DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)
Heading into the summer I had been debating with myself if, after a frequently wet spring, we’d see a summer that resembled 1983, blasting into much drier weather and a lot of heat, or something more like the solar minimum summers that my colleague talked about, lacking sustained heat and having occasional northwest flow thunderstorm opportunities. So far, it’s been a little more the latter, but a taste of the former is on the way as we get into a blast of heat Friday that will probably last at least a few days. But before there, we have some other weather to go through, including another beautiful summer day today with fairly low humidity and a fair amount of sunshine. One change to the previous forecast is that the moisture associated with the remains of Barry are moving faster than was original expected, and will also be elongated, so this means unsettled weather arrives sooner during tomorrow (not waiting until late at night) and will still last into Thursday. But also another difference, previously thinking we’d be on the warmer more humid side of a boundary Thursday, that has now changed and it looks like a frontal boundary will be pulled southward, taking the edge off what would have been oppressive humidity and also limiting how high the temperature will get with more cloud cover and a generally onshore (easterly) air flow across the region. And then…… well I already mentioned that, but things flip around and shift so that the heat and humidity arrives Friday, but while the heat remains and probably peaks Saturday, it may dry out somewhat due to a downsloping westerly wind across the region.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Variably cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms arriving / developing afternoon. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind light S.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Very humid. Highs 81-88 Cape Cod, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 72-79. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Slightly less humid. Highs 92-99, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)
The overall pattern will be westerly air flow aloft but with the upper ridge backing up through the Midwest. We start out rather hot then trend back toward more seasonable. Limited opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with dry weather being dominant.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)
Heading into the final days of July expect a pattern in which the ridge center backs up a little more toward the upper Plains. This allows a little bit more of a dip in the jet stream into the Great Lakes and Northeast which won’t put us in a cool pattern, keeping it more typical for the season, but increasing the risk of shower and thunderstorm threat somewhat.