Tuesday Forecast

48 Comments

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)
High pressure brings another nice day today, then things change as humidity goes up midweek, a tropical system passes east of New England and a cold front moves through from west to east late Wednesday into Thursday. The only impact from the tropical system, which will probably be a tropical storm by the time it passes well east of the region, will be to increase the surf along the coast. The shower threat will come from mainly from the cold front. High pressure moves back in Friday with fair weather, which will hold on for most of if not all of Saturday, but we’ll have to watch for a risk of a passing shower as a trough swings through the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers possible by late-day. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing shower favoring southern NH. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
Weak fronts in the region bring shower threats sometime September 2 and 4 but much of the time will be rain-free with fair weather, dominated by high pressure. Temperatures above normal with air on the humid side for the first several days of the period then some drier air may arrive at the end of the period behind the second front.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
Pattern should be dominated by high pressure centered southwest of the region with limited shower chances and above normal temperatures.

48 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. Wow, Thanks Keith. A whole science in itself.

      A few quotes:
      TV DX and FM DX is the active search for distant radio or TV stations received during unusual atmospheric conditions. The term DX is an old telegraphic term meaning “long distance.”

      The main sources of DX reception on TV and FM are:
      sporadic-E propagation
      **tropospheric ducting**
      the ionized trails left by meteors
      F2-skip during sunspot activity

      “Tropospheric propagation refers to the way radio signals travel through the lowest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, the troposphere, at altitudes up to about to 17 km (11 miles). If a temperature inversion occurs, with upper air warmer than lower air, VHF and UHF radio waves can be refracted over the Earth’s surface instead of following a straight-line path into space or into the ground at the horizon. Tropo is rare west of the Rockies, although it does happen along the California coast. It is far more common east of the Rockies, where warm, humid air masses from the Gulf of Mexico frequently meet drier, cooler one arriving from the Northwest. Hazy, foggy, and smoggy weather is a good sign that tropo propagation is possible. Tropo is most common during spring and fall, and during extended periods of humid, windless weather in summer.”

      If I recall, temperature inversions can also cause distant sounds to seem closer. Like the train whistle or foghorns or even cobbles (rocks) rising and falling on a distant beach. Because the sound waves are being bent.

      Wikipedia has a great observation: “The development of interest in TV-FM DX as a hobby can arise after more distant signals are either intentionally or accidentally discovered, leading to a serious interest in improving the listener’s antenna and receiving installation for the purpose of actively seeking long-range television and radio reception.” LOL! I could seriously get addicted to this also if there were more time to pursue it.

      Keith, these are great resources, thanks for posting.

  3. Thanks TK.

    The first day of school today:

    Auburn
    Bourne
    Halifax
    Lowell
    Shrewsbury
    Waltham
    West Bridgewater

  5. Thanks TK.

    The setup for Wednesday evening into Thursday is kind of an interesting one. The overnight discussion from NWS Boston was a good one, but it kind of danced all around what it was trying to describe without actually saying its name: Predecessor Rain Event (PRE). I probably use that term more liberally than most, but I don’t see any reason why it’s not. As usual in these situations, there’s a wide spread in guidance on how much rain will be produced and where the maximum axis will be. The NAM certainly appears well over-cooked. But there could be a stripe of heavy rain somewhere in the region over the next 48 hours.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Hope you had an enjoyable day at 6 Flags.

    Here is an interesting graphic courtesy of Dr. Judah Cohen.

    Looks like a pretty damn warm 3 month period June-August. Most especially a warm meteorological Summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

    https://imgur.com/a/HnVXSKC

      1. Yes, indeed.

        London `shouldn’t’ be in the upper 80s/low 90s 3 days in a row in late August. Yet, that’s what’s happening right now. And that’s after an unbelievably hot and dry summer over there, in which mid to upper 80s were often the norm (more than 15 degrees above the long-term average temperature). If this was a one-off anomaly that would be one thing. It’s not. For the most part, it’s been well above normal (hot and dry in summer) for the past 15 years over there.

          1. Global warming/climate change is now definitely firmly entrenched on our planet. Hard to believe that just as recently as the 1970’s there was talk of another ice age, if anything. Oh well.

  7. I would be curious as to how many school districts in this state are starting this month. I haven’t seen any school buses as of yet during my morning commutes so far. During the school year I see bunches of them while I’m waiting for my MBTA bus and while I’m riding to work. In fact, one morning awhile back the T bus just ahead of mine crashed into a school bus at the next intersection. It later made the tv news.

    I hope all of the teachers here at WHW are still able to continue a few more remaining days of summer vacation. 🙂

  11. WxW mentioning the PRE above made me recall the significant such event we had just ahead of Hurricane Belle in 1976. Boston area had more rain from that than they did from the storm.

  12. Tom – your school calendar makes sense to me. Uxbridge does also. Start after Labor Day and get out mid June if no snow days.

  13. I am all favor in school starting the day after Labor Day. I don’t like this go for a few days have a pause for Labor Day weekend and then start up again. If you start the day after Labor Day you get a stretch where school is not interrupted until Columbus Day weekend unless a school district has days off for the Jewish holidays. Most schools in CT start before Labor Day including where I live which goes to school Thursday and Friday. Down in Virginia I was told it is a state law that all schools start the day after Labor Day.

    1. Things must have changed in Virginia over the years because way back in the summer of 1974 (when President Nixon resigned) my cousin who was living there at the time spent part of the time with us here in Boston and I remember that he had to leave around mid-August or so because school started early. That is good if they now start after Labor Day.

      Same cousin now lives with his family in Warwick RI.

  14. Philip when I was down there on vacation the gentlemen I was talking to said the two biggest theme parks in Virginia Kings Dominion and Busch Gardens wanted school to start the day after Labor Day to get as much business as they can before the unofficial end of summer. The state agreed with their request and why it is law that all schools there start the day after Labor Day.

    1. With the hot summers there, makes perfect sense. Good that times have changed in the last 40+ years.

  15. Keith, thanks for the links, I finally got to read through them and posted a reply at top. Great stuff.

  16. Been busy with classes and all that started last week, been enjoying it though with the usual bumps in the road when it comes to moving. Anyway first time I had to get a hurricane prepardness stuff lol. I am happy I won’t be needing to use it lol. There are no warnings or watches up for the Virgin Islands despite the storm heading towards PR as its such a compact little storm.
    TK is there any chance of this thing come closer to the Virgin Islands.

  17. I didn’t see the 00z Euro, but the 12z at 96 hrs looks like it has Dorian hanging in there, just east of Florida.

  18. 12z EURO looks a little stronger with Dorian as it makes a landfall near West Palm Beach. Tropical Depression Six tracks southeast of 40N 70W by the time we get to Thursday morning.

  19. I can’t wait until we get into the December through March period and were asking did the 12z EURO increase snow totals instead of did the 12z EURO increase rain totals.

  20. 12z EURO has two landfalls in Florida for Dorian the one I mentioned earlier and the other in the Florida Panhandle.

  21. JP Dave… A PRE will form. Just not sure of its orientation quite yet. But whatever we get should take place mostly during the 5PM to 5AM window.

    Matt… I think the VI’s will not see much impact at all from that system down there.

    1. I saw that this morning. Too funny! Thanks for reminding me I wanted to share it to some fellow weather nutz on FB. 🙂

      Brad’s a good guy!

  25. TD6 upgraded to TS Erin, but based on all the meteorological knowledge I have, I firmly believe that this is still a TD.

    Pete Bouchard said the same thing on his 11PM weathercast.

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