Saturday Forecast

52 Comments

8:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
A weak cold front approach the region today and pass through tonight and very early Sunday. This front will produce plenty of cloudiness but limited shower activity, although a few of the showers that form south of Boston during the late night hours may be on the heavy side. High pressure builds in Sunday, but it will be a warm day. In fact it will be one of those instances because of today’s cloud cover and tomorrow’s modified air mass that the air behind a cold front will actually be warmer than the air ahead of it for most of the region. A disturbance will cross New England Monday morning and midday and drag a stronger cold front through. This system will bring a shower threat as well. High pressure builds in behind that with great weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing showers mid-day on. More humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing showers, trending toward the South Coast where a few may be heavy. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Clouds and showers may linger Cape Cod and Islands early, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm morning-midday. Gradual clearing north to south afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind W 10-15 MPH shifting to N with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy valley, swamp, and bog fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50, coolest interior valleys. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)
High pressure surface and aloft will provide fair weather and above normal temperatures and, as it looks now, will keep tropical activity to the south and east of New England. The end of the period may cool slightly as a new high pressure area arrives via eastern Canada. Rainfall will be very limited and possibly non-existent during this period. We may need to watch for increased fire danger as we’ve been rather dry since the start of August.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)
This remains a lower than average confidence forecast due to still some unknown potential tropical weather factors and their direct or indirect impact on the larger scale pattern. For now, going to delay the onset of cooling and keep an overall mild to warm outlook with better opportunities for showers at times. Many stages of fine-tuning to come.

52 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

      1. I had the same thought. They sprayed last night and night before around us. Didn’t get to our area yet. Makes me wonder since it has been in lower 50s each night

        As an aside. I’m on season 3 episode 10 of heartland. Am taking a short break. I can only binge watch for so long.

  6. Thanks TK
    Hopefully if we could continue having cool nights and mild days the fall colors will be great this year.

    1. Our “warm” nights will be limited. It’s been dry since August, so some of the older trees may stress a bit but overall this season’s show will surpass last season’s.

  7. Thanks TK. Chilly morning… Then I think to December and January when the body is used to cold weather and this temperature feels hot! lol

    1. I love the relativity. I still recall that muggy, tropical day in January when it was in the 60s. 😉

  8. That Monday disturbance may be very vigorous as it dives ESE across New England. That’s why I included the possibility of thunder. If it were winter we would maybe see some heavy duty snow squalls. 😉

    2. Just lovely. My daughter was more than upset that she could not go outside for photos….both due to EEE and spraying

    1. I saw this on FB. Very interesting. I’m trying to recall the last below freezing Labor Day weekend morning I was in Rangeley. I think it would have been 1974. We headed out to fish with winter jackets.

        1. Pretty much the typical for down there. Hot and oppressively humid with scattered showers and storms. 90 degrees with heat index over 100.

  12. Thanks TK.

    Dry is definitely the operative word for the pattern we’re in, and has been for several weeks now. The wet conditions most of the year before August mean that even now we’re far from experiencing a true drought. However, with the pattern now looking to turn even drier, if nothing else as TK has mentioned we’ll have to start watching the fire danger, as factors affecting fire weather are still sensitive to short term dryness. This will be especially true as we head towards leaf drop and get into “wind season”. Beyond that, we’ll just have to see if the pattern reverses in the coming weeks and months to determine if these will remain short term issues or if drought is something we may have to contend with in earnest heading towards 2020. Drought isn’t typically much of a concern in the cooler months, but if we do have a dry fall and winter then it can sneak up quickly heading into the next warm season.

    1. It’s amazing how quickly conditions change, especially in New England. Last year, Taunton had 70+” of record-breaking precipitation, and now, I am mowing a mostly brown lawn. I guess that’s why I/we love studying and following the weather! 🙂

  13. and like that the models shows what might have impacted us here in the Virgin ISlands to travel well northeast of us if it forms at all.

    1. This is why I cautioned to toss the medium range models regarding these. They are horrendous. The GFS was especially bad the other day.

  14. Bermuda looks to sustain a decent hit from a strengthening Humberto. 12z GFS and CMC track the center just north of the island while the ICON has a direct hit with a 939mb hurricane.

    1. Gonna go with NHC’s track shifted about 30 miles north as it passes the island. Heavy rainsqualls, but spared anything too nasty.

    2. From what I can tell, Bermuda seems to be the only nation in the Caribbean that quickly recovers from hurricanes with little fanfare. Hopefully that will continue and Humberto passes north instead.

      2. Bermuda has a little more coming in from the UK (it’s an Overseas Territory) so recovery may have something to do with that.

          1. Very minor today Matt…this is from Wikipedia “The Royal Naval dockyard and the attendant military garrison were closed during the 1950s. A small supply base, HMS Malabar, continued to operate within the Dockyard until it, too, was closed, along with the American and Canadian bases, in 1995. The US bases closed on 1 September of that year, but unresolved issues—primarily related to environmental factors—delayed the formal return of the base lands to the Government of Bermuda, which finally occurred in 2002. The only military units remaining in Bermuda, today, are the Bermuda Regiment, an amalgam of the voluntary units formed in the 19th century, and army and naval cadet corps”

  17. Thanks TK !

    Very pleasant surprise up to this point with nearly full sun down at Scusset beach area. Temps have responded nicely as well.

    A bit thicker cloud cover now gathering to our west-northwest.

  18. All I can say is that I’m glad that my windows are closed at home due to the recent coolness. I’m here at work.

        1. The rain only lasted a short time. And we’re getting borderline dangerously dry. We need any rain we can get.

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