Monday Forecast

87 Comments

6:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29-AUGUST 2)
High pressure off the East Coast brings heat and humidity to start this week. Both today and Tuesday will carry risk of pop up afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though that risk will be fairly small for any given area, and will favor southern MA southward today, and areas well west and north of Boston Tuesday. On Wednesday, the heat will be down a notch due to more cloudiness, but the humidity will be high, and the shower/thunderstorm risk will go up for all areas as a cold front approaches. This front will pass through the region by early Thursday and after a few lingering showers possible to start that day, the first couple days of August will feature seasonably warm weather with a lowering of humidity levels as high pressure builds in from southern Canada and the Great Lakes.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Humid. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms, favoring areas near and south of I-90. Highs 86-93. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated mid to late afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring central MA and southern NH. Humid. Highs 86-93. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms, especially afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a risk of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers early morning, favoring southeastern MA. Less humid. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 58-65. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest along the shore. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)
August 3-4 weekend looks typical mid summer with very warm, somewhat humid weather. There will be a risk of isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms August 3 but a slightly greater chance of isolated to scattered activity August 4 as a dissipating front moves into the area. Weak high pressure should bring dry weather August 5 before another front moves into the region with more cloudiness at times and a risk of some shower and thunderstorm activity by later August 6 into August 7.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)
High pressure from the Upper Midwest brings fair, pleasant weather to start the period then a gradual build in humidity and some heat thereafter with a risk of showers/thunderstorms returning later in the period.

87 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thanks, TK. I seem to recall we had a minor thunder storm just a I was falling asleep. Although, I could have also dreamed it. I don’t see any rain on the gauge.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Yet another work week begins. Time appears to be in warp drive!!!!

    All I can say is YUCK! again. I couldn’t even get my socks on this morning that’s how wet the air is. DISGUISTING!!!

    1. Oh well. Either I can’t spell at all OR I have numb fingers and can’t type!!!!!

      DISGUISTING => DISGUSTING

      1. I kind of like disguisting…….what is it disguisting as would be the question of the day though.

        1. I am overreacting to this weather because what it does to my wife. She is basically house-bound in this weather, living in a few AC rooms feeling physically sick the whole damn time!!

          She is so sensitive to the humidity that she can tell the instant it tics upward. Dew Point of 60 starts the trouble. Get above 65 and FUGETTABOUTIT.

          I don’t like the humidity, but I can deal with it. She cannot.

          So, I guess that is why I BITCH about it. Sorry.

          1. I fully understand and I would do the exact same. The word deguisting just caught my attention….it is an interesting non word. I did know what you meant.

            And there is never a reason to apologize. I wish we could make it go away for your wife and for everyone that this impacts.

  7. Looks as if we may have the hottest July on record.

    https://imgur.com/a/bDwliOB

    Bradley also

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    ·
    19h
    Day 16 this month to reach or surpass 90F at Bradley. Should tie record tomorrow, break it Tuesday, maybe add to it Wednesday. Also will finish hottest or 2nd hottest July on record.

    1. It is amazing the difference lower dew points make. Surely, not for those who struggle with this, though!

  8. Thanks TK!

    While I have some questions about data quality, it appears Boston is going to have its warmest July on record, and by extension, the warmest month in its recorded history. I do believe the ASOS there tends to run a little warm, and most of the other nearby climate sites (i.e. Worcester, Providence) are solidly above average but not close to all time record territory. Hartford also has a good shot at its warmest July/month, however. So any way you slice it, this has been a very warm month, among the warmest we’ve seen in the region. There are rumblings, though it will take weeks until data is final/QC’d, that July 2019 will go down as Earth’s hottest month on record.

    1. I bet July 2020 will break the record for this current year. It seems the temps get hotter every year. Global warming/climate change is now out of our hands. It is up to the planet Earth to decide.

    2. I was thinking about data quality….which should surprise no one 😉 I’ve heard rumblings about Boston for years. I know that each year this decade has broken records…..better yet, tumbled records. So if Boston is off this year, it was off last and the one before it and the one before it and….well, I suspect you get my point. So still comparing apples to apples. Fuzzy logic perhaps, but ……

      WxW, do you know if there has been any attempt to validate Logan’s gauges?

      1. Not as far as I know, though I can’t be sure. I haven’t noticed any changes in trends with how it behaves. It’s not off by a huge margin; while I think a major climate site like that should receive more frequent routine calibrations, the readings are probably still within tolerance.

  9. At least this summer we are getting breaks from the humidity. Last summer the breaks from the humidity were few and far between.

      2. I believe it’s dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

        I posted it because, as TK noted above in just forecast, I think this validates believing storms will be Mass Pike southward where the best moisture is in the entire column.

  11. Philip looks like after Wednesday we get a break from the humidity for a couple of days.
    Thursday is August 1st and to me its a five and half weeks left where you could get consistent heat and humidity. To me once we get past September 10th the heat and humidity don’t having the staying power just like cold weather and snow on the ground in March.

  13. It looks to me as if this “drier air” mentioned above, has mixed down to the surface some
    as Logan’s DP is down to 64????

  14. For last year…..

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    ·
    2h
    I do wonder how last year impacts perception of this year. Hottest Aug on rec, 4th hottest summer, 4th hottest Sept, most humid on record, 10th hottest July, etc

    1. I think it’s been the humidity and how it’s affected the nighttime temps.

      On many of the days with very warm afternoons, the 60F dewpoints have allowed it to drop back to the low 60s in suburbia. Meanwhile, the heat island of Logan airport is 10F warmer.

      So, I do think rural areas probably haven’t had their warmest July, including nights, but urban heat islands might have by retaining a lot of the heat from a very warm July daytime.

      1. I suddenly see a yellow and red echo in boston, north side of city. Intensified some for sure.

  16. Thank goodness for the EURO.

    Watching the 12z run and comparing it to the 12z GFS.

    Actually, they have the same features, but the EURO is not so deep with its trofs and dips in the jet stream.

    The 12z GFS run looks like it belongs to mid September, where the 12z EURO looks like something one might expect to see in early August.

    1. Um Uh umm… Let me take a wild stab at this.
      I’d venture to say about where the southern edge of the clouds are. 🙂

  18. New cell just popped West of Dover. Heading this way. We shall see. Would be nice
    for it to cook enough to provide some cooling down drafts.

  19. A little cell is dancing over Sutton. I hear some not too distant thunder and we seem to have sporadic rain.

  20. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    oh, sorry, that storm was so exciting that I dozed off.

    Apparently, it may intensify AFTER it passes us.

    1. I see a lot of red and orange on radar out your way. Did it thread the needle to miss you?

      1. I just saw that also but only got one warning of lightning w/i 5 miles. I think it split around us. We are getting some rain now. I thought i heard a bit of what could be small hail on window.

  21. Just ordered a Davis Instruments 6250 Davis Vantage Vue Wireless Weather Station
    for my upcoming birthday.

    I think that the VERY SUNNY 2nd floor deck/porch location (deck on top of asphalt) of my Accurite has FRIED the instruments over time. Highly inaccurate temp, dp and humidity readings now. Extremely aggravating!!

    This time I have ordered a special tripod and I will install in the back yard.
    Wind data won’t be perfect, but everything else should be AOK.

    We shall see.

    1. That is interesting. I’ll be anxious to hear how you do. I’m wondering about the sun having damaged mine also.

  22. New cell popping just East of Framingham. That one should come closer to me, but
    still may slip to my South. Will be watching. 🙂

    1. Just caught the very Northern Fringe of that one. It smells like rain in the house, not enough to create puddles. 🙂

      1. That didn’t sound right. Not puddles in the house, not enough rain to produce puddles outside. 🙂

        1. hahahahaha – but it did make me smile. I probably would not have noticed had you not corrected.

        1. Feels like would simply be “death”. That’s like the dewpoint inside of a lobster pot 🙂

            1. That’d probably scald the hell out of you too though you might survive a few seconds longer 🙂

  27. Looks like the convection behaved generally as anticipated today.

    Still thinking tomorrow’s threat will be late day and evening and generally far north and west of Boston.

  28. As of yesterday, some snow still remained in Tuckerman’s Ravine as well as on the east slope of Mt. Jefferson. So close to making it to August, but probably wont with the toasty weather the next few days….

    Ryan Knapp
    @WXKnapper

    Tuckerman Ravine seasonal snow meltout 2019 update (pictured from July 24th and 28th from our @MWObs @skiwildcat webcam)

    Looks like one patch is gone and the snow bridge has collapsed. Its days are numbered now. #nhwx #mountain #snow

    https://twitter.com/WXKnapper/status/1155666890905309185?s=20

  31. Cape Cod so far this year is the only area of SNE to see tornadoes. You don’t normally see severe weather on the Cape as most times the air is stable there and that tends to weaken thunderstorms that come that way.

    1. The reason the cape saw those tornadoes was because that was a large long-lived supercell associated with a small low pressure circulation. The stability factor didn’t really play into this.

      we have had more events like this than we realized because we kept missing them 10+ years ago with inferior radar.

  32. Such a shame that Boston will be recorded as having their warmest July on record erroneously.

    There should not be a margin of error that’s acceptable either.

    The temperature is the temperature. if the instrument is not properly calibrated then it is not recording the actual temperature, period.

  33. I’m glad Eric Fisher acknowledged the fact that inferior radar etc lead to missed tornadoes in the past.

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