Saturday Forecast

167 Comments

9:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)
Sparing you a long discussion today and putting a short summary in this place instead. You know all about the weekend heat, and here it is. All that’s left is to see what the numbers turn out to be. Besides the usual cautions with heat, we’ll watch for thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches. It’s not a great set-up for severe weather here but any time you have storms breaking heat there is always the chance of at least an isolated one may contain severe weather. It looks like the front will move far enough south to easily break the heat by Monday, but a wave of low pressure on it will bring unsettled weather later Monday into at least early Tuesday. How deep into Tuesday it stays that way will depend on the speed of the low pressure area and how quickly it can pull the front back to the south after rippling it back to the north Monday night and early Tuesday. Once we get to Wednesday, we’re back in the dry air, but fairly refreshing air from Canada. We may have to watch for some pop up clouds due to colder air above after the sun heats the ground and sends thermals skyward. Not sure if this can develop any showers yet but will watch it.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Very humid. Highs 93-100, hottest Merrimack Valley, except 85-92 South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 74-81. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Party sunny afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible late in the day. Moderately humid. Highs 93-100, hottest interior valleys, except 85-92 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible. Moderately humid. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the morning. Lowering humidity. Highs 70-77. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)
Weak high pressure controls the weather July 25-26 with mainly dry weather but we may have to watch a sea breeze boundary for a possible trigger of a shower or thunderstorm each day. Modified summer heat returns for the July 27-28 weekend, not to the degree of this weekend, with a shower or thunderstorm threat absent on July 27 but likely present on July 28, which may persist into July 29 with a front nearby.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30-AUGUST 3)
Seasonable warmth and a risk of a few showers/thunderstorms July 30-31. Summer heat may return for the first few days of August with limited shower/thunderstorm chances.

167 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. A TV met said that when a front passes through on Sunday “it may be too hot for any storms to develop.” What is the science behind this?

    1. He must have been talking about the cap in the atmosphere that
      causes any rising air to stop rising. No rising air, not t-storms.

      A cap is a layer of air that prevents convection or limits dynamic lifting. Another way of describing a cap is that it is a layer of stable air aloft. Below are some common ways a cap can form:

      http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/405/

      1. Heard that not too long ago on a collection I play from time to time. I always thought J.S. was underrated. My favorite is his solo tune “Welcome Back” which of course is the theme for a popular 70s TV show. 🙂

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I understand that there may be a cap tomorrow with EML remnants.

    How will that affect any possible storms tomorrow?
    Will the aproaching front provide enough lift to break through?
    Or will there actually be no cap, even though it was well mentioned from Mets and
    NWS?

    Curious.

    Thanks

    1. Best I can tell we will have some capping but we should be able to break it with 1 or 2 storm clusters somewhere, but over a fairly large area, so that leaves the strong chance that a lot of this area is missed tomorrow late-day / evening.

    1. I’m going to go 97 and 98. I added 1 degree from yesterday’s forecast. 😉

        1. They will need a good west to west northwest wind and a dew point crash to get there. It’s pretty much the only way.

          1. Well, the west wind will be in place…of course what really is the difference between 98 and 101 on the human body? Still miserable regardless.

  7. Thanks so much, TK.
    Breathtaking photo, amigo. You are an artist. Thanks for sharing. I bought a Canon Rebel t6 for my birthday two weeks ago. I love it.

    From my notes from August 2, 1975: Hourly WBZ Radio temps:
    9 am: 88; 10 am: 89; 11 am: 95; Noon: 98; 1 pm: 101; 2pm: 100;
    At Logan: 1:38 pm: 97; 2:30: 100; 3:10 pm: 102
    At Green Airport: 2 pm: 102; 2:20 pm 105 (although the official high ended up being 104)

  8. Robert, thanks for your reports from Siesta Key. My college roommate lives there. We spent a fantastic week there a couple of Februarys ago. Paradise!

  9. Hartford Brainard: 91 with a dewpoint of 75 and heat index of 102 with the latest update….10:53am

    1. It’s already 83 with a dewpoint of 74 and heat index of 90 on the island though. No bueno for biking!

  13. Having a pool party, I actually put water in it last night since the water temp was 80 degrees. Its down to 72 for now. Heat index already well into the 90s. I guess a good thing about my hand being injured I don’t have to do any of the heavy lifting lol. Always have to look at the positives. Plus this will be the first day I will be able to go in the pool. The fact that this injury happened back on March and I went skiing with it lol.

  14. 91.4 right now.

    I think the highest heat index I have ever experienced was an August, 2007 trip to the Outer Banks. It was 96 with a dew point of 81!

    Hope everyone is doing well.

  15. This is pretty funny: From Channel 4:

    BRAINTREE (CBS) — The Braintree Police Department had some fun explaining to residents that they should “hold off” on any crimes they are planning this weekend.

    In a Facebook post, they wrote, “Folks. Due to the extreme heat, we are asking anyone thinking of doing criminal activity to hold off until Monday.”

    They said doing so would be dangerous because of the hot temperatures.

    Instead, police provided alternatives: “Stay home, blast the AC, binge Stranger Things season 3, play with the face app, practice karate in your basement. We will all meet again on Monday when it’s cooler.”

    The post was signed, “Sincerely, The PoPo. PS: please no spoiler alerts. We’re just finishing season 2.”

  17. I for one am not impressed with the temperature rise today. Frankly, I expected
    a more rapid increase in temperature. I see there is a milky sky (debris clouds?) that
    is perhaps cutting back a tad on Solar Insolation?

    Could be a day where the heat lags a bit? I dunno.

    Hrrr still says 98 for Boston. Logan is currently at 94 with dp 72 heat index 102

    We shall see. I will continue to monitor.

    2. One of the wildcards today was debris cloudiness. The other one was wind direction. Temps are right where I expected them to be so far (removed from the doom and gloom media forecasts of explosive rise to a million degrees, give or take). Also Boston’s bad thermometer is standing out like a sore thumb today. 2 degrees too warm easily. It’s 92 there, not 94.

      1. Thanks. Wind direction supports the heat (at the moment anyway).
        I think you suspect Taunton’s thermometer as well.
        But I thought that Norwood’s was fine?

      1. They sure can. I would think show my daughter was to go to in Plymouth tomorrow will be cancelled also

  19. It’s brutal out, I am out and about.

    I’d throw out there I think today feels worse than the 103F, 62F dewpoint of July 22nd, 2011.

    The temp will say it’s cooler today, but today’s combo is harder to accomplish.

  23. wind dropped off to 6mp at logan. If it doesn’t pick up, a sea breeze may kick in
    right along the immediate coast.

    1. With Boston Buoy at 72F, at this point it won’t likely provide any real relief other than keeping temps in check.

      Remember back in April/May when we were constantly complaining? 😉

      1. A 45-50 water temp would feel really good about now. Too bad we have to wait until next spring. 😉

  25. Is the debris cloudiness the result of a “dirty” high over us? If it keeps the temps in check, I’ll take it.

        1. I was talking about it on yesterday’s blog and cited it as one of the reason why pretty much nobody would hit 100 today.

  26. I headed to a local farm for fruits and veggies. I figured I’d be the only nit wit to go out at noon today. I’ve seen it busy but maybe no more than 2/3 of lot full and then rarely. There was a line waiting to park. Hardy folk out this way 😉

    1. I am looking forward to next month when peaches become available. My favorite summer fruit next to strawberries in June. 🙂

  28. I was thinking of cutting the lawn tomorrow afternoon because of the possible storms on Monday. Will it be enough rain or should I just let it grow longer?

        1. A few days ago. I’m not sure you came back after commenting. I love its options. I want to get one for out front

      2. Vicki – get the neighbors app for your phone. It is made by ring. People report things they saw in the neighborhood on their ring cameras. It’s like a modern neighborhood watch.

      3. Thanks Stupid!

        Vicki, I pay they yearly fee of $100. When I view clips on my phone I can share/ download the video by deleting the icon in the bottom right corner.

        Just as Stupid said, it’s just like a neighborhood watch. I get up dates from neighbors using the same ring equipment/app. Bear sightings and strangers trespassing are popular.

        No flooding in my neck of the woods. The Saco River just below the Notch is very refreshing.

        1. Hmmmm what am I not getting for $30/yr. I can view in my phone and iPad and computer. Daughter and SIL who live here can also. I can share videos too

          I have an alarm system in my house so didn’t go for the $10/month option which included surveillance

              1. Good thought. I paid for year since $30 is chump change for the year. How many Devices do you have. I’m taking of either the spotlight camera out front or dorrbell. But since two year old still naps, we have our doorbell disconnected

  29. Gorgeous day here on block island. A bit steamy biking around on the roads but nice breeze by the water. Just stopped at Mansion Beach and jumped in the water and got goosebumps. Water temp is supposedly hovering around 69-70. Refreshing to say the least!

    1. I am jealous! Enjoy! Sounds so refreshing!

      I just made a jug of lemon Aide. That’s about it for me.

  31. Looks like Logan’s high will be capped at 95 or 96 with a slight chance of sneaking
    to 97. We shall see.

    Norwood and Bedford currently at 97.

    1. Hmmm then I look at the 16Z HRRR and it has Boston at an even 100 at
      21Z or 5PM. We shall see.

  32. Boston’s current heat index 105, far cry from the 115 touted by the NWS yesterday.
    Typical.

  33. Still mostly sunny here but starting to see some high thin cirrus clouds spreading in from the northwest.

    2. From Jpdave yesterday at 5:19 PM:
      Pretty amazing. Wonder why the NAMS are off?
      Do they see something that others have missed?

      Wondering if yesterday’s NAM was right about today?

      2. JMA, SAK, and myself have cautioned about using GFS temperature forecasts, but the media went right ahead and did the SAME thing they did all summer last summer. NAM’s short range forecasts are fairly good (not perfect but decent). What you saw on them was a more accurate representation of the result of the parameters I have been talking about (wind direction/speed, moisture, and debris cloudiness) that would prevent astronomical temperatures from occurring, but as usual, real meteorological information gets hidden behind all the hype.

        Has the lesson been learned? I highly doubt it. Will it ever be? Not anytime soon.

        It’s so obvious that so many are just using model #’s for their forecasts. Come on fellow mets, don’t lose the science part of what we do, ok?

        1. Or is it corporate which means there is no lesson to be learned, just big business that we feed more money on a regular basis. Hmmmmm, as type, I wonder if that is the true lesson to be learned.

          1. I’m referring to them. I wish the media mets would stand up together and fight it.

    1. Nah. The water has already been warm near the eastern New England coast because of the circulation pattern the last few months.

  37. Thank you, TK.

    It’s hot and it’s uncomfortable outside. But you’d think a nuclear disaster was going to happen if you watched the news last night. Hyped to the max.

    Mark, enjoy your ride around the Block.

    2. It always is hyped both winter & summer . It’s the end of July it’s supposed to be hot . I love it more please !!

      1. True, SSK. It is indeed supposed to be hot, just as it’s supposed to be cold in January, 6 months from now.

        I’m glad you like it.

        1. I do I hate the cold Joshua. I would not have liked working outside in it today though .

    3. As I listen to reports, it seems there is real concern about people during this heat. I think a lot of folks are at risk. I can sure see how it would seem like hype if you listen to multiple sources, but maybe it’s because they are all saying the same thing…..hydrate, watch for pets, most importantly check on neighbors ….especially elderly, etc. From multiple sources, it can sure be overkill; but I’m not sure how you reach everyone. The majority of people, I would guess, listen to one station and run with it. Just a thought.

      1. I think it just comes down to common sense . If out in it hydrate & sunscreen is a must , I’ve been drinking water all day but that’s normal for me . For the folks who know they can’t deal with it for whatever reason they need to just stay inside & ride it out & hopefully come out unscathed.

        1. Maybe. However, in our society, we sadly need to be reminded to look our after others.

          Many of the folks who cannot deal with it are the elderly or those who may be homeless or those unable to afford an ac or get to a shelter. The danger is that the nights are giving no relief.

  43. I was surprised to see that thunderstorm pop in CT today. I thought there would be a cap in the atmosphere preventing a thunderstorm from developing.

  44. 18z NAM doing what NAM typically does going way overboard with some of the severe parameters on Tuesday including supercell composite and significant tornado parameter.

  45. The 18z NAM did not initialize properly. There is not a bunch of precipitation across SNE as of 19z. Toss the entire thing and wait for 00z.

  51. The dp’s have risen to 75F – 77F this evening.

    Temps are going to struggle to fall much at all.

    Perhaps these Eastern NY storms can make it here and offer some kind of cooling.

  52. Vicki, the record warmth in June you read about is an aggregate of temperatures around the globe. Boston and vicinity did not experience record warmth in June, at least not that I know of.

    July is shaping up to be a very warm month in Boston and vicinity. But, I do not believe it will be close to being the warmest on record. Perhaps in the top 5 and certainly the top 10 is a possibility.

  53. Nice little pulsing t storm overhead at the moment. A few rumbles of thunder, but mostly a heavy rain with a constant wind bringing down some cooler air. Ahhhhh refreshing!!!!! Plus giving the garden a nice drink. I am kind of surprised at the constant wind and it’s speed.

  55. Heads up Vicki, unless it dies down this heavy rain maker is heading for you. Maybe a tad north of you. I hope you get it, because it dropped the temp about 10 degrees in 15 min. Wife and I are sitting out on the screen porch instead of the ac, enjoying the storm. 🙂

  61. I don’t know whether to look out north or south facing side. This is awesome. My friend in Sutton who celebrates a bday today and loves weather ,,,,,wow

    1. Half an inch in 14 minutes. SC wasn’t kidding about a ton of rain. A nice lightning display as well. I turned the AC back on but may rethink that. Still some leftover T and L

  66. Seems to be a lot of action heading east from the Berkshire. That wasn’t forecasted was it? How will it affect tomorrow’s max heat potential?

  68. 94-98 did well for a SNE forecast today. Someday I will learn to read models better….instead of forecasting sensible weather outcomes.

    Tomorrow could sneak past today’s highs in parts of SNE.

    1. Why on earth would you want to apply meteorology?! The #’s are there. All you have to do is copy them and then send out tweets about it being the end of the world. 😉

      Seriously though…

      I saw someone post a photo on FB of some people playing in a fountain in Boston and the caption was “trying to stay cool while North America cooks in a historic heatwave” …

      North America? Historic? How about, wrong…and wrong…

      But I do agree, Sunday’s temps may be up a touch from Saturday’s.

  69. Re: T-storms.
    No they were not forecast to occur that far east. The ones making it to the Berkshires did not really surprise me as some of the guidance had hinted at that. The ones that made it into south central MA were a bit more of a surprise in the analytical sense, but their existence can be easily explained. I just didn’t think the set of events to kick them off would take place, and they did. This will have no impact on Sunday’s weather as all the cloudiness will have dissipated and not left behind much of any debris.

  70. The NAM is grumpy. Now it wants to take away the good weather for Monday PM, Tuesday, AND Wednesday. Every run is a bit more doom & gloom than the one before it.

    The GFS is slightly less nasty about things.

    But you can see the trend is to deepen the trough and hold it further west as a series of short-waves drop into it, and a little more ridging in the Atlantic, which usually makes us tropical, would actually screw us over by holding the trough to the west and making it cooler and unsettled for more than half of the Monday-Friday period. Then it all reverses and summer comes back next weekend.

    A bit of evidence that the heat dome which goes to the West for a while may try to come back east for a little while the first few days of August. I have a nice 4-day weekend August 1-4 which takes me to the coast for a good part of it.

  71. LOGAN’S LOW WAS 83 I believe and at this hour it is 84 with dp 70.
    And it is bright and Sunny to boot. From my vantage point, I can’t even see a cloud.
    Both JMA and TK said today’s temps could be up a notch.
    Is 100 possible today? yesterday was BRUTAL!!! It was up to 92 in the non-cooled
    rooms in the house. Just awful!!!!

    1. Dew point is already coming down as expected. It’s already 4 lower than forecast for this hour.

Comments are closed.