Thursday Forecast

69 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
Transition from the feel of summer yesterday to the feel of fall occurs today as a cold front slips southward through the region, triggered showers and a few thunderstorms, and an additional period of rain in some areas as a disturbance rides along the front. This was the scenario talked about as a possibility several days ago (recall watching the September 12-13 period for a slow front and possible disturbance). Luckily the unsettled weather will all occur today and as high pressure builds out of eastern Canada Friday we’ll have a bright and brisk fall-like day as we count down through the late days of summer. And that summer feel will make a bit of a comeback this weekend as we get back into a southerly air flow as high pressure slides to the east of New England Saturday and a westerly flow Sunday behind a weak cold front which will come through as it trails low pressure passing north of the region Saturday night. The new high pressure area that builds in Sunday will be smaller and centered southwest of the area, hence the westerly wind, then join up with the departed high to the south to keep it fairly warm, but this will allow yet another cold front to slip southward out of Canada early Monday and high pressure behind that will drop the temperatures again during Monday as our temperature roller coaster goes on.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms favoring central and southern MA as well as eastern CT and RI morning. General showers or a period of rain midday and first half of afternoon, favoring MA/CT/RI. Highs 66-73 early morning, then temperatures falling through the 60s reaching 56-63 by late-day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH near the South Coast early otherwise shifting to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm mainly late-day. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible early, then partly cloudy. Moderately humid. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
High pressure will be dominant at upper levels through the period with surface high pressure shifting from north of the early at first, when it will be cooler/drier, to south of the region later, when it will turn warmer and somewhat more humid.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)
Pattern remains warm with high pressure aloft and surface high pressure to south at first, but disturbances coming along the jet stream as well as potential tropical moisture near the US East Coast will work on shifting the pattern to wetter and not quite as warm by mid or late period. This is low confidence in terms of any details so there will be a lot to work out as these days get closer.

69 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    2. Thanks TK! Was able to add you.

      Vicki – sent your a message on FB – it wouldn’t let me add you directly. If that doesn’t work search “Laurel Millette.” If there’s more than one mine has a pic of me ziplining in Costa Rica 🙂

  2. The take-away from the medium range models again is to just focus on the pattern that could bring tropical systems or tropical moisture close to the East Coast after September 20. I’m not focusing on any one low pressure area and its position, in terms of my blog forecast, but it’s surely fun to watch run-to-run. 🙂

  5. According to the news last night I thought the rain was this afternoon it’s pouring now in pembroke

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Rain commenced in the city right around 8 AM or a tad before. 🙂

    GFS continues the theme of a hurricane destined for the graveyard in the North
    Atlantic, however, the Euro remains most interesting with possibly 2 tropicals
    visiting the East coast, including one getting us and the other in a threatening\
    position.

    https://imgur.com/a/bqIPgO1

  8. Sadly, this is not the first time I’ve had to post an article like this. I post it not to be morose, but because it remains an extremely important subject and because in this case it has hit closer to home for me: Meteorologist Alex Herbst has passed away at 26. Alex was student body president my freshman year at Plymouth State. He was someone I really looked up to as a new student. Very charismatic, a natural leader. After graduating from Plymouth he later earned a Master’s from Mississippi State, a true rarity in the broadcast field, and was working at a TV station in the area. He was very well liked and looked to be a rising star in the field. And he was always smiling. We followed each other online, but weren’t close and hadn’t spoken in some time, so I am not reeling anywhere near as much as many in this close knit field this morning, and believe me this is a very hard morning for many. Still, it came as quite a shock to me.

    https://valleycentral.com/news/local/cbs-4-meteorologist-alex-herbst-dies-at-26

    Recent graduate broadcast meteorologists are frequently: grossly underpaid, working long and difficult hours, in a small market city they aren’t familiar with, with few friends in the area, and subject to baseless, scathing online criticism. It’s hard to imagine a more vulnerable position for a person, let alone a recent grad, to be put in. Some of these pains extend to other entry level meteorology jobs including NWS, but I really think the broadcast community has it worst.

    7. I am so sorry – what an enormous loss for meteorology as well as an unspeakable loss for his friends and family.

    8. Oh, WxWatcher, this is so horribly sad. A young man and rising star in his profession gone far too soon. I will keep all in my prayers.

  12. Thanks TK !

    I do like the rapid changes of September.

    A/C cranking yesterday, might be digging for a heavy sweatshirt tonight.

      1. The front has come through and the wind tunnel through our school shifted in the last hour!!!
        At 7:30, it was coming through my south facing windows and now it’s coming in through the classroom door!!!!! 🙂

  13. Good morning, everyone and thanks, TK…

    TK, what is the last name of the meteorologist (I think he is a friend, colleague or former classmate of yours) whose first name is Rob, is the president and chief forecaster of a weather service in Nashua and provides forecasts to local and national radio stations, including Bloomberg and WSAR in Fall River?

    You told me once last spring and I have lost the answer.

    Thanks!

  16. This disturbance before only had I believe between a 20%-30% chance to develop into something yesterday. The percentages ramped up in a big way today.

  17. Vicki – in case you miss my reply was above – I was able to find you on FB but couldn’t add you (maybe security setting) – so your turn to find me :-). Laurel Millette with a picture of me ziplining in Costa Rica 🙂

  18. If you look at the 0z EURO and I am going football on this one but it looks like whatever this becomes gets pushed back at the line of scrimmage from a strong defensive front into NJ. The strong defensive front is the high pressure ridge. Plenty of time to watch this and hopefully if this ends up on the eastern seaboard the strong defensive front won’t be as strong and whatever this becomes will be able to run through the hole and stay over the fish.

  20. 12Z GFS has no interest in the possible tropical development of that
    current disturbed area in the Central/Southern Bahamas. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I was just going to say that at 00Z, the Euro came east of Florida and at 6 and 12z , all the hurricane models came east of Florida.

      And, then, there is the GFS, as weak as it is, west of Florida.

      Reminds me of Isaac, in the reverse. Euro and all else west of Florida and GFS to the east.

      Guess which way Isaac ended up tracking?

  21. Interesting ….

    The 12z Euro is only to hr 120, but so far, looks rather similar to the 00z Euro and on that run, a hurricane went into southwest NJ.

        1. That’s 959MB, “could” be a CAT 3, High end 2 at best.

          Category 3 Hurricane
          Category 3 and above are considered major hurricanes. The maximum sustained wind speed is 111–129 mph. Damage from this category of hurricane is devastating:

          Mobile homes destroyed or heavily damaged
          Major damage to framed homes
          Many uprooted trees and blocked roads
          Complete power outages and unavailability of water for several days to weeks
          Coastal storm surge reaches 9–12 feet and the barometric pressure is approximately 964–945 millibars.

  22. As long as I’ve been paying attention to the euro, I can’t recall a run where it’s projected a hurricane to be that close to New England.

  23. Well perhaps according to last night’s news the rain was supposed to be this afternoon, but according to this morning’s blog, there were showers and embedded thunderstorms expected this morning as well. The afternoon stuff ended up under-performing as the dry air got in quickly and chomped it up.

    But this morning’s activity? No surprise here.

  26. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=car&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    So, a recon plane did a flight into the disturbed weather ESE of Florida.

    It appears to me the majority of the zig-zag flight was on the very southwest side of the cloud shield, indicating wind shear as the lowest pressure is removed from the thunderstorms.

    I think the greatest flight level wind they found was 25 knots or so. It doesn’t appear there’s a closed circulation yet.

    I think this translates to very slow development, at least in the next 24 to 36 hrs.

  27. So many moving parts to the atmosphere. It has to come together just right to get a direct hit. I don’t think the average person really understands how difficult it is at our geographical location to score a direct hit. I know all of us here on the blog understand this, but it truly is amazing on what needs to take place. Just fuels my fascination with weather.

  29. FTR, the Euro’s depiction of Humberto actually has it as a strong tropical storm at its closest pass to New England.

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