Thursday Forecast

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)
Humidity will remain high today, the cause of areas of fog and low clouds to start, and the trigger of a few showers and thunderstorms later, as we won’t see a cold front pass by the area until the early hours of Friday. Any of the thunderstorms that develop, especially the ones this afternoon, will have the capability of producing heavy rain, brief hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning, but please note that while this activity can arrive and depart quickly, the vast majority of the region won’t see it (coverage will be fairly low). The shower coverage area may increase tonight as a weak wave of low pressure traverses the front, during tonight, before we finally see clearing and drying Friday. The atmospheric set-up is favorable for cooler weather this weekend and Monday, but it will also resemble somewhat of a block, with high pressure stronger to the north and elongated low pressure (northeast to southwest) settling just south of New England while weakening. This allows a dry northerly air flow for Saturday, but then allows the wind to turn more easterly Sunday-Monday, which will set up a contrast between coastal and inland areas, where the coastal areas (and some distance inland as well) prone to areas of low clouds and fog at times, while inland areas that may see patchy fog at night will enjoy sunshine more abundantly each of those 2 days, though high cloudiness may be on the increase by later Monday due to the timing of the next large scale system moving from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of low clouds/fog early morning. Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any storms.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers with possible thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with lingering showers eastern and southern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Clearing midday-afternoon. Drying out. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 55-62. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. More sun inland. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. Partly cloudy with patchy fog inland. Lows 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny with areas of fog coast. Mostly sunny inland. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind light E.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)
Lower confidence on this period, the final 5 days of August, as we start out with low pressure tracking south of the region, probably far enough to avoid a solid rain event, but possibly close enough for unsettled weather, then a transition to a more southerly air flow with higher humidity but a frontal boundary to the west with a shower/thunderstorm risk for the balance of the period. This outlook will probably change and at least will be in need of some serious fine-tuning.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
The differences between various medium range guidance are fairly remarkable for this time of year for the early part of September, which can often lead a forecaster to great confusion. When this happens, I tend to persist with the previous forecast, and for the early part of September this is above average temperatures, fairly humid air, and a few opportunities for showers/thunderstorms between a broad trough in the Great Lakes and high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, but again not the highest confidence forecast with many tweaks to come.

74 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK. No damage here but lost power for about 3 hours from the lightning hitting a transformer.

  2. Thanks, TK! Your round-by-round analysis was spot-on, amigo!

    Mark, I guess you’re the undisputed champion with the coveted WHW belt with yesterday’s action!!!! 🙂

    Wow, what a day! Congratulations on capturing it all on media for posterity and thanks for sharing it with us! So glad you and yours are safe. Hopefully you can take a breather today!!!

    There must be wall of kryptonite around Taunton West this summer as everything has died out or moved to the left or right. North, I could see the light show from your area from my west-facing deck.

    Happy 80th Birthday today, Yaz. Lil Yaz hit his 17th home run last night for his grandpa’s special day.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q62AUM08nzM

    Enjoy the day, everyone!!!

  3. Good Morning and thank you, TK.

    Wonderful news that all are safe. Mark – wow. I second everything Captain said. North, you had quite a storm also. I am still amazed at how vivid the lightning was here from so far away. Speaks volumes for what it was like in those areas!

  4. Good morning and thank you TK for that well written detailed forecast.

    Wild day for you Mark. Happy all is well.

    Question for TK and/or WxWatcher re: NWS tornado warnings

    As you have mentioned, in the past the NWS would have missed these possible
    tornadic storms until after the fact. With the new equipment, I think they have
    experienced some growing pains. I remember with the Revere tornado, they were
    a tad late with the warning as it was already on the ground even perhaps dissipated already. In other words they waited until the doppler indicated rotation was
    undeniably tight enough for a tornado to be there.

    Now advance several years. In the interest of public safety, I think the NWS pulls the trigger on the warnings at the first sign of discernible (read that as not broad) rotation
    with the idea it “could” tighten up enough for a tornado. Better safe than sorry.
    I believe that is what we witnessed yesterday. And it was really close as there
    was at least 1 and perhaps 2 funnel cloud sightings.

    On radar, the only one I saw that really really looked interesting was the one
    last evening over Glastonbury, CT. I understand I am not a trained professional
    on this, but I have been watching the rotation on these storms for years. For the
    others, the rotation just didn’t seem tight enough to me. (my analog is the rotation
    signature from the Revere tornado and secondarily the Cape ones this year. None of
    yesterday’s save for the Glastonbury approached those signatures imho.)

    I would be most interested in your thoughts.

    Many thanks

    1. Sorry, I meant to add that distance from the radar plays a factor here
      as the farther away any rotation would be higher up in the storm system, as it would be different than closer to the ground. So I don’t know how much
      this played into the warning issuance.

      By the way, I want to be clear that the warnings were absolutely justified
      as a tornado was certainly possible, if not at the time of the warning, but
      soon thereafter.

      Tricky business to be sure and I wouldn’t want to be the one making the
      warning/no warning decision.

  5. Thanks TK !

    I recognize that a trof and not a cold front went by yesterday. It sure is brutal out there this morning.

    1. Marshfield is reporting a dew point of 77 !!!!!

      72 at Logan, but 74 at Blue Hill and 73 at Norwood.

      BRUTAL indeed!!!

      1. Yeah, I think Marshfield’s dp is always reporting a bit too high, but low to mid 70s is nasty enough.

        Walking out the front door, it fealt like hitting a wall of thick, hot mist.

        1. Agree!

          I can’t understand why there wouldn’t be convection
          with the approaching front with these dew points???

          HRRR shows nothing until that little wave passes along the front tonight.

          Seems to me something should ignite.

          1. Perhaps lacking lift ?

            I wonder if that convergence of the more S sfc wind around buzzards bay and the WSW to SW wind in the providence to Boston corridor might help to ignite something from Hingham area southwestward to New Bedford and points south and east.

            1. Well, I do believe that the front itself
              “should” provide some lift as it should be
              forcing the warm humid air upwards as
              it pushes into it. No?
              “Should” be enough to at least ignite
              something, even if not the scale of
              yesterday.

              My lawn needs a drink and I am too
              lazy to water. I want some rain.

              Yesterday’s paltry 0.12 inch didn’t do
              much. 🙂 🙂 🙂

              Storms to the North of us, storms to the South of us and stuck in the middle!

  6. The improved radar technology must be a double edged sword.

    Of course, the positive is seeing rotation in a thunderstorm that couldn’t be seen before.

    The negative is the human factor of interpretation and when that translates to a warning.

    I’d think being in New England is also a wild card factor. As our mets are more experienced in diagnosing the evolution of a snowstorm than mets down in the mid and Deep South, I’d think mets in the mid west and southern US have more experience interpreting radar signatures than mets in the northeast.

    As you said JpDave, very tough call and very big responsibility on tornado warnings.

    1. Agreed. In fairness, I do believe that our NWS folks have done a decent
      job with the tornado warnings. I’d rather a warning for a possibility rather than
      them waiting until it was too late. Better to have some false alarms, than
      have one missed.

      Really tough balancing act and I am sure the general public has no
      clue as to what is involved in these decisions.

      I just hope we don’t get any of the “cry wolf” syndrome and have the public
      Ignore these warnings.

      We all know that these warnings are more there “c0uld” be a tornado rather than there IS a tornado. The public on the other hand hears that
      warning and believes there is a confirmed tornando on the ground.
      Big difference in my opinion.

      I wonder IF the wording of the warning could be different????

      Something like Radar indicates that there is a possible tornado, therefore
      take cover as a precaution or something along those lines.
      Then IF they receive some sort of confirmation from a spotter or law
      enforcement or other, then update the warning to include
      confirmed tornado on the ground.

      again very very tough situation for the folks at the NWS offices.

      I think they did great yesterday as all were worthy of the warning even if
      no tornado actually materialized (at least not that I know if at the moment)

  7. Thanks TK!
    I agree 100% Jp Dave. As the technology changes and improves, so should the warning systems. Unfortunately with something as complex as weather it’s not always a one size fits all scenario. They have in the last decade made changes as to how wind chill is calculated, and also revamped the Fujita scale, why not the warning systems?

  8. FROM Norton NWS office:

    Moisture, instability, and low-level convergence along/ahead of
    a cold front…plus increasing upper divergence with the
    approaching upper jet. This favors development of
    showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Favored
    location would be CT-RI-Eastern MA, but all areas could see
    precipitation develop.

  9. NWS has backed of a bit on convection:

    Cold front
    across northern portions of NY/VT/NH will move south today but
    prefrontal winds will be west-southwest. This will begin to dry
    out the boundary layer which will lower dew pts and lower CAPEs.
    So trending less humid this afternoon with highest CAPEs up to
    1500 j/kg focusing across RI and southeast MA. This will limit
    potential for any strong storms to this area. In addition as
    winds veer to the west to southwest winds this will limit low
    level convergence. So in a nutshell not expecting convection to
    be as widespread or severe as yesterday.

  10. I did some reading on radar and tornado prediction a couple of weeks ago. TK prompted it with the mention of a spin-up tornado on FB. I’d never heard of one. I had heard of a gustnado which is apparently the same thing. But this describes the failing of radars from a distance and tornadoes close to ground. I don’t know this individual so not sure how accurate he is either.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=La0AVKpoe8k

  11. Jpdave do you have a link for current surface CAPE values qnd dew points?

    There is alot of cumulus clouds everywhere and plentu of sunshine and shear is strong so you would think we will get a storm goong.. I think its the dry air that is killing us amd poor lapse rates

  12. I was watxhing this cumulinmbous clous in wakefield growing vertically then bamm its gone. all the towers seems to be choking. CAP? or maybe too dry upstairs

  13. Convection today just about as expected, where expected, and when expected. That is our front settling through and what is on it is isolated because there is limited good forcing. It just occurs in some locations, perhaps as a result of a combination of topography or another air boundary interacting with the front.

    After that activity moves away we will have to watch for some showers and possible thunderstorms this evening and overnight with a little ripple of low pressure coming along the boundary. You can already see the activity in Pennsylvania and New York.

  14. JP Dave…

    It is true that we certainly have a fighting chance of detecting (mainly EF0-1) tornadoes today that we couldn’t 10-20+ years ago. That can lead to more warnings than you would’ve gotten before.

    Tornado warnings are still rare though, especially in New England. The average person in SNE may be under one tornado warning, say, every two years. It’s for that reason, and the amount of damage even a short lived tornado can do, that from a conceptual standpoint I’d rather err on the side of having a couple extra false alarms if it means a couple more successes and fewer missed events. With severe thunderstorm warnings, I do think the balance may have tilted a bit too far in the “cya” direction. However, I also believe there are strong regional considerations and that in this part of the country, if a forecaster believes a storm is likely to produce 50mph wind gusts, to go ahead and issue the warning even if it isn’t technically “severe.”

    Lastly, as I’m sure is obvious, the decision to issue a tornado warning is not made lightly. It is probably the most drastic action an NWS office can take. And it almost entirety comes down to forecaster judgement and skill. It can’t be automated, not with where the science is now. I thought NWS Boston did a really good job yesterday. Any day you get classic cyclic supercells in SNE- that is to say, once or twice a year- you shouldn’t be taking too many chances.

    1. I think they should drop the criteria for wind down to something lower than 58 MPH. Damage can occur at speeds much lower than that these days, especially with the aged forest of trees we live in. I wonder if they’d consider it.

      I totally got not being able to do it for lightning, because even a benign thunderstorm can produce a period of intense lightning. All people should be aware of that danger at all times.

    2. Given the rarity of tornado warnings, I guess I should feel privileged that I was under two different ones in a one hour span yesterday!

      1. Ha. Only here would you find the word privileged in connection to two tornado warned areas.

        I love it

  15. Btwn the upcoming onshore flow and this entity (subtropical system?) on the euro around hrs 120-144, perhaps some good surf early next week ….

  16. WxW, thank you for answering JP Dave’s question. I had been tied up with some health insurance red tape today. Finally got that figured out!

  17. Just had a 30 minute burst of moderate rain and wind here in Manchester CT. Blues skies emerging again…

    Here are the final rainfall reports from yesterday. Go figure that South Manchester was at the top of the list with nearly 5 inches of rain and all of that fell within a 5 hour span from the 4 consecutive thunderstorms:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    Damage reports:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    Half of the list is from Manchester and there is virtually nothing else from CT. Also interesting that there are no official “funnel cloud” reports from CT when the funnel was caught on video in 4 different towns.

    1. Classic training situation yesterday. Text book. The set up was there and the atmosphere responded.

  18. Good snow event in Alaska and northwestern Canada getting the season underway. I do believe that they will be building a snow cover across western and central Canada rather quickly and early this season.

    1. I think I like this if it helps keep western Canada and the US cook and the eastern US mild to warm into fall.

    2. Translation: Building Canadian snowpack delivers ample early winter cold to the northern US, translating to a quick start to winter and above normal snow in New England -TK

      1. You’re half right (in terms of my early thinking). I don’t think New England is going to see above normal snow this winter. Quite the opposite.

  19. TK, any thoughts on the weather next weekend in the sticks of north-central Maine? I am talking north of Bangor, almost to Millinocket. I am attending a wedding of a friend from work and it is outdoors. He and his fiancée are freaking out about the rain drops they see on their weather apps (which I have warned him about repeatedly!) Thx.

  20. Mark, for Maine are you referring to the Labor Day Weekend? If so, looks good early-on.

    As far as my brother, no damage. He just had a lot of thunderstorms………….

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