Monday Forecast

40 Comments

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
The waning summer will deliver some of the best weather we’ve had all season, but we often see that in September, which is one of the nicest months in New England. There are 2 bumps in an otherwise smooth weather road this week, the first being a disturbance passing through the region today that may kick off a shower. This system is faster-moving and weaker than I originally thought it would be. The second is a cold front that slides down the coast from the northeast early Wednesday and may introduce a period of cloudiness and brief shower/drizzle with just enough moisture available. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal as high pressure will be centered north of the region through Thursday, but as the center sinks to the south a quick warm-up is in the cards for the end of the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy with a few showers possible through midday, then clearing north to south. Highs 67-74. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy valley, swamp, and bog fog. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds arrive NH Seacoast and MA East Coast toward dawn with a possible shower or period of drizzle. Lows 43-50, coolest interior valleys. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds to start, especially eastern MA and southeastern NH, then sun increases. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog in low-lying interior locations. Lows 47-54. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)
The September 21-22 weekend, the last of the summer, looks like it will represent well with dry weather and above normal temperatures. Hurricane Humberto will have just made its closest pass to New England about 600 miles offshore, much to far for any direct weather impact, but close enough to send some larger ocean swells to the New England Coast during the weekend – keep that in mind of sneaking in one more round of beach or boating. A couple disturbances from the west may bring a round or 2 of showers during the September 23-25 period, but overall it will still be on the dry side with temperatures averaging above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)
Staying with a slow transition, still on the milder side, but better opportunities for showers at times heading into late September as the jet stream sinks to the south to send more disturbances this way while a high pressure ridge tries to hang on to the south and east of New England.

40 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  7. Thank you, TK.

    One of my favorite Ocasek memories is this ditty, apparently written by Ric in 1977, but not recorded until 1981. The song, like The Cars, was way ahead of its time. Elliot Easton’s guitar solo is spectacular. But, we shouldn’t forget Greg Hawkes’ work on synthesizer

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eq-yoorI7lo

  8. Pete B on Twitter.

    Weather systems in the Pacific are clearly wearing the pants in the weather pattern over N. America. Deep storm in the Aleutians next week forces colder air into the East. May spell the end of the warm days
    – after next weekend.

    1. I certainly respect Pete’s opinion, but I don’t know if I agree with that.

      The CFS weeklies are featuring pretty warm anomolies covering 2 to 4 weeks from now. The op runs of the EURO and GFS look mild to warm in the long range.

      3. It’s why he says “may” 😉 However, I am uncharacteristically frustrated not being able to sit out at night and am ready for snow….. too soon??

        1. Much too soon ! 🙂 🙂

          I could see some inland locations have an upper 30s temp right at sunrise Thursday morning though.

            1. We do need that anomolous one in a hundred year cold airmass to give that overnight freeze weeks before the average date to kill the mosquitos.

  9. From Judah…..

    The #snow cover advance season is off to a start fast and this trend will likely continue as high pressure centered near the North Pole will force lower pressure over the northern continents with more snow predicted for #Siberia, Alaska, #Canada and even possibly the Northern US.

  11. The rumor around the city and social media is that the state’s 8th EEE victim is from Taunton, not too far from my home. It hasn’t been confirmed yet, but the report did say NE Bristol County.

  13. Regarding the Tweet of Pete: He’s probably right, but delay a pattern change by about a week from whatever the GFS shows now. You see, the GFS thinks we’re going to cycle though the ridge one more time (this weekend) but we are probably going to cycle through it 2 more times (this weekend & later next week). After that, we may be open to pattern change. It would have come sooner if Humberto was further west and moving more to the north. That could have had more influence on the synoptic scale pattern running into it broadside. Instead it’s going to merge gently into traffic and have little impact.

    Regarding Judah’s news: I had noted this about the snowcover 2 weeks ago when they had a very early snowstorm in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada. However, putting cold air in the East, which I think we may do fairly easily this October through December, does not necessarily translate to putting a lot of snow in the East. You still need precipitation to coincide with favorable cold, and that may be hard to come by.

    2. Thanks TK. It seems the mid-Atlantic had favorable cold at all the right times but we didn’t.

      In the meantime, this is a great late summer day! Wish it could last…

      1. This could be that type of pattern if we end up on the colder side of the fence. I’m not convinced we stay there. We may start there, then move.

  15. Ryan Hanrahan‏Verified account @ryanhanrahan · 2h2 hours ago

    Wouldn’t be surprised to see some frost Thursday AM in the outlying areas of the state. It’s still summer though! #nbcct

  18. In the FWIW category, I just took a look at the latest CFS weeklies and monthlies initialized earlier today.

    The weeklies show near to above normal temps through late October with near to below normal precip except the last week in Sept which is showing above normal precip.

    The monthlies are showing:

    October: above normal temps, near normal precip
    November: near normal temps, below normal precip
    December: near to above normal temps, below normal precip
    January: normal temps, normal precip
    February: near to below normal temps, below normal precip
    March: below normal temps, near normal precip
    April: below normal temps , near to below normal precip

    Fairly dry overall but actually showing the winter trending colder the second half.

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