler than normal in Northern Greenland. The overall trend since the late 90s, however, is rising temperatures. Melting ice in the fjords is a recurring theme, every summer from June to August. This is what we’re seeing in the picture, NOT melting icecaps, or glacial ice.

    https://nos.nl/artikel/2289709-sledehonden-lopen-op-water-uitschieter-van-de-temperatuur.html

    1. Thank you. I have been seeing stories circulating about a tragedy unfolding there and while I don’t dispute the long term trend, there is not a major catastrophe ongoing either.

      One headline made it seem that it was highly unusual for ice to melt in Greenland… in June. Ok.

    1. I basically issued an “unofficial” one a couple times here in the comments.

      A lot of close to average (temperatures & precip), maybe weighted slightly to the + side on both. But summer precipitation is very hard to nail down due to the variability of convection. You can get 5 inches of rain in one event, putting you above for a month, and have the rest of the month virtually rain-free at that location.

  10. There has been an increase in freshwater output from the greenland Ice sheet in the past three years. Its part of the reason why we are seeing below avg ocean temps here in the Gulf of Maine for the first time in over 9 years. In terms of a 1 days melting it was near the record.

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