Tuesday Forecast

42 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)
Upper level low pressure will cross the region today, and while we won’t feel the summerlike heat of yesterday, it will still be warm at the surface, contrasted with colder air aloft, and that will make it unstable, so clouds will pop up and a few showers/thunderstorms likely result. Not everybody gets them, but brief heavy downpours may occur sometime this afternoon to very early evening. High pressure builds in tonight and Wednesday with tranquil weather, then the high slides offshore and a quick warm-up occurs Thursday, with another cold front possibly bringing a brief shower at night before another high pressure area builds in with slightly cooler weather for Friday. This high, like its predecessor, will move offshore and allow another warm-up for Saturday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouds depart Cape Cod early. Sunshine elsewhere into mid morning then a sun/cloud mix late morning on. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs 73-80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a passing shower. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)
The upper pattern will see the high pressure ridge, still centered in the Midwest, try to bubble east again, which keeps the overall pattern dry, but again we’ll see some temperature ups and downs, though the tendency for this 5-day period will likely be the warmer side of normal. Some details remain uncertain in terms of wind direction and specific temperatures, which will be fine-tuned.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)
The upper ridge is expected to back-up more toward the Plains leaving the Northeast in a more west to east upper level low, but one or two intrusions of much cooler air from Canada are going to be more possible, the timing of which is uncertain at this time. It may become a little more unsettled near the boundary of this chilly air to the north and warmer air still to the south, but it does not look like we’ll be diving into a wet pattern either.

42 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. Thunder with vivid lightning slipped just east of Sutton around 1:00 am. A blurry eyed look at radar showed it traveling Sw to NE

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A mere 0.16 inch at my house overnight.

    re: Today
    It feels pretty warm out there for sure. We shall see IF some of that liquid
    gold falls over my house. I doubt it!

    Did anyone see MOOKIE’s throw last night? Must have been 300 feet on the fly, give or take. He threw out the runner attempting to go from 1st to 3rd. AWESOME!!

    SIGN MOOKIE!!!

    1. I agree re : Mookie, however, I think if they offered him $280 million, ($35 million per year for 8 years), he would give them his standard line of I am going to the free agent market.

      Can’t let that happen, lose him and get nothing in return.

      With Devers having emerged, I’m in favor of seeing what clubs will offer, which won’t be great because who is going to trade for him, if he won’t sign a long term extension.

      I think the Red Sox don’t have a lot of leverage here.

      1. The Red Sox have a bad habit of screwing themselves over.
        I hope this one works out, but I don’t have a good feeling.

    2. Trade him for prospects this off season. Its a bad financial move to allocated that much cap to one position / person. Our farm system is in shambles and need to be rebuilt around what we have. Dever’s having a great season but lets see what he does the next two years.

      Mookie should have been traded after the world series last year.

      1. I’m not sure I agree with this.
        IF they can’t sign him, best get something for him ASAP before
        it is too late.

  7. Thank you, TK…
    0.52 of rain overnight and 63 degrees heading out the door.

    After looking at the models, is there a sign of the first hard freeze in the near future?
    The third state death as a result of EEE was reported this morning, the 10th case in Massachusetts.

    With sunsets getting earlier and earlier, our fall sports are being affected. The town will not allow games/practices after sunset.

    Is there a hard freeze soon according to today’s model runs???

  8. TK, you called it 10-14 days ago: You said the persistent ridging – which results in those areas of high pressure sliding to our south and east – will last through the month and into early October. Several mets at the time said “one more warm-up.” They were wrong.

    It’s too warm for me. But, I know other beg to differ. I’m ready for a hard freeze. That won’t happen until November, which actually is the norm in Boston anyway.

    On Mookie, I agree with Coastal. The farm system is in a state of disrepair, which a Mookie trade could partly fix. I don’t think he wants to be here anyway. The Sox are headed for a couple of bridge years, I believe. Their pitching talent level is so sub-par.

    1. The only part of Mookie for which I agree is that HE DOESN’T WANT TO BE HERE. Thus it would likely take TOO MUCH MONEY to sign him.

  10. Thanks TK.

    0.20″ of rain last night in Coventry and an even 3.00″ on the month of September. May still make average on the month with a few well timed/placed showers this week despite the drier pattern in place.

    1. I”ll be up there next weekend (10/4-6). Depending on which model run you look at it, there is potential for a decent cold shot up and even some elevation snow in the Whites. Hoping whatever happens, that boundary will not be draped across NNE creating unsettled weather. Its one of the few opportunities I have this Fall to get up there to do some hiking.

  12. I’ll need to see the 12z EURO …. with that said, currently, 80F or low 80s, I think I even saw ch 4 had an 84F for Saturday, are, in my opinion, underdone.

    850mb temps at 18C all day from Boston points south and east. Cold front looks to be lagging to the NW, probably eastern and southeastern Mass would be in sunshine, like yesterday, ahead of the front.

    Of course, if the front speeds up, forget the above logic. But if the front comes through very late day, it will be warmer than currently projected for Saturday.

      1. Well, about 240 hrs + out is a brief shot of -5C, 850mb air.

        That, if verified, would be highs in the 50s. If high pressure crested overhead at night following a day in the 50s, I could see the colder low, lying locations getting down to 28F or 30F for one night. (Taunton, Norwood, etc)

        We’ll have to follow and see if the models show that cool of a shot once the time period gets to the mid and short range.

        Cant you see New England receiving 90F heat either Oct 2nd or 3rd and then having areas in some southern areas seeing sub freezing temps on the night of the 5th and 6th 🙂

        1. It’s coming…
          We could go from highs in the mid to upper 80s approaching or touching 90 to highs around 50.
          Gotta love it.

          1. I like it to stay mild, but these above average temps really add another element to the school day. The first few weeks of school were so nice, the last 2 days, I’m exhauseted from the warmth. So a real cool shot with a cold night or 2 to cool the buildings again would be superb !!

  14. While it’s dry and quite warm here, the Netherlands (and the British Isles) have been impacted by a succession of Atlantic lows. The southwesterly prevails there, as you know, in all seasons. However, persistent Scandinavian high pressure areas blocked these Atlantic lows much of the summer. But, recently high pressure has been displaced by lows dotting the map everywhere in northwestern Europe. I recall this being the time of year in Holland when the daily weather forecast was very predictable: “cloudy with periods of rain, 62F, southwesterly wind at 18mph, with gusts up to 28mph.” Day in, day out, often for weeks at a time. It just so happens – well, not really, the weather pattern in the Pacific Northwest and Holland are very similar – that it’s been raining in Seattle, too, with temps in the low 60s.

    1. It just fascinates me that parts of Arizona can be so green. We mostly think
      of Arizona and this putridly,dry, barren land.

      Of course, we know this is due to ALTITUDE, but even so, pretty cool.

  17. Tree color still coming along nicely considering it’s September. This is definitely the earliest in many years that I can recall especially here in Boston. I hope this is a sign of an early winter. 🙂

    1. It’s a big season for acorns. I don’t believe there’s any weather-related meaning attached to that. But, perhaps there is.

  18. Tom alluded to this earlier, but that is a cold look on the 18z GFS around 240 hours (next Friday 10/4 into the weekend of the 10/5-6) with some mountain and lake effect snow showers to boot….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019092418&fh=240

    Widespread 30’s in SNE that Sat AM and 20’s up north…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019092418&fh=258

    There is some decent support for this on the CMC and EPS as well.

  21. Go back to October 1979 where Windsor Locks CT had an F4 tornado and a week later 1.7 inches of snow fell. You could get some big swings in the weather pattern in October.

  22. Mark, thank you for sending the model map for 10 days from now. To see blue on there (ie, snow) makes my evening. Of course, it may not happen. For all we know it’ll be 90F on Saturday the 5th of October. But, I am hoping for some cold relief.

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