Monday Forecast

142 Comments

7:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)
The heat’s gone, and the humidity is down a couple notches, although technically it will still be humid early this week. We don’t get a true push of dry Canadian air until the 3rd of 3 wave of low pressure ride along a front just to the south of the region, and that won’t happen until Wednesday. We basically get one a day for the next 3 days, the first bringing a fairly widespread area of showers and thunderstorms later today into tonight, the second bringing another round favoring areas a little further south in MA/CT/RI Tuesday, and the third keeping the wet weather mainly to the south except possibly clipping the islands early Wednesday. It is the first one that will have the greatest impact, with some potential road flooding due to heavier rainfall of up to 2 or 3 inches in a some locations, and the potential for a few embedded strong storms. We’ll now-cast that with radar during the afternoon and evening today. By later in the week, high pressure will be back in control with great summer weather!
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms arriving this afternoon, especially Boston to Providence corridor northwestward. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms, with the area sinking to the southeast then diminishing from southwest to northeast later in the evening. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely along with a risk of a few thunderstorms, favoring southeastern MA, CT, RI. Humid. Highs 70-77. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87 but may cool back to 70s coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89 but a little cooler coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)
The final 5 days of July will be like … July. Kind of a typical summer pattern. Some heat and humidity builds in when we get to the weekend although at this time it looks like high pressure will keep the chance of thunderstorms away or extremely limited, and we will not likely see heat to the degree we did this past weekend. The last few days of the month, with a weak front in the vicinity, may see more in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)
Some fairly hot and humid weather looks like it may be in the offing to start August off as the jet stream lifts to the north and a flat ridge of high pressure dominates. We will evaluate the risk for any showers and thunderstorms as these days get closer.

142 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Walking to the office from the parking lot, it felt like yesterday.
    We can’t get rid of this CRAP!!!

  6. Well, we do have a NE with dp 63. That IS and improvement, even if it didn’t
    feel that way to me. Let’s get the NE wind freshening up some more!!

    1. Are you home? Or did you just arrive at beach Saturday? I seem to have completely lost my frame of reference.

      1. Hey Vicki just arrived Saturday here till Saturday so I have all week . Think I’m heading to beach soon it’s warm & a little birdie told me I’m good till at least 4pm . Fishing trip Thursday morning

  9. I saw that. The latest SREF still highlighting CT, RI and eastern, MA in that low tornado risk chance.

  10. Awful fire, multiple buildings from what I can tell, in downtown Natick. Dave? I seem to recall it is you who lives in Natick?

    2. I am not sure it affected multiple buildings ….there were eight businesses in the one building.

    1. Ugh. That sure includes you and Mark. Close to here and I’ll be happy if we remain out of that area. Thank you, JJ.

            1. Thanks, Dave. Why did I think you were going to say that. I better stop talking. I may jinx us into something no one wants.

  12. The SREF to me does a good job at sniffing out areas of possible tornadic storms. I am surprised the SPC removed the 2% tornado chance. Will see if it is put in when the SPC outlook for today gets updated after 12pm.

  14. This is where Ryan Hanrahan thinks the areas to watch for the storms today
    With a warm front draped over the region and a low moving in from the southwest that tends to be a good setup for severe weather. I’d watch C NJ through NYC and S CT for a zone of enhanced severe weather threat. Always watch the warm front and triple point this time of year.

  18. Not impressed with severe potential up this way (boston), but precip totals
    look rather impressive.

  20. was drizzling and now steady moderate rain

    Now will that lessen the chance of severe weather ?????

  21. Its looking like southern CT, RI, and southeast MA have the best odds of severe weather later on. In a tweet I posted earlier from Ryan Hanrahan he thinks central NJ NYC southern CT are the areas to watch where an enhanced severe weather threat.

    1. I sent your link to my son and his GF who are in upstate RI. I appreciate your updates as well.

  26. With the latest discussions from NWS Boston there thinking CT RI the best shot at strong to severe storms. They also mentioned the latest HREF 12z run increased the high helicity potential further increasing confidence we may see rotating storms.

  28. Multiple things to watch.

    Of course, the severe weather threat in SW Connecticut.

    Those heavy storms developing in eastern PA and eventually further southeast are likely to move northeastward and provide very heavy rains to some in southern New England this evening.

  29. 0.06 inch of rain with 1st small batch of showers to move through.

    I’ll bet the most prone areas for severe are south, perhaps well south, of the northern extent of that watch. We shall see.

    Some pretty potent storms just west of NYC. Even looks like a bit of rotation.

  30. SPC did mention in the severe thunderstorm watch that a tornado or two was possible.
    There is a severe thunderstorm warning for northwestern parts of NJ.

  32. JPDave thanks for posting that. I’ll be watching the movement of that one as it gets closer to CT.

  33. The storm currently has a severe thunderstorm warning. JPDave good catch with that rotation. Some of the text with that warning.
    Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage.

  34. Same wording with that text with that severe thunderstorm warning now up until 4:45pm for Fairfield Northwestern New Haven County

  36. Mark looks like the line is trying to bow out a little bit. There have been some circulations on the line but not enough to trigger a tornado warning.

  38. There extending the warning out to include more of New Haven and some of Middlesex County. Upton, NY thinks this will maintain strength.

    2. Surprised Albany didn’t expand the warning into southeast Litchfield County. Southern Hartford County should be next to get warned.

  42. All I am getting here some rumbles flashes of lightning. No gusty winds but heavy rainfall.

  43. NHC score card so far this season…

    Andrea: Not worth naming. It wasn’t tropical.
    Barry: Was called a hurricane at landfall. Was NOT a hurricane anytime during its life.
    TD 3: Not a TD. It’s a cluster of showers with pretty much no circulation.

    So far, they are batting 0.000 … DISAPPOINTING.

      1. I don’t know what they are trying to do down there but I have NEVER seen it this bad. I’m actually pretty pissed off. Even if I contact them they won’t care. Yay gov’t.

        1. But if you don’t contact them, you are spitting into the wind. I suspect you have a fair amount of friends in the business who can write to them

  45. Now Flash Flooding Warning for Fairfield County as it looks like were seeing training of these thunderstorms.

  46. Loving the looks of this radar at least for where I am. This should be good for a few inches of rain which my lawn desperately needs!

  47. I seem to be hearing some low rumbles. Not sure from where. I know I have lightning about 10 miles away, but everything looks east or south

    1. Same here, we have had some heavy rain, rumbles of thunder and I have seen a few flashes but nothing to write home about. Very little wind too.

      Interesting to look up at the sky and see those low dark gray clouds streaming from east to west while the echoes on the radar are streaming in the opposite direction: southwest to northeast. No denying we have a favorable environment for shear.

  49. Raining steadily in Swampscott at least for the moment.

    Red Sox of last year are playing tonight.

    1. Don’t fall for it. Red Sox are DONE for the postseason. Time to look forward to Patriots training camp this week! 🙂

      Although Julian Edelman will miss many weeks of camp. That is disturbing.

  50. Darned I’d i can figure what this is coming from but that was one crack and boom with thunder literally on top of lightning

  51. out in this. we had to go out.
    nice light show for sure. most of the rain not all that hard. Not impressed.

      1. yup. currently in westwood near the 128 train station. lightning popping all around and I am stuck in Target.

  55. Drove, white knuckles thru a thunderstorm (nighttime lightning : my favorite) near the Pembroke/Hanson line with blinding rain.

    That passed by and now in Marshfield with lightning increasing in the southern sky as the next line approaches.

  57. Rockin’ and rollin’ down here!
    Haven’t had a storm like this in a long time.
    Couple of dozen lightning strikes!

    1. Enjoy !?!?!? 🙂

      Thankfully, I think we are missing that lightning core.

      Hope your summer is going well Captain !

        1. NWS reported possible rotation around Westport
          at 9:06. Lull now. Looks like round 2 moving in
          from Providence/Attleboro. Just very heavy rain.
          Little/no lightning.

      1. Started with camping in PA which was awesome with all the state parks and rivers.

        At home, it’s been relaxing and getting my youngest to dance camp and mixing in trips to the beach and pools.

  60. With the severe thunderstorm warnings and marine warnings near buzzards bay, it currently looks like a toddler was given a pencil and told to scribble over the NWS radar.

          1. It’s hard to see, but the yellow boxes are there on the southern end.

            Another intense batch of rain headed for south shore, but without the severe criteria.

        1. She said it is wild. Something may have hit nearby.

          How often do we see tornado warned areas over cape

          1. In the last few years, I believe a couple of occasions. These are radar indicated, I don’t know that any have made it to the ground and hopefully this one won’t.

            What the Cape has had is prolific rain events in the last 5 to 10 yrs during summers.

            1. She said they had one last year. Falmouth to mashpee sandwich I think. All seems fine there now. I hate these things at night

  62. If I’m reading Eric’s radar correct, the rotation would be btwn Hyannis and South Yarmouth, where there is a red and green couplet. It does not look tight at all.

  63. Less important but still noteworthy, it is pouring in eastern Mass. rain amounts are going to add up quickly.

  64. Warning allowed to expire.

    Another 100 miles north on this set-up today and southeast New England would have been in the sunny, 90s weather that NYC south had and we would have had the severe storms that hit NYC points south. As it was, we still managed some pretty good thunderstorms.

  65. At 1021 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
    tornado was located over Harwich, or near Brewster, moving
    northeast at 40 mph.

  66. Absolutely crazy night. Nothing worrisome here but hours of lightning and thunder. But wow on the cape.

    We have 0.91 rain which I think is piddly compared to other locations

  69. JR is on vacation in truro. He said no wind there. But a lot of lightning. He has not heard reports of wind damage but doesn’t mean there is not any

  70. That very short range HRRR model, I find, to be really good. Or at least tonight, it was really good.

    The projected radar shots from the 6pm shows for 10pm tonight, compared to what the radar looked like at 10pm was extremely accurate, location, intensity and speed wise.

  71. Worst thunderstorm I’ve ever experienced here in NJ this evening. I was working at the time, but saw what was going on outside. Winds gusted probably 60-70mph. Entire towns are littered with downed trees, limbs, and wires. Hundreds of thousands without power. It was really something.

    1. Hoping no serious injuries and the coming of better weather for cleanup and restoration of power.

    2. Were you concerned heading into the afternoon with all the sun you got and temps getting into the 90s ?

      1. We’d been watching today’s potential for days, and yes, we had a lot of concern going into the afternoon. The amount of sunshine and morning heating was a surprise. We knew it was the real deal when Wilmington, DE measured a 78mph wind gust. The storms never really lost much steam from there right to the NJ coast. Not much thunder or lightning, but a wall of wind unlike any I’d seen.

        Thankfully, much cooler weather is on the way here tomorrow. There will still be many people without power so that would not have been good at all in concert with another 90+ degree day. And looks like no more storms for several days at least.

    1. Once in a while we get a season where we don’t need to help much. I’ve watered the least I have in a while this season. It can turn on a dime though, but to make it to late July this way is not something we see too often.

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